Which QB will make a vast improvement?

[Bemular]

Good analysis, Bem. I like that you covered both possibilities, the reasons for both, as well as state your opinion. None of us could agree on every single thing, but this was a great analysis, IMO.

Here you go...

Alex Smith already becoming leader of Chiefs

 

[deep9er]

Here you go...

Alex Smith already becoming leader of Chiefs

yep, good stuff.

in order for any QB to succeed, he needs teammates to buy in.

 

[Bemular]

yep, good stuff.

in order for any QB to succeed, he needs teammates to buy in.

He seems to be off to a good start; I hope it continues for him for a very long time.

 

[deep9er]

He seems to be off to a good start; I hope it continues for him for a very long time.

agree, he earned it and deserves it......as long as it isn't against the 49ers.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Matty Ice was looking a bit edgey in the pocket by the end of that NFC championship game and we held them for a long time with no points in the 2nd half.

A little edgy and a little injured.

 

[Bemular]

agree, he earned it and deserves it......as long as it isn't against the 49ers.

He certainly has - but I agree - not against us. He'll get a few snaps against us in pre-season and I'm sure the media will hype the crap out of that game even if it is just a pre-season game.

 

[MHSL82]

He certainly has - but I agree - not against us. He'll get a few snaps against us in pre-season and I'm sure the media will hype the crap out of that game even if it is just a pre-season game.

So maybe this, the Peyton Manning spurning us (though that worked out for the best), possible Super Bowl matchup (w/Broncos), and the conditional draft pick turning into a second if KC's wins meet or exceed 8 wins, will allow you to root against your secondary team (Broncos) when they play the Chiefs?

 

[MHSL82]

Here you go...

Alex Smith already becoming leader of Chiefs

Thanks, Bem.

 

[Bemular]

Thanks, Bem.

I figured you would like that one - Here's to many more just like that or better

 

[Bemular]

So maybe this, the Peyton Manning spurning us (though that worked out for the best), possible Super Bowl matchup (w/Broncos), and the conditional draft pick turning into a second if KC's wins meet or exceed 8 wins, will allow you to root against your secondary team (Broncos) when they play the Chiefs?

Haha! I have thought about those match-ups and how I will respond. My first thoughts are that I want the Broncos to win but I want Alex to put career numbers in each game. We'll have to see if that changes as the season unfolds.

 

[Bemular]

Im gonna say that Joe Webb will complete a pass or two this year. Which will be light years ahead of what he accomplished in that playoff game last season.

If he does it may be only a pass or two - Minny just moved him to WR.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

This article seemed to tie in with this thread:

Cam Newton poised for breakout year - NFC South Blog - ESPN

Gotta take exception with a few things here. Specifically this bit:

Yeah, I’ll even step out on a limb and say [Newton] has a better 2013 season than Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck and RG III.

Why?

Several reasons pop to mind, but let’s start with this -- Newton has more all-around talent than any of those guys.

Luck can pass nicely, but opposing defenses don’t have to game plan for his running ability. Wilson, RG III and Kaepernick each have some throwing ability, but they aren’t pure pocket passers, and their big 2012 seasons came largely because of their mobility.

Newton is capable of more than any of those guys, because he’s as mobile as RG III, Kaepernick and Wilson. At the same time, he’s as good a pocket passer as Luck.

First, more physical ability than Kap? I don't know if that's true. Cam is extremely physically talented, no doubt, but Kaepernick's pure athleticism compares very favorably, though Cam is a bit bigger (3/8" taller and 15 pounds heavier). And I'm not sure that Cam has a stronger arm.

The part I take more exception with, though, is claiming that Kap and Wilson were successful because of their mobility. Wilson's mobility helped him in that he was able to move around in the pocket, but he didn't run all that much. Far less than Cam did in either of his first two seasons. Kap ran more, but he also showed he can play effectively from the pocket.

And I'm sorry, but Cam Newton is suddenly a great pocket passer? Are you kidding me? He's been better in that area than many thought he would be, but the same can easily be said of Kap and Wilson. And Cam ran far more often than those two. Putting him on the level we would expect for Luck in his second season is awfully generous.

 

[Vitamike]

I'll start with the QB's I think will make a vast improvement from last year.

1. Michael Vick - I will go out on a limb here and pick this dude because of his talent and change of scenery. The speed of the game under Kelly will give Vick opportunities he didn't have under CMH. This pace alone may keep him off IR or missing games. Also the 'threat' of Barkley as the No. 2 or even Nick Foles (Two college QB's who can bring some pressure to the competition) may push Vick to new heights this year over the past.

2. Sam Bradford - Yep the homer pick but come on, the dude's in his first season returning under the same OC. I remember a guy like that who IMO has less talent and did pretty good for you guys. Also Sammie has an OL that can actually go to other teams as starters for the first time in his career from last year save one or two guys. Last, just look at the weapons added to the passing game, enough for me to add Bradford to this list.

