Who will be the next Prince Fielder?

[seahawksfan234]

Since our chances of making the playoffs are near zero I figure it's not too soon to start speculating about the off-season.

In case you didn't get the reference in my post title, by asking "who will be the next Prince Fielder?" I'm basically asking, who will be this offseason's big name free agent the Mariners will go after? (And likely fail).

Some names of players the Mariners have been connected to in free agency (I know I will forget a few):
Josh Hamilton
Michael Bourn
Nick Swisher
Mike Napoli
Prince Fielder
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Bay (When it would have been a big signing)
John Lackey

My mind is blanking but I think you get the picture.

So my question is, who will be the big name free agent the Mariners will go after this year?

Here are some possibilities:
Robinson Cano: I highly believe the Yankees will retain him. But the miniscule possibility is there.

Jacoby Ellsbury: This one I bold because I figure he will be the biggest name the Mariners actually have a shot at. He's from Oregon and played college ball in Oregon as well. The only downside being he turns 30 in September, oh and he's a Boras client.

Shin-Soo Choo: Former Mariners player. Has had very solid production basically his entire career. According to baseball-reference his defense his terrible, could be a replacement at DH if we don't retain Morales. Sadly another Boras client.

Nelson Cruz: Personally I would not touch Nelson Cruz with a 10 foot stick. Not just because of the PED thing either. He is 33 and has only played more than 130 games once in his career. I think you could get better production with Morse at a much cheaper rate.

Mike Napoli: The Mariners went after him last offseason. Who's to say they don't make another run at him?

Hunter Pence: Interesting player here. After being traded to the Phillies in 2012 his production dropped a bit. He appears to be having a solid rebound season this year though. I don't really hear as much about him as I did when he was with the Astros for some reason, he could be a really good value signing.

Tim Lincecum: I list him because of his connections to Seattle. His production has dropped off a ton from when he was absolutely dominant but is still somewhat young and could come at a decent price. If he wants serious money I'd avoid him though, he's a really high risk signing. He is having a decent season this year with a 4.43 ERA.

Who do you all want to see the Mariners go after?

 

[octagondd]

a power hitting 1B and/or corner Ofer that can stay healthy and play decent defense

 

[Baseballnut77]

OF is priority number one

 

[Logicallylethal]

I love Jacoby Ellsbury but is he ever gonna get his power back? there's no explaining how you can go from hitting 32 hrs then then combine for only 9 hrs total in the past 170 + games

He still has great blazing speed though and hits for a nice avg though. I highly doubt he would pick question mark potential on the rise Seattle team over an elite playoff contender in Boston unless we give him an offer that he can't refuse

 

[seahawksfan234]

I love Jacoby Ellsbury but is he ever gonna get his power back? there's no explaining how you can go from hitting 32 hrs then then combine for only 9 hrs total in the past 170 + games

He still has great blazing speed though and hits for a nice avg though. I highly doubt he would pick question mark potential on the rise Seattle team over an elite playoff contender in Boston unless we give him an offer that he can't refuse

Jacoby Ellsbury's jump from 20 career HRs in 349 career games to 32 HRs in 158 games in 2011, then receding back down to 11 HRs in his next 179 games will always be a great mystery to me.

That being said I would still sign Ellsbury even if he never hits more than 10 HRs again in his career. He's still a good player even without the power. He's an MVP caliber player with the power. IMO he should have won the MVP in 2011. Verlander had an outstanding year that year but nothing worth being the first starting pitcher in 20+ years to win the AL MVP.

 

[seattlefan75]

My big thing is that we need some OF help. I think Ackley is a bust, Ibanez might retire, Saunders is never going to be a solid everyday player, franklin guti is always hurt, that pretty much leaves michael morse whom we tried to trade last second at the deadline so I think we need to do someting with that and should be our priority this offseason. Our infield looks good, how justin smoak climbed his avg to where it is is beyond me, nick franklin and miller have been awesome and of course seager at 3rd. Zunino is going to be on the watch for breakout player next season and our pitching if we bring up hultzen and walker should look great along with kuma and hernandez

 

[Howie115]

Verlander had an outstanding year that year but nothing worth being the first
starting pitcher in 20+ years to win the AL MVP.

Hmmm.... triple crown of pitching (24 wins, 250 Ks, 2.40 ERA), never had a single start of fewer than 6 innings, threw a no-hitter, his team won their division at 95-67 (while the Red Sox were third in theirs at 90-72), he was something like 12-2 after a Tiger loss.... what else does a guy have to do to be considered "deserving"? I will concede there's an argument over whether Ellsbury was more deserving, but to say that Verlander did "nothing" worthy of an MVP is a crock.

 

[seahawksfan234]

W/L is a useless stat.

So in reality it was 250Ks and a 2.40 ERA. Neither are unprecedented. His 250Ks were the result of pitching 250 innings which was a product of him being overworked, which has obviously taken a toll on him.

what else does a guy have to do to be considered "deserving"?

Probably a sub 2 ERA, with 220+ innings.

Zach Greinke in 2009 > Justin Verlander in 2011

To be quite honest with you I'd also take Felix Hernandez in 2010 over Verlander's 2011 season. The only reason he won the MVP was due to his W/L record. Cy Young voters obviously have not caught on to the fact that pitching well does not always equal an outstanding W/L, it also requires offensive production which is completely outside the pitchers' control.

Did he deserve the Cy Young that year? No doubt. Did he deserve the MVP? I wouldn't have even put him in the top 10 personally.

My point being you cannot honestly argue that Verlander had the best season of any pitcher in 20 years.

