Young QB debate - RWill stats vs ALuck stats

[HaroldSeattle]

The O is going to be
more wide open and thus duplicate of 2012 would be disappointing.

I don't have the cite, but Carroll has said a number of times the offense is NOT going to be more wide open.[/QUOTE]

Seahawks are going to continue to be a run first team, however I believe they'll be more creative with the passing game and not be quite as stubborn about running the ball. if it's not going well.

Just seeing what they do with the offense has got me excited even for preseason games and camp.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

The O is going to be
more wide open and thus duplicate of 2012 would be disappointing.

I don't have the cite, but Carroll has said a number of times the offense is NOT going to be more wide open.

I hope you're incorrect. I can't see the Hawks having the fewest pass attempts in 2013. We have
the personnel to dominate but running the clock in the 1st half is a reason we ended up losing against
Miami and Detroit besides a last minute D meltdown. RWilson bailed the Hawks out vs the Pats, the
Bears and his heroics (385 passing yds against Atlanta) almost bailed us out vs the Falcons.

If Pete and Bevell don't learn from 2012, then we could be in trouble of going all the way. While we
were gashed in the run game vs Turner and Atlanta, it was the conservative play calling in the 1st
half that was our undoing. You can't run Fullback dive plays on 4th and 1 on the 10 yd when
both RWill and Lynch could've walked into the endzone.

We will still be a pound the rock squad but a 60/40 split is excessive when you have a QB as
talented as RWilson, who proved he can put a team on his back and win football games with
critical 4th qtr comebacks. With this O, it shouldn't come down to that if we open it up more in
the 1st half.

I think the schedule and opponents will, ultimately, dictate how often RWill passes. Games against
ya'll twice where we can exploit you through the air, shootout games vs the Saints and Falcons,
at the Giants and road games vs Indy and Houston. If we expect to just run the ball 60%, we're
going to cost us games that are winnable when if we attack, attack, attack and then we'll have the
luxury of pounding the ball down op's throats. It needs to start in week 1 vs Carolina, too.

I've never been a proponent of pounding the ball to set up the pass.
It's just as effective to run play action and pass to loosing up the D to pound Lynch.

We have the personnel to kick serious @$$ in 2013. Now it comes down to the timely play calls
that allow our personnel to execute. We have a new D-Co that's going to be blitz aggressive, now it
needs to translate to our O. Leads = ability to bring the kitchen sink on D and bury teams.

The mantra shouldn't be Hawks on 3. It should be Jugular on 3. Quality play calling on both sides =
SuperBowl for the Hawks. Anything less is likely to lead to disappointment and calling for the head
of DBevell.

 

[FirebreathingMonkey]

almost bailed us out vs the Falcons.

If Pete and Bevell don't learn from 2012, then we could be in trouble of going all the way. While we
were gashed in the run game vs Turner and Atlanta, it was the conservative play calling in the 1st
half that was our undoing. You can't run Fullback dive plays on 4th and 1 on the 10 yd when
both RWill and Lynch could've walked into the endzone.

I think the main reason we lost the ALt game came down to turnovers in the first half, I think it was two or three, Lynch throw-up the ball at midfield, which if those had turned into points would/could have changed the whole game. Also could point to taking the lead too early and trying to milk the clock more, or the time out. But nothing angered me more than 4th and one.

I hated that play mainly because I was able to call it out before they even lined up. I think they used it against SF, they used it against the rams, and Washington. Once in a blue moon it might have worked but if the other team watched any film before the game they would have know we had fallen in love with that play. It bug the hell out me. Image if we had scored a field goal or a td on the drive.

 

[CakesW]

Like I said... the guy was nearly perfect in 2012, and many of you expect him to be "More than perfect" - I just don't see it happening. I expect him to be great again... I just don't expect him to exceed those numbers... he set the bar pretty high, and thats a good thing.

The fact that the offense will "open up more" definately puts him at risk of failing to exceed 2012. Especially in light of the fact that the Seahawks were a Run First team in 2012, and his passing definately complimented it to the Nth degree.

You start to open it up more, you are more likely to make mistakes. It is just what it is...

Like I said... not a knock...

Saying a QB is going to probably be a 100 Rating passer isn't a knock AT ALL...

Hell.. I'd KILL to have one even reach 85 ! Let alone 100.

 

[SonnyCID]

Like I said... the guy was nearly perfect in 2012, and many of you expect him to be "More than perfect" - I just don't see it happening. I expect him to be great again... I just don't expect him to exceed those numbers... he set the bar pretty high, and thats a good thing.

