Why Russell Wilson's megadeal may not be coming as quickly as we think

[HaroldSeattle]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hearing from a source that Russell Wilson and Seattle have negotiated a contract extension. Wilson is on his way to Seattle for announcement</p>&mdash; Anthony Nipert (@AnthonyNipert) <a href="">March 21, 2015</a></blockquote>
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[HaroldSeattle]

Sorry about messing that tweet up. This is the same person that broke the Graham trade I think.

 

[Anointed One]

Can't wait to see what the deal reflects...

 

[WizardHawk]

In my opinion the Seahawks have one of the tightest ships when it comes to not letting stuff leak out that I have ever seen.

I'm not sure I would make anything more out of this than that.

Just like Lynch, I'll believe it when the formal announcements are made.

They are going to reach a deal, they aren't close, they haven't started, wilson may be going to seattle to announce... Who knows.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

This is the NFL. If you're a winning QB you can market yourself anywhere. Peyton built that brand in Indianapolis, a tiny market really.

To a certain extent I would agree. But there have been multiple one and done QBs who haven't faired that well. Likewise plenty of quality QBs that haven't reached those lucrative national deals. Peyton was aided by putting up ungodly numbers and breaking records every year. Bottom line playing bigger markets while keeping everything else even nets bigger endorsements. Not that I think that will sway RW decision. I was mainly just replying to others, that it does/can have an effect on a players decision. Especially if they go into FA.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

If the Seahawks are going to give him a 20 million AAV contract, why would they guarantee it fully?

The full guarenteed contract would either not count against the cap or very little of the contract would count against the cap.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hearing from a source that Russell Wilson and Seattle have negotiated a contract extension. Wilson is on his way to Seattle for announcement</p>&mdash; Anthony Nipert (@AnthonyNipert) <a href="">March 21, 2015</a></blockquote>
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If this is true, I'm glad this will be over before we get to training camp. Would have hated for this to creep into the regular season which could have been a distraction.

 

[blstoker]

Sorry about messing that tweet up.

All ya gotta do with twitter is put in the link and the site takes care of the rest of the embedding. No more special quote stuff.

As for Wilson, it's nice to see all the activity, but until something seems to clear itself through the fog, I'm just waiting....

 

[blstoker]

Here's an interesting article trying to guess Wilson's contract.

In just a few short weeks, Russell Wilson will finally become eligible for a greatly-earned contract extension. Arguably no other player currently active in the league is more deserving of a pay raise, and the Seahawks seems inclined to financially appease their franchise QB.

We'll re-address a forecast compiled earlier this year, putting Wilson through our projection formula, pressing him up against four variable quarterbacks of similar skill and age to compare his statistical production both in the passing and rushing game over the past two seasons. In terms of Wilson, we'll use statistics from the 2012 & 2013 season, while also projecting out his current 2014 figures for a full 16 games. The result will be a large, but doable forecast for Russell Wilson's next contract in Seattle.

Notable Notes

• To date, Russell Wilson has earned approximately $2.2M in his 3 NFL seasons. 496 NFL players (37 QBs) are earning more than that this year alone.
• Wilson is earning $662,434 in 2014 cash for his efforts. 15 QBs are earning more than that per WEEK this season.
• 33 Seattle Seahawks are earning morning in 2014 than their starting QB.

Comparable Quarterbacks
To generate a prediction the Spotrac team determined that the following quarterbacks were viable targets to use in comparing with Wilson. The key was to locate players with similar numbers, who signed their second contract around the age of 26, the age Wilson will be come the offseason. To determine a more likely starting point for our numbers, we'll perform a linear regression of each contract listed below.
PLAYER LENGTH VALUE AVG. SALARY GUARANTEED AGE WHEN SIGNED
Aaron Rodgers 4 $110,000,000.00 $20,000,000 $20,000,000.00 30
Colin Kaepernick 6 $114,000,000 $19,000,000 $61,000,000 26
Alex Smith 4 $68,000,000 $17,000,000 $45,000,000 30
Andy Dalton 6 $96,000,000 $16,000,00 $17,000,000 26
Averages 5.25 $97,000,000 $18,500,000.00 $44,250,000.00 27
At 26 years old, Wilson should sign this deal at the same age that Kaepernick and Dalton did. However Rodgers and Smith were both older at the time of their deals. We'll adjust their contracts up to reflect each as if it were signed at the age of 26 to provide a better scope for our base prediction.

Related: View the list of Top Average Paid Quarterbacks in the NFL
LENGTH VALUE AVG. SALARY (SLOPE)
6 $112,680,000 $18,780,000

Passing Statistical Comparisons
We'll first assess Wilson as a Passing QB only, comparing him to our variable QBs in terms of Games Played, Passing Yards per Season, Passing Yards per Game, Passing Touchdowns per Seasons, Interceptions per Season, and Completion % per Season.
PASSING STATISTICS
PLAYER G/YR YDS/YR YDS/G TDS/YR INT/YR COMP %/YR
Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN) 16 3981 298.8 30 318 62.1
Alex Smith (2012-13, KC) 12.5 2525 202 18 6 63.5
Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF) 14.5 2506 172.8 16.5 5.5 59.8
Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB) 15.5 4469 288.3 42 7 67.6
AVERAGES 14.625 3370.25 240.4 26.625 9.125 63.25
Russell Wilson (2012-14, SEA) 16 3274 204.6 23 8 63.1
% CHANGE 9.40% -2.86% -14.92% -13.62% 12.33% -.2
MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE: -1.55%
AVERAGE PRIME PERCENTAGE: -1.65%

When comparing these numbers to our previous analysis of Wilson, he's actually dipped a bit in terms of the passing game in 2014. To be fair, his receiving core (including the tight end position) isn't what it used to be in terms of experience and talent.

