too many free agents.

[DanBengalfan]

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I believe some of our players will get amazing offers from other teams and we will not be able to retain many key free agents. Bates, Hurst, Apple, Pratt, Bell, etc. anyone good is going to make bank. Mike Brown has already been saying that to retain Burrow we will have to make some sacrifices in other areas.

we can't replace all these guys in the draft, so who do we prioritize? seems like we should have been more proactive on defense. if the defense is dismantled, burrow will be a stat machine, but we won't win as many highly competitive games.

 

[Cincyfan78]

2024 NFL Free Agents Tracker

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I believe some of our players will get amazing offers from other teams and we will not be able to retain many key free agents. Bates, Hurst, Apple, Pratt, Bell, etc. anyone good is going to make bank. Mike Brown has already been saying that to retain Burrow we will have to make some sacrifices in other areas.

we can't replace all these guys in the draft, so who do we prioritize? seems like we should have been more proactive on defense. if the defense is dismantled, burrow will be a stat machine, but we won't win as many highly competitive games.

Bates is gone if only because they already drafted his replacement last year in the 1st round.

Hurst might get a decent deal, but I don't see a team offering him a big time contract. He's retainable - and he's spoken highly of being in Cincinnati.

Apple can return - but it would have to be at a deal - Awuzie returns, CTB is slotted in as the other starter - and they are bound to look to upgrade the backup positions as well either through F/A or the draft. Plus, you want to ensure you get Awuzie back at 100% - so I would listen to Apple, who has stated he wants to return, but I wouldn't break the bank for him - and at a rating of 112 of 122 CB's last year - even if he did seem better, he still not very good.

Pratt is the one guy that I think is gone because someone will offer to make him a 3-down LB, and pay him to be "the" guy at LB for that defense. That's what he wants, and he's simply not going to get it here.

I think Bell is retainable - no clue on his desire to return - he had a really good season, but another guy I don't see a team throwing a ton of money at.

Burrow's contract is certainly going to have an affect on other signings (both F/A and keeping their own) but the cap is jumping from 208 to nearly 225M this year, and the Bengals have the 4th most cap space available at roughly 44.5M. That's before you consider any other potential cost saving cuts. You could see Boyd, Mixon, Collins, Williams and a host of others let walk as other guys have shown they can at least fill those spots at the same level. So, even if you took that money and re-invested it into other F/A - you give yourself lots of wiggle room.

It also depends on what Burrow wants contractually. To this point, no one really knows how he's going to approach it. He seems very much like a guy that understands he needs other guys around him (both offense and defense) for the team to get where they want to go. He values winning a lot. How much? I guess we are about to find out.

 

[DanBengalfan]

thanks for that write up

 

[Cincyfan78]

thanks for that write up

No problem - shots in the dark by me, but I think it makes some sense. Also, sitting at home this weekend hangin' out so...bored and had/have some time....LOL

The real key is - Burrow. That has to fall first before you can really look to extend any of the guys you may want to keep. The only guys who I would say are 100% not coming back are Bates and Pratt. Everyone else, I think, has at least a shot to return depending on the cap situation after Burrow (and potentially Higgins extension).

This is also before you decide if you are going to make any roster moves in terms of cutting guys. Initially, I thought if they moved on from Williams, they should save his cap, but they owe him all of it, so it all counts - so he's staying put. The Bengals don't actually have a ton of big money guys that you would consider cutting - so, in that regards they are good, but it also means less potential flexibility as there aren't really any options to cut guys with massive savings without also cutting an impact guy.

Top 3 candidates for being cut, IMO:

Collins - Salary 9.3. Dead money 3.3. Cap savings would be 6M

Mixon - Salary 12.7. Dead money 5.5. Cap savings would be 7.2M

Boyd - Salary 10.2. Dead money 1.4. Cap savings would be 8.8M

I think Collins is most likely in general because of his back issues, now his knee, and Adeniji showed he could, at least, be as good as Collins was. The savings from cutting him would mean minimal free cap space would be needed to find an upgrade here - especially if you find a guy who really wants to come in and block for Burrow.

Boyd has done well, but at 28 - how much does he have left - and can the Bengals find a true slot guy with speed that could better benefit this offense? He also would give you the most space by cutting him. You love what Tyler has done, and the Bengals are typically very loyal to guys like Tyler - so I don't think we'll see him go - but if the Bengals could land a true #3 slot guy with speed in F/A - things could get interesting. Plus, you'd likely be signing this guy for 3-4 years, meaning you don't have to worry about losing both Boyd and Higgins next year in F/A and trying to get 2 brand new WR's into a new system. Or, do they find a true slot guy in the draft, keep Boyd, and let the kid learn for a year getting reps here and there, and is ready in 2024? I could see this going either way. One last option for Boyd would be a restructure - lowering his cap space for this year, but assuring that he might be around for another 2-3 years by agreeing to a team friendly extension.

