These Cats Are Predicting a Disaster For the Niners in 2012

[MHSL82]

Well, actually I do believe these types of performances are anomalies especially when you consider that all QB's experience unfortunate INT's as well as fortunate non-INT's.

As for Alex, he has shown a zero propensity for this type of performance in the NFL - That said, however, the numbers I posted for his last 665 passes are very indicative of his college performance.

Soooo, who knows?? Right now, unlike you I'm not even close to the Kool-Aid stand; but, if he begins 2012 as he ended 2010 & played throughout 2011, I'll certainly get directions.

Incidentally, Brady's record is actually 4 INT's for 535 attempts = 0.7476%. In order for Alex to beat that, he will need to throw 138 passes to begin 2012. 6 INT's in 803 attempts equals 0.7471%

He ended 2011-12 with 159 passes (regular season) and then had another 68 in the postseason without an INT. So it's doable, but not necessarily likely.

Here's hoping you get some by the SB time instead of like in the start of 2010. If we lived close, I'd wager a kool-aid bet where if Smith has more than 4000 yards and 3-1 TD/INT ratio, you buy me some kool-aid. If he drops below 92.8, I'd buy you kool-aid (beer probably would be better). If neither happens or both, we buy our own.

 

[Bemular]

He ended 2011-12 with 159 passes (regular season) and then had another 68 in the postseason without an INT. So it's doable, but not necessarily likely.

Here's hoping you get some View attachment 3638 by the SB time instead of like in the start of 2010. If we lived close, I'd wager a kool-aid bet where if Smith has more than 4000 yards and 3-1 TD/INT ratio, you buy me some kool-aid. If he drops below 92.8, I'd buy you kool-aid (beer probably would be better). If neither happens or both, we buy our own.

Haha! I would take that bet and hope I lost! Not only would I buy you a round of Kool-Aid, I would throw in a

 

[MHSL82]

Haha! I would take that bet and hope I lost! Not only would I buy you a round of Kool-Aid, I would throw in a

We could substitute the drink bet with an avatar bet, where until Game 1 of 2013 whoever lost would have to have the Kool-Aid man as their avatar. If neither or both happened, we'd choose our own (being that neither of us have an avatar right now). I like the PW one from MW49er5 and Calamity's, though I wouldn't use it for mine. NinerSickness should now be his permanent one.

 

[EKmane]

predictions are good for message boards.

its safe to say the majority predict (not following just stats) we win closer to 10 than 7. if Vegas put out a straight bet over or under 8 wins (8 is a tie), how many will bet Over?

most would agree we won't repeat 13-3, but falling to 7 wins is too much.

I don't agree. I don't see any reason that leads me to believe that we can't win 14 games this season. This tougher schedule doesn't really mean too much. We are the strongest team out there. We brought back every single person that made any contribution on defense, our offense will have the same oc for the 2nd season in a row for the first time, plus we loaded up at wr and rb with playmakers (homerun threats). This Niners team is going to be very dangerous.

You'll see in the first game vs the Packers.

 

[Bemular]

We could substitute the drink bet with an avatar bet, where until Game 1 of 2013 whoever lost would have to have the Kool-Aid man as their avatar. If neither or both happened, we'd choose our own (being that neither of us have an avatar right now). I like the PW one from MW49er5 and Calamity's, though I wouldn't use it for mine. NinerSickness should now be his permanent one.

I think the Kool-Aid dude is worth having as an avatar without a bet - if you're into those sorts of things - Which it appears you and I are not, but we'll see how things develop as the season approaches.

 

[MHSL82]

I think the Kool-Aid dude is worth having as an avatar without a bet - if you're into those sorts of things - Which it appears you and I are not, but we'll see how things develop as the season approaches.

Haha, no way on the kool-aid man. Not my style. I don't bet often because it's usually not worth it. I like hypothetical bets that don't involve money - unless I'm in Vegas. As for an avatar, I'd rather just pick one. Maybe I'll get around to that one day.

 

[deep9er]

I don't agree. I don't see any reason that leads me to believe that we can't win 14 games this season. This tougher schedule doesn't really mean too much. We are the strongest team out there. We brought back every single person that made any contribution on defense, our offense will have the same oc for the 2nd season in a row for the first time, plus we loaded up at wr and rb with playmakers (homerun threats). This Niners team is going to be very dangerous.

You'll see in the first game vs the Packers.

like i said...."most" fans feel we won't 13 games, not all. every season there will be fans who say we'll "win 18 games", no problem being optimistic.

 

[Jikkle]

Football unlike baseball is just one of those sports where stats really don't tell the whole story and there are a lot of unquantifiable elements that go into winning and losing a football game.

It defies logic when the predict a 6 game drop off especially when one of the biggest unquantifiable factors right now is the offense. So a lot of reasons they listed for our drop which was mainly our defense not being quite as good, turnover differential not being as high, and our record in close games could be balanced with a stronger performance from our offense.

The team went 13-3 last season and has improved itself so while they might not go 13-3 again it's completely illogical to go with a 6 win drop off and the only thing that could cause it would be critical injuries on both sides of the ball.

 

[Flyingiguana]

imo we're gonna be in the group that doesn't fall back under 10 wins. the d should have staying power and the offense should make at least some strides. wildcards are injuries and alex smith.