The fact that the offense will "open up more" definately puts him at risk of failing to exceed 2012. Especially in light of the fact that the Seahawks were a Run First team in 2012, and his passing definately complimented it to the Nth degree.

You start to open it up more, you are more likely to make mistakes. It is just what it is...

Like I said... not a knock...

Saying a QB is going to probably be a 100 Rating passer isn't a knock AT ALL...

Hell.. I'd KILL to have one even reach 85 ! Let alone 100.

I think most of the other poster's point is that the 100 rating is an average that included some very weak games early in the year. I dont think he'll have many more games like that going forward, so it's safe to say that is averages will look more like the averages of his final 10 games.

Also, it's tough for me to believe that he still doesn't have plenty of room to grow when he seemed to grow every week last year. Just look at his QB ratings as the year wore on, it's a steady incline week to week. I just have a hard time believing that it can be such a steady incline of improvement in one year, then just top out right there before he truly even masters a playbook, or adds more weapons.

 

[CakesW]

It's hard to quantify improvement... mere passing yards don't mean much, neither do TD's.
(I can aruge that Ben Roethlisberger has been more impressive in his 20 TD seasons than Tom Brady is in his 40 TD seasons because of how they throw them.... Roethlisberger usually opting for the longer pass, while Brady racks up a BOATLOAD of TD passes inside the 5 yard line...)

When it's all said and done... I think that Wilson will be in the 3500-3700 yard mark passing, and his TD's will be in the 25-30 range....

 

[CakesW]

I think most of the other poster's point is that the 100 rating is an average that included some very weak games early in the year. I dont think he'll have many more games like that going forward, so it's safe to say that is averages will look more like the averages of his final 10 games.

That's all well and good, however, every year guys are going to go through "Tougher" Stretches of games, and for whatever reason, they are going to average out over the course of a season. I'm a big proponent of the it's not who you play, it's when you play then theory... it generally rings true in Football.

Case in point.. weeks 10 through 15 look pretty tough for the Seahawks. He is mortal, he is going to have up and down games.... not to the extent that somebody like TJack had.... but he is going to have some clunkers in there... it's only natural

 

[SonnyCID]

That's all well and good, however, every year guys are going to go through "Tougher" Stretches of games, and for whatever reason, they are going to average out over the course of a season. I'm a big proponent of the it's not who you play, it's when you play then theory... it generally rings true in Football.

Case in point.. weeks 10 through 15 look pretty tough for the Seahawks. He is mortal, he is going to have up and down games.... not to the extent that somebody like TJack had.... but he is going to have some clunkers in there... it's only natural

Everyone has bad games, true. But the better QBs have fewer of them as the grow in their offenses and seeing how he has grown to this point I think it's safe to say that he'll grow some more. Also, Wilson is smart enough and is on a good enough team to keep his numbers and wins from taking a dive when a defense 'has his number'.

 

[Kingdome fan]

A missing piece

The common analysis of RW's skill set misstates one of his best attributes.

"RW is a highly mobile quarterback that makes him hard to cover in a read/option offense."

This may be true; however, his rare gift is his ability to "scramble" and extend plays more that run or run the read/option offense. I'm of an age that allowed me to watch all 18 years of Fran Tarkenton's NFL career. Russel Wilson's ability to scramble bears the closest similarity to Fran's that I have seen to date. If you've never watched Fran in action, go to UTube and see what you think.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

Like I said... the guy was nearly perfect in 2012, and many of you expect him to be "More than perfect" - I just don't see it happening. I expect him to be great again... I just don't expect him to exceed those numbers... he set the bar pretty high, and thats a good thing.

The fact that the offense will "open up more" definately puts him at risk of failing to exceed 2012. Especially in light of the fact that the Seahawks were a Run First team in 2012, and his passing definately complimented it to the Nth degree.

You start to open it up more, you are more likely to make mistakes. It is just what it is...

Like I said... not a knock...

Saying a QB is going to probably be a 100 Rating passer isn't a knock AT ALL...

Hell.. I'd KILL to have one even reach 85 ! Let alone 100.

Of all guys, I'm surprised with your assessment, cakes. It's actually just the opposite of what you're
saying about opening it up and making mistakes. When RWilson was "forced" due to game situations to
unleash his abilities against the Pats, Bears and Falcons, he responded incredibly. I just hope we open
it up more prior to being down and having to rely on his late game heroics.

Do your recall the 2 TD passes to steal the Pats game after being down 13 with maybe 6 left in the game?
The final drive in reg vs the Bears to take a 3 pt lead and then taking the kickoff and driving the Hawks to the winning TD, thus, not giving the ball back to Chicago. We all know about the 385 yds vs the Falcons.

