The Niners QB Situation (Past, Present, and Future)

[MHSL82]

I wanted to start a thread that wasn't titled with an opinion. We all know that we're going to be talking about this position forever. Either because it goes so well or because we have issues. We all know our crate past and most of us are optimistic about our future with Harbaugh. This is the thread where I will post what I see on Kaepernick or the draft, if a QB.

To start off, I thought this was a good and balanced article. I will post it below.

When the 49ers chased Peyton Manning and what it means now | Talking Points

 

[MHSL82]

When the 49ers chased Peyton Manning and what it means now

Yep, there’s little doubt that Jim Harbaugh, Trent Baalke, Jed York and Greg Roman can get very aggressive with personnel at the quarterback position.

Let’s flash back to March 2012, when the 49ers charged hard after free agent Peyton Manning, who had just been released by Indianapolis… while they also had a 3-year, $24M offer on the table to Alex Smith (their incumbent, playoff-game-winning starter) and had Colin Kaepernick, too.

So, in the wake of a very frustrating loss to the NY Giants in the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers were scheming and hoping for a theoretical QB depth chart of:

1-Manning, 2-Smith, 3-Kaepernick… (though they also knew Smith could and probably would decide to bolt if and when they signed Manning).

NOT A TERRIBLE GROUP OF QBs, by the way.

That was back when Harbaugh was being ultra-effusive about Smith, but after the NFC title-game loss and Manning became available, Harbaugh really never blinked in the chase for Manning.

And now, the 49ers are going on after recently losing an NFC title game and Harbaugh is being ultra-effusive about Kaepernick, so…

Wait. I’m not suggesting the 49ers will make a move for somebody to challenge Kaepernick’s starting spot in 2014. Not at all.

Harbaugh put a lot of credibility on the line in 2012 when made the switch from Smith to Kaepernick, he has mostly been proven right, and the 49ers have a young, dynamic QB who has been paid very little the last two years–a huge part of their playoff runs the past two seasons.

But after that wrenching loss to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, I just think it’s wise to remember that Harbaugh, Baalke and York have a history of going through every off-season option.

There won’t be another Peyton-level QB available for nothing–that was a once-in-a-generation possibility, and we see how it turned out for the team that got Manning.

One thing we’ve learned about the Harbaugh-Baalke-York triumvirate is that they often drop into situations–in the chase for a Super Bowl–you wouldn’t have normally expected.

Such as…

Back in March 2012, Manning was an unrestricted free agent but was clearly looking to stay in the AFC all along, and he bonded with Broncos exec John Elway, which is why he picked Denver…

Still, I believe the 49ers definitely finished second in the Manning Sweepstakes and pictured him leading them to Super Bowl titles.

Let’s go through each side of this one, with two years of hindsight, and try to figure out what it all means now…

* PEYTON MANNING made the right call, obviously. He got to stay in the AFC, he landed with a franchise uniquely set up to his abilities and personality, and he just threw 55 TD passes to set a new NFL record.

What would’ve happened if he’d signed with the 49ers? Impossible to know, and I don’t like to guess at these things–you can’t know if he would’ve stayed healthy, if he would’ve flourished in the Harbaugh/Roman offense, if he would’ve had chemistry with the 49ers receivers.

He would’ve been good, though. We know that. And he’s one victory away from his second Super Bowl title. There will be a lot of talk about his legacy if he wins–and I might be doing some of it–but most of Manning’s legacy is set.

With this last burst in the past two seasons because of his decision to go to Denver, Manning has unquestionably moved into the ranks as one of the top five NFL QBs of all time.

* THE 49ERS were not wrong to chase Manning; again, it’s impossible to know how much things would’ve been different last season (when the 49ers were one play away from winning the Super Bowl with Kaepernick taking over from Smith at mid-season) or this season (when the 49ers were one play away from beating Seattle in the NFC Championship Game)…

At the time they were trying to sign Manning, the 49ers knew they had Kaepernick developing–they probably assumed Kaepernick was one or two seasons away from becoming a winning NFL QB; it turns out, he was only a half-season away from taking over the 49ers offense.

Harbaugh and Baalke weren’t sure, until Smith’s injury and Kaepernick’s play made them sure, and it isn’t wrong to try to pile up all the QB talent possible.

The attempt to sign Manning so soon after Smith guided the 49ers to the NFC title game, however, showed that Harbaugh wasn’t as sold on Smith as he always said he was. Again, that wasn’t wrong, but it was insight into the way Harbaugh and the 49ers work.

