Top 32 tournament C Rodriguez vs Carter

[obxyankeefan]

Top 32 players ranked by BRWAR(as of 6/18/15).

Catcher Bracket is:

1 J Bench 13
32 R Ferrell 1

16 T Munson 6
17 W Schang 0

8 B Dickey 3 Dickey will advance on higher seed
25 R Campanella 3

9 G Harnett 6
24 L Parrish 0

4 C Fisk 10
29 J Clements 0

13 G Tenace 1
20 J Kendall 7

5 Y Berra 7
28 R Martin 0

12 B Ewing 2 advances on seed
21 R Bresnahan 2

3 I Rodriguez 8
30 D McGuire 0

14 J Mauer 8
19 J Posada 9

6 M Piazza 11
27 V Martinez 0

11 T Simmons 11
22 D Porter 0

2 G Carter 11
31 S Lollar 0

15 E Lombardi 7
18 B Freehan 4

7 J Torre 6
26 S Burgess 2

10 M Cochrane 4
23 J Sundberg 1

1 J Bench 11
16 T Munson 0

8 B Dickey 5
9 G Harnett 2

4 C Fisk 12
20 J Kendall 0

5 Y Berra 7
12 B Ewing 0

3 I Rodriguez 8
19 J Posada 1

6 M Piazza 10
11 T Simmons 2

2 G Carter 10
15 E Lombardi 1

7 J Torre 0
10 M Cochrane 10

1 J Bench 9
8 B Dickey 0

4 C Fisk 3
5 Y Berra 10

3 I Rodriguez 10
6 M Piazza 3

2 G Carter 11
10 M Cochrane 4

1 J Bench 7
5 Y Berra 3

3 I Rodriguez
2 G Carter

1 J Bench

 

[obxyankeefan]

Ivan Rodriguez Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com
Beat Deacon McGuire, Jorge Posada, and Mike Piazza 26-4

Gary Carter Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com
Beat Sherm Lollar, Ernie Lombardi, and Mickey Cochrane 32-1

 

[obxyankeefan]

I wanted to go with Carter, but after looking at the stats which were close. I went with the eye test and remember Rodriguez being a better Defensive catcher.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

BA-Pudge wins(not close)
Pudge-Career=.296, Best=.347, #499+PA seasons better than average=8, MLB average=.271(.025)
Carter-Career=.262, Best=.294, #499+PA seasons better than average=8, MLB average=.262(0)

Power-Pudge wins(VERY CLOSE)
XBH%
Pudge-career=9.1, Best=14.9, #499+PA seasons=6, MLB average=7.7(1.4)
Carter-Career=8.1, Best=10.4, 499+PA seasons=6, MLB average=6.6(1.5)

BB- Carter wins(NOT CLOSE)
BB%
Pudge- Career=5.0, Best=9.5, 499+PA seasons better than average=6, MLB average=8.7(-3.7)
Carter- Career=9.4, Best=12.2, 499+ PA season better than average=8, MLB average=8.5(.9)

SO-Carter wins(very close)
SO%
Pudge- Career=14.4, Best=8.0, 499+PA seasons better=6, MLB average=16.8(2.4)
Carter- Career=11.1, Best=7.3, 499+PA seasons better=7, MLB average=13.8(2.7)

Playoffs- Carter wins( close)

defense- pudge wins(VERY CLOSE)
dWAR
Pudge-Career=28.7,Best=3.2, # of seasons 1 or above=14, # of seasons above 0=19
Carter-Career=25.5, Best=4.0, # of seasons 1 or above=9, # of seasons above 0=18

Career longevity=Pudge wins(1000 more PA)
Positional longevity- Pudge wins(400 more games)
#499+PA seasons- Pudge=11, Carter=12

Conclusion- this one is as tight as it gets... The only comparisons that were not very close were BA(Pudge), BB(Carter), SO(Carter) and playoffs(carter)... So I think I am going to give the slight edge to Carter... But either of these players can win this battle and it wouldn't be the WRONG pick...

 

[calsnowskier]

OPS+ (Carter/Rodriguez)
120 - 6/7
130 - 4/2
140 - 2/1 (143, 146 / 156)

Neither of these guys were OMG with the bat. This is very close, and could be given to either, but I will take Carter's extra big seasons over IRod's extra good season and his best.

oWAR7
Carter - 38.0
Rodriguez - 30.4

Defense
I hate dWAR, but I need something to compare. Using dWAR, just see Milk's breakdown. Adding in my memory of the players, I have to give the edge to Pudge. He is generally considered one of (if not the) best defensive catchers ever.

Accolades
Carter - 4 top 10 MVP, 11 ASG, 3 GG, 5 SS, Runner-up ROY
Rodriguez - 1 MVP, 4 top 10 MVPs (3 #10s), 14 ASGs, 13 GG, 7 SS

Pudge was considered the best catcher in the game during his era (vs Piazza, Santiago, Posada, Pena, Alomar, Daulton, Pagnozzi, Matheny, Martinez, Molina, Veritek). Carter was ONE of the best of his era (vs Bench, Fisk, Munson, Simmons, Boone, Pena).

