Top 5 P5 coaching jobs on the rise and Top 5 once elite but have fallen

[iowajerms]

ESPN Insider Haney: Five Power 5 jobs trending up
By Travis Haney

Last week, ESPN Insider ranked the FBS coaching jobs 1-129. Here are the five Power 5 programs with the most momentum and some insight as to why they're upwardly mobile. Plus, we've added five more schools with the best chance to make a leap by 2017.

1. Baylor Bears
Overall job rank: 22

Coaches and agents agree that no job profile has improved faster than Baylor, which surely would have been in the bottom third of Power 5 jobs -- likely even the bottom 10 -- a decade ago.

"When Art Briles took [the Baylor head-coaching job in 2008], no one wanted to go there," an agent told Insider, adding that BU circa 2007 was akin to how we currently perceive Iowa State and Kansas in the Big 12.

How bad was it? In its first 14 seasons in the Big 12, Baylor had 14 losing seasons -- including 13 with four or fewer victories.

Compared to the agent's thought, it would be a remarkably different story if the job opened tomorrow. There's McLane Stadium, the 2-year-old gem of a riverside facility standing as the symbolic rise of Baylor football. The program now has in-state recruiting cachet and is on the radar of recruits, especially skill players, from the beginning of their recruitment. It has Oregon-style appeal, but it's located in the middle of a hotbed for prospects.

Following Briles would be a difficult task for any coach, but it would sure beat preceding him.

2. Ole Miss Rebels
Job rank: 26

At some point in the past two or three years, Ole Miss stopped merely keeping pace in the SEC West and started to carve its place in the most competitive division in the sport.

The West is as competitive off the field as on it, so seeing significant facilities upgrades and a coach now making about $5 million a year provides proof that the gap between the Rebels and Alabama and LSU is as narrow as it's been in this modern era. That's carrying over to the field, where the Rebels have consecutive wins over Tide teams that have twice been in the playoff -- and won it once.

The spending has accentuated and accelerated coach Hugh Freeze's plan, particularly in recruiting. Ole Miss has drawn a blueprint to become a sustainable contender in the conference most difficult to break through.

3. TCU Horned Frogs
Job rank: 25

In Insider's complete FBS rankings, a dozen Group of Five programs leapfrogged power conference schools to make the top 65. Prior to its inclusion in the Big 12 in 2012, TCU would have been one of those mid-major upstarts ranked somewhere in the 40s. Now it's in the top 25 and climbing.

The past three ADs (Eric Hyman, Danny Morrison and Chris Del Conte) undoubtedly played huge roles in terms of support and providing a long-range facilities plan. The conjoined football and hoops complexes are unrecognizable from five years ago.

But make no mistake, the football rise is most closely linked to coach Gary Patterson's influence, which a future staff could look to build upon.

The next step for Patterson is demonstrating that the move to the Big 12 is opening recruiting doors for a school located ideally in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. It seems to be happening. After finishing with an average recruiting ranking of 43rd according to ESPN's RecruitingNation the previous three years, the Frogs jumped to No. 23 in 2016.

4. Louisville Cardinals
Job rank: 32

Louisville's move to the ACC in 2013 was mutually beneficial for the league and the football program, which now has a proper path to the playoff. Sure, dealing with division foes and current national powers Clemson and Florida State isn't ideal, but it's a much better situation than having virtually no shot at the playoff as a Group of Five program.

The infrastructure has been historically strong at Louisville. The administration had the program ready for a jump in class, and more improvements are on the way. Papa John's Cardinal Stadium was way ahead of its time when it opened in 1998. It saw renovations in 2009, and $55 million more will be dedicated for expansion and updates.

Recruiting is and has always been the drawback, but previous staffs have consistently leveraged talent in Florida and Georgia well enough to believe Louisville can find players in the South.

5. Michigan Wolverines
Job rank: 12

This is a job rebounding leaps and bounds after plenty of turmoil in both the head coach's and AD's offices. The brand is no longer ailing.

