THE PAC 12 THREAD v.3

[Louie26]

Article on ESPN says defense gonna be the problem with Oregon next year not offense.

Even with the loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T, the Oregon Ducks can lay claim to being a perennial powerhouse. The Ducks have posted 10 or more wins in seven straight seasons, and coach Mark Helfrich's 24-4 record is the best start by a Pac-12 coach in more than 60 years.

As impressive as those achievements are, this program still has to win a national title before it can truly take its place as an elite program.

Losing quarterback Marcus Mariota to the NFL draft will make it harder to reach that goal, but the reality is that Mariota's departure is far from the biggest hurdle the Ducks will face in 2015. Without some significant defensive improvements, this team will be hard pressed to repeat as Pac-12 champion.

Offensive talent won't be an issue

Replacing Mariota, who was arguably the best quarterback in college football history, won't be easy, but the Ducks have a ton of talented players ready to step up.

It starts with running back Royce Freeman, who was the Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year. He set an Oregon record for most rushing yards by a freshman (1,365), led the Pac-12 in total touchdowns (19) and ranked 10th among Power 5 running backs in rushing plays of 10 or more yards against Power 5 teams (35).Freeman is far from the only impact skill position player returning. The Ducks also have Byron Marshall, a hybrid running back/wide receiver who ranked 19th nationally among Power 5 pass-catchers in receiving yards against Power 5 teams (849), and Thomas Tyner, whose 573 rushing yards last season ranked 15th in the Pac-12. All told, the Ducks bring back nine players who caught at least 10 passes last season. They return 72.9 percent of their rushing yards and 90 percent of their receiving yards.

A couple of highly ranked recruits are committed for 2015 too. That group includes Taj Griffin, an early enrollee who is the No. 4-ranked running back in ESPN's 2015 recruiting rankings, and Malik Lovette, the No. 17 athlete who could end up as a full-time running back.

Get back to Chip Kelly's formula
The most notable change since Helfrich took over as coach has been the move away from one of Chip Kelly's key philosophies. In 2014, the Ducks continued to play the fast-paced portion of Kelly's offensive system, as according to ESPN Stats & Information their 21.6 seconds of possession per play ranked as the sixth-lowest mark among Power 5 teams.

Where the change occurred is in the pass-to-run ratio. Last season, Oregon had its lowest per game rushing yardage (234.5) and highest per game passing yardage (312.5) since Kelly took over as offensive coordinator in 2007.

The change is understandable given Mariota's skill set, and it did lead to an increase in expected points added. This ESPN Stats & Info statistic measures the scoreboard impact of plays based on a wide variety of game situation elements.

The Ducks offense posted a superb 23.0 EPA in games against Power 5 teams last season, a mark that was the highest of the Kelly-Helfrich era, but it was only 1.4 points higher than what the team posted in 2013 (21.6) and only 3.1 points higher than the 2012 mark (19.9).

To put some additional perspective on those numbers, the 2012 and 2013 clubs both placed in the top five in EPA among teams in major conferences in games against major conference foes. Even if a return to the Kelly run-first offense, which would be strongly recommended given Oregon's depth of ball-carrying talent, puts the Ducks back to their former EPA production level, this will still be one of the best offenses in college football.

Defense was mediocre even before the Ohio State game

The problem for Oregon is that its defensive woes did not begin against Ohio State.

This becomes evident when noting the collection of mediocre statistics this platoon had posted prior to the game against the Buckeyes.

Coming into that contest, Oregon's defense ranked 36th among the 65 Power 5 teams in opponent Total QBR (46.1), 42nd in yards allowed per game (424.8), 30th in yards allowed per rush (4.2), 41st in percentage of rush plays that gained 5 or more yards (40.2 percent), 48th in sack percentage (5.4 percent), 52nd in first downs allowed per game (23.2) and 36th in opponent third-down conversion rate (41.4 percent).

Huge defensive personnel losses
The Ducks will be hard pressed to improve on those numbers given the volume of impactful personnel losses they have on that side of the ball.

Oregon is losing two of its top pass-rushers (Arik Armstead and Tony Washington), an All-Pac-12-caliber cornerback (Ifo Ekpre-Olomu), its top interceptor and tackler (Erick Dargan, who had a Pac-12-leading seven picks to go along with 95 tackles) and its second-leading tackler (Derrick Malone Jr., 85 tackles). The departures also hit the team from a depth perspective, as Oregon loses six of its top 10 tacklers and 10 of its 13 interceptions.

