QB Projections Notoriously Wrong In Draft

[SteelersPride]

thanks, i'll check it out tommorow,

finding a qb can be a huge crap shoot

 

[NEPatsfan]

thanks, i'll check it out tommorow,

finding a qb can be a huge crap shoot

Big time, and I'll be the first to admit that Brady was a total diamond in the ruff.

I saw this video lastnight then text a copy of it to my oldest son, with the message,

Do you think Brady will ever forgive me for arguing they should play Bledsoe and sit the kid?

"Forgive me Tom for I have sinned"


Don't know your music taste, but the song in the commercial is the reason for the forgiveness comment.

I was hard arguing Bledsoe should return as the starter.

 

[SteelersPride]

Big time, and I'll be the first to admit that Brady was a total diamond in the ruff.

I saw this video lastnight then text a copy of it to my oldest son, with the message,

Do you think Brady will ever forgive me for arguing they should play Bledsoe and sit the kid?

"Forgive me Tom for I have sinned"


Don't know your music taste, but the song in the commercial is the reason for the forgiveness comment.

I was hard arguing Bledsoe should return as the starter.

lol well , tom sure said shut up to you!

 

[NEPatsfan]

lol well , tom sure said shut up to you!

It's why I don't fully commit, nor ignore the Galloping Chicken. I have been a Pats fan for roughly 40 years and watched a lot of NFL, and one thing is for certain, you never know when it comes to the rooks.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

I know I'm only addressing one point here, but the Jake Locker vs. Kaepernick thing is pretty simple. Locker played in a power 5 conferences and had the typical body/play style. Kaepernick played in statistically one of the worst defensive conferences ever and while he had the right body size he was clearly a one read and then run type of QB playing in a offense that was considered somewhat of a gimmick at the time.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I know I'm only addressing one point here, but the Jake Locker vs. Kaepernick thing is pretty simple. Locker played in a power 5 conferences and had the typical body/play style. Kaepernick played in statistically one of the worst defensive conferences ever and while he had the right body size he was clearly a one read and then run type of QB playing in a offense that was considered somewhat of a gimmick at the time.

Pretty much sums it up.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I give you the "Brady 6"

1. Chad Pennington 18th overall Jets
2. Giovanni Carmazzi 65th Niners
3. Chris Redman 75th Falcons
4. Tee Martin 163rd Steelers
5. Marc Bulger 168th Rams
6. Spergon Wynn 183rd Browns

Tom Brady 199th


Jets/Niners/Falcons/Steelers/Rams/Browns 2000 draft, NAILED IT!!



It's a very inexact science.

That was a good documentary. I remember the clip of Bill Walsh after the draft stating how good Carmazzi was going to be, ugh

 

[Bunkamania]

I give you the "Brady 6"

1. Chad Pennington 18th overall Jets
2. Giovanni Carmazzi 65th Niners
3. Chris Redman 75th Falcons
4. Tee Martin 163rd Steelers
5. Marc Bulger 168th Rams
6. Spergon Wynn 183rd Browns

Tom Brady 199th


Jets/Niners/Falcons/Steelers/Rams/Browns 2000 draft, NAILED IT!!



It's a very inexact science.

Very minor correction.

Redman was drafted by the Ravens.

 

[Clayton]

Pennington had some good games, the others, yeah not so much. My memory isn't the greatest, wasn't Pennington cut short by arm injuries?

Bulger was easily the 2nd best. The Rams just went through a decade of drafting 6-7 busts a year and at some point he just got sacked too much.

In Bulger's first two years, he went 18-4.
The next three years he went 18-20.
His last three years he went 5-30.

If Brady ends up on the Rams, he would've had the same fate. You can't whiff on the draft 80% of the time and still have a team.

 

[SteelersPride]

I know I'm only addressing one point here, but the Jake Locker vs. Kaepernick thing is pretty simple. Locker played in a power 5 conferences and had the typical body/play style. Kaepernick played in statistically one of the worst defensive conferences ever and while he had the right body size he was clearly a one read and then run type of QB playing in a offense that was considered somewhat of a gimmick at the time.

which is still what kaep is

 

[NEPatsfan]

Very minor correction.

Redman was drafted by the Ravens.