3. Matt Stafford - This team had one of those season two years ago where the played over there talent level and regressed some last year. I think they get some of that back as do teams like this who make a large jump and set back a bit. This alone should give Matt a vast improvement from last year.

4. Cam Newton - This guy ready to have another good year (Like his rookie year). He now has film on how defenses have adjusted to his game and the skills to take advantage. This is a respective pick however, as Cam was in full dysfunction by the end of his sophomore year and should vastly improve over last year.

Honorable mentions...

Ben Roethlisburger, injuries hurt him.
Philip Rivers, new scheme so he may thrive with his talent.


I really do believe in the sophomore slump. That said, since we are comparing last years stats to this years stats I will start with those who may decline.

Sorry 9er fans I do put Kaep in that bunch even though this is not truly his sophomore year.

Regressed QB starters

1. Russel Wilson - The dude had a great year! Finding that kind of success in year 2 will be a hard act to follow. I think the defense will give this guy more shots to win some games but the film on this guy is out and he will be on the short end more than not.

2. Ryan Tannehill - This dude will have some big troubles IMO, he may not even finish the season as the Miami starter and that is why he found himself on Vita's list at No. 2.

3. Colin Kaepernick - Sorry 9er fans.... I have him here for the same reasons I have Wilson, 2nd year in the league (As a starter) and the time and tape for defenses to figure this dude out. He will struggle compared to last year but will grow as a starting QB, if that makes sense. I'm thinking he may go 10-6 worst case as your starter...

4. RGIII - Another 2nd year guy who had just a wonderful year until the injury of course. I listed him last of the 2nd year dudes who found my list (Yes I know A. Luck didn't make my list, more on that below). The Shanahan's are a smart and talented duo and really got the most out of Robert. I expect a slight drop off and some of that will be to protect their QB a bit more so he can make it through the season healthy.

Dishonorable mentions:

Carson Palmer, I like this guy but even though his season will diminish from last year as a Raider, he will be a vast improvement in AZ.
Branden Weedon, See my sophomore slump opinion.

Last as a side note on Andrew Luck. I am of a firm opinion that the 'Suck for Luck' campaign was in full force in Indy. Yes they had some set backs going the season with out Peyton but if you ask me the writing is on the wall. For this reason, I think Luck has a pretty decent team around him and will not have a vast improvement or decline over last year. I do expect a small decline but that's about it. They will either just make the playoffs again or push to just miss 'em.

 

[numone9er]

I'll start with the QB's I think will make a vast improvement from last year.

1. Michael Vick - I will go out on a limb here and pick this dude because of his talent and change of scenery. The speed of the game under Kelly will give Vick opportunities he didn't have under CMH. This pace alone may keep him off IR or missing games. Also the 'threat' of Barkley as the No. 2 or even Nick Foles (Two college QB's who can bring some pressure to the competition) may push Vick to new heights this year over the past.

2. Sam Bradford - Yep the homer pick but come on, the dude's in his first season returning under the same OC. I remember a guy like that who IMO has less talent and did pretty good for you guys. Also Sammie has an OL that can actually go to other teams as starters for the first time in his career from last year save one or two guys. Last, just look at the weapons added to the passing game, enough for me to add Bradford to this list.

3. Matt Stafford - This team had one of those season two years ago where the played over there talent level and regressed some last year. I think they get some of that back as do teams like this who make a large jump and set back a bit. This alone should give Matt a vast improvement from last year.

4. Cam Newton - This guy ready to have another good year (Like his rookie year). He now has film on how defenses have adjusted to his game and the skills to take advantage. This is a respective pick however, as Cam was in full dysfunction by the end of his sophomore year and should vastly improve over last year.

Honorable mentions...

Ben Roethlisburger, injuries hurt him.
Philip Rivers, new scheme so he may thrive with his talent.


I really do believe in the sophomore slump. That said, since we are comparing last years stats to this years stats I will start with those who may decline.

Sorry 9er fans I do put Kaep in that bunch even though this is not truly his sophomore year.

Regressed QB starters

1. Russel Wilson - The dude had a great year! Finding that kind of success in year 2 will be a hard act to follow. I think the defense will give this guy more shots to win some games but the film on this guy is out and he will be on the short end more than not.

2. Ryan Tannehill - This dude will have some big troubles IMO, he may not even finish the season as the Miami starter and that is why he found himself on Vita's list at No. 2.

3. Colin Kaepernick - Sorry 9er fans.... I have him here for the same reasons I have Wilson, 2nd year in the league (As a starter) and the time and tape for defenses to figure this dude out. He will struggle compared to last year but will grow as a starting QB, if that makes sense. I'm thinking he may go 10-6 worst case as your starter...

