What is the market for Julio Jones?

[night]

In 2015 he is going to get 10.176 million dollars but he'll be a free agent in 2016. It's very likely Atlanta gives him an extension this offseason after the draft is over. With Jeremy Maclin receiving 11 million dollars per year and Calvin Johnson receiving 16 million per year (Calvin's contract is back loaded) I have to imagine Julio will be somewhere between.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

Base salary around $75mil/5yrs is most likely but could be worth upwards of $90-100mil. Considering his injury history, I would think Julio will go with a team-friendly contract. Something more front loaded with a fat signing bonus & guaranteed money to lower the cap hits.

Just a guess though

 

[night]

Base salary around $75mil/5yrs is most likely but could be worth upwards of $90-100mil. Considering his injury history, I would think Julio will go with a team-friendly contract. Something more front loaded with a fat signing bonus & guaranteed money to lower the cap hits.

Just a guess though

I would imagine you're right about getting a good bit up front. Atlanta didn't do much in free agency and they still have about 19.5 million left to spend on players in the draft, anything else they get in free agency, and to give to Julio. If I understand it correctly signing bonuses can be spread throughout a contract against the cap so that won't be much of a problem if he stays healthy. If he retires from an unfortunate incident or gets traded the whole bonus or what is remaining of the bonus counts against the cap in the next season. So if Atlanta is worried about the length of his career due to injury issues a large signing bonus could be a gamble because instead of say maybe a 12 million hit it could be in the 20's or higher. They could still back load the guaranteed money and release him if his career is shorter than the contract too which would be cap friendly.

 

[PDay8810]

Just add this guy to the two current top end fa's wide outs currently tagged.

Beats me but I still think the wide receiver position doesn't define professional football as I've known it. Seattle & NE kinda emphasis the point.

 

[night]

Just add this guy to the two current top end fa's wide outs currently tagged.

Beats me but I still think the wide receiver position doesn't define professional football as I've known it. Seattle & NE kinda emphasis the point.

Dez Bryant is likely to get paid in that range as well. I've heard speculation that Atlanta will wait to see where Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are with their contracts before they give Julio their offer.

 

[ducky]

Next offseason Bryant, Jones and D Thomas will all sign contracts that will be slightly larger than Megatron's deal.

The cap is skyrocketing and player salaries for top players will be soon to follow. Just like Suh, all of these guys on the open market could find a deal worth close to $20M per.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I would imagine you're right about getting a good bit up front. Atlanta didn't do much in free agency and they still have about 19.5 million left to spend on players in the draft, anything else they get in free agency, and to give to Julio. If I understand it correctly signing bonuses can be spread throughout a contract against the cap so that won't be much of a problem if he stays healthy. If he retires from an unfortunate incident or gets traded the whole bonus or what is remaining of the bonus counts against the cap in the next season. So if Atlanta is worried about the length of his career due to injury issues a large signing bonus could be a gamble because instead of say maybe a 12 million hit it could be in the 20's or higher. They could still back load the guaranteed money and release him if his career is shorter than the contract too which would be cap friendly.

I agree with Face in that Julio is likely to accept something less than the absolute max if the G$ is in the $45 to $50 mil range. I think he knows he's going to come out looking good whether he gets the max or not.

 

[night]

Next offseason Bryant, Jones and D Thomas will all sign contracts that will be slightly larger than Megatron's deal.

The cap is skyrocketing and player salaries for top players will be soon to follow. Just like Suh, all of these guys on the open market could find a deal worth close to $20M per.

Do you think it's really going to climb that fast? For a little while that might end up being more than most QBs get paid.

 

[FantasyBelowZero]

Just add this guy to the two current top end fa's wide outs currently tagged.

Beats me but I still think the wide receiver position doesn't define professional football as I've known it. Seattle & NE kinda emphasis the point.

Yeah. If you have a good QB and sucky WRs, the QB still makes the wide receivers look good. Seattle is a specific case. If you have good WRs, but a sucky QB, the team doesn't do very well. Case in point, Arizona...

 

[ducky]

Do you think it's really going to climb that fast? For a little while that might end up being more than most QBs get paid.

Yep.

Revenue is jumping and contracts will follow. TV money continues to flow in and get bigger.

Megatron signed his $16.5M per deal when the cap was $120M. The cap now is $143M. Next year it will likely be around $155M. In terms of cap % if Johnson were to sign his contract next offseason, his contract would have averaged about $21M a year (not really but kind of).

These WR's agents would be fools to ink a deal that wasn't Megatron money or more. All 3 of them are superstars who would most certainly get more than Megatron money on the open market.

