Which QB will make a vast improvement?

[NinerSickness]

McCoy has to beat out my boy Scott Tolzein. That won't be as easy as people think. While I expect McCoy to fit better in our West Coast Offense, I am looking believe Tolzein will win that battle. Time will tell.

I don't have a whole lot to go on with this one, but I'll put my money on McCoy. His starting experience will probably give him a big edge.

I don't think either one is a lock to make the 53-man roster though.

 

[numone9er]

I don't have a whole lot to go on with this one, but I'll put my money on McCoy. His starting experience will probably give him a big edge.

I don't think either one is a lock to make the 53-man roster though.

With most positions already filled I think the backup QB competition is one of the most intriguing. I'm excited to see what both of these guys can do in pre season. It's very likely that one of these guys will have to contribute at some point this season.

 

[deep9er]

3. Colin Kaepernick - Sorry 9er fans.... I have him here for the same reasons I have Wilson, 2nd year in the league (As a starter) and the time and tape for defenses to figure this dude out. He will struggle compared to last year but will grow as a starting QB, if that makes sense. I'm thinking he may go 10-6 worst case as your starter...


your opinion is fine, but wanted to comment on "figuring him out from tape". figure out his running, his passing, or overall QB play? in the case of Kap, i'm wondering if this opinion is made with only his running in mind?

after the season, Kap will be judged by his passing, cause he'll pass much more than run. passing is what today's NFL QB must do, the running is gravy and supplements passing.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

2. Sam Bradford - Yep the homer pick but come on, the dude's in his first season returning under the same OC. I remember a guy like that who IMO has less talent and did pretty good for you guys. Also Sammie has an OL that can actually go to other teams as starters for the first time in his career from last year save one or two guys. Last, just look at the weapons added to the passing game, enough for me to add Bradford to this list.

If we're shooting for accuracy here, it must be noted that Smith's first year with the same OC he started out with passer ratings of 52.5, 82.2, and 68.8 (QBRs of 29.3, 59.9, and 12.4), throwing 2 TDs and 5 INTs and taking 7 sacks while going 0-3 before that OC was canned. Smith got injured four games later, having posted a record of 1-6. Think it's safe to say having a fully season and offseason with the same OC didn't help him much, though much of that may have had to do with the OC in question.

Smith's real success began in his first year in Harbaugh's system.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

3. Colin Kaepernick - Sorry 9er fans.... I have him here for the same reasons I have Wilson, 2nd year in the league (As a starter) and the time and tape for defenses to figure this dude out. He will struggle compared to last year but will grow as a starting QB, if that makes sense. I'm thinking he may go 10-6 worst case as your starter...


your opinion is fine, but wanted to comment on "figuring him out from tape". figure out his running, his passing, or overall QB play? in the case of Kap, i'm wondering if this opinion is made with only his running in mind?

after the season, Kap will be judged by his passing, cause he'll pass much more than run. passing is what today's NFL QB must do, the running is gravy and supplements passing.

Yeah, and Kap is presumably growing tremendously this offseason as he's the unquestioned starter from day one. Teams may pick up on last year's Kap, but there'll be a lot more to pick up on this year.

 

[MHSL82]

2. Sam Bradford - Yep the homer pick but come on, the dude's in his first season returning under the same OC. I remember a guy like that who IMO has less talent and did pretty good for you guys. Also Sammie has an OL that can actually go to other teams as starters for the first time in his career from last year save one or two guys. Last, just look at the weapons added to the passing game, enough for me to add Bradford to this list.

If we're shooting for accuracy here, it must be noted that Smith's first year with the same OC he started out with passer ratings of 52.5, 82.2, and 68.8 (QBRs of 29.3, 59.9, and 12.4), throwing 2 TDs and 5 INTs and taking 7 sacks while going 0-3 before that OC was canned. Smith got injured four games later, having posted a record of 1-6. Think it's safe to say having a fully season and offseason with the same OC didn't help him much, though much of that may have had to do with the OC in question.

Smith's real success began in his first year in Harbaugh's system.

Smith started playing much better with Johnson (now a college OC) after Raye was fired (specifically after the booing at the Eagles game 11/2 TD/INT ratio, 95.8 rating), but yeah, his first real success was with Harbaugh and company.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Smith started playing much better with Johnson (now a college OC) after Raye was fired (specifically after the booing at the Eagles game 11/2 TD/INT ratio, 95.8 rating), but yeah, his first real success was with Harbaugh and company.

Yeah, Smith started to come along toward the end of the '10 season. It wasn't until '11 that he really took off, though.

 

[maniax]

Colin Kaepernick this season is going to be like Aaron Rodgers on roids and HGH.

He's going to light people up with his arm 1st, and when he sees a big running lane he'll take off and burn teams that way too.

I'm thinking by the end of the season he'll be the best QB in the league.