What we talk about in improvement is the early games, especially the 1st 8, where he threw 7 of his
10 picks. The coaching staff kept the leash on vs Zona vs San Fran and even in the Miami game Bevell
was stubborn running the ball against a dominate Dline that we couldn't run against. Meanwhile, RWill
goes 21 of 27 but the way he was tossing the rock, had a 38 attempt game.

I'm not looking at the QBR for 2013, but the ability to put away more teams on the road that we can
beat... i.e. Rams, Zona, SF. No reason we shouldn't win 2 of 3 of those on the road and it's going to
be accomplished with RWilson's arm and not MLynch's legs. Been there, done that and failed...

I realize you think it's a compliment and such, but he scratched the surface of this abilities over the final 8 games. Even if we just took those 8 and extrapolated to the other 8 with a hiccup, he's going to
do 3,700 yds, 32 tds, 8 ints and hopefully, not too many read option rushing yds that are converted
to passing attempts.

I will have to respectfully, agree to disagree... We shall see

 

[SeattleOspreys]

It's hard to quantify improvement... mere passing yards don't mean much, neither do TD's.
(I can aruge that Ben Roethlisberger has been more impressive in his 20 TD seasons than Tom Brady is in his 40 TD seasons because of how they throw them.... Roethlisberger usually opting for the longer pass, while Brady racks up a BOATLOAD of TD passes inside the 5 yard line...)

When it's all said and done... I think that Wilson will be in the 3500-3700 yard mark passing, and his TD's will be in the 25-30 range....

We aren't that far off. Bury early and rest late.... Bevell is o.k. as OC, so glad we have an aggressive DC.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

That's all well and good, however, every year guys are going to go through "Tougher" Stretches of games, and for whatever reason, they are going to average out over the course of a season. I'm a big proponent of the it's not who you play, it's when you play then theory... it generally rings true in Football.

I adhere to that but to top it off, it's where you play the opponents, especially in the Hawks case.
For example, I'd rather have had Zonas and 9ers, AFC South schedule. Ya'll get to play Jacksonville
and Tennessee on the Road and get Houston and Indy at home.

Hawks have that and we can beat Jacksonville or Tennessee anywhere, anytime. Then get Houston
and Indy at home. That's a 4 game sweep vs the South. Having to go to Indy and Houston back
to back in weeks 4 and 5 is a challenge but a welcome one, I guess.

Case in point.. weeks 10 through 15 look pretty tough for the Seahawks. He is mortal, he is going to have up and down games.... not to the extent that somebody like TJack had.... but he is going to have some clunkers in there... it's only natural

I agree teams will regress back to the mean. I see a 12 win mean. I don't fear Minny or N.O. or even
going to N.Y. San Fran will be a war and hopefully, gets flexed for all to see. We owe Atlanta, though
tough, I'm confident.

While I know we'll lose games, this is the first year I've ever gone into a season thinking every Sunday
we'll win every game.

Vegas has early lines for all 16 Hawk games and we're only an underdog on the road at San Fran +2.5. Atlanta is a pick 'em. 1 pt fave at Houston and 3.5 fave at Indy...

 

[CakesW]

I think people see me saying that he won't get better as a slight... Its not. I just don't think he is going to do marketably better in 2013. Now please understand this....its like me saying I don't expect Miguel Cabrera to be better in 2014 from this year.... Which doesn't mean I think he is going to hit .272 with 21 home runs and 85 Enid. I think he will put up his normal stellar numbers... I expect the same for Wilson.

Paltry is right....its a 12 win team. I just expect Wilson's numbers to remain constant.

 

[STBR 27]

I think people see me saying that he won't get better as a slight... Its not.

Cakes, I think you are correct that Wilson won't get better, however his stats should be better because he will be performing at a high level for the whole season and not just the second half, like last year.

 

[Jikkle]

Bill Barnwell breaks down the NFL's young, elite quarterbacks - Grantland

Bill Barnwell is too much of a numbers nerd for my taste but this is a pretty good breakdown.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Bill Barnwell breaks down the NFL's young, elite quarterbacks - Grantland

Bill Barnwell is too much of a numbers nerd for my taste but this is a pretty good breakdown.

I thought it was a good breakdown also. Truth is this gang of four is going to be a special group thru the up coming years. I can see fans having these debates for years to come.