The WR contract value right now in this league is laughably low. That is because Megatron and Fitz were the only legit superstars on long term deals at the position. To figure out how much the franchise tag was this year (the average of the top 5 contracts in the league) they had to look at contracts for pretty average WR's like Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson. That is why Dallas and Denver didn't sign their WR's to long term deals....the franchise tag value was too good to pass up. That won't be the case moving forward for much longer.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Yeah. If you have a good QB and sucky WRs, the QB still makes the wide receivers look good. Seattle is a specific case. If you have good WRs, but a sucky QB, the team doesn't do very well. Case in point, Arizona...

All a good QB requires is a WR that understands how to run the route. If you've got that the QB can work with anything. On top of that, good defenses keep teams relevant. Brady/Wilson have won basically all their championships on the back of a good D (4th quarter yah Brady drove down for 2 TDs, but the defense of NE shutting Wilson to two back to back 3 and outs is what even allowed Brady the time to do that - and let's not mention the amazing D stand by NE on the final drive).

 

[night]

Yep.

Revenue is jumping and contracts will follow. TV money continues to flow in and get bigger.

Megatron signed his $16.5M per deal when the cap was $120M. The cap now is $143M. Next year it will likely be around $155M. In terms of cap % if Johnson were to sign his contract next offseason, his contract would have averaged about $21M a year (not really but kind of).

These WR's agents would be fools to ink a deal that wasn't Megatron money or more. All 3 of them are superstars who would most certainly get more than Megatron money on the open market.

The WR contract value right now in this league is laughably low. That is because Megatron and Fitz were the only legit superstars on long term deals at the position. To figure out how much the franchise tag was this year (the average of the top 5 contracts in the league) they had to look at contracts for pretty average WR's like Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson. That is why Dallas and Denver didn't sign their WR's to long term deals....the franchise tag value was too good to pass up. That won't be the case moving forward for much longer.

It seems like if that trend continues it will eventually kill long-term contracts because if a player is chasing money they're going to want to have their deal restructured every few years. Lets say it continues to climb 12 million for the next 3 years. That is 36 million sitting there the team didn't have before for either newer talent or retaining the players already on the roster. Obviously other salaries will inflate as well but it will be interesting to see how teams handle this in the future.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

It seems like if that trend continues it will eventually kill long-term contracts because if a player is chasing money they're going to want to have their deal restructured every few years. Lets say it continues to climb 12 million for the next 3 years. That is 36 million sitting there the team didn't have before for either newer talent or retaining the players already on the roster. Obviously other salaries will inflate as well but it will be interesting to see how teams handle this in the future.

I don't think longer term contracts (guess I'm talking 4-5+ years) will ever be a dead concept.

Yah a player can hold out/skip OTAs, etc. but end of day it's in their interest to play and play to the best of their ability. You're only going to hurt yourself in free agency if you have an attitude or appear to be just showing up for a check.

If a lot of players start getting really pissy about contracts, guarantee teams are just going to start structuring contracts with more performance incentives/bonuses. Something similar to Hardy's contract where $1M is due upon attending workouts will start happening.

The only real leverage most of these guys get from holding out is setting a tone that basically states: "I'm not going to resign with this team." Which is pretty hilarious because the guys holding out are generally in their prime (hence the reason), are going to play regardless (trust me, if you're a Steelers fan, Brown will play and play well this year), and then get jailed by the franchise tag for 2 years until they're somewhat irrelevant lol.

Most owners I would imagine say: "Oh we will try and get a contract done and make sure both parties are happy!" but are thinking: "Okay, hold out. See you game 1 in prime form." The only thing that matters end of day is: "Can we afford that franchise tag?"

 

[ducky]

It seems like if that trend continues it will eventually kill long-term contracts because if a player is chasing money they're going to want to have their deal restructured every few years. Lets say it continues to climb 12 million for the next 3 years. That is 36 million sitting there the team didn't have before for either newer talent or retaining the players already on the roster. Obviously other salaries will inflate as well but it will be interesting to see how teams handle this in the future.

In a lot of ways long term deals will actually be more in vogue because there will be no other way to spread out the guaranteed money of a deal other than to get a guy to ink long term.

Right now we are talking about contracts in terms of average value. But the guaranteed money that is in each contract will also climb. I mean look at the Suh deal. How else to you spread out a $60M guarantee other than get a guy to sign for 5 or 6 years?

And that deal in just a couple of years will be the norm type of contract for top players at their position.

At least the NFL is phasing in their TV money so it doesn't screw with competitive balance much. The NBA's cap is going to jump in one single year. It basically means you won't see hardly any long term deals this summer as everyone will want to be a FA when all the new money hits the league.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

It seems like if that trend continues it will eventually kill long-term contracts because if a player is chasing money they're going to want to have their deal restructured every few years. Lets say it continues to climb 12 million for the next 3 years. That is 36 million sitting there the team didn't have before for either newer talent or retaining the players already on the roster. Obviously other salaries will inflate as well but it will be interesting to see how teams handle this in the future.