That's right, he ended up in Atlanta later.

Appreciated,

 

[MIKE75]

Pennington had a pretty good career but battled injuries too much in end. Pennington is supposedly the most accurate QB in NFL history. Tee Martin had just won the national championship at Tennessee for Vols something Peyton Manning could not achieve the four years he was there because he couldnt beat Florida and couldn't win the big one against Nebraska to win a title himself. Manning is the greatest regular season QB ever but the biggest choker of all time when it comes to winning big games. In college and pros roughly 21 seasons Manning has only won one title.

 

[ducky]

which is still what kaep is

Yeah if Locker goes to the 49ers and Kaep to the Titans, I highly doubt our perception of the two QB's is anywhere close to what they are now.

It is another thing about looking at draft picks you have to think about and why it is such an inexact science.

If the Cleveland Browns would have taken Tom Brady with the first overall pick in the 1999 NFL draft instead of Tim Couch and New England would have snagged Couch in the 6th round of that draft is Brady still a HOFer and Couch still a bust? Hard to know.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Someone asked me recently to prove why i think it is best not to take a QB at the top of the draft and why i thought it was better to wait. Read below for proof why now more than ever it is best to be patient and not reach......



It is definitely a crapshoot when it comes to drafting these QB's. More and more are busting at the top of the draft while those that are drafted later in the second and third round are doing well. The last five years there have been big chances and teams should pay extra attention. Unless there is a can't miss prospect like Andrew Luck why take the gamble when the odds are better of finding someone later??? The research i've done and written below will explain why i think reaching for a QB keeps teams mired in mediocrity......

As far as players go i use this example.....

Both Jake Locker and Colin Kaepernick were very similar and were both dual threat QB's in the 2011 draft. How in the hell did Locker get projected a round above Kaepernick because when you compare both QB's college careers Kaepernick blows Locker out of the water its no contest.........


What i couldn't figure out was with Locker going 11-25 in his college career,completing just 53% of his passes including one year he completed 47%,along with 53TD and 35INT and he also spent time injured. How they heck did this make him the top ranked QB? He should've been developmental he had terrible pocket presence,accuracy issues,etc.

Meanwhile Kaepernick was 28-7 in college including 13-1 in his last year. He was 2008 and 2010 WAC offensive player of the year and finished his career with 82TD and 24INT completing 60% of his passes and threw for over 10,000 yards along with rushing for over 4,000 yards and scoring around 60TD.

What the hell was it that put Locker way ahead in the QB prospective rankings in the 2011 draft??????




I can't think of a better example of this than two teams at a similar crossroads Tennessee and Cincinnati in 2011 looking to draft QB's and both teams coming off losing seasons. Tennessee reached for Jake Locker in round 1 while Cincy was patient waiting and drafting Andy Dalton in round 2. Both teams though similar at the time went in way different directions mainly due to who they picked at QB......



In 2011 head coach Marvin Lewis needed to draft a QB and had only had one winning season in his last five years and was in danger of being let go in Cincy. Tennessee was starting off a new regime with Mike Munchak and needed to draft a QB as well. Cincy was patient and didn't reach for a QB they drafted WR AJ Green and took pocket passer Andy Dalton in the second. Both players are cornerstones of that offense and have made the playoffs every year since they were drafted.



Meanwhile they were desperate in Tennessee and reached for Jake Locker a QB who had problems staying healthy and was terrible with accuracy. With second round pick they chose Akeem Ayers. Both Locker and Ayers are gone and Tennessee has missed the postseason every year since while Cincy made the playoffs every year since. Hmmmm.......





See how important draft strategy is when it comes to QB's. Another example is 2013 the top two QB's taken were EJ Manuel and Geno Smith. Both already look like busts and their respective teams have already brought in veterans to replace them as starters. Meanwhile a guy like third round pick Mike Glennon has played well at times becoming rookie of the month in November of his first year and just needs a change of scenery. Tampa has had multiple inquiries regarding Glennon. Cleveland a team in desperate need of a QB was one of the teams trying to swing a deal to bring Glennon to the Browns.







