Why is Denver an 8 point pick over KC?

[TDs3nOut]

Chiefs are the only undefeated team, they lead the league in sacks, they have given up the fewest points per game, Denver is without its All-Pro LT, and Peyton Manning is hobbled by a sprained ankle. I was expecting a narrower spread. Why do the bookmakers seem to have so little faith in KC?

 

[Wolvie]

The lines are set to entice equal amounts of bets on both sides of the line. I think its pretty easy to conclude that most people think the Broncos are a much more complete team than KC, and they're at home. It'll be interesting to see how that line changes though, especially after the Manning MRI results

 

[TDs3nOut]

The lines are set to entice equal amounts of bets on both sides of the line. I think its pretty easy to conclude that most people think the Broncos are a much more complete team than KC, and they're at home. It'll be interesting to see how that line changes though, especially after the Manning MRI results

Reports are that PM's high ankle sprain was aggravated, there is no new damage, and he will play. Does that mean that the spread will widen?

 

[Broncos6482]

The betting public doesn't believe that the Chiefs can keep it close, hence the high line. Remember, the oddsmakers aren't predicting how much Denver will win by, they're guaging bettors beliefs on the game to make sure they don't take a huge loss one way or the other.

What it boils down to is the public basically thinks the Broncos are a lot better than the Chiefs.

 

[tshirt]

nobody beats Denver at Mile High in the sky. here were the closing spreads for the Broncos at Mile High so far this season...

27 - Jaguars
16.5 - Raiders
11 - Redskins
10.5 - Eagles
7.5 - Defending Champs Ravens (opening thursday)
?? - Chiefs

 

[element1286]

The betting public doesn't believe that the Chiefs can keep it close, hence the high line. Remember, the oddsmakers aren't predicting how much Denver will win by, they're guaging bettors beliefs on the game to make sure they don't take a huge loss one way or the other.

What it boils down to is the public basically thinks the Broncos are a lot better than the Chiefs.

Definitely true, but the lines are usually accurate on the average. For every 100 weekend gamblers putting down 100, there is probably a sharp pro putting 100-1000 times that much, if the line was off, the pros wouldn't let it sit at a number if they could make money on it.

 

[tshirt]

compare to the closing spreads when Broncos were on the road this season

7.5 @ Dallas Cowboys
7 @ San Diego Chargers
6.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
3.5 @ New York Giants (Manning Bowl III)

 

[element1286]

Also, looking at the actual game KC is not built for high variance games, it's doubtful they completely stop the Broncos offense, so they will most likely have to score 24 minimum to win the game.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I understand how the spread works, so I guess I didn't make myself clear in the OP. What I'm interested in is why do people seem to discount so heavily how KC has performed so far this season, particularly on defense?

 

[Broncos6482]

I understand how the spread works, so I guess I didn't make myself clear in the OP. What I'm interested in is why do people seem to discount so heavily how KC has performed so far this season, particularly on defense?

Because they've done it against a lot of back up quarterbacks, and because Denver's offense has been so good all year, and because the Chiefs offense has been so bad, and because Denver's at home, and because Denver has had a longer period of sustained offensive success than the Chiefs have had sustained defenses success. Because it's easier to believe an offense will continue to put up 30 points a game than it is to believe a defense will routinely hold teams under 20 points a game.

Mostly, I think people want to see the Chiefs defense hold an elite offense down on the road before they'll buy in.

 

[tshirt]

Broncos have one of the league’s greatest offenses of all-time (no team has scored more than Denver’s 371 points through nine games) led by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time

people want to see them play the 1990 Giants D or the 1985 Bears D, etc

 

[TDs3nOut]

Because they've done it against a lot of back up quarterbacks, and because Denver's offense has been so good all year, and because the Chiefs offense has been so bad, and because Denver's at home, and because Denver has had a longer period of sustained offensive success than the Chiefs have had sustained defenses success. Because it's easier to believe an offense will continue to put up 30 points a game than it is to believe a defense will routinely hold teams under 20 points a game.

Mostly, I think people want to see the Chiefs defense hold an elite offense down on the road before they'll buy in.

That seems to make pretty good sense.

 

[element1286]

I understand how the spread works, so I guess I didn't make myself clear in the OP. What I'm interested in is why do people seem to discount so heavily how KC has performed so far this season, particularly on defense?

My guess would be SOS concerns the Chiefs have done well against inferior competition, which is fine, they are supposed, but every team on their schedule is .500 or worse.

The Chiefs have given up 12.3 points per game, which is fine, but if all their competition average 19 points per game* in all their non-Chiefs games, it isn't as impressive.

*guesstimate, but they have played some low scoring teams, league average ppg is 23.3.

 

[Wolvie]

I don't think its so much as the bettors discounting KC but buying into the Denver hype. I would be very surprised if this game was more than a one-possession win either way

 

[BOSSMANPC]

Schedule probably has some thing to do with it too. I know that KC struggled to beat the Bills in fact the Bills shot them self in the foot in that game when Tuel made a horrible play at the goal line (a 14 point spread). IDK how tough KC's schedule has been but like I said the Bills are not exactly a powerhouse and very well could have even should have won that game. What has been their strength of schedule?

 

[element1286]

Schedule probably has some thing to do with it too. I know that KC struggled to beat the Bills in fact the Bills shot them self in the foot in that game when Tuel made a horrible play at the goal line (a 14 point spread). IDK how tough KC's schedule has been but like I said the Bills are not exactly a powerhouse and very well could have even should have won that game. What has been their strength of schedule?

Didn't look at the rest of the league but their schedule:

Team, Offense*, Defense*
Jax, 32, 32
DAL, 4, 23
PHI, 11, 21
NYG, 30, 26
TEN, 19, 10
OAK, 29, 20
HOU, 27, 28
CLE, 26, 11
BUF, 24, 24

AVG, 22.4, 21.6

*Ranks in PPG and PPG Against out of 32 teams

 

[Jims_Doors]

Make Alex Smith throw the ball whether it be because they're losing big or 3rd and long situations. He's not a downfield passer. He prefers to dump it off to Charles and let him do the leg work.

Just pressure Smith and hope for mistakes which will probably happen.

 

[dkmightyhammer]

When you consider that the home team usually gets 3 points just for playing at home a 7 point spread isn't that big of a deal.

 

[BeastHawk]

Because they've done it against a lot of back up quarterbacks, and because Denver's offense has been so good all year, and because the Chiefs offense has been so bad, and because Denver's at home, and because Denver has had a longer period of sustained offensive success than the Chiefs have had sustained defenses success. Because it's easier to believe an offense will continue to put up 30 points a game than it is to believe a defense will routinely hold teams under 20 points a game.

Mostly, I think people want to see the Chiefs defense hold an elite offense down on the road before they'll buy in.

That makes a good point. However, I think it completely ignores the fact that Denver's defense has given up a ton of points this season. And have shown that they are hard pressed against a superior offense.

 

[TDs3nOut]

That makes a good point. However, I think it completely ignores the fact that Denver's defense has given up a ton of points this season. And have shown that they are hard pressed against a superior offense.

Not too descriptive of KC.