Mixon, IMO, is the easiest to replace. He's been a solid RB for the Bengals, but the RB in general as position has pretty much gone by the wayside. They likely could re-sign Perine as the backup, and either find a RB in F/A or draft one in rounds 2-4 in the draft. Not only that, Mixon isn't a great blocker, and with how much this team has transitioned into a pass heavy offense - they could look to find a guy that is more electric in the passing game as well as a more pure pass-catcher.

 

[DanBengalfan]

I don't think we go nuts for a running back. someone will be drafted or signed as a college fa. Traveon is actually not that bad, and they may yet have plans for him.

Chris Evans could possibly slide into a slot receiver roll. kinda like baby hawk.

....

this is the kinda deal I think Burrow is going to get, if he doesn't get it here, he'll get it elsewhere:

• Aaron Rodgers contract: 4 years, $200 million ($150.8 million in guarantees)
• Aaron Rodgers salary: $1.15 million (2023)
• Signing bonus: $40.8 million
• Average annual salary: $50.27 million

Just remove Aaron Rodgers name, and insert Joe Burrow.

 

[BigKen]

Bears have a truck load of money to spend and they will be looking everywhere.

No top notch WRs or OL. Anybody who can play LT will get at least $15M.

Orlando Brown is a FA and the Chiefs only have $12M to spend. Think Mahomes, Kelce and couple of others will rewrite so Andy can offer OB 5/$120M? Patriots have about $42M and Brown is in the crosshairs. Bengal could get a decent pick from Belichek for Boyd.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Boyd would do well in Patriots scheme I think.


now that we have higgins and chase people forget he lead the team in receiving in 2019

 

[cincygrad]

Bears have a truck load of money to spend and they will be looking everywhere.

No top notch WRs or OL. Anybody who can play LT will get at least $15M.

Orlando Brown is a FA and the Chiefs only have $12M to spend. Think Mahomes, Kelce and couple of others will rewrite so Andy can offer OB 5/$120M? Patriots have about $42M and Brown is in the crosshairs. Bengal could get a decent pick from Belichek for Boyd.

Orlando Brown is an interesting decision - They franchised him last year and really wanted to do a long-term deal with him.. He was good in the second half of the year, but I don't think he's seen as one of the best in the game. I'm not sure the Chiefs will want him for that kind of coin.

I don't think the Pats would have much desire to offer a draft pick for the rights to pay 9 million to a 28 year old slot receiver going into his final year of his deal.

 

[cincygrad]

I think Bell will be the key target for retention. There will be a number of safeties on the market which could impact pricing in either direction. Bell is 29, so this will likely be his last chance for a deal. That could factor into a decision to leave and take a payday, but I have a sense that the Bengals can find a number that will keep him around.

Hurst did a good job in the passing attack, but I can't see the Bengals pouring big money into him in FA. He's a 29 year old tight end that probably won't improve any more past his current level. There is no way the Bengals will pay north of 10 million for the guy, but the market might be there from another team. Ultimately he'll have to decide if he can find a place to stick for several years or if he would like to chase the bag while he still has some skills. Keep in mind Uzomah got a 24 million (3 years) dollar deal last year. So, people will overpay.

Pratt and Bates are gone.

I think they keep Boyd.... I also think this might be the year they take a rookie in the first couple of rounds and start decreasing some of Boyd's snaps. He's been an important part of the locker room and I think there is some desire to keep him from both sides. They could get creative and restructure his deal to be more team friendly, while adding some years for the future. But, Boyd would have to be convinced that he wasn't going to get paid by someone else in next year's FA.

Mixon is by far the most interesting case. He has been a team captain for a long time and he's been a really good teammate. He's never bitched and complained about touches even with a coaching staff that has had a history of abandoning the run game. I think the latest off the field nothing burger is going to cloud people's judgement of what he has meant to the team. But, as I said in the past - I don't think he's a fit for the offense that they want to run and his inability to be a true 3 down back makes us too predictable with him in the lineup. I also think the yards after contact numbers suggest he is declining in ability. I think they need to move on but I have a sense that they won't.

 

[DanBengalfan]

we have higgins and boyd for another year.

I've read some speculation that NE will attempt to trade for one of them.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'm so confused - where is everyone getting this assumption that Hurst is getting some Mega contract. It's not like he had a massive year this year, and he's 30.

CJ got 8M last year....and that put him somewhere around 18th in the NFL.

Hurst got 3.5 this year - a raise to 6M and then 8M for a 2 year deal would be pretty solid, and nowhere break the bank.

