Tournament Thread tOfficial 2019 ncaa tournament thread

[fredsdeadfriend]

Line opened with Wisconsin as slight favorite, then heavy money came in on Oregon to push the line in Oregon's favor.

Why did the pros bet on Oregon?

You think everyone out in Vegas betting on cbb are pros? lol


The vast majority of gamblers out there are chumps. I know, that was my life for many years.

 

[podsox]

Oregon moved to -1 at multiple books by Monday.

Well I bet Wisconsin 2 minutes before the gm started at -2. Books aren’t that far apart ever

 

[podsox]

You think everyone out in Vegas betting on cbb are pros? lol


The vast majority of gamblers out there are chumps. I know, that was my life for many years.

People don’t seem to understand 99% of “sharps” lose

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

You think everyone out in Vegas betting on cbb are pros? lol


The vast majority of gamblers out there are chumps. I know, that was my life for many years.

Clearly you were one of those chumps based on your Oregon (and now Washington) stance.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Well I bet Wisconsin 2 minutes before the gm started at -2. Books aren’t that far apart ever

Guess the books found another sucker in you.

 

[podsox]

Guess the books found another sucker in you.

The best gamblers in the world hope to hit at 60%. I guess they are suckers 40% of the time too

 

[fredsdeadfriend]

Line opened with Wisconsin as slight favorite, then heavy money came in on Oregon to push the line in Oregon's favor.

Why did the pros bet on Oregon?

Hey, their late season surge could easily explain why people bet on them.

My system is not perfect, I suffer from biases. I bet on Wisconsin because of their being a B1G team and against OU because of their being a Pac team.

Before that game, my B1G bias served me quite well, they were 6-0 going into that game. The Pac was 0-1 if you don't count the retarded playin games which are a different format than the whole rest of the tournament.

I've been betting against the Pac for several years now and it's served me quite well. But of course, there are often exceptions. But winning 60% of the time will make you money if you bet the same on every game. So you don't have to bat a thousand to make the HOF.


Dude, your team won, be happy with that, and let all of us detractors do our detracting and if Oregon makes a run, you can have the last laugh. I'm fine with that, and I'm sure you would love that. So people like me make it more enjoyable for you when your team does well.

 

[jontaejones]

The best gamblers in the world hope to hit at 60%. I guess they are suckers 40% of the time too

College basketball regular season is good to bet on, but the tournament is horrendous.

Absolutely without a doubt, the worst thing to bet on if you want to win money.

Because teams have no familiarity with each other and neutral court. But it's a lot of fun.

 

[podsox]

College basketball regular season is good to bet on, but the tournament is horrendous.

Absolutely without a doubt, the worst thing to bet on if you want to win money.

Because teams have no familiarity with each other and neutral court. But it's a lot of fun.

I usually do well during the thanksgiving tournaments and the march madness. I’m awful during conference play

 

[jontaejones]

I usually do well during the thanksgiving tournaments and the march madness. I’m awful during conference play

It's tough to deal with the spreads but a lot more predictable.

I've watched all year and I'm 0-4 the last two days, even without the spread, lol. All V-cash tho.

 

[fredsdeadfriend]

Clearly you were one of those chumps based on your Oregon (and now Washington) stance.

LMAO!!! I've been betting on cbb for over 20 years and you think my picking against 2 teams makes me a chump?


Dude, my comment was based on what I know about Vegas, the average gamblers, because most of my friends were gamblers, and most of them were my friends because we met playing Texas Hold Em, and poker is also gambling. I eventually ran a poker business so met poker players from all over the Midwest and had contacts from a few places out of the Midwest, too. I made a lot of money playing poker over my life, and betting on cbb is a seasonal thing for me and I often picked poker over cbb betting, but I never lost a single dime over an entire cbb season, EVER. I kept track of my poker winnings as well, and had only 3 losing months out of 100, and none out of the last 40 months(I got better).

So gambling was a big part of my life and I know/knew/met tens of thousands of gamblers.

50% of them lost money, ALOT of money. Another 30-40% lost money overall, but won enough to keep their losses at a minimum. Only about 10% were consistently able to win money, as even the good poker players usually blew their winnings on pull tabs or slots or some other form of gambling, or they would not know how to manage their bankrolls and would gamble far too much at one time and when they lost they canceled out all of the winning they did to get to that point. Far too many gamblers win small, win small, win small, then lose big.


So yes, gamblers, for the most part, are chumps.

I'm not THE expert, but I am sure I am more of an expert than 80% of the people who post in here if not more? Most people have non-gambling jobs. It was my job for over a decade of my life.

 

[Yo Tee]

We don't have to get rid of the UVA basketball program

Still probably should though.

 

[DJ Fieri]

"Don't give up on love!!!!!!"

 

[ericd7633]

I'm wondering why the fuck this other gophers fan is defending Wisconsin? I'd be thrilled if they were the team that prevented the B1G from being undefeated.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Well Duke made it look good for a half

 

[fredsdeadfriend]

Clearly you were one of those chumps based on your Oregon (and now Washington) stance.

Hey, I see the Washington game as a wash. I picked against them, and so if they lose that helps my bracket. If they win? Well, my Gophers beat Washington so it makes my Gophers look better. A wash. One of my other misses was betting on UL. Same thing, either way I benefitted. I prefer to have been wrong.


Dude, like I said, my system isn't perfect, it's based far too much on stats and computer ratings. It lacks the eye test aspect. So I obviously am going to miss a few games and will misevaluate a few teams who for whatever reason are better than their rankings and their stats show them to be. Or maybe favorable matchups may make a big impact. No one can predict when a poor shooting team is going to all of a sudden shoot the lights out. And it's hard to predict how a team that plays against weak competition all season will do against tougher competition come tourney time. Most of them are not prepared for it and lose, like Cincy seems to do EVERY SINGLE YEAR, along with most of it's AAC conf mates. Most Pac teams lately have struggled come March. But once in a while a team or two out of the Pac will make a decent run. But I still remember the year the Pac Regular Season Champs couldn't win the NIT Tourney. How long ago was it that the Pac only got 1 win in the entire NCAA tourney? They've done that 2 or even 3 times in the last 30 or so years, haven't they?

 

[jontaejones]

Woohoo. My dad went to Utah State!

 

[fredsdeadfriend]

I'm wondering why the fuck this other gophers fan is defending Wisconsin? I'd be thrilled if they were the team that prevented the B1G from being undefeated.

LOL, good point!!! What was I thinking?

 

[podsox]

Apparently Washington can shoot 3s. Brick city every time I watched them

 

[DJ Fieri]

Duke is pulling away.