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MIKE75
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Someone asked me recently to prove why i think it is best not to take a QB at the top of the draft and why i thought it was better to wait. Read below for proof why now more than ever it is best to be patient and not reach......
It is definitely a crapshoot when it comes to drafting these QB's. More and more are busting at the top of the draft while those that are drafted later in the second and third round are doing well. The last five years there have been big chances and teams should pay extra attention. Unless there is a can't miss prospect like Andrew Luck why take the gamble when the odds are better of finding someone later??? The research i've done and written below will explain why i think reaching for a QB keeps teams mired in mediocrity......
As far as players go i use this example.....
Both Jake Locker and Colin Kaepernick were very similar and were both dual threat QB's in the 2011 draft. How in the hell did Locker get projected a round above Kaepernick because when you compare both QB's college careers Kaepernick blows Locker out of the water its no contest.........
What i couldn't figure out was with Locker going 11-25 in his college career,completing just 53% of his passes including one year he completed 47%,along with 53TD and 35INT and he also spent time injured. How they heck did this make him the top ranked QB? He should've been developmental he had terrible pocket presence,accuracy issues,etc.
Meanwhile Kaepernick was 28-7 in college including 13-1 in his last year. He was 2008 and 2010 WAC offensive player of the year and finished his career with 82TD and 24INT completing 60% of his passes and threw for over 10,000 yards along with rushing for over 4,000 yards and scoring around 60TD.
What the hell was it that put Locker way ahead in the QB prospective rankings in the 2011 draft??????
I can't think of a better example of this than two teams at a similar crossroads Tennessee and Cincinnati in 2011 looking to draft QB's and both teams coming off losing seasons. Tennessee reached for Jake Locker in round 1 while Cincy was patient waiting and drafting Andy Dalton in round 2. Both teams though similar at the time went in way different directions mainly due to who they picked at QB......
In 2011 head coach Marvin Lewis needed to draft a QB and had only had one winning season in his last five years and was in danger of being let go in Cincy. Tennessee was starting off a new regime with Mike Munchak and needed to draft a QB as well. Cincy was patient and didn't reach for a QB they drafted WR AJ Green and took pocket passer Andy Dalton in the second. Both players are cornerstones of that offense and have made the playoffs every year since they were drafted.
Meanwhile they were desperate in Tennessee and reached for Jake Locker a QB who had problems staying healthy and was terrible with accuracy. With second round pick they chose Akeem Ayers. Both Locker and Ayers are gone and Tennessee has missed the postseason every year since while Cincy made the playoffs every year since. Hmmmm.......
See how important draft strategy is when it comes to QB's. Another example is 2013 the top two QB's taken were EJ Manuel and Geno Smith. Both already look like busts and their respective teams have already brought in veterans to replace them as starters. Meanwhile a guy like third round pick Mike Glennon has played well at times becoming rookie of the month in November of his first year and just needs a change of scenery. Tampa has had multiple inquiries regarding Glennon. Cleveland a team in desperate need of a QB was one of the teams trying to swing a deal to bring Glennon to the Browns.
In 2012 RGIII and Brandon Weeden were first round picks but the better QB's in that draft were Russell Wilson and Nick Foles both picked in the third round. 2011 is a prime example also as Jake Locker,Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder all are first round busts while second round picks Andy Dalton has been to the postseason every year and Colin Kaepernick has played in a couple NFC championships and a Super Bowl......
Washington was so desperate they traded a bounty of picks to St. Louis for the right to draft RGIII in 2012. It has backfired for Washington as RGIII hasn't developed into a starter and St. Louis got first-round selections in 2012 (6th), 2013 (22nd), and 2014 (2nd), and a 2012 second-round selection (39th). After a number of subsequent trades over the next two drafts, St. Louis ended up turning this pick (and its 2013 sixth-round selection) into the following players: OT Greg Robinson, LB Alec Ogletree, WR Stedman Bailey, RBs Zac Stacy and Isaiah Pead, DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins and G Rokevious Watkins........Wouldn't it have been awesome if Tennessee could've pull off a similar deal in 2015?
The smart teams will draft a QB every other year especially now that more second and third rounders are becoming starters. In 2010,2012 and 2014 Philly drafted a QB and Nick Foles became a starter out of the 2012 class.
In 2010 Carolina drafted two QB's Clausen and Pike. The very next year they tried again and got their franchise QB Cam Newton. Give Carolina credit they didn't give up and even after drafting two QB's in one season they still came back the next year and tried again which finally worked out.