 

[cincygrad]

I'm so confused - where is everyone getting this assumption that Hurst is getting some Mega contract. It's not like he had a massive year this year, and he's 30.

CJ got 8M last year....and that put him somewhere around 18th in the NFL.

Hurst got 3.5 this year - a raise to 6M and then 8M for a 2 year deal would be pretty solid, and nowhere break the bank.

This was from an article by the guys at PFF:

"Hurst signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Bengals as a free agent this offseason, and he’s been significantly better and more productive than he was in 2021 with the Atlanta Falcons.

After earning a 55.3 offensive grade and catching 26 passes for 221 yards with three touchdowns in 13 games last year, Hurst has 46 receptions for 388 yards with two touchdowns and a 65.7 offensive grade through 11 games this season. It’s not easy to predict tight end contracts, but Evan Engram signed a one-year, $9 million deal last offseason. Ian Thomas, Mo Alie-Cox, Gerald Everett, Austin Hooper, Tyler Conklin, Tyler Higbee, C.J. Uzomah, Will Dissly and Logan Thomas all are making between $5.65 million and $8 million per year."

I would take Hurst for the terms you spell out and it would fit with some of the action quoted here.... But if the market gets North of 8 million for average tight ends, I'm not sure the Bengals will want to invest. That said, they don't have anything under contract to write home about so maybe they'll have to bite the bullet.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

No problem - shots in the dark by me, but I think it makes some sense. Also, sitting at home this weekend hangin' out so...bored and had/have some time....LOL

The real key is - Burrow. That has to fall first before you can really look to extend any of the guys you may want to keep. The only guys who I would say are 100% not coming back are Bates and Pratt. Everyone else, I think, has at least a shot to return depending on the cap situation after Burrow (and potentially Higgins extension).

This is also before you decide if you are going to make any roster moves in terms of cutting guys. Initially, I thought if they moved on from Williams, they should save his cap, but they owe him all of it, so it all counts - so he's staying put. The Bengals don't actually have a ton of big money guys that you would consider cutting - so, in that regards they are good, but it also means less potential flexibility as there aren't really any options to cut guys with massive savings without also cutting an impact guy.

Top 3 candidates for being cut, IMO:

Collins - Salary 9.3. Dead money 3.3. Cap savings would be 6M

Mixon - Salary 12.7. Dead money 5.5. Cap savings would be 7.2M

Boyd - Salary 10.2. Dead money 1.4. Cap savings would be 8.8M

I think Collins is most likely in general because of his back issues, now his knee, and Adeniji showed he could, at least, be as good as Collins was. The savings from cutting him would mean minimal free cap space would be needed to find an upgrade here - especially if you find a guy who really wants to come in and block for Burrow.

Boyd has done well, but at 28 - how much does he have left - and can the Bengals find a true slot guy with speed that could better benefit this offense? He also would give you the most space by cutting him. You love what Tyler has done, and the Bengals are typically very loyal to guys like Tyler - so I don't think we'll see him go - but if the Bengals could land a true #3 slot guy with speed in F/A - things could get interesting. Plus, you'd likely be signing this guy for 3-4 years, meaning you don't have to worry about losing both Boyd and Higgins next year in F/A and trying to get 2 brand new WR's into a new system. Or, do they find a true slot guy in the draft, keep Boyd, and let the kid learn for a year getting reps here and there, and is ready in 2024? I could see this going either way. One last option for Boyd would be a restructure - lowering his cap space for this year, but assuring that he might be around for another 2-3 years by agreeing to a team friendly extension.

Mixon, IMO, is the easiest to replace. He's been a solid RB for the Bengals, but the RB in general as position has pretty much gone by the wayside. They likely could re-sign Perine as the backup, and either find a RB in F/A or draft one in rounds 2-4 in the draft. Not only that, Mixon isn't a great blocker, and with how much this team has transitioned into a pass heavy offense - they could look to find a guy that is more electric in the passing game as well as a more pure pass-catcher.

Depending on when they cut Mixon his dead money could be spread over 2 years also.

I don't think Cincy pays him 25 mil over the next 2.

 

[DanBengalfan]

This was from an article by the guys at PFF:

"Hurst signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Bengals as a free agent this offseason, and he’s been significantly better and more productive than he was in 2021 with the Atlanta Falcons.

After earning a 55.3 offensive grade and catching 26 passes for 221 yards with three touchdowns in 13 games last year, Hurst has 46 receptions for 388 yards with two touchdowns and a 65.7 offensive grade through 11 games this season. It’s not easy to predict tight end contracts, but Evan Engram signed a one-year, $9 million deal last offseason. Ian Thomas, Mo Alie-Cox, Gerald Everett, Austin Hooper, Tyler Conklin, Tyler Higbee, C.J. Uzomah, Will Dissly and Logan Thomas all are making between $5.65 million and $8 million per year."