Recruiting has not replenished the defensive talent well

As noted above, Oregon's recruiting has been strong in the skill positions, but it hasn't held up quite as well on defense. This is especially true in the front seven.

"On defense, Oregon has hit with a number of individual guys over the past few years, but they haven't been nearly as successful at defensive line or linebacker as they have been with other positions such as running back or cornerback," ESPN Pac-12 recruiting reporter Erik McKinney said. "Going back to the 2011 class -- the one that featured Mariota and Ekpre-Olomu -- if you look at the top five prospects signed each year, including the 2015 class, just six of the 25 players play on the defensive side of the ball."

McKinney went on to note that Oregon did land a potentially elite, immediate impact defensive lineman in Canton Kaumatule for this class but that the Ducks were going to have to cover a hole in their 2013 recruiting when they didn't sign a single defensive lineman. (Torrodney Prevot signed as a defensive end but ended up playing as an outside linebacker.)

The bottom line

The Kelly/Helfrich Ducks have always been offensive-centric, so a disparity in offensive and defensive talent levels is not a guarantee that this club is going to suddenly drop out of contention.

Having noted this, the Buckeyes showed the world the type of football that it takes to nullify Oregon's offensive advantages. Add that blueprint to what could be a declining defense and the Ducks' return to the top of the Pac-12 may be short-lived.

Losing 2 top CB's and in Hill and Olomu and FS Dargan will hurt. And I think this will be the biggest area of need. I think we have good DB's, just don't have the leadership the previous guys brought.

Losing Armstead, Tony Washington, and Malone will hurt. I'm more comfortable with these replacements, I think we're set at LB.


Offensively, yeah, Mariota is gone, I like Malhalak(I know you aren't as impressed), an eventual replacement. Lockie and Alie will get their shot, but I think, barring injury, he takes the reigns at some point, more than likely sooner than later. Other than Mariota, which is a huge loss, I'm not concerned offensively.

I'm glad we're playing SC this year. It's gonna be a tough test, I hate cupcakes. Obviously, having to play games within a conference, no getting around it. As much as I hated losing to Arizona, I'm glad they played them in the PAC 12 Championship.

 

[Louie26]

If you take ten seconds to read other posts on the matter, you'll see where I clearly stated who will win the north imo.

I could repeat myself over and over for oregone fans, but it's an exercise in futility.

DUDE, don't take yourself SO seriously. The reason I said that, is because he has the SAME NAME as me. It was said in JEST!! It had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR POST!!

Don't get your panties all in a wad man, WOW!

 

[963BUSC]

S.I. Too Early Pac Rankings;


Way-Too-Early 2015 College Football Top 25: Ohio State, TCU, Auburn lead pack - College Football - SI.com


SI Ranking
#6. @Oregon
#8. UCLA
#12. STANFORD
#13. @A-state
#14. Zona
#17. USC


Personally I like these better than a lot of the other ones. SC in the upper teens looks more accurate to start the season.

 

[Not Neutral]

S.I. Too Early Pac Rankings;


Way-Too-Early 2015 College Football Top 25: Ohio State, TCU, Auburn lead pack - College Football - SI.com


SI Ranking
#6. @Oregon
#8. UCLA
#12. STANFORD
#13. @A-state
#14. Zona
#17. USC


Personally I like these better than a lot of the other ones. SC in the upper teens looks more accurate to start the season.

Gutless forecasting, not that SI has ever been good, not even a good guess.

USC*
ASU*
UCLA*
OREGON
Etc...

*may not in be in that order

 

[trojanfan12]

S.I. Too Early Pac Rankings;


Way-Too-Early 2015 College Football Top 25: Ohio State, TCU, Auburn lead pack - College Football - SI.com


SI Ranking
#6. @Oregon
#8. UCLA
#12. STANFORD
#13. @A-state
#14. Zona
#17. USC


Personally I like these better than a lot of the other ones. SC in the upper teens looks more accurate to start the season.

If they're good enough, they'll earn their way up into some of those other spots we've seen them in.