 

[seahawksfan234]

My big thing is that we need some OF help. I think Ackley is a bust, Ibanez might retire, Saunders is never going to be a solid everyday player, franklin guti is always hurt, that pretty much leaves michael morse whom we tried to trade last second at the deadline so I think we need to do someting with that and should be our priority this offseason. Our infield looks good, how justin smoak climbed his avg to where it is is beyond me, nick franklin and miller have been awesome and of course seager at 3rd. Zunino is going to be on the watch for breakout player next season and our pitching if we bring up hultzen and walker should look great along with kuma and hernandez

Even if Ibanez does not retire I'm not sure I'd want him as an every day player next year. He is having an outstanding season but his drought since the All-Star game demonstrates that at 41 years old he is no guarantee of another 20+ HR season next year.

I wouldn't have a problem with bringing him back as a clubhouse presence and a pinch hitter but the Mariners can and should do better.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I'm not sure we want to be seeing this in LF next year...

I love the guy but his age is starting to show.

 

[Banned 10x]

I'm not sure we want to be seeing this in LF next year...

I love the guy but his age is starting to show.

sorry Raul, had to do this

 

[Logicallylethal]

Jacoby Ellsbury's jump from 20 career HRs in 349 career games to 32 HRs in 158 games in 2011, then receding back down to 11 HRs in his next 179 games will always be a great mystery to me.

That being said I would still sign Ellsbury even if he never hits more than 10 HRs again in his career. He's still a good player even without the power. He's an MVP caliber player with the power. IMO he should have won the MVP in 2011. Verlander had an outstanding year that year but nothing worth being the first starting pitcher in 20+ years to win the AL MVP.

Lol just as we are talking about Ellsbury's power disappearance he goes and hits 2 hrs in a game

 

[seattlefan75]

Even if Ibanez does not retire I'm not sure I'd want him as an every day player next year. He is having an outstanding season but his drought since the All-Star game demonstrates that at 41 years old he is no guarantee of another 20+ HR season next year.

I wouldn't have a problem with bringing him back as a clubhouse presence and a pinch hitter but the Mariners can and should do better.

I would prefer to bring him back next season if he doesnt retire I mean he is hitting almost better than any other young kid we have on the team except for maybe kyle seager. We really dont have any prospects to bring up to compete for a starting job so unless we trade for someone or sign someone from free agency I dont think we can afford to let ibanez go and even michael morse is on his last year in his contract

 

[wazzu31]

I would prefer to bring him back next season if he doesnt retire I mean he is hitting almost better than any other young kid we have on the team except for maybe kyle seager. We really dont have any prospects to bring up to compete for a starting job so unless we trade for someone or sign someone from free agency I dont think we can afford to let ibanez go and even michael morse is on his last year in his contract

I don't really think there is a question that if Raul wants to play another season the Mariners should bring him back. As has been stated there is zero depth in the organization when it comes to outfield help on the horizon. So unless the M's get Ellsbury and another corner outfielder there isn't a legitimate reason not to bring him back. I'm against bringing in a one year veteran that blocks a young guy from playing. But also if they decide to bring Raul back then Smoak or Montero has to be dealt.

 

[Podunkparte]

I don't really think there is a question that if Raul wants to play another season the Mariners should bring him back. As has been stated there is zero depth in the organization when it comes to outfield help on the horizon. So unless the M's get Ellsbury and another corner outfielder there isn't a legitimate reason not to bring him back. I'm against bringing in a one year veteran that blocks a young guy from playing. But also if they decide to bring Raul back then Smoak or Montero has to be dealt.

Why? Smoak might finally be starting to become a legitimate 1st baseman. His defense is great and he's starting to hit again. Montero might be a career AAA player at this point and certainly isn't pushing anyone out of their position.

Raul isn't going to be a 1st baseman. Resign Morales to be the DH and bring Raul back to do what he was supposed to be this year: a veteran bat off the bench. I don't see how Smoak or Montero are blocking Raul next season.

 

[dude82]

Raul has never been known or celebrated for his defense. In fact, I remember people wanting him off the team the last time he was here because his defense was that bad. It didn't matter what his offensive production was.

 

[Howie115]

Zach Greinke in 2009 > Justin Verlander in 2011

To be quite honest with you I'd also take Felix Hernandez in 2010 over Verlander's 2011 season.

Based on what.... ERA only? Throwing out the W/L records....

Verlander in 2011: 2.40 ERA (worse than the other 2, but led the AL that season), 250/57 K/BB (close to Greinke, better than Felix), 0.92 WHIP (much better than the other 2)

Greinke in 2009: 2.16 ERA, 242/51 K/BB, 1.07 WHIP

Felix in 2010: 2.27 ERA, 232/70 K/BB, 1.06 WHIP

The only reason he won the MVP was due to his W/L record.

No, there's also that word "valuable" in there. Verlander's Tigers finished 1st. Greinke's Royals finished dead last in the ALC in 2009. Felix's Mariners finished dead last in the ALW 2010. Doesn't matter if it wasn't their fault, the MVP voters look at how a player helps his team win.

Keep fishin', though.

 

[Howie115]

Oh, and the stats for Roger Clemens in 1986 (last starter to win an MVP before Verlander):

24-4, 2.48 ERA, 238 Ks in 254 innings, 238/67 K/BB, 0.97 WHIP.

I guess Clemens "did nothing" to deserve an MVP either.

 

[Baseballnut77]

You bring up a good point howie, however you also look past a key point. Felix doesnt have prince cabrera and a host of others behind him. felix is on his own

 

[Howie115]

No argument on that. With hitting support, Felix would be a perennial 20-game winner. I'm only arguing seahawksfan's original point that Verlander "did nothing" to deserve MVP consideration in 2011.

Again, I can understand any and all arguments that Ellsbury should have won over JV that year. But to suggest that JV shouldn't have even been in the discussion is ludicrous.