As we mentioned last week, the work interim AD Jim Hackett did to steady the department -- including getting the deal done with Jim Harbaugh -- was vital to turning around Michigan. And he helped land a permanent leader with promise; Warde Manuel's stint as AD is set to begin later this month.

Harbaugh's year-plus on the job, however heavily covered it has been, has done wonders in terms of creating visibility and recognition with this generation of players. Michigan is cool again. The staff following him could leverage what he's building now.

Five promising programs to watch for the 2017 rankings

Tennessee Volunteers
Job rank: 16

If not for the current Title IX lawsuit, which coaches are monitoring carefully, this job would likely land in the top 5 listed above. It remains to be seen if missteps were made, but the allegations threaten the leadership that has been improving in recent years. If the case is resolved without major issues, the support and facilities have been trending up for a few years now. But the cloud hovering is too ominous to blithely ignore.

Washington Huskies
Job rank: 27

Washington's facilities and support are strong, and it's in an underrated recruiting city and state. If coaches wondering about Oregon's future are correct, there's room for UW to make a move in the Pac-12 North.

Miami Hurricanes
Job rank: 21

Coaches and agents took notice when the Hurricanes broke the bank for Mark Richt and his staff. With better commitment, The U really might be on the way back. But it has to make game days better somehow.

Duke Blue Devils
Job rank: 52

Is David Cutcliffe, who just signed the country's No. 28 recruiting class in February, figuring out how to create Stanford East? You'd better believe programs such as Vanderbilt are paying attention to this model.

Maryland Terrapins
Job rank: 49

With Under Armour backing it, Maryland is an intriguing job. There's good local talent, too. It's a shame that it has to share a division with Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State.

 

[iowajerms]

ESPN Insider - Falling fast: Top 5 once-elite coaching jobs
By Travis Haney

As part of our examination and ranking of all Power 5 jobs, we have identified five programs on the rise. Here are some trending in the opposite direction in the minds of some coaches, administrators and agents.

First, a slight disclaimer: These are still very good jobs. They pay well and the quality of life at each location is quite high, as is the commitment to winning. However, in the coaching community, the perception is slipping. Some coaches would be reluctant to consider an offer from each of these jobs if they hypothetically all came open tomorrow.

Here's why:

1. Nebraska
2016 rank: 29

A recent media poll concluded that Nebraska was the No. 2 program in the country in the 1990s. Now it's the second-ranked job in the Big Ten West.

What changed? The recruiting game, in short. Money flooded into programs that were once afterthoughts on the recruiting landscape -- the two Mississippi schools, now spending gobs of cash, come to mind -- and Nebraska lost its footing with elite prospects.

That fallout has particularly been felt for the Huskers in the state of Texas, which was once a pipeline before the move from the Big 12 to the Big Ten. The 2016 recruiting class marked the first since 1983 that Nebraska didn't sign a single Texan. That's an alarming trend for any future staffs, even if the Big Ten West remains one of the country's weaker divisions.

The facilities and fan and administrative support are still incredible, but coaches are curiously watching how Mike Riley, who was kind of a fish-out-of-water hire, is able to find and assemble talent from a national recruiting base when the Nebraska brand doesn't carry nearly as much weight as it once did.

2. Penn State
2016 rank: 19

It might feel as if the program has moved past the Jerry Sandusky-related NCAA sanctions at this point, but the truth is that it hasn't really recovered, and understandably so.

The postseason ban was lifted two years ago and the scholarships have returned, but PSU cannot make up for the time and energy lost while Ohio State and Michigan State were distancing themselves in the Big Ten East. Even Michigan, as down as it was, didn't have to deal with a descent even close to how low the Lions dipped, and so it has been able to more quickly rebound with Jim Harbaugh.

That currently leaves Penn State in fourth in its own division, and it feels distant.

The difficulty of the division would be enough to alarm some prospective coaches, because the expectations still remain sky high. It's a frightening thought for a future staff if ace recruiter James Franklin is having trouble playing catchup to the division's top three. After all, this is a miracle worker who recently won nine games in consecutive seasons at Vanderbilt.

