What kind of season would Mahomes have to have to retire after it and still make the Hall of Fame?

[RememberTheKoy]

The shortest career played by any NFL player who has made the HOF is 54 games, Ernie Nevers. Played 5 seasons, just 54 games.

As of 2017 - just 11 HOF members played fewer than 8 seasons (including the currently mentioned Terrell Davis).

So - for Mahomes who is at 36 career games played including post-season - would need AT LEAST 2 more seasons from a longevity standpoint - and would need both seasons to be like 2018 statistically for him to stop playing and get any kind of consideration. Winning another SB would certainly aid that cause. If we are talking realistically how soon could he get into the HOF, my guess would be he'd need 2 more years of his 2018 stats to be in the discussion - and another SB win would not be a bad thing, either.

Otherwise, based on HOF precedent of players - you are looking at 7-8 seasons in which you are dominant for at least 4-5 of them as the best, or top 3, in the league each of those peak years.

Could he play next year, win a SB, dominate, and retire to the HOF? No. He would end up being the least tenured player in the HOF in terms of games/seasons - and for that, his stats had better be otherwordly. We're talking 6,500+ yards and 65+ TD's. As someone said before, Madden on rookie kind of numbers.

His stats are already outherwordly. Has his short time been more or less impressive than Ernie Nevers? I can't say because I don't know anythijg about Ernie Nevers but I'm guessing they possibly could be.

If Mahomes put up another year this season like he did in 2018 with 50+ TDs and capped it off with a second straight SB win and SB MVP and then something tragic happens ending his career I absolutely think that 3 year window of total dominance and winning is enough to get him in.

 

[Wamu]

If for whatever reason either by choice or circumstance that Mahomes retired after next season do you think it is possible for him to make the Hall of Fame? Has he done enough already and if not what would he have to do next year for his short legacy to be so mythical that he still makes it in despite only 3 playing years?


It would even less of a window than Terrell Davis but similiar situation.

I think if Mahomes wins MVP next season as well as the Super Bowl & Super Bowl MVP again then he could retire and be in the Hall of Fame within the decade. I think it might even be possible if he either just won the Super Bowl but not regular season MVP or he just won MVP but not the Super Bowl.


I almost think he could retire tomorrow and he would still eventually get in.

He's played in only 31 regular season games. And the Davis comparison is just bad. TD's career was ended by injury.

 

[DHoey]

The Texas Tech HOF?

 

[RememberTheKoy]

View attachment 247139

He's played in only 31 regular season games. And the Davis comparison is just bad. TD's career was ended by injury.

And what if he has another great championship year and then he has some off field injury that ends his career?

 

[Wamu]

And what if he has another great championship year and then he has some off field injury that ends his career?

An injury? He's not Carson Wentz.

 

[rmilia1]

Terrell Davis is a terrible example and probably shouldn't be in even though he carried Horseface. RB's don't last as long and can get in with a great 3-4 year stretch possibly.

This will be Mahomes' 3rd year in the league lol...no shot even with an amazing season.

4th year but only 3rd with significant time

One could argue Mahomes has carried KC even more than Davis did Den given how bad KC has been on and the fact they hadnt even made an AFC title game pre Mahomes while Denver had made 3 SBs pre TD.

One more SB and MVP and i would think hes locked honestly

 

[CaptainStubing]

but, on a more serious note...... are Wentz and Dak already hall of famers?

 

[Rock Strongo]

4th year but only 3rd with significant time

One could argue Mahomes has carried KC even more than Davis did Den given how bad KC has been on and the fact they hadnt even made an AFC title game pre Mahomes while Denver had made 3 SBs pre TD.

One more SB and MVP and i would think hes locked honestly

KC has had 6 losing seasons since 2004. alex smith took them to the playoffs the 3 years prior to mahomes starting.

 

[rmilia1]

KC has had 6 losing seasons since 2004. alex smith took them to the playoffs the 3 years prior to mahomes starting.

Yep

 

[Rock Strongo]

Yep

well, the 3 years prior to davis, the broncos had been to the playoffs 1 time.

8-8
9-7
7-9
8-8 (davis shows up, 95)
then
13-3
12-4
14-2

and 2 titles

so, the "mahomes has carried them more than davis" is misguided IMO. denver, with elway, was a pedestrian team for those years. they needed davis to carry them to those 12+ win seasons and titles. KC went to the playoff the 3 years prior to mahomes starting. he took over a playoff team.

 

[GNG]

 

[rmilia1]

well, the 3 years prior to davis, the broncos had been to the playoffs 1 time.

8-8
9-7
7-9
8-8 (davis shows up, 95)
then
13-3
12-4
14-2

and 2 titles

so, the "mahomes has carried them more than davis" is misguided IMO. denver, with elway, was a pedestrian team for those years. they needed davis to carry them to those 12+ win seasons and titles. KC went to the playoff the 3 years prior to mahomes starting. he took over a playoff team.