4. RGIII - Another 2nd year guy who had just a wonderful year until the injury of course. I listed him last of the 2nd year dudes who found my list (Yes I know A. Luck didn't make my list, more on that below). The Shanahan's are a smart and talented duo and really got the most out of Robert. I expect a slight drop off and some of that will be to protect their QB a bit more so he can make it through the season healthy.

Dishonorable mentions:

Carson Palmer, I like this guy but even though his season will diminish from last year as a Raider, he will be a vast improvement in AZ.
Branden Weedon, See my sophomore slump opinion.

Last as a side note on Andrew Luck. I am of a firm opinion that the 'Suck for Luck' campaign was in full force in Indy. Yes they had some set backs going the season with out Peyton but if you ask me the writing is on the wall. For this reason, I think Luck has a pretty decent team around him and will not have a vast improvement or decline over last year. I do expect a small decline but that's about it. They will either just make the playoffs again or push to just miss 'em.

While I appreciate you taking the time to write this all out I have to think you may be a little biased. Bradford will have a breakout year but all 3 other starting qb's in the division will regress? Sorry, but I don't see that panning out the way I'm sure you would like as a Rams fan.

Also, it's going to be hard for Weeden to have a sophomore slump when he was already pretty bad. He's in a much better position to succeed this year with Norv calling the shots in Cleveland.

 

[Vitamike]

This article seemed to tie in with this thread:

Cam Newton poised for breakout year - NFC South Blog - ESPN

Gotta take exception with a few things here. Specifically this bit:

Yeah, I’ll even step out on a limb and say [Newton] has a better 2013 season than Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck and RG III.

Why?

Several reasons pop to mind, but let’s start with this -- Newton has more all-around talent than any of those guys.

Luck can pass nicely, but opposing defenses don’t have to game plan for his running ability. Wilson, RG III and Kaepernick each have some throwing ability, but they aren’t pure pocket passers, and their big 2012 seasons came largely because of their mobility.

Newton is capable of more than any of those guys, because he’s as mobile as RG III, Kaepernick and Wilson. At the same time, he’s as good a pocket passer as Luck.

First, more physical ability than Kap? I don't know if that's true. Cam is extremely physically talented, no doubt, but Kaepernick's pure athleticism compares very favorably, though Cam is a bit bigger (3/8" taller and 15 pounds heavier). And I'm not sure that Cam has a stronger arm.

The part I take more exception with, though, is claiming that Kap and Wilson were successful because of their mobility. Wilson's mobility helped him in that he was able to move around in the pocket, but he didn't run all that much. Far less than Cam did in either of his first two seasons. Kap ran more, but he also showed he can play effectively from the pocket.

And I'm sorry, but Cam Newton is suddenly a great pocket passer? Are you kidding me? He's been better in that area than many thought he would be, but the same can easily be said of Kap and Wilson. And Cam ran far more often than those two. Putting him on the level we would expect for Luck in his second season is awfully generous.

I'll chime in on this since all made my list posted above. First how is this guy measuring a 'better season'? Improved from last year, I'll agree, statistically well.. is that wins and losses? QBR? I dunno.

I'll put it like this...

Kaep 11-5 to 10-6, maybe 9-7
Newton 9-7 to 7-9, maybe 10-6
Wilson 10-6 to 8-8

Each playing a significant role in their teams records respectively.

 

[Bemular]

This article seemed to tie in with this thread:

Cam Newton poised for breakout year - NFC South Blog - ESPN

Gotta take exception with a few things here. Specifically this bit:

Yeah, I’ll even step out on a limb and say [Newton] has a better 2013 season than Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck and RG III.

Why?

Several reasons pop to mind, but let’s start with this -- Newton has more all-around talent than any of those guys.

Luck can pass nicely, but opposing defenses don’t have to game plan for his running ability. Wilson, RG III and Kaepernick each have some throwing ability, but they aren’t pure pocket passers, and their big 2012 seasons came largely because of their mobility.

Newton is capable of more than any of those guys, because he’s as mobile as RG III, Kaepernick and Wilson. At the same time, he’s as good a pocket passer as Luck.

First, more physical ability than Kap? I don't know if that's true. Cam is extremely physically talented, no doubt, but Kaepernick's pure athleticism compares very favorably, though Cam is a bit bigger (3/8" taller and 15 pounds heavier). And I'm not sure that Cam has a stronger arm.

The part I take more exception with, though, is claiming that Kap and Wilson were successful because of their mobility. Wilson's mobility helped him in that he was able to move around in the pocket, but he didn't run all that much. Far less than Cam did in either of his first two seasons. Kap ran more, but he also showed he can play effectively from the pocket.

