Can Alabamas defense stop Ohio State??

[ralphiewvu]

Probably not, I see Cooper running circles around our secondary

Good luck with Yeldon and Henry too. They are a God damn handful.

 

[Sgt Brutus]

Good luck with Yeldon and Henry too. They are a God damn handful.

Yeah our defense doesn't leave me confident at all. Best bet is to outscore but who knows how Cardale will play

 

[rmilia1]

The better question might be can OSU stop Bama's offense. OSU is ranked 4th, while Bama is ranked 8th. I give the edge to Bama because of better defensive opponents.

This seems logical but it isnt true. OSU actually played the vastly better defenses ( 6 of their 13 opponents ranked in the top 35 in total D comapred to only 4 for Bama AND OSU also played 5 games vs teams with top 15 defenses compared to only 2 for Bama ) actually the average defensive rank for OSU opponents if 48.5 while Bamas is 67.5. I was surprised by that since the SEC has such a defensive reputation.

 

[rmilia1]

Maybe even more interestingly in their 6 games vs top 35 defenses OSU scored 39 ppg, this compares to Bama which averaged 21 ppg in their 4 games vs top 35 D's... To go one step further OSU averaged 40. 6 ppg vs TOP 15 defenses!! Bama scored 18.5 vs the TOP 15 defenses they played. Thats a pretty staggering gap.

 

[Mike30142]

Statistically, you are right, but you have to look at the quality of opponents in regard to their conference.

 

[Bamabino]

This thread needs an SEC attitudinal adjustment factor. Just like in horse racing, Grade I, Grade II, etc., and dog racing, Class A,B,C, etc. Bama is A class, Ohio is D Class. Adjust stats accordingly.

 

[rmilia1]

Statistically, you are right, but you have to look at the quality of opponents in regard to their conference.

Fair enough and that point would be more valid if the numbers were close, They really arent. Im not saying OSU is going to roll or even that they are going to win ( I picked Bama by 7, 42-35 ) but the numbers do point to the possibility that Bama is not going to be able to stop OSU. If the Buckeyes take care of the ball this should be a very interesting game.

 

[Mike30142]

Bamabino is right. Let's take Penn State, they are rated #2 defensively in the nation. But then consider their opponents. Ohio State is 29th in the same conference.

Bama is 20th, but faced arguably a much tougher schedule.

 

[Mike30142]

OK, they had the big game vs Wisconsin with the 3rd string quarterback, but you are basing your argument on the season as a whole, with a different quarterback.

We'll see.

 

[night]

I'm calling it now it will be a defensive game with a low score.

 

[4down20]

Alabama 2014 FPI - Crimson Tide - ESPN

Ohio State 2014 FPI - Buckeyes - ESPN

In FPI efficency:

Offense: Alabama #4, Ohio St #5
Defense: Alabama #12, Ohio St #24

Special teams Ohio St I guess has an advantage, but I'm not sure how big of a deal that is. I'm assuming that is return yards, because JK Scott flips the field often etc.

And FWIW, Penn St:

Penn State 2014 FPI - Nittany Lions - ESPN

Offense: #116
Defense: #7

 

[Sgt Brutus]

I'm calling it now it will be a defensive game with a low score.

Ballsy call, you gonna put money on the under then?

 

[night]

Ballsy call, you gonna put money on the under then?

Depends on what the under is I suppose. The only line I can find is the point spread and they have Alabama -9 vs Ohio State +9. If I was going to bet on the point spread I'd probably take Ohio State because I doubt the difference between the two will be that high.

 

[rmilia1]

I'm calling it now it will be a defensive game with a low score.

Probably 6-4 or something.. LOL

 

[night]

Having Urban as the head coach with experience (he has also beaten Saban in a "play in" game before) against Saban will be the biggest difference.

 

[night]

Probably 6-4 or something.. LOL

...and the team with 6 points got 3 safeties vs 2 safeties!

 

[Clayton]

I think Ohio St can get the big plays. Its the little plays that they'll struggle with unless they get turnovers.

Basically they need to do what they did to Wisconsin.

 

[4down20]

More advanced stats:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FEI COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS 2014

DFEI

Alabama: #5, Ohio St #12, Penn St #9

OFEI
Alabama: #5, Ohio St #9, Penn St #106

It's pretty close really. Alabama on paper should win and would be favored in a rematch even if Ohio St won the first time. But it's really going to depend largely on how well the teams are playing that day and how things matchup player to player.

 

[rmilia1]

More advanced stats:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FEI COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS 2014

DFEI

Alabama: #5, Ohio St #12, Penn St #9

OFEI
Alabama: #5, Ohio St #9, Penn St #106

It's pretty close really. Alabama on paper should win and would be favored in a rematch even if Ohio St won the first time. But it's really going to depend largely on how well the teams are playing that day and how things matchup player to player.

Yep the total stats are very close. I do not think either D will contain the other teams offense for any extended period of time. The spread is WAYYY too much IMO. Should be closer to 4 or 5 at the most.

 

[Mike30142]

Yep the total stats are very close. I do not think either D will contain the other teams offense for any extended period of time. The spread is WAYYY too much IMO. Should be closer to 4 or 5 at the most.

Bet the farm on OSU.