RushingStatistical Comparisons
Now let's take a look at how these quarterbacks rate in terms of rushing statistics. We'll compare Rushing Attempts per Season, Rushing Yards per Season, Rushing Yards per Attempt, and Rushing Touchdowns per Season.
RUSHING STATISTICS
PLAYER ATT. YDS/YR YDS/ATT. TDS/YR
Andy Dalton (2012-13, CIN) 54 152 2.81 3
Alex Smith (2012-13, KC) 53.5 282 5.27 .5
Colin Kaepernick (2012-13, SF) 78 470 6.02 4.5
Aaron Rodgers (2011-12, GB) 57 306 5.36 3.5
AVERAGES 60.625 302.5 4.87 2.875
Russell Wilson (2012-14, SEA) 108 687.5 6.25 5
% CHANGE 78.14% 127.27% 28.34% 30.43%
MEDIAN PRIME PERCENTAGE: 54.29%
AVERAGE PRIME PERCENTAGE: 66.05%

As expected, Wilson absolutely dominates this comparison. He attempts 40% more rushes, accounting for more than double the yardage with the ball in his hands. While he's fairly inline with our variable quarterbacks in the passing game, he's FAR ahead of them in terms of these statistics. Furthermore he's been asked to use his legs far more in 2014 than in previous years.

Results
Length of the Contract
At 26 years old, and having already instantiated himself as the long-term franchise quarterback solution in Seattle, it's perfectly likely the the Seahawks will choose to extend Wilson through the year 2021. As most of the recent quarterback extensions are adding 6 new years on, we'll follow suit here.

Value of the Contract
In terms of mathematics, and in the general role of the quarterback position across the league, it doesn't make sense to weigh the passing analysis and the rushing analysis evenly. With that being said, we'll apply our prime pecentages at a 70/30 ratio between the two categories respectively. This means we'll assess Wilson at a + 16.29 Median Prime Percentage, and a +19.80 Average Prime Percentage. Our initial base contract provided an average salary of nearly $18.8M per year, a figure that would place him 7th among active quarterbacks.

Final Thoughts
As far as contract extensions go, this one should be a no-brainer. The Seahawks struck gold when drafting Wilson when they did, and they've been getting maximum value from it for almost 3 complete seasons now. The time to reward the face of their franchise is now, and there's really no questioning that notion.

Financially speaking, the Seahawks currently have $105.6M allocated to their 2015 salary cap (estimated to be $138.6M in total based on league projections). While they have a few notable free agents to resign or replace this offseason, they appear to be in great shape to structure a deal that pays Wilson a handsome amount of upfront cash over the next three seasons (the name of the game).

When factoring in and averaging out our two Prime Percentages, we're given the following forecast for Russell Wilson's extension:

Spotrac's Prediction: 6 years, $131,750,000
Average annual salary $21,958,333, estimated $64,000,000 guaranteed

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Good a guess as any, by spotrac. I like to see a deal done, so we can see what is left $ wise this year, if any and the cap hit on the upcoming years.

 

[JMR]

I could be wrong, but an extension is only going to affect 2015 cap by whatever the signing bonus proration is. If the contract is this fully guaranteed thing that is being rumored, maybe there is no bonus or a very small one, thus barely changing the cap hit for 2015 if at all.

 

[flyerhawk]

The full guarenteed contract would either not count against the cap or very little of the contract would count against the cap.

Huh? Of course it counts against the cap. Every dollar.

 

[flyerhawk]

Spotrac's Prediction: 6 years, $131,750,000
Average annual salary $21,958,333, estimated $64,000,000 guaranteed

Those numbers seem about right unless they fully guarantee it and then I see the total contract being between 90 and 100 million.

 

[BHF]

Huh? Of course it counts against the cap. Every dollar.

Maybe he meant "this years cap"?

If they are going the full guaranteed route, I would expect that Russ' 2015 contract will remain largely the same, and that the big money begins in 2016.

 

[flyerhawk]

Maybe he meant "this years cap"?

If they are going the full guaranteed route, I would expect that Russ' 2015 contract will remain largely the same, and that the big money begins in 2016.

Well I suspect that may be true. Truth be told I expect that his contract and/or Wag's contract will take up most of the remaining cap for this year.

 

[WizardHawk]

Where the hell is he flying into Seattle from? Doesn't take two days to reach Seattle from anywhere on earth unless he was hiking out of the deep jungle before getting on the plane.





















#twitterrumorsftw

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Where the hell is he flying into Seattle from? Doesn't take two days to reach Seattle from anywhere on earth unless he was hiking out of the deep jungle before getting on the plane.





















#twitterrumorsftw

Yeah just another false alarm. I can't help myself, I search for every scrap of news related to Wilson being extended. I just wish they would get it done already.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Seattle is smart to hold off the contract until free agency/draft is over. No other QB/4-3 ILBs are going to get extensions that would swing Wilson/Wagner's deal at this point, so why rush it when you're still filling holes on the team? Seattle can structure both contracts to be < $10M this year quite easily.... that said, if they end up having a bit extra spending room when the dust settles, pack more money into this year and 'get it over with.'

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Huh? Of course it counts against the cap. Every dollar.

You're probably right. I swore I read somewhere that a full guarenteed contract would be a much less cap hit then a normal contract for a QB. Oh well, I just want this contract done soon.

 

[BHF]

You're probably right. I swore I read somewhere that a full guarenteed contract would be a much less cap hit then a normal contract for a QB. Oh well, I just want this contract done soon.

It will be in so far as the player is much, much more likely to take a contract for 6/90 when he knows for a fact that he will see all 90; as opposed to, say, 6/120 where the last several years may, or may, be paid out.