The Nuraman Thread

[nuraman00]

Your passion for this and thought process cracks me up (not in a condescending way). It's the thoroughness you have in your evaluations that make you reliable for information but also interesting to see how one can be so into it. Nerd. Just kidding, I like stats and logical questions to determine how the NBA works, too. Maybe I'm a poor-man's nerd?

No. You're the Lamborghini of nerds.

I am the Volkswagen.

 

[nuraman00]

If you do decide to ask him, I would think of the rivalries that you want to check rather than giving him a blank check or asking him to check every combination (and filtering those out to minimum standards of games). You know, like the Jazz-Pacers rivalry. Oh, those damn Pacers! Just kidding, I don't think we have a rivalry with them. If we do, someone ought to have told me.

If you include 20 games as the minimum, you're eliminating cross-conference rivalries like Lakers-Celtics - unless the Finals games are enough. Let me guess, you don't see the Lakers-Celtics as a rivalry, except in the Finals, because the limitation of effect on playoff seeding (conference games break ties but games against the other conference don't), two games per year is weaker than 4, and the media is the one who builds them up. Is Brooklyn and Knicks increasing their rivalry due to the move, or was it always strong as it is now/will be?

Well, I didn't say this because my post was already getting too wordy, but for cross-conferences, it would be 10 games. (So that would be about 2 series worth). So that would get both repeated Dallas-Miami and Boston-Lakers encounters in the past 20 years. As well as the Jazz-Bulls.


I do like interconference matchups a lot. For the Jazz, these are the ones that stand out, recently:

* Jazz-Pistons. I think this was only good when Memo was still on the team, and the Jazz might have made it too one-sided to make it a great rivalry, but it's one that stands out to me, and I look forward to it. Right now though, Detroit has to win a little bit more, they're too sucky.

* Jazz - Heat: There's the 3OT game from a few years ago, and then the game last year. Those are at least two good games, and hopefully there were a few more.

* Jazz - Raptors: 3OT game this year, 2 OT game last year, and the game 4 years ago where I was mad that the Jazz didn't win wire-to-wire. They lost the lead in the 3Q, and Clintonite33 said, of Calderon, "he's just diming us to death".

* Jazz-Knickerbockers: There've been some close games the past 4 years.



Of course, it would help if the Jazz met one of these teams in the playoffs.


Nets-Knicks wasn't a rivalry because both teams weren't good at the same time. This is the first year that they're both good, so it's starting. Yes they both met in the playoffs in 2004, but the Nets swept, and it was not a good series. That doesn't help make a rivalry. And it was a 2 vs. 7 seed.

 

[MHSL82]

Come back, Nuraman! You're killing us! Just kidding, you must be busy and now the Jazz play twice in one week span.

 

[MHSL82]

Hey, we had the watered down version of the box score we were looking for. Everyone on the Jazz were within one shot of 50% or above. I know it isn't as good as if everyone were 50% or above, but they're hard to find on the day of.

Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz

 

[MHSL82]

Hey, we had the watered down version of the box score we were looking for. Everyone on the Jazz were within one shot of 50% or above. I know it isn't as good as if everyone were 50% or above, but they're hard to find on the day of.

Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz

I found a game that was one more step away from the watered down version of the box score we were looking for. Everyone on the Jazz were within one shot of 50% or above except for one player. I know it isn't as good as if everyone were 50% or above, or if all were shooting within one shot of 50%, but they're hard to find on the day of.



Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz

 

[MHSL82]

I found a game that was one more step away from the watered down version of the box score we were looking for. Everyone on the Jazz were within one shot of 50% or above except for one player. I know it isn't as good as if everyone were 50% or above, or if all were shooting within one shot of 50%, but they're hard to find on the day of.



Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz

A. Lot. Of. Threes. They shot much better from three (57%) than from two (45%). They at one point were shooting 77% from three. It might have been higher (not including 1/1 or 2/2, etc.) but I wasn't looking the whole game. The box score was close to my parameters, except again, one guy.

 

[MHSL82]

Nuraman, I need your help on making a prediction.

Jeremy Lin, in the last 44 games is shooting 46.6% from the field. In his first 12, he shot 33.3%. In his last 10, he's shot 50.4%. There are 26 games left of the season. In the last 26 games, he's shot 44.5%. For the season, he's a 43.8% shooter. For his career, he's 43.6%.

If I wanted to predict how he would do the rest of the season, what would be the best method to use? I would think the season or career averages would be most reliable, and certainly would be to determine a range, but for the most accurate prediction, that doesn't account for current adjustments he has made and will likely stick to in shot selection and minor improvement in shooting. 44 games seems like a pretty good sample size and so does 26, but of course, 56 is the biggest this season. 119 for his career is the largest overall.

So, in your opinion, what would be the best method for prediction?

 

[MHSL82]

How about something like averages, like assists or points? Is that different than rates like shooting percentage? Assuming no major injuries to Harden or anything. Haden's only missed one game this year, so that hasn't affected Lin's role. Adjustments may have lead to more/better scoring, especially if the shooting percentage has improved (assuming same average of shots).

Just some numbers. In the first 19 games, he averaged 9.9 points. In the last 37 games, he's averaged 14.4. For the season, he averages 12.9. There are 26 games left. For the last 26 games, he averages 13.9 points. For the last 9 games, he's averaged 17.4 points (16.6 for last 10). 11.9 first half (28 games) and 13.9 in second half...

