2014 over / under win totals

[WhiteMamba]

Arizona 6 even

ASU 9 even

Cal 3.5 under

Colorado 2.5 over

Oregon 10.5 over

OSU 7.5 over

UCLA 8.5 over

USC 8.5 under

Stanford 7.5 over

Utah 4.5 under

Washington 9 (play 13 games) under

WSU 4.5 over

 

[Codaxx]

Big shock there.

-
jsut odds. 10.5 is a big number for OU. They can easily lose a game. I would have set the line at 10. Damn, I thought you had ND on the schedule. That is a bit easier than I thought. KSU, Baylor, and OSU all at home. TCU will be an interesting game. I might have to revise looking at the schedule, much more favorable than I thought.

I have Texas winning UNT, BYU (home), Kansas, ISU,@ TTU, and WV. The rest is UCLA, Baylor, OU, @ KSU, TCU.. I think they win 2 of of those 5. I dont think that is crazy..

I KSU winning. Stephen Austin, ISU, UTEP, TEch, WV, and Kansas. Just needs 1 win from Auburn, @OU, @ TCU, @ Baylor.. 1-3 in those seems reasonable. Let me know if you actually disagree.

 

[WizardHawk]

Arizona 6 even
ASU 9 even
Cal 3.5 under
Colorado 2.5 over
Oregon 10.5 over
OSU 7.5 over
UCLA 8.5 over
USC 8.5 under
Stanford 7.5 over
Utah 4.5 under
Washington 9 (play 13 games) under
WSU 4.5 over

uh oh, you picked a couple of your rivals for the over. You are likely to be jumped on by the team SEC apologists for it.

Not shocked you picked UW for under. I already laid out their path to 9 and what needs to happen. They get 6 wins just for their OOC, Cal, and Colorado. If they can beat WSU and Oregon State (home) they reach 8. Win any of Stanford, @Fucks, ASU, UCLA, or @Zona and they reach 9. 9 this year is akin to 8 last year and likely still an easier path to reach it based on no real challenge in OOC.

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

just put Nebraska at 9 and Id take that considering their past...The B1G West will be pretty entertaining this year with Wisconsin, Brasky and Iowa...I can see one of these three with a big year

 

[occupant]

Baylor 9 - OVER

ISU 3.5 - OVER

Kansas 2.5 - UNDER

Kansas St 6.5 - UNDER

Oky 10.5 - OVER

Oky jr 7.5 - UNDER

TCU 8 - UNDER

Texas 7.5 - UNDER

Tex Tech 6.5 - OVER

West VA 3 - OVER

b o o m

 

[WABLTY]

Utah over and probably Stanford over would be the only ones I'd actually put money on if I still put money on games. Utah 5+ wins seems pretty likely to me.

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

there's no such thing as "half" a game, but none-the-less, I'll take the over on Clemson @ 8.5.

 

[rmilia1]

In the B10 I like Iowa, MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, OSU, Purdue to go OVER
NW, Indiana, Putgers, Maryland, Michigan, Illinois to go under
Minnesota and PSU to push

 

[TexasExes98]

IF Iowa wins less than 9 games this year then the entire staff should be fired, the players all expelled, the cheerleaders beaten with canes and the mascot plucked and roasted. For real.

Don't kid yourself. If Iowa wins less than 9 games this year, Ferentz gets another raise.

 

[WestEndVol]

Tennessee will make a bowl game this year. Where Auburn has had all the good luck from 2010-2013, Tennessee has had AWFUL luck. That changes this year. 7-5 at least.

I sure hope so, I mean Auburn went from 3-9 to playing in the NC the following year. I don't think it's a stretch to believe that Tennessee will improve a game or two.

 

[pennstatenut]

I will take the over on Texas and KSU. Under on OU

What a shocking prediction.

 

[HuskerinBig10]

Illinois 4.5 under

Ind 5.5 under

Iowa 8.5 over

Maryland 5.5 under

Mich 8.5 under

MSU 8.5 over

Minn 6 even

Nebraska 8 over 9-3

NWestern 7.5 under

TOSU 10.5 over

PEnn st 7 over

Purdue 2.5 under

Rutgers 4.5 under

Wisky 10 even

No idea who their OOCs are.

Under - seven teams Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan
Even - two teams Wisconsin, Minnesota
Over - five teams Penn State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa

Both Rutgers and Maryland got the same welcome to the B1G package like Nebraska did.

 

[7Samurai13]

No idea who their OOCs are.

Under - seven teams Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan
Even - two teams Wisconsin, Minnesota
Over - five teams Penn State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa

Both Rutgers and Maryland got the same welcome to the B1G package like Nebraska did.