3. Oregon
2016 rank: 13

Mark Helfrich is still swimming upstream to prove himself as the caretaker of the program, with coaches around the country continuing to wonder if Oregon's success can be sustained without Chip Kelly and/or Marcus Mariota on campus.

The facilities and support are notably tremendous; they're why the Ducks are where they are. But Phil Knight's aid cannot change the fact that Eugene, Oregon, is far from a college football hub.

Its relative isolation -- particularly the distance from elite recruits in California -- is a sizeable disadvantage compared to other Pac-12 schools, including division rival Stanford. In particular, the physical gap becomes problematic concerning unofficial visits. Those bills are on the recruits' families to foot, so they'll more often choose easier and cheaper commutes to campuses. Fewer unofficial visitors often equal fewer high-end signees. It's true in places such as Pullman, Washington, and Lubbock, Texas, and it's true with Eugene.

Even Washington might have more staying power in the Pac-12 North since it's situated in a more populous locale, with better in-state talent surrounding it.

4. Oklahoma State
2016 rank: 30

If rival Oklahoma, with its brand power and tradition, is getting squeezed when it comes to recruiting in Texas, Oklahoma State is really going to have a hard time. And that's starting to set in, thanks in part to the rise of in-state programs such as Baylor and TCU. The Pokes' recruiting ranking has slipped each of the past four classes, going from No. 27 in 2013 to No. 46 in 2016.

Whether it's the uniforms or a super-booster's backing, there are often Oregon comparisons made to OSU. Much like Oregon and its geographical drawbacks, unless T. Boone Pickens can airlift the campus to a more populous and central location, this is not a program built to consistently compete in Lone Star State recruiting battles.

5. Auburn
2016 rank: 15

Coaches who have worked on the Plains talk about it being a great place, but also one that can sometimes become politically divisive.

There are too many boosters with too much influence, they say. With additional voices, there can be damaging clashes when it comes to major decisions.

This matters to coaches who would hypothetically consider Auburn. There has to be unified vision to compete in any major conference, let alone the difficult SEC West. The resources are most certainly there for Auburn to be competitive, but a coach would be less inclined to go there if he felt as if his opinion could be muted.

Others to monitor before the 2017 rankings:

Kansas State
2016 rank: 53

There's financial support, and AD John Currie is well regarded, but this job is simply ranked too highly -- out of respect for Bill Snyder, more than anything. If he retires and K-State opens later this year, we'll get a better sense that this program belongs somewhere closer to 65. Isolation similar to Eugene and Stillwater, with poor access to talented recruiting regions, is the primary reason.

Missouri
2016 rank: 40

Relatively new AD Mack Rhoades is widely respected, but those who know the setup say he walked into a department that needed reorganizing. Without Gary Pinkel's steady guidance, we might now see how difficult it's going to be for Mizzou to remain viable in the SEC.

Wisconsin
2016 rank: 23

If the school's leadership continues to thumb its nose at spending anywhere near the level of the conference's front-runners, it seems far-flung for the Badgers to remain nationally relevant. It definitely binds the head coach's hands.

 

[B_dub]

Haha. This is the only way Baylor will be #1 at something unless it's a crime study.

 

[iowajerms]

Maryland on the rise because of Under Armor?

 

[B_dub]

And Michigan's behind Louisville!!

 

[Across The Field]

Maryland on the rise because of Under Armor?

It's actually not far off. They've produced a decent amount of good recruits, and they're also not far away from Pennsylvania, Virginia and Ohio. Plus they have all the Under Armour money flowing. Honestly, it's not a bad gig.

 

[Olyduck]

Meh. been hearing about Washington Tennessee and Miami as being on the rise the last 5 years or so.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Haha. This is the only way Baylor will be #1 at something unless it's a crime study.

DGB and Mixon say hi

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

The fact that ESPN lists Michigan with Baylor, TCU, Louisville and Ole Miss is just as laughable as putting the job outside the top 10. And then they put us 5th behind those teams . Man ESPN, someone needs to find a new intern who's older than 13.