 

[WABLTY]

ASU had a decommit from a WR out of Louisiana, Alfred Smith. Maybe he wanted to stay closer to home, but I suspect he saw the writing on the wall. Probably means ASU is accepting commits from both Hawkins and Broadus unless USC suddenly decides it wants Snoop's kid again.

 

[socaljim242]

ASU had a decommit from a WR out of Louisiana, Alfred Smith. Maybe he wanted to stay closer to home, but I suspect he saw the writing on the wall. Probably means ASU is accepting commits from both Hawkins and Broadus unless USC suddenly decides it wants Snoop's kid again.

Gonna be interesting. Snoop has loved the recruiting of his son more than his son has. I dont have the link but you can google "snoop and son" and it's a pretty cool video and shows how Gorman High School is pretty much a college football bootcamp with all the money they have. I think ASU has been the front runner for him but now that Farmer declared and this latest kid is transferring they can see more playing time at SC as a possibility. I don't think Snoop wanted his kid at a school with so much WR talent that he wouldn't get playing time.

 

[963BUSC]

If they're good enough, they'll earn their way up into some of those other spots we've seen them in.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

Syracuse, N.Y. — Miami (Fla.) Central High School defensive end Keivonnis Davis flipped his verbal commitment from Syracuse to Oregon State on Wednesday, he confirmed during a phone call.

The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Davis cited two main reasons for his decision to commit to the Beavers three days after wrapping up his official visit at Syracuse: his relationship with recently hired OSU running backs coach Telly Lockette and the ability to enroll early and compete in the spring.

"There was an opportunity that sneaked its way through the cracks that I could graduate in March and get up to campus for spring ball," Davis said.

Beaver RB coach T Lockette seems to be worth his weight in recruiting gold. Guy has got 4 recruits to commit from the east coast in the past week.

OUTFUCKINGSTANDING MR LOCKETTE.

#EveryDamDay

 

[socaljim242]

Beaver RB coach T Lockette seems to be worth his weight in recruiting gold. Guy has got 4 recruits to commit from the east coast in the past week.

OUTFUCKINGSTANDING MR LOCKETTE.

#EveryDamDay

I thought you guys were tired of just getting 2*s. He's a 2* from across the country . Is that better?

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

Gutless forecasting, not that SI has ever been good, not even a good guess.

USC*
ASU*
UCLA*
OREGON
Etc...

*may not in be in that order

LOL - think they carry a bit more weight than a fan on a message board typing with one hand.

 

[socaljim242]

LOL - think they carry a bit more weight than a fan on a message board typing with one hand.

According to SIs 2014 predictions we should be hailing FSU as champs so the one handed guy might have just as good a shot at picking teams as they do.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

I thought you guys were tired of just getting 2*s. He's a 2* from across the country . Is that better?

THAT'S ALL we get at State, yeah I'll take him from wherever AND well see you Trojans on a Thurs nite in Corvallis soon.

 

[socaljim242]

THAT'S ALL we get at State, yeah I'll take him from wherever AND well see you Trojans on a Thurs nite in Corvallis soon.

Fuck. I hate Thursday night games especially in Corvallis.

 

[963BUSC]

Fuck. I hate Thursday night games especially in Corvallis.

Almost guarantee a bad outcome - and you can't drink to forget or you have to call in for work.

 

[NativeWebfoot]

I thought you guys were tired of just getting 2*s. He's a 2* from across the country . Is that better?

I can't remember for sure, but I don't think Riley ever got any recruits ranked in the top 5. Mostly he found unranked or ranked in the 50 - 100 range, then coached them up to be competitive. I'm really looking forward to this new Beavers team being assembled.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

^ I believe the Beavs just had a 4* WR decomitt and head over to Braska w/ him. Can't say I remember a higher recruit ranking under Riley to make it to State either, certainly never a top5 recruit at any position.

 

[RegentDenali]

4-star DE Benning Potoae (Lakewood, WA) has committed to Washington.

 

[socaljim242]

4-star DE Benning Potoae (Lakewood, WA) has committed to Washington.

Puts Washington in the top 25 in the country and 5th in the PAC in recruiting

 

[Olyduck]

4-star DE Benning Potoae (Lakewood, WA) has committed to Washington.

Thats surprising that a 4* would come from that area. woulndt think there is a lot of talent around there.