The Kid was arguably the better bat, but Pudge was clearly the better defender. Gotta go with defense in a catcher comparison...

 

[Howie115]

The Kid was arguably the better bat, but Pudge was clearly the better defender. Gotta go with defense in a catcher comparison...

Yes, SS and C are the two positions where the stronger defender gets a pretty significant bump.

Pudge led the league in CS% nine times. After a while, only the fastest, best base stealers would even try to run on him, which brought the % down a bit.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yes, SS and C are the two positions where the stronger defender gets a pretty significant bump.

Pudge led the league in CS% nine times. After a while, only the fastest, best base stealers would even try to run on him, which brought the % down a bit.

Reason #762 that defensive metrics are near-worthless.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Reason #762 that defensive metrics are near-worthless.

Definitely a problem with looking at CS%, but we have pretty much made dWAR the default defensive stat here in our analysis... from my observation on the players who have better dWAR I have noticed that it is not just based on one defensive metric...

 

[calsnowskier]

Definitely a problem with looking at CS%, but we have pretty much made dWAR the default defensive stat here in our analysis... from my observation on the players who have better dWAR I have noticed that it is not just based on one defensive metric...

I use it in my analysis as well. But that is only because there isnt anything currently better.

If you have to eat shit, you might as well eat the shit from the hot vegan chick instead of the fat guy who lives at McDonalds.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I use it in my analysis as well. But that is only because there isnt anything currently better.

If you have to eat shit, you might as well eat the shit from the hot vegan chick instead of the fat guy who lives at McDonalds.

oh, I agree... But at the same time Just like OPS, you know it is calculated shittily but it looks pretty and shows what you originally thought... So maybe, just maybe there is some accuracy there...

 

[calsnowskier]

oh, I agree... But at the same time Just like OPS, you know it is calculated shittily but it looks pretty and shows what you originally thought... So maybe, just maybe there is some accuracy there...

OPS+, I can buy some "shittily" about since it factors in park adjustments and such. But OPS???? It is a clear, simple calculation. You may think that it weighs HRs to heavily, but IMHO (and the opinion of most others), it doesnt. It weighs HRs relative to 3Bs relative to 2Bs relative to singles relative to walks.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

OPS+, I can buy some "shittily" about since it factors in park adjustments and such. But OPS???? It is a clear, simple calculation. You may think that it weighs HRs to heavily, but IMHO (and the opinion of most others), it doesnt. It weighs HRs relative to 3Bs relative to 2Bs relative to singles relative to walks.

It is mathematically stupid... I should have said...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

OPS+, I can buy some "shittily" about since it factors in park adjustments and such. But OPS???? It is a clear, simple calculation. You may think that it weighs HRs to heavily, but IMHO (and the opinion of most others), it doesnt. It weighs HRs relative to 3Bs relative to 2Bs relative to singles relative to walks.

And it does measure hrs too much that's why advanced baseball stats like wOBA came into play... But its biggest complaint from critics of it is that it overvalues the walk...

 

[obxyankeefan]

OPS+, I can buy some "shittily" about since it factors in park adjustments and such. But OPS???? It is a clear, simple calculation. You may think that it weighs HRs to heavily, but IMHO (and the opinion of most others), it doesnt. It weighs HRs relative to 3Bs relative to 2Bs relative to singles relative to walks.

OPS weighs heavily in favor of power hitters over average hitters.

 

[calsnowskier]

OPS weighs heavily in favor of power hitters over average hitters.

As it should.

A HR is worth a SHIT-TON more than a single.

 

[obxyankeefan]

And it does measure hrs too much that's why advanced baseball stats like wOBA came into play... But its biggest complaint from critics of it is that it overvalues the walk...

A walk shoud be valued: you got on base and you made the pitcher waste at least 4 pitches. But a walk should not be valued the same as a single. If there is a man on first and you walk there is now men on first and second, if you single there is a good chance of the runner advancing to third.

 

[calsnowskier]

A walk shoud be valued: you got on base and you made the pitcher waste at least 4 pitches. But a walk should not be valued the same as a single. If there is a man on first and you walk there is now men on first and second, if you single there is a good chance of the runner advancing to third.

OPS does not weigh a single and a walk the same.

The single is included in the SLG and the OBP. the walk is ONLY included in the OBP.

 

[obxyankeefan]

As it should.

A HR is worth a SHIT-TON more than a single.

Yes, but players like Ichiro normally have a .750 OPS while hitting well over .300. So for lead off type hitters OPS is not a good stat to judge them. For Middle of the lineup power hitters it is a very good stat.

Back to the all stats have their benefits and their drawbacks.

 

[obxyankeefan]

OPS does not weigh a single and a walk the same.

The single is included in the SLG and the OBP. the walk is ONLY included in the OBP.

sorry brain fart on my part

 

[calsnowskier]

Yes, but players like Ichiro normally have a .750 OPS while hitting well over .300. So for lead off type hitters OPS is not a good stat to judge them. For Middle of the lineup power hitters it is a very good stat.

Back to the all stats have their benefits and their drawbacks.

This can never be said too much.

But with a gun to your head and you have to, for the rest of your life, rely on ONE stat...