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Cave_Johnson
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Okay I admit it. I was wrong about Idaho last week. I thought they were dead in the water the rest of the year. I thought it would only take one big mistake against UNLV for the team to fall apart and lose control of the game. So when Aaron Duckworth fumbled inside the UNLV 5 late in the third quarter with the Vandals up 3 I figured it was just a matter of time before UNLV took the game over. I was wrong. Idaho didn't fall apart. They persevered and came through in the clutch. Not only that, but they never trailed in regulation. UNLV had the lead for all of maybe 5 real time minutes during the first overtime before Matt Linehan hit Callen Hightower for the game winning TD.
What a win. First non-conference road win in something like 6 years and against a team most people (myself included) had them losing to. There is some life in this team, and there is some hope that Matt Linehan can get himself out of this rut he's in. And god damn is there a lot to like in the LB corps this year. Kaden Ellis, Ed Hall, and Tony Lashley have been very impressive as sophomores. The defense may still be giving up yards, but last week they made up for it with turnovers and key stops in the red zone. Oh and you can't forget Austin Rehkow's punting performance. Can't even remember how many times he pinned the Rebels inside their own 5.
Great team win, and one that will be key if this team wants to get to a bowl game.
Standing in Idaho's way this week are the Troy Trojans, a team Idaho defeated last year in what was easily one of the ugliest games of the season. Bradon Silvers didn't play in that one, but even without him the Trojans were still a late missed FG away from tying the game. Idaho's superior special teams won them that one. Austin Rehkow made 4/5 FGs and averaged 42.5 yards on 6 punts.
That said, I'm not expecting anything similar to last year's game this season. Troy is back on track having only lost one game by 6 to Clemson. This is clearly the best team in the Sun Belt right now.
I brought up the Trojan QB Brandon Silvers already. He will be on the field for this year's match up and that's going to be bad news for Idaho. I talked up Taylor Lamb a lot in the Sun Belt Preview thread but Silvers has probably impressed me the more thus far. Silvers spreads the ball around well, 16 players have at least 1 catch for Troy this year. However, only two have more than 5: Deondre Douglas and Emanuel Thompson. Look for those two to get the lion's share of targets.
Troy is no slouch running the ball either. Jordan Chun is having a solid year averaging 5.6 ypc. He'll be looking to repeat his 193 yard performance from his last visit to the Kibbie Dome.
On the other side of the ball the Trojans really feast on turnovers, leading the nation in interceptions. They're still vulnerable through the air though. Really their rush D has been better than the pass D in terms of yards. Luckily for Troy, that doesn't matter much when you're averaging 2+ interceptions per game.
For Idaho on offense it's the same as it's been the last several weeks. They'll go as Matt Linehan goes. Last week he started off poorly. He was throwing off his back foot, missing badly downfield, and struggling to hit guys in stride when flushed out of the pocket. Luckily he was able to settle down in the second half. He looked more confident. He stood strong in the pocket, got rid of the happy feet, and made some plays with his legs in a few key situations. Most importantly he took care of the ball. That's what he's going to need to do this week as well. That, and utilize TE Buck Cowan more. This offense is taking shot after shot down the sidelines while largely ignoring the middle of the field. That's where Cowan makes his living and where guys like Hightower and Onunwor can shine.
I mentioned that I was very impressed with Idaho's LB corps, and I am. But they are still young and as far as I can tell the defense as a whole is still getting gassed towards the end of games. This unit is much improved from last year but I have no doubt Troy is still going to get their yards. The bend but don't break philosophy is going to have to work here if Idaho wants a chance to win.
Speaking of that, the theme this week is "The Magnificent Seven". Of course that 7 refers to the seven points you get for a TD and an extra point. That's the first key to this one. The Vandals must take advantage of every redzone opportunity and come away with TDs. On the other side of the ball they have to make stops like they did last week against UNLV.
The other key is of course turnovers. Idaho won the turnover battle between these two last year 4-0 and barely came away with a win. They may need a similar margin to steal a victory in this one.
Imagine that. The keys are win the turnover over battle, stop your opponent in the red zone, and don't settle for FGs. Good thing I'm here to point that out.