* ALEX SMITH made the right call to stick it out with the 49ers for one more season, even after he had to watch the 49ers go after Manning and even knowing Kaepernick was on the horizon.

He played very well before he got hurt in 2012, experienced the Kaepernick ascension, then Smith was traded after the 2012 season to Kansas City for two 2nd-round draft picks.

He’s better off for having gone through all that he went through with the 49ers, and he’s better off in KC now with Andy Reid and a franchise set up around his skill set.

I guess the 49ers could’ve kept Smith as Kaepernick’s back up this season, but that wouldn’t have worked out well in the locker room–Smith deserves to be an NFL starter, and if it couldn’t be with the 49ers, it had to be elsewhere, and Smith’s 2013 season in KC proved that.

* KAEPERNICK is the QB the 49ers ended up with, probably for the long-, long-term, and that’s a good thing.

After his explosive debut season in 2012, this season Kaepernick started all 16 games, the 49ers went 12-4, and his runs and throws were huge factors in the 49ers’ road playoff victories over Green Bay and Carolina.

Harbaugh wanted to get more dynamic at the QB position, so, even after all the work to build Alex Smith back up, he had his eye on Kaepernick the whole time–drafting him in 2011, developing him, developing him…

I’ve written many times that I thought the chase for Manning had a little Kaepernick Component, too–what better QB for Kaepernick to study under for a year or two than Peyton?

They are essentially opposites right now:

-Manning is limited physically and doesn’t throw tightest spirals, but he reads, he anticipates, he gets the ball out exactly when he needs to and where he needs to;

-Kaepernick is instinctive, incredibly athletic, and sometimes doesn’t quite read things correctly and force passes where they shouldn’t go, as we all saw again in Seattle a few Sundays ago.

But the 49ers are in a good spot with Kaepernick, who, of course, is still only 26 and has started only 29 regular- and postseason games and has already won more big games on the road than most QBs do in their whole careers.

Can Kaepernick win a Super Bowl? He almost won one two years ago and he was close enough this season, again, at a very young point in his career, to figure that yes, with the right circumstances he can win one or two down the road.

By the way, I’ve seen some 49ers fans arguing that Smith would’ve gotten them past Seattle and I can only respond: That’s being incredibly situational–maybe Smith doesn’t make those two bad INT throws in the fourth quarter, but do you think he makes those runs in the first half to get the 49ers ahead?

Do you think Smith makes the plays down the stretch in Green Bay? Throws those passes to Anquan Boldin in key moments throughout the season? Impossible to know for sure, but Kaepernick did make those plays, and I’m sure there’s little regret in 49ers HQ about that decision.

And now we’ll see what happens in the negotiations between the 49ers and Kaepernick for a long-term deal…

But as this all flows, maybe Kaepernick can learn a lesson about the Manning pursuit two years ago: The 49ers will be searching to get better, to make that leap to Lombardi Trophy Land, and if they think they can upgrade any position–even QB–they’ll take a shot at it.

Plus, I believe the 49ers will draft a QB with one of their many picks… not as direct competition for Kaepernick, but just to have somebody they can groom and maybe count on if Kaepernick gets hurt… who is not Colt McCoy.

It’s the way the 49ers do business, especially at the QB position. It’s not about sentiment or satisfaction. It’s about chasing the Super Bowl.

* Epilogue: Remember, AFTER the Peyton drama in 2012, the 49ers even reportedly thought about trading Kaepernick for a 2nd-round pick during the 2012 draft but that, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, was nixed when the Eagles refused to give up the pick because they thought they could land Russell Wilson in a later round.

Turns out Seattle grabbed Wilson with a higher 3rd-rounder (75th overall)… and Philly had to settle for Nick Foles with the 88th pick.

That didn’t wind up too bad for any of these teams, eh? (Except the ones that didn’t take Wilson or Foles or have Kaepernick.)

In that draft…

-Cleveland took Brandon Wheeden 22nd overall.

-Seattle took Wilson 53 picks later.

-Philly took Foles 66 picks later.

 

[Yadahell]

* Epilogue: Remember, AFTER the Peyton drama in 2012, the 49ers even reportedly thought about trading Kaepernick for a 2nd-round pick during the 2012 draft but that, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, was nixed when the Eagles refused to give up the pick because they thought they could land Russell Wilson in a later round.