In 2007 Houston were wise to trade for QB Matt Schaub from Atlanta. The 2007 draft for QB's was terrible. They got five or six good years from Schaub and made the postseason twice.
Again why i say a guy like Mike Glennon could be good if another team gave him a shot.
If you need a QB the best thing to do is draft one every season or two until you find the right one. Some may think thats crazy but it works. I think teams should draft a QB in the second or third round as often as they can until they do find their franchise QB.
Philly and Carolina both took different approaches but since they drafted a QB more often it did eventually work out for them both.
After Seattle had let Matt Hasselbeck go they were desperate for a QB and went through quite a few as they brought in Charlie Whitehurst that didn't work out. Then they brought in Matt Flynn who signed a three-year deal worth $20.5 million. Flynn was brought in to compete with 2011 starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and 2012 NFL Draft third round pick Russell Wilson for the starting quarterback position.
The team was wise enough not to let money dictate their decision and saw Wilson was the best player. On most teams Wilson would've never started due to the amount of money Flynn was making. They took every approach possible and it worked out with third round pick Russell Wilson playing well and becoming franchise QB and Super Bowl champion.
In 2012 Seattle was another team at a crossroads like Tennessee and Cincinnati the year before. Seattle had finished with three straight losing seasons before drafting Wilson and turning things around.
San Francisco had endured eight straight losing seasons before finally turning things around drafting Colin Kaepernick in the second round in 2011 and going to the NFC championship that year and a Super Bowl berth in 2012.
In 2013 new Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians was wise enough to look for veteran QB's instead of trying to force things with a rookie in the draft. He brought in Drew Stanton first then a month later Carson Palmer. Arians went 10-6 in 2013 and 11-5 in 2014. He drafted QB Logan Thomas in the fourth round in 2014. Safe to say he wouldn't have had a winning record if he'd have reached for a QB especially in his first season 2013 a decision that wisely looks correct looking back on it.
All the teams that had many losing seasons like Cincy,Seattle and San Francisco started winning in 2011/2012 because they didn't reach for QB's. Second round pick Andy Dalton/Cincy,Third round pick Russell Wilson/Seahawks,Second round pick Colin Kaepernick/49ers were all good examples of teams that drafted wisely.
Teams that reached in 2011 have still have not had winning seasons:Blaine Gabbert/Jags;Jake Locker/Titans;Christian Ponder/Vikes. In fact each one of these teams have already moved on and drafted what should better QB in 2014. Too early to see exactly how it will impact overall.
In 2007 Oakland made one of the biggest blunders ever by drafting QB Jamarcus Russell. After moving on from Russell they brought in a better QB Carson Palmer and nearly had a winning record in 2011 under Hue Jackson but organiztion dysfunction derailed things. Finally in 2014 the team had a good draft getting QB Derek Carr who looks like the long term answer twelve years after Rich Gannon took them to the Super Bowl.
Another AFC west team struggled at QB until finding a team that drafted a promising rookie and was looking to unload a good vet. Those deals don't happen much which was good for Kansas City as they traded a pair of second round picks to San Francisco for Alex Smith. That worked great for K.C. as they were 2-14 in 2012 and when Alex Smith became starter they went 11-5.
Phillip Rivers would definitely be a vet that could make this or another team look better immediately. Someone i wouldn't want is Jay Cutler. He makes too many mistakes and lacks leadership.
When a team has a choice between drafting a QB and a vet they always need to take a vet if is a rare opportunity to get a good QB and make the team better. Denver,Arizona and Kansas City are good examples. It remains to be seen if Nick Foles will be the final missing piece to winning in St. Louis. I think Fisher got the best end of that deal that sent Sam Bradford to Philly. Bradford can't stay healthy so this could backfire on Chip Kelly unless he has something special planned for the NFL draft.......
Last year at this time Jerry Jones was locked in on QB Johnny Manziel. Jones's son and the other brass in Dallas had to literally talk sense into him and make him see the fact that Manziel wasn't a sure thing plus they still had Tony Romo. Jerry Jones i'm sure is very thankful for the advice and glad he listened for once and cooler heads prevailed.
Meanwhile Cleveland did a million dollar study on the QB class last year and the advice was take Teddy Bridgewater. Instead they took Manziel because the owner took the advice of a homeless man. Owner Haslam isn't off to a good start in Cleveland whatsoever. Besides that they took the best QB they've had in a decade Brian Hoyer and decided to let him walk and brought in Josh McCown. I think Cleveland would've been good with Bridgewater........