I would take Hurst for the terms you spell out and it would fit with some of the action quoted here.... But if the market gets North of 8 million for average tight ends, I'm not sure the Bengals will want to invest. That said, they don't have anything under contract to write home about so maybe they'll have to bite the bullet.

yea, it's this. I think TE is one of the positions they backfill in the draft. they will probably resign our backup FA TE, wilcox who is an erfa and draft a new one. There's 3 TE that could go in the first round. Loved watching Hurst play, but this FO isn't going to pay him CJ Usamah money.

We have already invested quite a bit in the OL, and the Bengals might actually be happy with letting the crew get healthy and just finding maybe another depth pick in the draft.

We have some Free agents on Defense that could potentially land bigger contracts Bates, Pratt, and Bell for example. I thik we lose all of them. We will most likely resign Apple, he's not great but he's a piece to our system, and he plays well at times, similar with Tre Flowers. we will likely resign him. We will try to add some depth in Free Ageny, but it will be a head scratcher.

I think we let Brandon Allen walk so he can play in the XFL/USFL/CFL or whatever. We have a pretty good practice squad QB and he could be the backup and maybe even be ok if Burrow gets hurt for a few games.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

yea, it's this. I think TE is one of the positions they backfill in the draft. they will probably resign our backup FA TE, wilcox who is an erfa and draft a new one. There's 3 TE that could go in the first round. Loved watching Hurst play, but this FO isn't going to pay him CJ Usamah money.

We have already invested quite a bit in the OL, and the Bengals might actually be happy with letting the crew get healthy and just finding maybe another depth pick in the draft.

We have some Free agents on Defense that could potentially land bigger contracts Bates, Pratt, and Bell for example. I thik we lose all of them. We will most likely resign Apple, he's not great but he's a piece to our system, and he plays well at times, similar with Tre Flowers. we will likely resign him. We will try to add some depth in Free Ageny, but it will be a head scratcher.

I think we let Brandon Allen walk so he can play in the XFL/USFL/CFL or whatever. We have a pretty good practice squad QB and he could be the backup and maybe even be ok if Burrow gets hurt for a few games.

Most of the mock drafts that are already published have the Bengals taking TE or CB #1.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Most of the mock drafts that are already published have the Bengals taking TE or CB #1.

yea, I think that's a pretty safe bet.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'd rather work out a deal for 2 years and still draft a guy. The draft is a crap shoot, and it could still take a year, or 2, for a guy to get really going. Not everyone is Travis Kelce - so, for reasonable terms...I'd still want Hurst back.

Said the same thing about CJ last year - would have liked to have had him back, but also draft a guy to be ready.

But, as others have said - if he breaks the bank, or wants 3-4 years...not sure that I would commit to that. Maybe 2 years and a team option or something...but that would be pushing it for me.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I'd rather work out a deal for 2 years and still draft a guy. The draft is a crap shoot, and it could still take a year, or 2, for a guy to get really going. Not everyone is Travis Kelce - so, for reasonable terms...I'd still want Hurst back.

Said the same thing about CJ last year - would have liked to have had him back, but also draft a guy to be ready.

But, as others have said - if he breaks the bank, or wants 3-4 years...not sure that I would commit to that. Maybe 2 years and a team option or something...but that would be pushing it for me.

I think we have an easier time signing these guys to more team friendly deals (not steals, but team friendly) if Burrow signs soon and leaves money on the table for other guys. I think showing that as the leader and the guy set to make a fortune may inspire other team oriented guys like Hurst.

If Burrow breaks the bank, don't expect us to have enough to sign these free agents and be able to respectfully request they take a little less to keep the core together.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Even Carson Palmer admits that Burrow is the best QB in the league.

he will be the highest paid QB in the league, better paid than Aaron Rodgers and Russel Wilson, and the Bengals FO will be praying that he stays healthy, hence the amount of money we paid upgrading the OL last season.

I don't expect this deal to be signed right away.

Brown will "Wait and see"
if Burrow gets a freak injury and plays mediocre ball and misses games, or worse yet, tanks some games and throws a bunch of pick 6, his value will be at a discount. Brown would give him a low ball offer. I don't think that's going to happen, but as a business guru, it behooves the Bengals FO to wait and see.

 

[cincygrad]

I think people are getting a little ahead of themselves with the idea that Burrow is going to leave money on the table. I'm not willing to say he won't - He's built a little differently than others. But, I also know that he sees himself as one of the best in the game and he owes it to himself and others at his position to receive market value. The last thing that we need to see is for Burrow to take significantly less than market and the Bengals pocketing the returns rather than investing heavily elsewhere.