Prediction:
Troy is vastly improved from last season. Their defense held Idaho in check last year and as I already mentioned all the issues Troy had with turnovers, injuries, and missed FGs were the main reason Idaho came away with a win. Idaho can make a game out of this, but it's hard for me to see them coming out with a W here. The Trojans may not lose another one all season the way they're playing.
Final Score
Troy 41
Idaho 20
On average that's about how all games have gone for both teams so this is guaranteed to be correct within a few points.
What a win. First non-conference road win in something like 6 years and against a team most people (myself included) had them losing to. There is some life in this team, and there is some hope that Matt Linehan can get himself out of this rut he's in. And god damn is there a lot to like in the LB corps this year. Kaden Ellis, Ed Hall, and Tony Lashley have been very impressive as sophomores. The defense may still be giving up yards, but last week they made up for it with turnovers and key stops in the red zone. Oh and you can't forget Austin Rehkow's punting performance. Can't even remember how many times he pinned the Rebels inside their own 5.
Great team win, and one that will be key if this team wants to get to a bowl game.
Standing in Idaho's way this week are the Troy Trojans, a team Idaho defeated last year in what was easily one of the ugliest games of the season. Bradon Silvers didn't play in that one, but even without him the Trojans were still a late missed FG away from tying the game. Idaho's superior special teams won them that one. Austin Rehkow made 4/5 FGs and averaged 42.5 yards on 6 punts.
That said, I'm not expecting anything similar to last year's game this season. Troy is back on track having only lost one game by 6 to Clemson. This is clearly the best team in the Sun Belt right now.
I brought up the Trojan QB Brandon Silvers already. He will be on the field for this year's match up and that's going to be bad news for Idaho. I talked up Taylor Lamb a lot in the Sun Belt Preview thread but Silvers has probably impressed me the more thus far. Silvers spreads the ball around well, 16 players have at least 1 catch for Troy this year. However, only two have more than 5: Deondre Douglas and Emanuel Thompson. Look for those two to get the lion's share of targets.
Troy is no slouch running the ball either. Jordan Chun is having a solid year averaging 5.6 ypc. He'll be looking to repeat his 193 yard performance from his last visit to the Kibbie Dome.
On the other side of the ball the Trojans really feast on turnovers, leading the nation in interceptions. They're still vulnerable through the air though. Really their rush D has been better than the pass D in terms of yards. Luckily for Troy, that doesn't matter much when you're averaging 2+ interceptions per game.
For Idaho on offense it's the same as it's been the last several weeks. They'll go as Matt Linehan goes. Last week he started off poorly. He was throwing off his back foot, missing badly downfield, and struggling to hit guys in stride when flushed out of the pocket. Luckily he was able to settle down in the second half. He looked more confident. He stood strong in the pocket, got rid of the happy feet, and made some plays with his legs in a few key situations. Most importantly he took care of the ball. That's what he's going to need to do this week as well. That, and utilize TE Buck Cowan more. This offense is taking shot after shot down the sidelines while largely ignoring the middle of the field. That's where Cowan makes his living and where guys like Hightower and Onunwor can shine.
I mentioned that I was very impressed with Idaho's LB corps, and I am. But they are still young and as far as I can tell the defense as a whole is still getting gassed towards the end of games. This unit is much improved from last year but I have no doubt Troy is still going to get their yards. The bend but don't break philosophy is going to have to work here if Idaho wants a chance to win.
Speaking of that, the theme this week is "The Magnificent Seven". Of course that 7 refers to the seven points you get for a TD and an extra point. That's the first key to this one. The Vandals must take advantage of every redzone opportunity and come away with TDs. On the other side of the ball they have to make stops like they did last week against UNLV.
The other key is of course turnovers. Idaho won the turnover battle between these two last year 4-0 and barely came away with a win. They may need a similar margin to steal a victory in this one.
Imagine that. The keys are win the turnover over battle, stop your opponent in the red zone, and don't settle for FGs. Good thing I'm here to point that out.
Prediction:
Troy is vastly improved from last season. Their defense held Idaho in check last year and as I already mentioned all the issues Troy had with turnovers, injuries, and missed FGs were the main reason Idaho came away with a win. Idaho can make a game out of this, but it's hard for me to see them coming out with a W here. The Trojans may not lose another one all season the way they're playing.
Final Score
Troy 41
Idaho 20
On average that's about how all games have gone for both teams so this is guaranteed to be correct within a few points.
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