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Here is information that shows the details on fumbling within the NFL and shows that the Patriots are average at fumbling in the year 2006 and earlier. Then in 2006 Brady and Manning push for the rule that teams be able to provide their own balls. Since the year 2007 the Patriots as a team are much better than any team in the fumbling statistic.
The thought here is that a ball that is less inflated would be easier to grab and hold onto when playing the game so there would be less fumbling if it would be possible to have lower inflated balls.
If you take time to read through this article full of fumbling details for the NFL before the 2006 rules change about suppllying your own footballs and then look at the stats for the Patriots after the rule change you will see a significant advantage for the Patriots. This information will suggest that since the rule change the Patriots have kept their footballs softer and easier to hold onto giving them significantly better fumbling statistics compared to the rest of the NFL comparing it to how much the Patriots fumbled before the rule change.
It is a longer article so did not post it all here so click the link to read it all:
Deflate-gate triggers stat spat as analysts attempt to solve why Patriots don't fumble - Yahoo Sports
PHOENIX – Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.
One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.
It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.
“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”
According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.
“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”
We all know correlation does not mean causation, but this is one whopper of a correlation. The Patriots were basically an average team in terms of fumbling the football, and then Brady pushed for a rule change, and then the Patriots suddenly become wizards at football control. And all this would be cool or quirky if we weren’t embroiled in a nationwide debate over whether the Patriots altered the footballs they bring to games.
This finding trickles down to individual players, in some cases. Kevin Faulk was drafted by the Patriots in 1999 and played in New England through 2011. Up until the 2007 season, Faulk had 23 fumbles. After that point, he had two. Danny Amendola had 10 fumbles in four seasons with the Rams, then came to New England and lost the ball only once in two years.
As for Brady himself, he had 59 fumbles in his first six seasons, and only 37 in his most recent seven seasons.
We all know correlation does not mean causation, but this is one whopper of a correlation. The Patriots were basically an average team in terms of fumbling the football, and then Brady pushed for a rule change, and then the Patriots suddenly become wizards at football control. And all this would be cool or quirky if we weren’t embroiled in a nationwide debate over whether the Patriots altered the footballs they bring to games.
This finding trickles down to individual players, in some cases. Kevin Faulk was drafted by the Patriots in 1999 and played in New England through 2011. Up until the 2007 season, Faulk had 23 fumbles. After that point, he had two. Danny Amendola had 10 fumbles in four seasons with the Rams, then came to New England and lost the ball only once in two years.
As for Brady himself, he had 59 fumbles in his first six seasons, and only 37 in his most recent seven seasons.
The thought here is that a ball that is less inflated would be easier to grab and hold onto when playing the game so there would be less fumbling if it would be possible to have lower inflated balls.
If you take time to read through this article full of fumbling details for the NFL before the 2006 rules change about suppllying your own footballs and then look at the stats for the Patriots after the rule change you will see a significant advantage for the Patriots. This information will suggest that since the rule change the Patriots have kept their footballs softer and easier to hold onto giving them significantly better fumbling statistics compared to the rest of the NFL comparing it to how much the Patriots fumbled before the rule change.
It is a longer article so did not post it all here so click the link to read it all:
Deflate-gate triggers stat spat as analysts attempt to solve why Patriots don't fumble - Yahoo Sports
PHOENIX – Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.
One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.
It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.
“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”
According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.
“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”
We all know correlation does not mean causation, but this is one whopper of a correlation. The Patriots were basically an average team in terms of fumbling the football, and then Brady pushed for a rule change, and then the Patriots suddenly become wizards at football control. And all this would be cool or quirky if we weren’t embroiled in a nationwide debate over whether the Patriots altered the footballs they bring to games.
This finding trickles down to individual players, in some cases. Kevin Faulk was drafted by the Patriots in 1999 and played in New England through 2011. Up until the 2007 season, Faulk had 23 fumbles. After that point, he had two. Danny Amendola had 10 fumbles in four seasons with the Rams, then came to New England and lost the ball only once in two years.
As for Brady himself, he had 59 fumbles in his first six seasons, and only 37 in his most recent seven seasons.
We all know correlation does not mean causation, but this is one whopper of a correlation. The Patriots were basically an average team in terms of fumbling the football, and then Brady pushed for a rule change, and then the Patriots suddenly become wizards at football control. And all this would be cool or quirky if we weren’t embroiled in a nationwide debate over whether the Patriots altered the footballs they bring to games.
This finding trickles down to individual players, in some cases. Kevin Faulk was drafted by the Patriots in 1999 and played in New England through 2011. Up until the 2007 season, Faulk had 23 fumbles. After that point, he had two. Danny Amendola had 10 fumbles in four seasons with the Rams, then came to New England and lost the ball only once in two years.
As for Brady himself, he had 59 fumbles in his first six seasons, and only 37 in his most recent seven seasons.
