Trade MadBum.....?

[Chewbaccer]

Sports talk in Atlanta has been calling for trading for Bumgarner for 2 months now.

I'd be down.

When Julio Teheran is the veteran in the rotation, you're open to a lot of things.

 

[tzill]

I'm never really for long term deals with pitchers, especially ones that start in the pitcher's 30s. They never really pan out. Heck, even the one I thought was about as safe as it could possibly be (Matt Cain) was bad. So I would rather not have Bumgarner signed for a long term deal after 2019. However, it feels weird to think about him in some other uniform. And if the Giants are going to be idiots and commit to some atrocious long term deal, where they essentially pay a player for what he's done in the past (like the Angels are doing with Pujols) then I would rather it be a guy for whom his past was in a Giants' uniform.

As far as trading him, I agree that what they could get in return isn't what they could have gotten a year ago or even last off season. I would hope the team wouldn't trade him just to get something back. If the deal was a B- prospect and one or two C prospects, then forget it. But if they could land an A prospect, a B prospect and one or two C prospects, then yes, please do it for the future of the franchise. However, I don't think a trade will happen at all. Not on a team that is not looking into a full re-build.

It does make me wonder if a Tampa Bay approach wrt SP makes sense. That is, sign budding stars to team friendly deals thru the SPs late 20s and then deal them for prospects with a year left. I wonder if it would work in this market?

Then again, TINSTAAPP

 

[SFGRTB]

Sports talk in Atlanta has been calling for trading for Bumgarner for 2 months now.

I'd be down.

When Julio Teheran is the veteran in the rotation, you're open to a lot of things.

Atlanta would be a team I'd be okay with, simply because I like their prospects

 

[LHG]

Atlanta would be a team I'd be okay with, simply because I like their prospects

Which of their prospects would make it a good trade, in your opinion?

 

[LHG]

It does make me wonder if a Tampa Bay approach wrt SP makes sense. That is, sign budding stars to team friendly deals thru the SPs late 20s and then deal them for prospects with a year left. I wonder if it would work in this market?

Then again, TINSTAAPP

But first, the org has to produce starting pitchers worth signing. Our org hasn't done that in quite some time. Andrew Suarez may be the best produced since Bumgarner.

 

[The Q]

OK this needs its own thread, it's the biggest question the team faces heading into next year.

The answer to this determines the direction they want to go.

Personally I think it's time to do so, but in the offseason. I agree with not dealing him this year, in the winter they can work teams and create a market.

I think it's time not just because they need a rebuild, it's time because we simply shouldn't give an almost 30 yr old pitcher 8 yrs $230 mil or whatever. Especially when that pitcher is showing weakening peripherals like fastball velocity and so on. His out rate on fastballs is way down too.

But there's a case to make for keeping him and I'm open to being persuaded. What do you guys think?

I 100% agree with you On not wanting to pay him that deal.

See Price, David as a classic case.

Both were ridden hard in their 20s.

Prices arm has not aged well, bum seems to be a freak, but i tend to take the more conservative play and not bet on the outliers.

 

[SFGRTB]

Which of their prospects would make it a good trade, in your opinion?

Mike Soroka and Austin Riley

In reality, they'd probably be lucky to get one of those guys, plus a more fringy guy like Bryse Wilson or Joey Wentz or Greyson Jenista.

The Braves are in an interesting position though because they don't have a ton of money tied up to their future (just Freddie Freeman) and could entertain a long-term deal for Bum. IDK how good their revenue stream is, though.

 

[calsnowskier]

Sports talk in Atlanta has been calling for trading for Bumgarner for 2 months now.

I'd be down.

When Julio Teheran is the veteran in the rotation, you're open to a lot of things.

That would require Bum at least making it to Atlanta in waivers. I have been shocked by some waiver clearings in the past, so who knows what would happen, but I wouldn’t expect him to make it through.

 

[Chewbaccer]

That would require Bum at least making it to Atlanta in waivers. I have been shocked by some waiver clearings in the past, so who knows what would happen, but I wouldn’t expect him to make it through.

If the Braves traded for him, it would be in the offseason.

Even if we win the East this year, we're not World Series contenders with or without MadBum.

 

[LHG]

If the Braves traded for him, it would be in the offseason.

Even if we win the East this year, we're not World Series contenders with or without MadBum.

You obviously didn't watch the 2014 World Series.

 

[calsnowskier]

You obviously didn't watch the 2014 World Series.

This is why I think his value was at its apex last year at the trade deadline, even with the injury. A team like the yanks wanting a FRESH Ace-level pitcher with proven postseason chops would pay any price.

 

[stanford the manford]

Key word there is “appears.” If you know with certainty the team is going to lose 90+ then blowing it up makes some sense. Otherwise you develop and try to contend.

you'll 'know with certainty' only after the fact and then it's too late.... it takes a bold fo to manage towards the future

 

[Mays-Fan]

You obviously didn't watch the 2014 World Series.