 

[dude82]

I was just about to post the same link, Jikkle. It's a good write-up on the four QBs without really ranking them in a best-to-worst fashion. Just reading about how these guys stacked up historically to other rookies or just other quarterbacks at any point in their careers made me appreciate how good this crop of QBs really was last year. I think they all have a chance to be better this year, one way or another.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

I think people see me saying that he won't get better as a slight... Its not. I just don't think he is going to do marketably better in 2013. Now please understand this....its like me saying I don't expect Miguel Cabrera to be better in 2014 from this year.... Which doesn't mean I think he is going to hit .272 with 21 home runs and 85 Enid. I think he will put up his normal stellar numbers... I expect the same for Wilson.

Paltry is right....its a 12 win team. I just expect Wilson's numbers to remain constant.

STL bro, c'mon. Cabrera is coming off a 2012 Triple Crown, as we've discussed that only 9 guys in the history of baseball have accomplished. Miguel has another unprecedented shot at it, so of course, you
can't expect Miguel to be any better. He's hit the pinnacle of awesomeness.. is that a word?
If not, it is now.

Jikkle posted an article related to Wilson and this is what I've been trying to say ineffectively. Will RWill improve from the 2nd half of the Falcon game? Unlikely. From the last 6 minutes of the Bears and Patriots games? Unlikely. Where he improves is his consistency over the full season, especially since the playbook was dummied up for the first half of the year.


Article "Here's Wilson's season through the first five games and then, starting with Seattle's narrow win over the Patriots in Week 6, his final 13 games of the campaign (including the playoffs):2

Games 1 -5, he had 5 tds and 6 picks
Games 6 - 18 he had 24 td's and 5 picks


Those final 13 games should be about the only reason a 49ers fan might have trouble sleeping at night. If Wilson was really an overmatched third-round pick adjusting to the league over those first five games before he got the hang of things and stopped making the typical rookie mistakes, he's a nightmare with numbers that actually outstrip Griffin's.

Wilson also became a more efficient and effective runner as the season went along, including one game in which he tore up the poor Bills in Toronto for three touchdowns. He averaged 18 yards on five carries during those first five games, but afterward, Wilson carried the ball six times a game and saw his production double to 40 yards per contest. Over his final five games of the 2012 season, which included the playoff contests against the Redskins and Falcons, Wilson averaged 61.2 rushing yards per game, surpassing Griffin's season average of 54.3 rushing yards.


The strength-of-schedule issue only makes Wilson's performance look stronger. While Luck played the easiest schedule in the NFL and Griffin played the third-easiest slate in the NFC, Wilson played a tougher schedule than any quarterback outside the NFC West. He was also just the fourth rookie quarterback since the merger to win a playoff game on the road, while his feverish comeback against the Falcons in the divisional round failed only on account of his defense. If the Russell Wilson who was torching the league at the end of the season is the guy we see in 2013, he's the best quarterback amid the Gang of Four. " / of article

I think he's going to be better with a full year of understanding the offense. Getting a Ferrari in Percy Harvin and "if" which I expect the guy we saw at the end of the year, will make him better and the Hawks better because he will be trusted to do more. Bevell played a very conservative offense in 2012, so Wilson couldn't even show what he's capable over a full season.

I fully realize you're not trying to slight him or it's some put down. He won't get better than the 2nd half of the Hawk/Falcon game. 2013 full season vs 2012 full season? You bet he's going to be better. The Hawks squad that lost on the road to Zona, Rams and SF in close fashion won't be losing those games in 2013. Why? RWilson's maturity, leadership, understanding of the O, and allowing RWill to do more etc.. Those traits will make him better big guy.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Being from central North Carolina, I've really liked Russell Wilson for years...

The main knock on him in my eyes, really isn't a knock at all.. it's basically a compliment.

That being... I don't see Russell Wilson EVER getting marketably better than he is right now. I know some will take that as a supreme slap in the face, but it isn't.

He was one of the rare athletes where he came into the league as Ready as he would ever be, and played probably as good as he will ever play. I don't expect a significant improvement from him, but more importantly, I don't see a significant drop from him.


I'm pretty sure if you asked any Seattle fan if they would take a duplicate of the 2012 Season, not a single one of them would be dissapointed if he repeated those numbers.

What's up cakes.... I think Wilson will improve just do to the fact that he has another year under his belt with this offense... In the last 3 years including his college day's the guy has had to learn new play-books every year on the fly... Just being able to process the same playbook with the same coordinator and most of the same players should elevate his play.. I think the best of Wilson is yet to come... Wilson is a mentally strong dude...

 

[ckhokie]

Its refreshing to see a reasonable thread/discussion on this topic. to you Hawk fans.

Trying to have a Luck/RGIII discussion with Skins fans is about the worst thing I have ever experienced.