 

[B_dub]

DGB and Mixon say hi

 

[7Samurai13]

The fact that ESPN lists Michigan with Baylor, TCU, Louisville and Ole Miss is just as laughable as putting the job outside the top 10. And then they put us 5th behind those teams . Man ESPN, someone needs to find a new intern who's older than 13.

So you don't believe that Michigan has that much increased momentum?

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

So you don't believe that Michigan has that much increased momentum?

Of course I do, but I take this ranking as if to suggest Michigan was ever in the outside looking in.

 

[7Samurai13]

Of course I do, but I take this ranking as if to suggest Michigan was ever in the outside looking in.

I believe you are just looking through your maize and blue glasses and ignoring a decade of failure and wasted recruiting classes coming out of Ann Arbor. There has to be some significant decline when the AD is running buy two cokes get two free tickets promotion, fireworks, changing uniforms like your Oregon, hiring skywriters to fly over a rivals stadium and then lying about it.

 

[iowajerms]

The fact that ESPN lists Michigan with Baylor, TCU, Louisville and Ole Miss is just as laughable as putting the job outside the top 10. And then they put us 5th behind those teams . Man ESPN, someone needs to find a new intern who's older than 13.

Baylor - They were once bottom feeders of the Big 12. I remember a decade ago at Big 12 media days when a Baylor receiver said they were going to have a winning record and it was the LOL moment of the day. Now, they are usually in some argument to be in the CFP.

TCU - During the BCS Era, Boise State and TCU were the biggest BCS busters. They heard "if they played in a major conference, they wouldn't be so dominant. Well, they are in a major conference and they are pretty strong. They went from being a dominant mid major to a dominant major conference team.

Louisville - Kind of the same as TCU, but I probably would have Michigan above Louisville. Dominant mid major. Despite being in the Big East, they had no real true shot at going to the NCG.

Ole Miss - They had good years and bad years, but the past few years, they have been very strong. Beating Alabama back-to-back seasons helps. But this could be the best Ole Miss has ever been, if not, it is one of the best. Never really a big coaching program, now is.

Michigan - Never was a bad coaching job, but picked bad coaches. However, Harbaugh is bringing much value back to the job. UM is the only team in that article that is ranked in the top 20 in coaching job ranks. However where they were at the lowest is where teams like Baylor and TCU are at now. Michigan needed 1 good season to be back in this list, the others needed multiple seasons.

 

[Rolltide94]

The fact that ESPN lists Michigan with Baylor, TCU, Louisville and Ole Miss is just as laughable as putting the job outside the top 10. And then they put us 5th behind those teams . Man ESPN, someone needs to find a new intern who's older than 13.

You're right, Michigan shouldn't be on a list with Baylor, TCU, and Louisville...all those teams have won something in the last decade...

 

[Goldbug]

DGB and Mixon say hi

For your edification: Let me google that for you

 

[WizardHawk]

Meh. been hearing about Washington Tennessee and Miami as being on the rise the last 5 years or so.

So you are saying you don't agree with that assessment of UW? It's in a major metro area, has a brand new stadium with brand new state of the art facilities and is on one of the greatest settings in college football right on Lake Washington. Those were mentioned or at least alluded to. Doesn't matter if you buy into the program being on the rise or not.

And Oregon has been slipping as predicted/expected. This year's 5th year transfer QB better pan out or a lot of feathers are going to be rustled this coming year. No wonder they are listed on the decline. Once the new car smell wears off and recruits wake up to see they are in Eugene it's only going to get worse.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

I believe you are just looking through your maize and blue glasses and ignoring a decade of failure and wasted recruiting classes coming out of Ann Arbor. There has to be some significant decline when the AD is running buy two cokes get two free tickets promotion, fireworks, changing uniforms like your Oregon, hiring skywriters to fly over a rivals stadium and then lying about it.

And all of those don't matter in terms of landing top tier coaches.

 

[NDHoosier101]

Three B1G teams on the falling fast list. Time for Indiana to pick up the slack.
Being a runner up in the pinstripe bowl should springboard us to the playoffs in the next few years.

 

[4down20]

Is this thread basically saying - these would be good jobs if reality didn't exist?