Maybe? Denver also had elite defenses those years and a HoF QB.

KC has maybe one other HoF type guy ( Kelce ) and a below average D.

 

[jarntt]

There is no one to compare with Mahomes because all great QBs played more seasons. Maybe Warner is the most similar? He came on the scene with a bang. It took Warner 3 years to get voted in and you can make a case that his early good years (and considering they were 20 years ago) are somewhat comparable to Mahomes. Not as good of course from a #'s perspective, but looking at era and accolades - 2 MVPs and 2 SBs (1 win). 41 TDS was big in 1999. Only two QBs had more than 26. Plus Warner had more longevity than Mahomes so far, more counting stats and a couple more good years later on added in. You can make the case that the middle of Warner's career hurt him more than if he retired, but the point is he wasn't getting sniffed by the HOF after his first few good years

 

[RememberTheKoy]

There is no one to compare with Mahomes because all great QBs played more seasons. Maybe Warner is the most similar? He came on the scene with a bang. It took Warner 3 years to get voted in and you can make a case that his early good years (and considering they were 20 years ago) are somewhat comparable to Mahomes. Not as good of course from a #'s perspective, but looking at era and accolades - 2 MVPs and 2 SBs (1 win). 41 TDS was big in 1999. Only two QBs had more than 26. Plus Warner had more longevity than Mahomes so far, more counting stats and a couple more good years later on added in. You can make the case that the middle of Warner's career hurt him more than if he retired, but the point is he wasn't getting sniffed by the HOF after his first few good years

The mid-career of Warner is what hurt him when he fell from grace to become this journeyman backup. And he still got into the Hall of Fame but his mid career was definitely a stench that hurt him when obviously he deserved to go in.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Maybe? Denver also had elite defenses those years and a HoF QB.

KC has maybe one other HoF type guy ( Kelce ) and a below average D.

19th. 1992
10th 1993
25th 1994
17th 1995

Thats where denvers defense ranked (pts) over the span i mentioned.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Why would he retire next year when he has a chance to become the GOAT and bank 500mil? Injuries aside.

 

[PDay8810]

Why would he retire next year when he has a chance to become the GOAT and bank 500mil? Injuries aside.

GREAT POINT...this is why I posted what a stupid ass thread on page 1

 

[RememberTheKoy]

GREAT POINT...this is why I posted what a stupid ass thread on page 1

What if he gets in a car or plane crash or some boating accident? What if he is a riding a horse and he doesn't notice a tree branch? What if he is sight seeing in Vietnam and he stands on a 50 year old landmine? What if he is walking in a street and an earthquake causes a fixture on a building to fall on top of him? What if a rare genetic disorder that he had no idea he even had kicks in aggressively? What if he is blindsided by a drunk driver? What if he drowns while on vacation trying to save someone else's kid stuck in a tide in the Mediterranean Sea? What if he has actually been killing people this whole time dating back to college and he again kills his girlfriend's sister's boyfriend but does so a few blocks away from his house where cell phone tower pinging has him and then fails to destroy all of the security footage of him coming home and reacting to it?


A lot of shit can happen. This thread just dances with the what if scenario of it all even though it is all very unlikely but the debate of it interesting due to the level of greatness that he has started his career with.

 

[Manster7588]

What if he gets in a car or plane crash or some boating accident? What if he is a riding a horse and he doesn't notice a tree branch? What if he is sight seeing in Vietnam and he stands on a 50 year old landmine? What if he is walking in a street and an earthquake causes a fixture on a building to fall on top of him? What if a rare genetic disorder that he had no idea he even had kicks in aggressively? What if he is blindsided by a drunk driver? What if he drowns while on vacation trying to save someone else's kid stuck in a tide in the Mediterranean Sea? What if he has actually been killing people this whole time dating back to college and he again kills his girlfriend's sister's boyfriend but does so a few blocks away from his house where cell phone tower pinging has him and then fails to destroy all of the security footage of him coming home and reacting to it?


A lot of shit can happen. This thread just dances with the what if scenario of it all even though it is all very unlikely but the debate of it interesting due to the level of greatness that he has started his career with.

If he got hurt today, he's not in the HOF. I don't think he needs 10 more years, nor does he need another SB.6 maybe 7 more years as a top 5 will earn him a spot.

Now on the other hand, what if all his magic has been spent and he turns out to be a middling 14 to 18 range QB for the rest of his career? Is he still in the HOF?

 

[RememberTheKoy]

If he got hurt today, he's not in the HOF. I don't think he needs 10 more years, nor does he need another SB.6 maybe 7 more years as a top 5 will earn him a spot.

Now on the other hand, what if all his magic has been spent and he turns out to be a middling 14 to 18 range QB for the rest of his career? Is he still in the HOF?

Thread isn't about if he got hurt today. It's about if he got hurt after this upcoming season.


As for your question depends on the length of the career. If he plays to 40 as a middling QB he will still compile the stats to go with the early success so yes.