The Normal Distribution Rule

[augustisback003]

I guarantee at least one of these players will be a Bengal next season. As you all know I found an interesting trend a couple of years ago when the Normal distribution is applied while using the Bengal's pick as the mean you get a very accurate prediction of the Bengal's pick. The only anomalies since 2003 being the selections of Chris Perry and Leon Hall, the latter who unexpectedly fell to the Bengals at the 17th pick. That's 7 of 9 picks selected correctly for 77.8% rate of accuracy. The players I really like are Mark Barron, David Decastro, Devon Still and a player who's a little lower on the list Lamar Miller who's ranked 29th overall. An interesting observation is an overlap of the Burfict, Brockers and Floyd, who are ranked 18th, 19th and 20th, being listed on both lists.

ESPN rank (draft grade)

14th Mark Barron S 6'1½" 223 Alabama (93)
15th David Decastro OG 6'4½" 313 Stanford (92)
16th Courtney Upshaw OLB 6'1¾" 271 Alabama (92)
17th Sam Montgomery DE 6'4" 245 LSU (92)
18th Vontaze Burfict ILB 6'3" 252 Arizona State (92)
19th Michael Brockers DT 6'6" 306 LSU (92)
20th Michael Floyd WR 6'3" 229 Notre Dame (91)

18th Vontaze Burfict ILB 6'3" 252 Arizona State (92)
19th Michael Brockers DT 6'6" 306 LSU (92)
20th Michael Floyd WR 6'3" 229 Notre Dame (91)
21st Devon Still DT 6'5¼" 307 Penn State (91)
22nd David Wilson RB 5'10" 205 Virginia Tech (90)
23rd Fletcher Cox DT 6'3¾" 296 Mississippi State (90)
24th Alfonzo Dennard CB 5'9¾" 204 Nebraska (89)

 

[Servo]

you're trying to predict an unpredictable phenomenon. That being said DeCastro + pretty much anybody will make me happy....with your list gimme DeCastro + Still.

 

[Tubbs1518]

I don't want a DT in the first, wasted pick. With that list give me DeCastro and either Michael Flloyd or Alfonzo Dennard.

 

[Servo]

Still would be a steal...wont matter as he'll be long gone. I'm telling you Tubbs when the front 4 misses Pat Simms there's a problem. They've been gashed in the run game recently.

 

[cincygrad]

You guys aren't concerned about Denard after that bowl appearance? I think that SC kid made him look like a clown.

Then again, Leon Hall had his bowl struggles and I've been, for the most part, pleased with his tenure with the Bengals.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Still would be a steal...wont matter as he'll be long gone. I'm telling you Tubbs when the front 4 misses Pat Simms there's a problem. They've been gashed in the run game recently.

DT is not a big enough problem to warrent a 1st rounder. We need 2 OG's, CB, S, RB. Sims will more than likely be back next year, and even if he isn't those other 4 positions are still bigger needs.

 

[Tubbs1518]

You guys aren't concerned about Denard after that bowl appearance? I think that SC kid made him look like a clown.

Then again, Leon Hall had his bowl struggles and I've been, for the most part, pleased with his tenure with the Bengals.

That SC kid has made a lot of people look silly.

 

[Servo]

Denard kinda strikes me as a punk. If we're going to draft a punk in the 1st I'd prefer it to be Janoris Jenkins (who shut down both AJ Green and Julio Jones in college).

 

[Tubbs1518]

Jenkins wasn't even 1st team all american this year against much less talented players. I'm not sure if I trust him. That being said I think Jenkins is gone before we pick.

 

[Servo]

DT is not a big enough problem to warrent a 1st rounder. We need 2 OG's, CB, S, RB. Sims will more than likely be back next year, and even if he isn't those other 4 positions are still bigger needs.

Rather have a stud DT...every team could benefit from a guy like Still up front. This team clearly needs to get more stout v. the run. Honestly, Clements, Jones and Jennigns werent that bad down the stretch.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Please. Clements, Jones and Jennings were terrible. It got masked by the fact they played TJ Yates, Flacco, Skeleton, Clemons. They were terrible. That crappy run D shut Foster down not what 5 weeks ago. They also shut down Steven Jackson and Beenie Wells. They had a bad last 2 games yeah, for the year they were very good. Also a lot of the reason the run D is bad is Rey's bad play.

 

[Servo]

Rey is terrible. That we can agree on. But that front 4 looked pretty pourous to me on the interior. It depends on who would be available at CB (not disputing that's a need...it's one too) but if Still is there I'd take him certainly over Denard (who I've never found to be that impressive). I'd take him over Jenkins (who has the skills but you gotta wonder about his head). Like I said though, gimme at least one OG in the first and I'll be happy. If I had my druthers I'd take both DeCastro and Glenn.

 

[augustisback003]

You guys aren't concerned about Denard after that bowl appearance? I think that SC kid made him look like a clown.

Then again, Leon Hall had his bowl struggles and I've been, for the most part, pleased with his tenure with the Bengals.

I have MAJOR reservations about Denard after Alshon Jeffery abused him in the Citrus Bowl. He needed to step up in that game and he didn't which will affect his draft stock.

 

[Servo]

I have MAJOR reservations about Denard after Alshon Jeffery abused him in the Citrus Bowl. He needed to step up in that game and he didn't which will affect his draft stock.

plus he just seems like a jergoff to me. He's like a low reward/high risk guy.

 

[Tubbs1518]

I'm fine with going with the Hayward kid from Vandy in the 4th. That kid is impressive.

 

[cincygrad]

I have MAJOR reservations about Denard after Alshon Jeffery abused him in the Citrus Bowl. He needed to step up in that game and he didn't which will affect his draft stock.

I feel the same way.... I did not watch a lot of Nebraska this season, but did hear about this kid. Makes you wonder whether he would have been more exposed had he played more dynamic passing teams before the bowl.

 

[augustisback003]

I'm really starting to like Devon Still who could be special in the right scheme. Though he's listed as a DT he reminds me ALOT of another Penn State alum in Tamba Hali. He's athletic and agile enough to play DE in our base and then switch inside in our nickle and dime defense. I'm telling you right now go and research Still and you'll come away impressed.

 

[Servo]

I'm fine with going with the Hayward kid from Vandy in the 4th. That kid is impressive.

love him. I'd snatch him up in the 3rd. Great player. one of the more (if not the) most underrated players in the draft.

 

[augustisback003]

This guy does not look like a 300 pounder! Wow!

Devon Still 2011 PSU football highlights - YouTube

 

[Tubbs1518]

I'm torn because there are a number of players I would like to grab in the third. I like Pead, LaMichael James, Hayward along with a few others. Too bad we won't be getting that 3rd round comp pick.