Or the 2014 and 2016 nl wildcard playoff games.

 

[msgkings322]

Or the 2014 and 2016 nl wildcard playoff games.

Just realized even year magic is REALLY over. In 2016 we at least made the playoffs...

 

[Mays-Fan]

Just realized even year magic is REALLY over. In 2016 we at least made the playoffs...

Meh. Nothing that winning 18 of the next 24 wouldn't turn around.

 

[The Q]

Just a very small small snippet from Joe Sheehan's premium newsletter (it is paid but this is like 2% of the entire thing...tops)

"It’s been four years since the Giants’ last title, two since their last playoff run. Next year, Buster Posey will be 32, Brandon Crawford will be 32, Evan Longoria will be 33, and Johnny Cueto will be watching. If this core wasn’t good enough in 2017 and 2018 -- and goes into next year basically needing an entire outfield -- what’s the chance it will be good enough in 2019? If there’s a team that might be the next Tigers or Orioles, holding on to a core a couple years too long and making the aftermath uglier than it needed to be, it’s the Giants."

 

[calsnowskier]

Just a very small small snippet from Joe Sheehan's premium newsletter (it is paid but this is like 2% of the entire thing...tops)

"It’s been four years since the Giants’ last title, two since their last playoff run. Next year, Buster Posey will be 32, Brandon Crawford will be 32, Evan Longoria will be 33, and Johnny Cueto will be watching. If this core wasn’t good enough in 2017 and 2018 -- and goes into next year basically needing an entire outfield -- what’s the chance it will be good enough in 2019? If there’s a team that might be the next Tigers or Orioles, holding on to a core a couple years too long and making the aftermath uglier than it needed to be, it’s the Giants."

Yes and no.

The core is no longer championship caliber. And the core cavalry (Bart, Ramos, Luciano) will not be coming until 2020 at the earliest (Bart) and 2021 (Ramos earliest) or later (‘23? for Luciano). But the OF COULD be competitive (Duggar in CF is set with Shaw, Williamson, Slater, Hernandez and Hanson battling for the corners) without any additions from outside. Belt is a question mark due to health and Craw, Longo and Posey are certainly not getting any younger. 2B may be open to competition due to Panik decline due to health issues.

The rotation, while not elite, could be somewhat competitive. Bum, Rodriguez and Samardzija are an adequate top 3 with Suarez, Kelly, Blach, Stratton and Anderson providing some depth, the team will still need to add probably 2 more starters (Holland likely coming back accounts for one of those two adds).

Again, there is not a championship core here. But outside of a complete collapse (like ‘17), this is not a BAD team. Unfortunately, I do see the potential of a mediocrity spiral coming without another ‘17 or two.

 

[The Q]

Yes and no.

The core is no longer championship caliber. And the core cavalry (Bart, Ramos, Luciano) will not be coming until 2020 at the earliest (Bart) and 2021 (Ramos earliest) or later (‘23? for Luciano). But the OF COULD be competitive (Duggar in CF is set with Shaw, Williamson, Slater, Hernandez and Hanson battling for the corners) without any additions from outside. Belt is a question mark due to health and Craw, Longo and Posey are certainly not getting any younger. 2B may be open to competition due to Panik decline due to health issues.

The rotation, while not elite, could be somewhat competitive. Bum, Rodriguez and Samardzija are an adequate top 3 with Suarez, Kelly, Blach, Stratton and Anderson providing some depth, the team will still need to add probably 2 more starters (Holland likely coming back accounts for one of those two adds).

Again, there is not a championship core here. But outside of a complete collapse (like ‘17), this is not a BAD team. Unfortunately, I do see the potential of a mediocrity spiral coming without another ‘17 or two.

And when those guys are 34/35....taking up the payroll...it can get a big ugly.

You're right that rotation should prevent some bottoming out over the next few years though.

 

[tzill]

But first, the org has to produce starting pitchers worth signing. Our org hasn't done that in quite some time. Andrew Suarez may be the best produced since Bumgarner.

Mike Soroka and Austin Riley

In reality, they'd probably be lucky to get one of those guys, plus a more fringy guy like Bryse Wilson or Joey Wentz or Greyson Jenista.

The Braves are in an interesting position though because they don't have a ton of money tied up to their future (just Freddie Freeman) and could entertain a long-term deal for Bum. IDK how good their revenue stream is, though.

I agree. Any trade with the Braves starts with Soroka and Riley. Then, they’d need to add in either someone like Pache or they’d need to take Shark in the deal.

 

[tzill]

you'll 'know with certainty' only after the fact and then it's too late.... it takes a bold fo to manage towards the future

I agree that with a team like the Giants, you’ll rarely ever be able to foresee 90+ losses. As far as the FO needing to be “bold,” you’re completely ignoring the attendance loss that would accompany blowing it up. For some FOs, that would be “bold,” for the Giants that would be “stupid.”