In 2012 RGIII and Brandon Weeden were first round picks but the better QB's in that draft were Russell Wilson and Nick Foles both picked in the third round. 2011 is a prime example also as Jake Locker,Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder all are first round busts while second round picks Andy Dalton has been to the postseason every year and Colin Kaepernick has played in a couple NFC championships and a Super Bowl......



Washington was so desperate they traded a bounty of picks to St. Louis for the right to draft RGIII in 2012. It has backfired for Washington as RGIII hasn't developed into a starter and St. Louis got first-round selections in 2012 (6th), 2013 (22nd), and 2014 (2nd), and a 2012 second-round selection (39th). After a number of subsequent trades over the next two drafts, St. Louis ended up turning this pick (and its 2013 sixth-round selection) into the following players: OT Greg Robinson, LB Alec Ogletree, WR Stedman Bailey, RBs Zac Stacy and Isaiah Pead, DT Michael Brockers, CB Janoris Jenkins and G Rokevious Watkins........Wouldn't it have been awesome if Tennessee could've pull off a similar deal in 2015?





The smart teams will draft a QB every other year especially now that more second and third rounders are becoming starters. In 2010,2012 and 2014 Philly drafted a QB and Nick Foles became a starter out of the 2012 class.



In 2010 Carolina drafted two QB's Clausen and Pike. The very next year they tried again and got their franchise QB Cam Newton. Give Carolina credit they didn't give up and even after drafting two QB's in one season they still came back the next year and tried again which finally worked out.



In 2007 Houston were wise to trade for QB Matt Schaub from Atlanta. The 2007 draft for QB's was terrible. They got five or six good years from Schaub and made the postseason twice.





Again why i say a guy like Mike Glennon could be good if another team gave him a shot.





If you need a QB the best thing to do is draft one every season or two until you find the right one. Some may think thats crazy but it works. I think teams should draft a QB in the second or third round as often as they can until they do find their franchise QB.



Philly and Carolina both took different approaches but since they drafted a QB more often it did eventually work out for them both.



After Seattle had let Matt Hasselbeck go they were desperate for a QB and went through quite a few as they brought in Charlie Whitehurst that didn't work out. Then they brought in Matt Flynn who signed a three-year deal worth $20.5 million. Flynn was brought in to compete with 2011 starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and 2012 NFL Draft third round pick Russell Wilson for the starting quarterback position.



The team was wise enough not to let money dictate their decision and saw Wilson was the best player. On most teams Wilson would've never started due to the amount of money Flynn was making. They took every approach possible and it worked out with third round pick Russell Wilson playing well and becoming franchise QB and Super Bowl champion.





In 2012 Seattle was another team at a crossroads like Tennessee and Cincinnati the year before. Seattle had finished with three straight losing seasons before drafting Wilson and turning things around.



San Francisco had endured eight straight losing seasons before finally turning things around drafting Colin Kaepernick in the second round in 2011 and going to the NFC championship that year and a Super Bowl berth in 2012.



In 2013 new Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians was wise enough to look for veteran QB's instead of trying to force things with a rookie in the draft. He brought in Drew Stanton first then a month later Carson Palmer. Arians went 10-6 in 2013 and 11-5 in 2014. He drafted QB Logan Thomas in the fourth round in 2014. Safe to say he wouldn't have had a winning record if he'd have reached for a QB especially in his first season 2013 a decision that wisely looks correct looking back on it.



All the teams that had many losing seasons like Cincy,Seattle and San Francisco started winning in 2011/2012 because they didn't reach for QB's. Second round pick Andy Dalton/Cincy,Third round pick Russell Wilson/Seahawks,Second round pick Colin Kaepernick/49ers were all good examples of teams that drafted wisely.





Teams that reached in 2011 have still have not had winning seasons:Blaine Gabbert/Jags;Jake Locker/Titans;Christian Ponder/Vikes. In fact each one of these teams have already moved on and drafted what should better QB in 2014. Too early to see exactly how it will impact overall.



In 2007 Oakland made one of the biggest blunders ever by drafting QB Jamarcus Russell. After moving on from Russell they brought in a better QB Carson Palmer and nearly had a winning record in 2011 under Hue Jackson but organiztion dysfunction derailed things. Finally in 2014 the team had a good draft getting QB Derek Carr who looks like the long term answer twelve years after Rich Gannon took them to the Super Bowl.