Except Rutgers and Maryland are going to be stuck playing Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State every single year. Nebraska is going to be on the Alabama schedule of once every 5 years for each school now.

 

[Codaxx]

What a shocking prediction.

You are the second person to say this. I listed some reasons already, but the OU call is more than blind hate.
1. OU- finished 20+ in both FEI and S&P+ last year. That is outlier considering the 10-2 finish. It implies they were very lucky to win 10 games
2. I looked and they had some extremely good luck. Recovered over 70%+ of there own fumbles and almost 65% of opponents. Those are some extreme numbers and probably added 25-35 pts to their margin of victory.

So I am left wondering if OU is simply a Big 12 favorite or a NC contender. I am doubting the later as there is a reversion to the mean in their luck. Calling for less than 11 wins is hardly ballsy if you have an evidence questioning the team.

 

[occupant]

1. OU- finished 20+ in both FEI and S&P+ last year. That is outlier considering the 10-2 finish. It implies they were very lucky to win 10 games

Please pardon my ignorance...but what is a FEI/S&P+? Did they have anything to do with us choking against Derp or beating the pachyderm shit out of 'Bama?

2. I looked and they had some extremely good luck. Recovered over 70%+ of there own fumbles and almost 65% of opponents. Those are some extreme numbers and probably added 25-35 pts to their margin of victory.

Well...I don't know how you're predicting future luck...but I'd like some! I would hope that the opponents fumbles were at least indirectly caused by an OU player.

So I am left wondering if OU is simply a Big 12 favorite or a NC contender. I am doubting the later as there is a reversion to the mean in their luck. Calling for less than 11 wins is hardly ballsy if you have an evidence questioning the team.

Oh we're both I'm thinking. The only person that would attribute luck to a team's overall success would be a hater. "Evidence" or not. I thought for sure we wouldn't be a 10 win team after Landry left...I was proven wrong.

There is plenty of evidence that we will win at least 11 games in 2014.

 

[Codaxx]

Please pardon my ignorance...but what is a FEI/S&P+? Did they have anything to do with us choking against Derp or beating the pachyderm shit out of 'Bama?



Well...I don't know how you're predicting future luck...but I'd like some! I would hope that the opponents fumbles were at least indirectly caused by an OU player.



Oh we're both I'm thinking. The only person that would attribute luck to a team's overall success would be a hater. "Evidence" or not. I thought for sure we wouldn't be a 10 win team after Landry left...I was proven wrong.

There is plenty of evidence that we will win at least 11 games in 2014.

Forced fumbles have shown correlation. Recoveries tend to be a dunction of luck and over time tend to be around 50%. Luck in the sense that some seasons ball bounves towards you and the next its away. Teams get lucky or unlucky all the time. Not sure how that is a tough concept.

 

[occupant]

Not sure how that is a tough concept.

Whatever helps you sleep at night Bunkee.

"OU IS GONNA LOSE MORE GAMES THIS YEAR CUZ LAST YEAR ALL THEIR FUMBLES MAGICKALLY CAME BACK TO THEM BUT THIS YEAR THERE WON"T BE AS MUCH MAGICK..."

 

[Codaxx]

Whatever helps you sleep at night Bunkee.

"OU IS GONNA LOSE MORE GAMES THIS YEAR CUZ LAST YEAR ALL THEIR FUMBLES MAGICKALLY CAME BACK TO THEM BUT THIS YEAR THERE WON"T BE AS MUCH MAGICK..."

I actually never said more games. It is has been prove in multiple studies that fumble recoveries are a bit of luck. Just think about it. Footballs take odd bounces. Sometimes they bounce back into the hands of the offense, sometimes they take a bounce to a defender. There really is no way to coach or control that.

Just to illustrate:
2009: 42%
2010: 26%
2011: 76%
2012: 45%
2013: 28%

average: 43.4%

2009: 52%
2010: 46%
2011: 60%
2012: 42%
2013: 65%

average 53%

again I do not think it is major statement saying OU enjoyed some very good turnover luck last yr.

 

[occupant]

again I do not think it is major statement saying OU enjoyed some very good turnover luck last yr.

 

[The Crimson King]

Whatever helps you sleep at night Bunkee.

"OU IS GONNA LOSE MORE GAMES THIS YEAR CUZ LAST YEAR ALL THEIR FUMBLES MAGICKALLY CAME BACK TO THEM BUT THIS YEAR THERE WON"T BE AS MUCH MAGICK..."

he claims the same thing about auburn. No more 'luck'