if ecr/adp were depth charts (rb)

[MilkSpiller22]

Let me say it this way. Being the first year of a players salary or draft position are the best ways to predict a teams starter. Especially this early.

 

[TREFF]

Let me say it this way. Being the first year of a players salary or draft position are the best ways to predict a teams starter. Especially this early.

It's the lazy way, not requiring thought.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Nyheim Hines will make 3x as much as JTaylor this year as his backup, the money doesn't tell the whole story but the names on the list ahead of Hines and Edmonds are all the guys I'd consider workhorse backs. It's definitely a possibility MIA view Edmonds this way, but he's never put it altogether when he's been given the chance in zona so we'll see.

 

[TREFF]

Look, it's all fine and good to pencil in a depth chart, in June, based on salary/draft position. But we're not simply just writing a list, we're trying to forecast fantasy assets, who's going to score the most points, not who is getting the first team reps during week one of training camp.
And that has little to do with the contract, as once the games mean something, once the coaches ass is on the line to rack up W's, the amount of zeros on the check is largely irrelevant.

Did money/draft stock matter in Flynn v Russel Wilson? Did it matter in Eddie Lacy v any RB Seattle could find off the street? Did it keep the Skins from suspending Haynesworth? Is Tyler Boyd going to be more productive than Chase or Higgins? Is Adam Thielen the guy to own in Minn? Will it insure Marriota starts 17 games? Will it keep Penny as the RB1 in Seattle? Did it stop Pollard from taking a huge chunk of Zeke's opportunities? Was it Sermon or Mitchell who blew up for SF? Anyone think Melvin Gordon is the RB1 in Denver? Did Carlos Hydes salary fend off James Robinson? Did the surefire HOF status and boatload of cash help Adrian Peterson earn a role in New Orleans, or did they give him the boot when Kamara showed up? Same for Mark Ingram, but at least he kept his roster spot, his contract and pedigree sure didn't keep Kamara on the bench though eh?
And on and on and on and on..

We're talking about ADP, fantasy value, for the upcoming season. Not mindlessly placing names on a list. The discussion is, should those names have the ADP that they currently have, given the possibility/probability of what they can/will produce for the upcoming year. And drafting Edmonds over Michel and Mostert, based on a pretend depth chart, primarily contrived by salaries/draft status is a big mistake, imho, as those other two dudes have better, more proven, track records of actually producing numbers. **edited- 2 dudes?, make it three, Gaskins has a better, more proven track record too** All Edmonds has is a few flashy plays in a select few games, and a fairly large contract.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Look, it's all fine and good to pencil in a depth chart, in June, based on salary/draft position. But we're not simply just writing a list, we're trying to forecast fantasy assets, who's going to score the most points, not who is getting the first team reps during week one of training camp.
And that has little to do with the contract, as once the games mean something, once the coaches ass is on the line to rack up W's, the amount of zeros on the check is largely irrelevant.

Did money/draft stock matter in Flynn v Russel Wilson? Did it matter in Eddie Lacy v any RB Seattle could find off the street? Did it keep the Skins from suspending Haynesworth? Is Tyler Boyd going to be more productive than Chase or Higgins? Is Adam Thielen the guy to own in Minn? Will it insure Marriota starts 17 games? Will it keep Penny as the RB1 in Seattle? Did it stop Pollard from taking a huge chunk of Zeke's opportunities? Was it Sermon or Mitchell who blew up for SF? Anyone think Melvin Gordon is the RB1 in Denver? Did Carlos Hydes salary fend off James Robinson? Did the surefire HOF status and boatload of cash help Adrian Peterson earn a role in New Orleans, or did they give him the boot when Kamara showed up? Same for Mark Ingram, but at least he kept his roster spot, his contract and pedigree sure didn't keep Kamara on the bench though eh?
And on and on and on and on..

We're talking about ADP, fantasy value, for the upcoming season. Not mindlessly placing names on a list. The discussion is, should those names have the ADP that they currently have, given the possibility/probability of what they can/will produce for the upcoming year. And drafting Edmonds over Michel and Mostert, based on a pretend depth chart, primarily contrived by salaries/draft status is a big mistake, imho, as those other two dudes have better, more proven, track records of actually producing numbers. **edited- 2 dudes?, make it three, Gaskins has a better, more proven track record too** All Edmonds has is a few flashy plays in a select few games, and a fairly large contract.

but any player on year 2 or later of a big contract, the team already knows what they are, and if they were not good the team generally already would call it a loss and go elsewhere...

but a first year big contract, is very different... you dont pay a player unless you want to use that player...

i feel like your point is only good in hindsight after a team already is willing to go another way from their player... but we fantasy players dont have the luxury of hindsight... we can only use what we have...