Another AFC west team struggled at QB until finding a team that drafted a promising rookie and was looking to unload a good vet. Those deals don't happen much which was good for Kansas City as they traded a pair of second round picks to San Francisco for Alex Smith. That worked great for K.C. as they were 2-14 in 2012 and when Alex Smith became starter they went 11-5.



Phillip Rivers would definitely be a vet that could make this or another team look better immediately. Someone i wouldn't want is Jay Cutler. He makes too many mistakes and lacks leadership.



When a team has a choice between drafting a QB and a vet they always need to take a vet if is a rare opportunity to get a good QB and make the team better. Denver,Arizona and Kansas City are good examples. It remains to be seen if Nick Foles will be the final missing piece to winning in St. Louis. I think Fisher got the best end of that deal that sent Sam Bradford to Philly. Bradford can't stay healthy so this could backfire on Chip Kelly unless he has something special planned for the NFL draft.......







Last year at this time Jerry Jones was locked in on QB Johnny Manziel. Jones's son and the other brass in Dallas had to literally talk sense into him and make him see the fact that Manziel wasn't a sure thing plus they still had Tony Romo. Jerry Jones i'm sure is very thankful for the advice and glad he listened for once and cooler heads prevailed.



Meanwhile Cleveland did a million dollar study on the QB class last year and the advice was take Teddy Bridgewater. Instead they took Manziel because the owner took the advice of a homeless man. Owner Haslam isn't off to a good start in Cleveland whatsoever. Besides that they took the best QB they've had in a decade Brian Hoyer and decided to let him walk and brought in Josh McCown. I think Cleveland would've been good with Bridgewater........








If teams did take the time to do their research which i've shown here then they would open their eyes and see that the ones that are desperate and the ones that keep reaching for QB's will keep on losing until they change their strategy.

did you write all of this?

 

[Clayton]

If the Cleveland Browns would have taken Tom Brady with the first overall pick in the 1999 NFL draft instead of Tim Couch and New England would have snagged Couch in the 6th round of that draft is Brady still a HOFer and Couch still a bust? Hard to know.

Brady would have always been successful no matter the team. I feel that much is obvious. I mentioned him on the Rams being bad in that their talent got depleted so much that Brady probably would've been in shellshock from getting hit so much by year 5. A team like the Browns probably would've ruined him eventually, too, but he would've shown flashes of being Brady. He is too good not to.

Couch would always be a bust. When Bradford came out, a lot of people said that Bradford could bust for the same reasons Couch did in that his ability wouldnt translate to the NFL pro game in the right way.

Pennington wasn't a bust but he wasn't a good enough athlete to stay in the game. He is still the archetype of a good, accurate QB who doesn't have arm strength but for every Pennington there are 20 Christian Ponders.

 

[tducey]

Amazing to look at that 2000 draft and see that those 6 QB's got picked before Brady and aside from Pennington and Bulger they where scrubs.

 

[Clayton]

Amazing to look at that 2000 draft and see that those 6 QB's got picked before Brady and aside from Pennington and Bulger they where scrubs.

Honestly, you have to think the Michigan coaching staff deserves the blame for platooning him with a nobody QB and not seeing Brady's upside.

Thats the problem with a lot of the QBs these days now. Almost none of them are actually getting developed correctly in college. I think the days of plug and play QBs are over with maybe a Big Ben popping up every year or two.

 

[MIKE75]

did you write all of this?

Yes i did write all of it i might've look at wikipedia to see if my facts were right at times. I like to read and i guess at times i think of something like a topic that interests me and i'll write stuff off the top of my head. I would love to be a writer and do articles but i have to get better at my paragraphs and editing.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Yes i did write all of it i might've look at wikipedia to see if my facts were right at times. I like to read and i guess at times i think of something like a topic that interests me and i'll write stuff off the top of my head. I would love to be a writer and do articles but i have to get better at my paragraphs and editing.

you're new here.

this aint a grammar and editing contest...i just asked if you did write it, because thats a lot of typing. you should ask hammer for a bonus.

 

[MIKE75]

did you write all of this?

Like i just said i know i have to hone my skills a bit better like my editing and whatnot. So what did you think as far as what i wrote? Was it too long?