I think those QB ratings that put Brady and Peyton at the top of the list of QBs is based on the past not the future. I would not want Brady or Peyton on my playoff team. 35+ year old QBs have a really hard time winning Superbowls.
Peyton is so immobile now as soon as someone gets a hand on him he eats a big sack and coughs up the ball.

 

[MHSL82]

Taken from a quick search of NinerSickness + Vick + Overrated...

and can't forget Michael Vick to that list either

This.

I completely agree that Matt Ryan is vastly overrated.

Let's not get too carried away after 2 quarters now.

Vick is the most overrated player in the league.

By the way, my post saying Vick is the most overrated player in the NFL came before all those picks. Just so y'know I'm not overreacting after one game.

Michael Vick is the most overrated player in NFL history.

He beat out Favre (thank you John Madden), McNabb, Culpepper (for a while) and Eddie George.

Elway had a strong arm (Marino's was stronger IMO), and he was a great "draft prospect," but what he actually did with his career is one of the most overrated performances of any QB this side of Favre , McNabb & Vick.

I actually compiled the average QB numbers for every year from 1979 to present, and Elway actually put numbers that were BELOW AVERAGE for a QB over the course of his career.

I was also surprised at how underrated Kurt Warner is based on his numbers against the average. He & Steve Young are 2 of the most underrated and under-appreciated QBs of all time IMO.

We found out why he hasn't matched his ratedness! No one ever taught him to hold on the ball. At least he doesn't have small hands like some here used to (just a joke, not a ChrisPozz fact).

“The other day, I broke out in the pocket, and the first thing Chip told me was to tuck the football,” Vick said. “So I showed him how I was running with it, and he looked at it and he knocked the ball right out of my hands. And he was like, ‘Hold it like this.’ And what he told me felt comfortable. I had a tighter grip on the football. That should secure that problem as long as I work on it.”

Oh and he doesn't hold on the ball too long, it's those pesky deep plays (as if no one else criticized for this isn't waiting for the same thing) and he can read defenses just fine, not sensitive about it. :rollseyes:

Vick bristles at critics, says he's learned how to secure the ball

 

[NinerSickness]

Yep. Vick's fumbled more than any QB I can remember.

And he's had only 1 season in which he played in all 16 regular season games (and that was one of his worst seasons). He's missed 27% of his starts with the Eagles.

And it seems like he's made the probowl every year.

He is OOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHH....verrated. I caught lots of heat when he was on a hot streak for a while, but it never lasts because he's a streaky, inaccurate, small QB who can't take a hit.

 

[MHSL82]

Yep. Vick's fumbled more than any QB I can remember.

And he's had only 1 season in which he played in all 16 regular season games (and that was one of his worst seasons). He's missed 27% of his starts with the Eagles.

And it seems like he's made the probowl every year.

He is OOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHH....verrated. I caught lots of heat when he was on a hot streak for a while, but it never lasts because he's a streaky, inaccurate, small QB who can't take a hit.

But Kelly taught him to not get hit to avoid injuries, to be consistent to avoid streakiness, to be more accurate to avoid inaccuracy, and that he should be bulkier to take a hit (in case he forgot about avoiding hits). He has it solved - he can read defenses (just ask him), has fixed these issues like realizing he should tuck the ball, and no more deep plays that take time to develop so he won't have to hold on the ball too long. And he's not sensitive. He's bristly.

 

[MHSL82]

This claim by the author is slanted. As how he looks at it doesn't feel solid to me.

Perhaps the biggest cause for concern should be among 49er fans. Colin Kaepernick, our No. 1 rated player when kept clean, drops an enormous 61.7 QB rating points when hurried — only Brady Quinn drops more. Additionally, Josh Freeman will need to do far better in his 2013 contract year if he wishes to remain a Buccaneer, and most of that is based on how he performs under pressure.

My take: Thing is, he was the highest QB without pressure, so that leaves a lot of room for dropping when pressured. But he was 11th overall when pressured - so this article doesn't seem that relevant. If he had been 10th without pressure, the dropoff would be smaller - would that have been better? No. He's the best without pressure and pretty good with pressure. Will get even better to a certain degree over the years. With a full off-season this will improve, IMO, that improvement could start right away. Kaepernick will improve in the two charts, but the distance between the two has nothing to do with being good or bad. (Ryan Tennehil was 5th and 27th, but the difference was small, so he's 2nd and not singled out? I mean, he is better ranked in pressured over not pressured, but my point is being lower on one end doesn't hurt?)

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/21/neils-nfl-daily-may-21-2013/

Does anyone see anything of value in the third chart?

 

[Bemular]

This claim by the author is slanted. As how he looks at it doesn't feel solid to me.



My take: Thing is, he was the highest QB without pressure, so that leaves a lot of room for dropping when pressured. But he was 11th overall when pressured - so this article doesn't seem that relevant. If he had been 10th without pressure, the dropoff would be smaller - would that have been better? No. He's the best without pressure and pretty good with pressure. Will get even better to a certain degree over the years. With a full off-season this will improve, IMO, that improvement could start right away. Kaepernick will improve in the two charts, but the distance between the two has nothing to do with being good or bad. (Ryan Tennehil was 5th and 27th, but the difference was small, so he's 2nd and not singled out? I mean, he is better ranked in pressured over not pressured, but my point is being lower on one end doesn't hurt?)