 

[TREFF]

but any player on year 2 or later of a big contract, the team already knows what they are, and if they were not good the team generally already would call it a loss and go elsewhere...

but a first year big contract, is very different... you dont pay a player unless you want to use that player...

i feel like your point is only good in hindsight after a team already is willing to go another way from their player... but we fantasy players dont have the luxury of hindsight... we can only use what we have...

Smdh..it is the hindsght...that proven history which I'm referring to...in an effort to say...YOUR point about salary, has been proven meaningless
So when the opportunity presents itself to NOT repeat that mistake, perhaps someone might think twice, rather than double down on the same flawed mentality, like you're doing, right now

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Well at the end of the day a player has to earn his position, no matter his salary or draft capitol. However a team signs 3 vets as FAs to compete for a position and one gets paid substantially more he likely the favorite to begin with. They are paying him more for reason. He will still have to earn the position with his play, but he'll certainly will get opportunity to do so.

 

[averagejoe]

we're trying to forecast fantasy assets, who's going to score the most points, not who is getting the first team reps during week one of training camp. And that has little to do with the contract,

Mildly disagree.
Players that change teams are given a specific dollar amount based on their perceived involvement in the offense they landed on.
It could very well be that said player is truly not worth it and will fail x-amount of games into the season.
But as monkey eluded to, until the failure becomes evident to the coaching staff, they will be given EVERY opportunity to prove that the GM/team was justified in shelling out their contract.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Mildly disagree.
Players that change teams are given a specific dollar amount based on their perceived involvement in the offense they landed on.
It could very well be that said player is truly not worth it and will fail x-amount of games into the season.
But as monkey eluded to, until the failure becomes evident to the coaching staff, they will be given EVERY opportunity to prove that the GM/team was justified in shelling out their contract.

I find I look at players contract constantly to figure out/guess his future status on the team along with the teams cap space. Any time you see a player with a contract where he is now expensive, but pass any guaranteed money and the team is in a pickle cap wise it becomes obvious that the teams will move that player or at least redo the contract to make it work for the team and the cap.

 

[averagejoe]

And we cant forget the typical coaching narrative when said player shows signs of struggling....

...things like "we fell behind early and had to abandon our gameplan." Or, ""our defensive opponent came to play and shut down that aspect of our offense."

All of which is an excuse indicating the coaching staff is still behind its decision to play said player over the others.

 

[TREFF]

I really feel y'all are missing my overall point..that being, we're talking fantasy values, adp's, should this guy go over that guy..

I am NOT arguing that they won't be given every opportunity due to their contract or their draft status not in the slightest. I will GLADLY concede that point.

What I'm saying is that shortly after the year begins, or maybe even before, during camp/preseason, those chances are spent, and whomever is playing the best, providing the most production is going to be accumulating fantasy points, not the guy with the largest contract. Every. Single. Time with the rarest of exceptions.

In this instance, we are talking about up to 4 dudes, all of whom have multiple years of NFL evidence on film as to who is and who isn't the better player. And its VERY obvious that the dude is NOT Edmonds, and BTW, 3 of those 4 are ALL free agent signings this year, by this staff, so I couldn't give two hairs off of a rats ass what his contract is, when discussing which RB I would draft first from that team, or trade for/hold in a dynasty.

 

[leftypower]

Agree to some point with Treff - I think to base your perspective of depth chart solely on salary is a dangerous incorrect assumption. But as not-so-average-joe points out it is a tell-tale sign of who will likely get the opportunity to prove their worth one way or the other. ....
From a fantasy prospective, there are a few teams I want zero shares in their RB room - - and MIA tops that list.

 

[TREFF]

Agree to some point with Treff - I think to base your perspective of depth chart solely on salary is a dangerous incorrect assumption. But as not-so-average-joe points out it is a tell-tale sign of who will likely get the opportunity to prove their worth one way or the other. ....
From a fantasy prospective, there are a few teams I want zero shares in their RB room - - and MIA tops that list.