 

[deep9er]

imo we're gonna be in the group that doesn't fall back under 10 wins. the d should have staying power and the offense should make at least some strides. wildcards are injuries and alex smith.

agree we won't fall under 10 wins, and no question injuries is the wildcard. injuries will happen cause this is the NFL, but to what extent? last year was extra good and we shouldn't expect the same.

is Alex Smith that much of a 'wildcard'? i tend to think he'll "game manage" about the same as last season, improve a little (same system) but not regress? granted, do expect his stats to improve a little bit, cause he's surrounded by a good TEAM and good teams produce better stats the only stat that won't improve is INTs, but thats understandable.

 

[clyde_carbon]

agree we won't fall under 10 wins, and no question injuries is the wildcard. injuries will happen cause this is the NFL, but to what extent? last year was extra good and we shouldn't expect the same.

is Alex Smith that much of a 'wildcard'? i tend to think he'll "game manage" about the same as last season, improve a little (same system) but not regress? granted, do expect his stats to improve a little bit, cause he's surrounded by a good TEAM and good teams produce better stats the only stat that won't improve is INTs, but thats understandable.

Really? You expect Alex to replicate one of the best INT ratios of all time again?

 

[deep9er]

Really? You expect Alex to replicate one of the best INT ratios of all time again?

i missed a period before the last sentence, but read please read the last sentence again.

mahalo

 

[Jikkle]

Another doom and gloom article

Not going to disagree with likely not being 13-3 again but again I have the same problem with every doom and gloom article I've read and that's assumption that the offense will be the same as it was last season.

If the offense is more effective especially on 3rd downs and the red zone than you

A) You'll likely have less close games to win and to lose

B) Turnover differential becomes less important because the offense is putting more points on the board to better cover mistakes.

Everyone knows Smith will likely throw more than 5 INTs but what if he throws for 30 TDs instead of 17? 4,000 yards instead of 3,000?

So with a legitimately elite defense and excellent coaching you can't sell me in the under 9 wins argument.

 

[Bemular]

Another doom and gloom article

Not going to disagree with likely not being 13-3 again but again I have the same problem with every doom and gloom article I've read and that's assumption that the offense will be the same as it was last season.

If the offense is more effective especially on 3rd downs and the red zone than you

A) You'll likely have less close games to win and to lose

B) Turnover differential becomes less important because the offense is putting more points on the board to better cover mistakes.

Everyone knows Smith will likely throw more than 5 INTs but what if he throws for 30 TDs instead of 17? 4,000 yards instead of 3,000?

So with a legitimately elite defense and excellent coaching you can't sell me in the under 9 wins argument.

...And a legimately elite ST's as well

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Bill Barnwell is the type of stathead that makes you doubt whether or not he ever watches any of the games he's trying to comment on, then when he's inevitably wrong about half his predictions will hide behind the numbers......even if his predictions were obviously stupid.

Most of his analysis centers around historical averages of other teams - and no doubt many teams making this kind of jump will have trouble repeating their success, and in general most NFL teams don't have such good seasons twice consecutively. This is common sense and not worth an article, even though this is basically his whole argument.

That said, there's barely a nod to *why the Niners actually had a good season*, and why that may or may not happen again. Oddly, he admits that Sing --> Harbaugh was a massive addition, but then practically dismisses the effects this will have on the team going forward, predicting they'll fall back to 8 wins which is barely better than Sing achieved. Why? Because the 2007 Saints did something, and the 2002 Patriots did something. Nothing about the 2012 Niners, only references to past teams, each unique in its own situation.

Its just a guy who doesn't know as much about football as he likes to pretend, but like most statheads acts like you can see everything in the numbers......when really, there's no sport where the numbers and precedents tell you less.

 

[numone9er]

Really? You expect Alex to replicate one of the best INT ratios of all time again?

Was that a compliment trapped inside an insult? And about Alex Smith nonetheless?

 

[Flyingiguana]

agree we won't fall under 10 wins, and no question injuries is the wildcard. injuries will happen cause this is the NFL, but to what extent? last year was extra good and we shouldn't expect the same.

is Alex Smith that much of a 'wildcard'? i tend to think he'll "game manage" about the same as last season, improve a little (same system) but not regress? granted, do expect his stats to improve a little bit, cause he's surrounded by a good TEAM and good teams produce better stats the only stat that won't improve is INTs, but thats understandable.

he's shown flashes when we needed a score. if the offense is opened up now that we have some real wr's it should help his numbers. not to mention teams are still gonna be worried about gore and davis. if we get 80% of randy moss and maningham can be a viable #2 this could be a dangerous offense. but it rests with smith and whether he can become more consistent.

 

[deep9er]

he's shown flashes when we needed a score. if the offense is opened up now that we have some real wr's it should help his numbers. not to mention teams are still gonna be worried about gore and davis. if we get 80% of randy moss and maningham can be a viable #2 this could be a dangerous offense. but it rests with smith and whether he can become more consistent.

don't know how you're defining "dangerous", but i'll assume you meant for the season overall.

for myself, if the offense can rank 8 spots higher than last season, thats reasonable. this means they passed 1/4 of NFL teams. can it go higher? of course it has the potential to, but just not getting too far ahead.

if you meant 'game by game', then delete this comment.

 

[Flyingiguana]

well dangerous as in vernon and gore can dominate games. add the other parts and this offense could blow out other teams. a full offseason with the same staff can't be discounted either.

 

[Jikkle]

Another doom and gloom article

Grantland:The Niners Buck the System

Sorta eats crow but still clings on the fact he was "right" about some regression.

But considering the claim was 8-9 wins and winning the NFC West which also means he was dead wrong about the Seahawks I would say he was all wrong and not partially right.

It just goes to show that it's better to use your eyes and watch games instead of relying on stats and history to predict the future.