The cap is probably not going to jump that much in '16...I'm guessing $150 mil or so...in either case...teams will always need to spread the money out over the long term (4 to 6 yrs) and in some ways it helps the player as well.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Next offseason Bryant, Jones and D Thomas will all sign contracts that will be slightly larger than Megatron's deal.

The cap is skyrocketing and player salaries for top players will be soon to follow. Just like Suh, all of these guys on the open market could find a deal worth close to $20M per.

If I'm not mistaken, the new TV money kicked in '14 and the cap was adjusted this year...I'm not thinking the cap will jump the same level next year....That said...the players that move the needle are going to be cashing the biggest checks. AJ, Julio, and Bryant will all get deals in the $40-50 mil guaranteed range.

 

[night]

I don't think longer term contracts (guess I'm talking 4-5+ years) will ever be a dead concept.

Yah a player can hold out/skip OTAs, etc. but end of day it's in their interest to play and play to the best of their ability. You're only going to hurt yourself in free agency if you have an attitude or appear to be just showing up for a check.

If a lot of players start getting really pissy about contracts, guarantee teams are just going to start structuring contracts with more performance incentives/bonuses. Something similar to Hardy's contract where $1M is due upon attending workouts will start happening.

The only real leverage most of these guys get from holding out is setting a tone that basically states: "I'm not going to resign with this team." Which is pretty hilarious because the guys holding out are generally in their prime (hence the reason), are going to play regardless (trust me, if you're a Steelers fan, Brown will play and play well this year), and then get jailed by the franchise tag for 2 years until they're somewhat irrelevant lol.

Most owners I would imagine say: "Oh we will try and get a contract done and make sure both parties are happy!" but are thinking: "Okay, hold out. See you game 1 in prime form." The only thing that matters end of day is: "Can we afford that franchise tag?"

As it is some of top tier players are saying "I'm better than _____ who got paid ____". It may not come up every year since most players aren't that bitchy about it but it will likely happen as they get deeper into their contract if their impact on the game didn't diminish.

In a lot of ways long term deals will actually be more in vogue because there will be no other way to spread out the guaranteed money of a deal other than to get a guy to ink long term.

Right now we are talking about contracts in terms of average value. But the guaranteed money that is in each contract will also climb. I mean look at the Suh deal. How else to you spread out a $60M guarantee other than get a guy to sign for 5 or 6 years?

And that deal in just a couple of years will be the norm type of contract for top players at their position.

At least the NFL is phasing in their TV money so it doesn't screw with competitive balance much. The NBA's cap is going to jump in one single year. It basically means you won't see hardly any long term deals this summer as everyone will want to be a FA when all the new money hits the league.

I understand that they're typically back loaded. Calvin and Matt Ryan's contracts are like that. I don't think the cap money will climb at a flat rate since it hasn't in the recent past. If you go the long-term route it has to be coupled with a big fat signing bonus as insurance against the team cutting them before the salary starts increasing at the end though.

 

[PDay8810]

Yep.

The WR contract value right now in this league is laughably low. That is because Megatron and Fitz were the only legit superstars on long term deals at the position. To figure out how much the franchise tag was this year (the average of the top 5 contracts in the league) they had to look at contracts for pretty average WR's like Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson. That is why Dallas and Denver didn't sign their WR's to long term deals....the franchise tag value was too good to pass up. That won't be the case moving forward for much longer.

I don't agree with this at all. The Diva position gets their share and the game becomes arena football if their pay becomes QB like. The empire will crack

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I don't agree with this at all. The Diva position gets their share and the game becomes arena football if their pay becomes QB like. The empire will crack

I think what he's saying is the top 5 average right now makes the Franchise Tag price a relative bargain which I agree with.

If the franchise tag was $18-20 mil per season average...I think these teams would have some pause before slapping the tag on these guys...they would be trying harder to get a long term deal done imo.

 

[ducky]

If I'm not mistaken, the new TV money kicked in '14 and the cap was adjusted this year...I'm not thinking the cap will jump the same level next year....That said...the players that move the needle are going to be cashing the biggest checks. AJ, Julio, and Bryant will all get deals in the $40-50 mil guaranteed range.

Cap could hit $160 million in 2016 | ProFootballTalk

I don't think it will get quite to $160M next year but it will be $150M+ by a healthy amount.

The league is STRONG right now. I do think it starts to flatten out after that a little but we will continue to see the cap continue to grow. And salaries will follow. Especially since the standard contracts (rookie deals and the vet min contracts) aren't going to expand as much as the cap will expand (meaning there is a higher % of the cap available for top guys than what we have seen in the past).