 

[MHSL82]

They really need to fix the +/- stat in box scores live on ESPN. The Brooklyn-Houston game is tied at 15-15 and it says that one player's +/- is -37. Only the starters have played, so they should all have the same +/- and that should be the easiest calculation! Player's team's score minus other team's score. After that, it gets more difficult, but have it working at least until then or don't have it there, because later when it's lower in the 10's or something, I can't assume anything if it's screwed up. Otherwise, I'd have a ballpark!

 

[MHSL82]

I found a game that was one more step away from the watered down version of the box score we were looking for. Everyone on the Jazz were within one shot of 50% or above except for one player. I know it isn't as good as if everyone were 50% or above, or if all were shooting within one shot of 50%, but they're hard to find on the day of.



Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers - Box Score - February 23, 2013 - ESPN

Here's a game that met our requirements. I still haven't found one that had all players at or over 50% or have we and I just forgot? Anyway, the Heat shot 58.4%.

 

[MHSL82]

Check out JJ Hickson's streak.

He's shooting 108-164 (65.9%) in the last 18 games (consecutive over 50%)(still going). Dwight Howard holds the record for consecutive 50% or above games since 1986 at 31.

Stockton had 24 from 2/17/1988 - 04/05/1988.

LeBron has a 12-game streak going. Tyson Chandler has a lot of these streaks, his current is 21.

 

[MHSL82]

Loving this streak-finder thing - Rajon Rondo matched Stockton's record of 37 games in a row with at least 10 assists. Both players did it bridging two seasons. Stockton had more at the end of 1988-89 season (27) and Rondo had more at the start of 2013. Rondo's streak ended well before his injury and Rondo's last game this season was a triple double. Magic had 20, all in one season. Stockton had 27 in one season, three years in a row (but one was in the previous 37 game streak).

Rondo had 28 of 11+ in a row and Stockton had 27. (Magic had 12).
Stockton had 15 games in arrow with 12+ and Rondo had 11.(Magic had 11).
Stockton had 14 games in a row with 13+ and Rondo had 5.(Magic had 11).
Stockton had 14 games in a row with 14+ and Rondo had 3 (Magic had 11).
Stockton had 12 games in a row with 15+ and Rondo had 3 (Magic had 6).
Stockton had 9 games in a row with 16+ and Rondo had 2 (Magic had 3).
Stockton had 5 games in a row with 17+ and Rondo had 2 (Magic had 3).
Stockton had 5 games in a row with 18+ and Rondo had 0 (Magic had 2).
Stockton had 4 games in a row with 18+ and Rondo had 0 (Magic had 0). Deron Williams had 2.
Stockton has had consecutive 20+ games 7 different times.
Stockton has had consecutive 21+ games 3 different times.

Stockton has had 24 games of 20 or more assists. He's had one game of 28, 27, and 26 assists. The record is 30 by Scott Skiles.

 

[MHSL82]

Stockton also has the record of 29 and 26 consecutive games of 2+ steals.

Alvin Robertson is the Stockton of Steals, though.
He had 105 games in a row with at least one steal. Chris Paul had 104 and 84. Jordan was fourth with 77 games. Stockton was 16th with 41.
He had 15 games of 3+ and 11 games of 4+ and 6 of 5+ and 6+.

He and Stockton have consecutive games of 7+ (a few others do too). He also has 2 games in a row of 8+. Michael Ray Richardson is the only one else to have done that.

 

[MHSL82]

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers - Box Score - February 23, 2013 - ESPN

Here's a game that met our requirements. I still haven't found one that had all players at or over 50% or have we and I just forgot? Anyway, the Heat shot 58.4%.

This is getting so common that I think I will now only note it when all players shoot 50% or above. This within one is too loose. I don't even look at very many box scores.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat

 

[MHSL82]

This is getting so common that I think I will now only note it when all players shoot 50% or above. This within one is too loose. I don't even look at very many box scores.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat

Wrong. I will note it, but only if I see it by coincidence. I'm not going to look for it, I have to have another reason to even be looking at the box score. Sort of like the seatbelt law originally could only be checked if some other violation like speeding occurred. This fits the almost-there requirements.

Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets - Box Score - April 14, 2013 - ESPN

 

[MHSL82]

Wrong. I will note it, but only if I see it by coincidence. I'm not going to look for it, I have to have another reason to even be looking at the box score. Sort of like the seatbelt law originally could only be checked if some other violation like speeding occurred. This fits the almost-there requirements.

Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets - Box Score - April 14, 2013 - ESPN

Darn, Lopez! We almost got the opposite where everyone shot less than 50%.

Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets - Box Score

 

[nuraman00]

Darn, Lopez! We almost got the opposite where everyone shot less than 50%.

Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets - Box Score

And Evans.

 

[MHSL82]

Darn, Lopez! We almost got the opposite where everyone shot less than 50%.

Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets - Box Score

And Evans.

You're right. I started from the bottom because for some reason I always do that. And when I saw 7-14 from Lopez, I was so disappointed I stopped looking. I do this for a living, you know. I take pride in finding good and bad box scores sporadically and inaccurately and stretching my qualifications for what fits our requirements.

 

[nuraman00]

You're right. I started from the bottom because for some reason I always do that. And when I saw 7-14 from Lopez, I was so disappointed I stopped looking. I do this for a living, you know. I take pride in finding good and bad box scores sporadically and inaccurately and stretching my qualifications for what fits our requirements.

I do know.

 

[MHSL82]

I do know.

Arrogant robot. You think you know everything, even the obvious. You robots make me sick. Actually, not sick literally, but the strobe robots make me feel a bit hypnotized or seizurish.