I'd rather have Michel than anyone from Houston..but it ain't by much.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I really feel y'all are missing my overall point..that being, we're talking fantasy values, adp's, should this guy go over that guy..

I am NOT arguing that they won't be given every opportunity due to their contract or their draft status not in the slightest. I will GLADLY concede that point.

What I'm saying is that shortly after the year begins, or maybe even before, during camp/preseason, those chances are spent, and whomever is playing the best, providing the most production is going to be accumulating fantasy points, not the guy with the largest contract. Every. Single. Time with the rarest of exceptions.

In this instance, we are talking about up to 4 dudes, all of whom have multiple years of NFL evidence on film as to who is and who isn't the better player. And its VERY obvious that the dude is NOT Edmonds, and BTW, 3 of those 4 are ALL free agent signings this year, by this staff, so I couldn't give two hairs off of a rats ass what his contract is, when discussing which RB I would draft first from that team, or trade for/hold in a dynasty.

thats the problem... your overall point is saying that the best player doing the best at the time will always get the job... well, of course... but how can we predict who will be the best player doing the best at the time?? and to think our opinions of players even matters is pretty dangerous... the opinions that matter are the coaches and the owners...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

In this instance, we are talking about up to 4 dudes, all of whom have multiple years of NFL evidence on film as to who is and who isn't the better player. And its VERY obvious that the dude is NOT Edmonds, and BTW, 3 of those 4 are ALL free agent signings this year, by this staff, so I couldn't give two hairs off of a rats ass what his contract is, when discussing which RB I would draft first from that team, or trade for/hold in a dynasty.

My own feeling is none of these RBs are obvious as a better player. Michel is the power back and averages 4.2 yards per carry, doesn't do much in catching department. Edmonds is more of a scat back who can run (4.7 yards per carry) and clearly is the most effective at contributing in the passing game. If the Dolphins thought Michel was superior he's be the one with the big salary. Mostert is injured too much to consider IMO.

At the end of the day none of these RBs are going to be attractive to own, but other then a standard scoring league Edmunds likely does as well as any of them and injury well be the most important factor.

 

[TREFF]

thats the problem... your overall point is saying that the best player doing the best at the time will always get the job... well, of course... but how can we predict who will be the best player doing the best at the time?? and to think our opinions of players even matters is pretty dangerous... the opinions that matter are the coaches and the owners...

because you have multiple years of NFL film to make that judgement..not some rookie who may or may not translate, or some 2nd year who never got a chance before. its pretty darned simple

 

[Clayton]

Has Joe Mixon ever had a good oline before?

 

[TREFF]

My own feeling is none of these RBs are obvious as a better player. Michel is the power back and averages 4.2 yards per carry, doesn't do much in catching department. Edmonds is more of a scat back who can run (4.7 yards per carry) and clearly is the most effective at contributing in the passing game. If the Dolphins thought Michel was superior he's be the one with the big salary. Mostert is injured too much to consider IMO.

At the end of the day none of these RBs are going to be attractive to own, but other then a standard scoring league Edmunds likely does as well as any of them and injury well be the most important factor.

right Edmonds is a scat back who averages 4.7..due in large part to being a 3rd back who gains 8 yards on 3rd and 15 draw plays quite often. As a real RB, his efforts have been mixed from bad to average at best, with the worst ones being the most recent ones, his best, 27 for 126, being years ago and his very first start. Michel had a very promising 2020, 9 games played and a 5.7 clip. New England years weren't bad until Harris came around, and yes the average went down early in 2020 in LA, but he certainly had Akers and Henderson on the bench to end the year in LA, and his YPC for that end run was significantly better than the year totals indicate
-edited as I got my NE years confused with last year--

And none of these guys, save for Gaskins has any semblance of reliably being available. Michel is bone on bone knees, Mostert gets hurt if you look at him sideways, and Edmonds generally hits the injury report after every other game where he gets more than 10 carries

 

[TREFF]

Has Joe Mixon ever had a good oline before?

not in my opinion no..although he hasn't had horrid ones either. average to below average, I think?

 

[Clayton]

not in my opinion no..although he hasn't had horrid ones either. average to below average, I think?

I know the year the Bengals bottomed out it was horrid. Last year...debatable? All I know is that seeing Mixon up there gives me fantasy PTSD.

Can Chris Evans or Perine challenge him in any way? Mixon seems like the clear #1 there