If teams did take the time to do their research which i've shown here then they would open their eyes and see that the ones that are desperate and the ones that keep reaching for QB's will keep on losing until they change their strategy.
It is definitely a crapshoot when it comes to drafting these QB's. More and more are busting at the top of the draft while those that are drafted later in the second and third round are doing well. The last five years there have been big chances and teams should pay extra attention. Unless there is a can't miss prospect like Andrew Luck why take the gamble when the odds are better of finding someone later??? The research i've done and written below will explain why i think reaching for a QB keeps teams mired in mediocrity......
As far as players go i use this example.....
Both Jake Locker and Colin Kaepernick were very similar and were both dual threat QB's in the 2011 draft. How in the hell did Locker get projected a round above Kaepernick because when you compare both QB's college careers Kaepernick blows Locker out of the water its no contest.........
What i couldn't figure out was with Locker going 11-25 in his college career,completing just 53% of his passes including one year he completed 47%,along with 53TD and 35INT and he also spent time injured. How they heck did this make him the top ranked QB? He should've been developmental he had terrible pocket presence,accuracy issues,etc.
Meanwhile Kaepernick was 28-7 in college including 13-1 in his last year. He was 2008 and 2010 WAC offensive player of the year and finished his career with 82TD and 24INT completing 60% of his passes and threw for over 10,000 yards along with rushing for over 4,000 yards and scoring around 60TD.
What the hell was it that put Locker way ahead in the QB prospective rankings in the 2011 draft??????
I can't think of a better example of this than two teams at a similar crossroads Tennessee and Cincinnati in 2011 looking to draft QB's and both teams coming off losing seasons. Tennessee reached for Jake Locker in round 1 while Cincy was patient waiting and drafting Andy Dalton in round 2. Both teams though similar at the time went in way different directions mainly due to who they picked at QB......
In 2011 head coach Marvin Lewis needed to draft a QB and had only had one winning season in his last five years and was in danger of being let go in Cincy. Tennessee was starting off a new regime with Mike Munchak and needed to draft a QB as well. Cincy was patient and didn't reach for a QB they drafted WR AJ Green and took pocket passer Andy Dalton in the second. Both players are cornerstones of that offense and have made the playoffs every year since they were drafted.
Meanwhile they were desperate in Tennessee and reached for Jake Locker a QB who had problems staying healthy and was terrible with accuracy. With second round pick they chose Akeem Ayers. Both Locker and Ayers are gone and Tennessee has missed the postseason every year since while Cincy made the playoffs every year since. Hmmmm.......
See how important draft strategy is when it comes to QB's. Another example is 2013 the top two QB's taken were EJ Manuel and Geno Smith. Both already look like busts and their respective teams have already brought in veterans to replace them as starters. Meanwhile a guy like third round pick Mike Glennon has played well at times becoming rookie of the month in November of his first year and just needs a change of scenery. Tampa has had multiple inquiries regarding Glennon. Cleveland a team in desperate need of a QB was one of the teams trying to swing a deal to bring Glennon to the Browns.
In 2012 RGIII and Brandon Weeden were first round picks but the better QB's in that draft were Russell Wilson and Nick Foles both picked in the third round. 2011 is a prime example also as Jake Locker,Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder all are first round busts while second round picks Andy Dalton has been to the postseason every year and Colin Kaepernick has played in a couple NFC championships and a Super Bowl......
Washington was so desperate they traded a bounty of picks to St. Louis for the right to draft RGIII in 2012. It has backfired for Washington as RGIII hasn't developed into a starter and St. Louis got first-round selections in 2012 (6th), 2013 (22nd), and 2014 (2nd), and a 2012 second-round selection (39th). After a number of subsequent trades over the next two drafts, St. Louis ended up turning this pick (and its 2013 sixth-round selection) into the following players: OT Greg Robinson, LB Alec Ogletree, WR Stedman Bailey, RBs Zac Stacy and Isaiah Pead, DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins and G Rokevious Watkins........Wouldn't it have been awesome if Tennessee could've pull off a similar deal in 2015?
The smart teams will draft a QB every other year especially now that more second and third rounders are becoming starters. In 2010,2012 and 2014 Philly drafted a QB and Nick Foles became a starter out of the 2012 class.
In 2010 Carolina drafted two QB's Clausen and Pike. The very next year they tried again and got their franchise QB Cam Newton. Give Carolina credit they didn't give up and even after drafting two QB's in one season they still came back the next year and tried again which finally worked out.
In 2007 Houston were wise to trade for QB Matt Schaub from Atlanta. The 2007 draft for QB's was terrible. They got five or six good years from Schaub and made the postseason twice.