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/21/neils-nfl-daily-may-21-2013/

Does anyone see anything of value in the third chart?

The better question is, does anyone see anything of value on any of the tables? The third table simply shows the difference between the first two.

I gotta say, PFF rarely disappoints when it comes to producing statistical comedy and this analysis offers no exception.

As always, I like the 'idea' behind what PFF is 'attempting' to produce, however, their end results generate far more questions (and head shaking) than answers. This entire analysis in particular is just pathetic...Ugh!

 

[MHSL82]

The better question is, does anyone see anything of value on any of the tables? The third table simply shows the difference between the first two.

I gotta say, PFF rarely disappoints when it comes to producing statistical comedy and this analysis offers no exception.

As always, I like the 'idea' behind what PFF is 'attempting' to produce, however, their end results generate far more questions (and head shaking) than answers. This entire analysis in particular is just pathetic...Ugh!

You're right. None if the charts seemed to be that valuable, but I thought ehh about the first two. The conclusion of the third was the worst because Kaep could have avoided it by being worse without pressure - the difference would have been smaller and thus, the author wouldn't have said he had a big drop.

I asked about value because others here have more knowledge about statistical significance. I saw none but wanted to check.

 

[Bemular]

You're right. None if the charts seemed to be that valuable, but I thought ehh about the first two. The conclusion of the third was the worst because Kaep could have avoided it by being worse without pressure - the difference would have been smaller and thus, the author wouldn't have said he had a big drop.

I asked about value because others here have more knowledge about statistical significance. I saw none but wanted to check.

You saw correctly.

 

[Vitamike]

You claim you "believe in the sophomore slump". However, in saying that you make it seem like all Qb's who have a good first year will automatically decline in their second season. Isn't it a bit of a slippery slope to assume all rookie QB's who have a good freshmen year will automatically have a sophomore slump because of it?

Sure it's a slippery slope but I don't think it's exclusive to ALL QB's. We can look through history and find QB's who had pretty good rookie campaigns and then followed it up with solid sophomore years. It's just the law of averages falls heavily on the slump side as I know it. You know I did leave out Luck as the exception, kind of shows I don't see it as a 100 percent thing. A lot has to do with the team these rookie QB's are on and the Colts have been a very good team for a long time, the 9ers just have found recent success since Jimbo came aboard and the Sehawks are trying to follow you guys as so are the Redskins.

I just find it unusual that you assume Bradford will finally have a good season, but all other QB's in the NFC West (including two of the favorites to win the NFC) will not. You make a couple of good points. I'm just trying to say that would obviously be your ideal scenario.

Well first off, they don't name Rookie QB's 'Rookie of the Year' if they never had a 'good season', second of all the struggles the Rams offense had last year, Sam had a better year then he had his rookie year. What I assume is he will have a better year with the improvements the Rams made to the OL, the talent level improvement at WR & TE and last not having to learn his fourth playbook in four years, in other words, he gets the same system back under Brian Shottsy. Those will have an impact on Sam's perfromance. But I guess the main reason I feel this way is because I think Sam Bradford is the best QB in the NFC West, some of this is by default because I haven't seen enough of Colin or Russel and Carson is on the down side of his career.

McCoy has to beat out my boy Scott Tolzein. That won't be as easy as people think. While I expect McCoy to fit better in our West Coast Offense, I am looking believe Tolzein will win that battle. Time will tell.

Could be numone9er, however I'm thinking Colt is a pretty darn good football QB who started a lot of NFL games on a pretty crappy team. Put him in 9ers gear with your squad and suddenly he's not half the slouch a lot make him out to be. You know he's kind of in Sam Bradford shoes, played on a crappy team with no protection or weapons hard for the pocket QB to flourish under those cirumstances. If he gets a chance to start a few games this year due to injury, you could find yourselves with a pretty good trade options by the end of the year and your boy Tolzein will move back behind Colin in the depth chart.

 

[TobyTyler]

Kaepernick can make a vast improvement. Clock management and pre-snap adjustments.

That'll come. You don't see that at Nevada.

 

[TobyTyler]

Jay Cutler. He needs his line and his receivers to stay healthy.

 

[NinerSickness]

Jay Cutler. He needs his line and his receivers to stay healthy.

You think his line will be better than last year? They did draft Kyle Long, but do you really expect one rookie OL to make that craptastic OL even a decent one?

 

[TobyTyler]

You think his line will be better than last year? They did draft Kyle Long, but do you really expect one rookie OL to make that craptastic OL even a decent one?

I was under the impression that 4 of his 5 linemen were hurt when they played the 49ers. Of course, so was Cutler.