And I'm sorry, but Cam Newton is suddenly a great pocket passer? Are you kidding me? He's been better in that area than many thought he would be, but the same can easily be said of Kap and Wilson. And Cam ran far more often than those two. Putting him on the level we would expect for Luck in his second season is awfully generous.

I can only agree with the comments I put in bold Nice wrap!

I can add only that I would take Kaps acumen over those other guys as well. I think hidden behind his clock management issues is a very smart, savvy and instinctual football player.

 

[Vitamike]

While I appreciate you taking the time to write this all out I have to think you may be a little biased. Bradford will have a breakout year but all 3 other starting qb's in the division will regress? Sorry, but I don't see that panning out the way I'm sure you would like as a Rams fan.

Also, it's going to be hard for Weeden to have a sophomore slump when he was already pretty bad. He's in a much better position to succeed this year with Norv calling the shots in Cleveland.

I expected as much numone9er, but I also said Palmer would have a better year than the previous AZ QB's have had but not as good as he had in Oakland. If you look at Palmer's numbers last year outside of the teams win/loss record. The dude had some pretty good numbers.

Also, I believe in the sophomore slump and it plays a role in my pick of Colin and Russell and the impact they will have on their teams. Both had phenomenal seasons last year, and the way the question was asked it was comparative to last year, right? Last the way that the Rams have worked their roster, and the fact that the Rams were in just about every game they played in save the NE game, tells me the changes they made through FA and the draft could have a huge impact on Sam's performance.

By the way, I know Weeden struggled last year but it was enough to keep McCoy at bay, and trust me, he will be your No. 2 come the start of the season. He was only a dishonorable mention on my list and I don't think Campbell or Lewis will challenge even if Weeden struggles. We both know too well that learning a new system in the sophomore season is more than even the No. 1's overall can overcome, don't we?

You know numone9er's you accused me bias however I supported all with reasoning. Hows about you providing a little in return otherwise your comment is purely biased, don't cha think?

 

[-AC-]

I think you have over looked one detail, one very large detail...

Jim Harbaugh! The coach that has only produced good QB's and has got the most out of them. To discount Kaep's upcoming season simply because its his sophmore campaign and opposing defenses will have figured him out is kind of a conviniant answer from an opposing fan of another team. The front office did go out and find more reliable targets for Kaep this off season, not to mention he will have this whole off-season to work as the starter. Something he hasn't had as of yet...

Anything can happen, but I like Kaep's chances of progressing in the upcoming season...

 

[-AC-]

I just want to mention one more thing...

The current coaching staff as well as the orginization of the 49ers has put together a structure that only helps the QB. It's a pyramid of many levels that focuses on the QB, and to help him suceed. There is a real emphasis on making the QB better. Take for instance the Eric Mangini hiring (as a consultant). It was a hire to help the QB. Thats right, they went out and hired a defensive minded coach (a very good defensive minded coach) to help the QB get better in prepration for different looks that opposing defenses will throw at the sophmore QB this upcoming season...

Not since the late 80's have I seen this orginization put this much effort into the QB position...

 

[numone9er]

I expected as much numone9er, but I also said Palmer would have a better year than the previous AZ QB's have had but not as good as he had in Oakland. If you look at Palmer's numbers last year outside of the teams win/loss record. The dude had some pretty good numbers.

Also, I believe in the sophomore slump and it plays a role in my pick of Colin and Russell and the impact they will have on their teams. Both had phenomenal seasons last year, and the way the question was asked it was comparative to last year, right? Last the way that the Rams have worked their roster, and the fact that the Rams were in just about every game they played in save the NE game, tells me the changes they made through FA and the draft could have a huge impact on Sam's performance.

By the way, I know Weeden struggled last year but it was enough to keep McCoy at bay, and trust me, he will be your No. 2 come the start of the season. He was only a dishonorable mention on my list and I don't think Campbell or Lewis will challenge even if Weeden struggles. We both know too well that learning a new system in the sophomore season is more than even the No. 1's overall can overcome, don't we?

You know numone9er's you accused me bias however I supported all with reasoning. Hows about you providing a little in return otherwise your comment is purely biased, don't cha think?

You claim you "believe in the sophomore slump". However, in saying that you make it seem like all Qb's who have a good first year will automatically decline in their second season. Isn't it a bit of a slippery slope to assume all QB's who have a good freshmen year will automatically have a sophomore slump because of it?

I just find it unusual that you assume Bradford will finally have a good season, but all other QB's in the NFC West (including two of the favorites to win the NFC) will not. You make a couple of good points. I'm just trying to say that would obviously be your ideal scenario.

McCoy has to beat out my boy Scott Tolzein. That won't be as easy as people think. While I expect McCoy to fit better in our West Coast Offense, I am looking believe Tolzein will win that battle. Time will tell.