Again why i say a guy like Mike Glennon could be good if another team gave him a shot.
If you need a QB the best thing to do is draft one every season or two until you find the right one. Some may think thats crazy but it works. I think teams should draft a QB in the second or third round as often as they can until they do find their franchise QB.
Philly and Carolina both took different approaches but since they drafted a QB more often it did eventually work out for them both.
After Seattle had let Matt Hasselbeck go they were desperate for a QB and went through quite a few as they brought in Charlie Whitehurst that didn't work out. Then they brought in Matt Flynn who signed a three-year deal worth $20.5 million. Flynn was brought in to compete with 2011 starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and 2012 NFL Draft third round pick Russell Wilson for the starting quarterback position.
The team was wise enough not to let money dictate their decision and saw Wilson was the best player. On most teams Wilson would've never started due to the amount of money Flynn was making. They took every approach possible and it worked out with third round pick Russell Wilson playing well and becoming franchise QB and Super Bowl champion.
In 2012 Seattle was another team at a crossroads like Tennessee and Cincinnati the year before. Seattle had finished with three straight losing seasons before drafting Wilson and turning things around.
San Francisco had endured eight straight losing seasons before finally turning things around drafting Colin Kaepernick in the second round in 2011 and going to the NFC championship that year and a Super Bowl berth in 2012.
In 2013 new Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians was wise enough to look for veteran QB's instead of trying to force things with a rookie in the draft. He brought in Drew Stanton first then a month later Carson Palmer. Arians went 10-6 in 2013 and 11-5 in 2014. He drafted QB Logan Thomas in the fourth round in 2014. Safe to say he wouldn't have had a winning record if he'd have reached for a QB especially in his first season 2013 a decision that wisely looks correct looking back on it.
All the teams that had many losing seasons like Cincy,Seattle and San Francisco started winning in 2011/2012 because they didn't reach for QB's. Second round pick Andy Dalton/Cincy,Third round pick Russell Wilson/Seahawks,Second round pick Colin Kaepernick/49ers were all good examples of teams that drafted wisely.
Teams that reached in 2011 have still have not had winning seasons:Blaine Gabbert/Jags;Jake Locker/Titans;Christian Ponder/Vikes. In fact each one of these teams have already moved on and drafted what should better QB in 2014. Too early to see exactly how it will impact overall.
In 2007 Oakland made one of the biggest blunders ever by drafting QB Jamarcus Russell. After moving on from Russell they brought in a better QB Carson Palmer and nearly had a winning record in 2011 under Hue Jackson but organiztion dysfunction derailed things. Finally in 2014 the team had a good draft getting QB Derek Carr who looks like the long term answer twelve years after Rich Gannon took them to the Super Bowl.
Another AFC west team struggled at QB until finding a team that drafted a promising rookie and was looking to unload a good vet. Those deals don't happen much which was good for Kansas City as they traded a pair of second round picks to San Francisco for Alex Smith. That worked great for K.C. as they were 2-14 in 2012 and when Alex Smith became starter they went 11-5.
Phillip Rivers would definitely be a vet that could make this or another team look better immediately. Someone i wouldn't want is Jay Cutler. He makes too many mistakes and lacks leadership.
When a team has a choice between drafting a QB and a vet they always need to take a vet if is a rare opportunity to get a good QB and make the team better. Denver,Arizona and Kansas City are good examples. It remains to be seen if Nick Foles will be the final missing piece to winning in St. Louis. I think Fisher got the best end of that deal that sent Sam Bradford to Philly. Bradford can't stay healthy so this could backfire on Chip Kelly unless he has something special planned for the NFL draft.......
Last year at this time Jerry Jones was locked in on QB Johnny Manziel. Jones's son and the other brass in Dallas had to literally talk sense into him and make him see the fact that Manziel wasn't a sure thing plus they still had Tony Romo. Jerry Jones i'm sure is very thankful for the advice and glad he listened for once and cooler heads prevailed.
Meanwhile Cleveland did a million dollar study on the QB class last year and the advice was take Teddy Bridgewater. Instead they took Manziel because the owner took the advice of a homeless man. Owner Haslam isn't off to a good start in Cleveland whatsoever. Besides that they took the best QB they've had in a decade Brian Hoyer and decided to let him walk and brought in Josh McCown. I think Cleveland would've been good with Bridgewater........
If teams did take the time to do their research which i've shown here then they would open their eyes and see that the ones that are desperate and the ones that keep reaching for QB's will keep on losing until they change their strategy.