Turns out Seattle grabbed Wilson with a higher 3rd-rounder (75th overall)… and Philly had to settle for Nick Foles with the 88th pick.

That didn’t wind up too bad for any of these teams, eh? (Except the ones that didn’t take Wilson or Foles or have Kaepernick.)

In that draft…

-Cleveland took Brandon Wheeden 22nd overall.

-Seattle took Wilson 53 picks later.

-Philly took Foles 66 picks later.

Interesting article. I also found this last portion interesting- I wasn't aware that Philly was interested in getting Russell Wilson.

 

[sjballer03]

Interesting article. I also found this last portion interesting- I wasn't aware that Philly was interested in getting Russell Wilson.

It seems like that the trade not happening has benefited all three teams. Only time will tell us who the real winner was.

 

[NinerFan52]

It seems like that the trade not happening has benefited all three teams. Only time will tell us who the real winner was.

Pretty obvious it will be Cleveland...

 

[TobyTyler]

I'd low ball Kaepernick on his upcoming contract. He knows that he would struggle on a lesser talented team. He'll take less to stay so he can stay on this team and get other good players re-signed.

 

[Chamoanlad]

I'd low ball Kaepernick on his upcoming contract. He knows that he would struggle on a lesser talented team. He'll take less to stay so he can stay on this team and get other good players re-signed.

I don't think Kap should get Flacco money, but low balling him would be a bad idea too. He can just decline the deal and if he blows up in 2014 he could demand top QB money or hold out if we franchise him.

He probably would struggle more with a less talented team, but we have no talent at all at QB behind Kap so we have no leverage. We're picking in the bottom of the draft so we're not going to get any QB that's ready to play in 2014 and we can't afford to waste the prime seasons that our star guys have left.

I'd offer Kap something in the 12-14mill range and if he turns that down then let him know to go higher we need to see improvement in 2014 and can talk again at the end of 2014.

 

[MHSL82]

San Francisco 49ers Niner Insider Blog » Kaepernick's potential extension

Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick would like a nice pay raise, but he also wants to keep leading a title-contending team.

That was the gist of Kaepernick’s response today when asked about a possible contract extension this offseason. Kaepernick, whose base salary of $973,766 in the final year of his rookie contract in 2014 would qualify him as grossly underpaid, struck a team-oriented note when queried about his potential pay day.

“I think it’s a balance,” Kaepernick said on KNBR from Radio Row in New York. “You want to be paid fairly for what you feel like you’re doing in comparison to your peers. But at the same time you have to realize that if we want to get (wide receiver) Anqaun Boldin back, if we want (safety) Donte Whitner to come back, we’re going to have to make moves to get them back and there has to be room for everyone.

“That’s something I’m going to let my agent and the organization try to figure out, but hopefully it’s a position where we can assemble that we need.”

Boldin, Whitner, placekicker Phil Dawson, cornerback Tarell Brown and center Jonathan Goodwin are among the team’s 10 unrestricted free agents.

Based on Kaepernick’s comments, it sounds as if he’d be willing to accept a lesser deal than seven-year, $126.7 million extension Chicago’s Jay Cutler signed earlier this month. Of course, there’s no telling if Kaepernick’s representatives will have the same outlook when it comes to ensuring their client is properly compensated. Kaepernick suggested he’d stay on the sideline while the 49ers and his agents discussed a potential deal.

“To me, that’s not something I’m worried about,” Kaepernick said. “I’m going to let my agents worry about that. To me, I’m trying to focus on what I need to do next season and improve myself so I can help improve this offense and, ultimately, help win a Super Bowl.”

 

[TobyTyler]

I don't think Kap should get Flacco money, but low balling him would be a bad idea too. He can just decline the deal and if he blows up in 2014 he could demand top QB money or hold out if we franchise him.

He probably would struggle more with a less talented team, but we have no talent at all at QB behind Kap so we have no leverage. We're picking in the bottom of the draft so we're not going to get any QB that's ready to play in 2014 and we can't afford to waste the prime seasons that our star guys have left.

I'd offer Kap something in the 12-14mill range and if he turns that down then let him know to go higher we need to see improvement in 2014 and can talk again at the end of 2014.

He won't blow up. His decision making is too bad. He said this morning that his decision to throw the ball up for grabs to Crabtree was the correct one and he'd do it every time. That shows that he will never be great.

 

[MHSL82]

Field of Links: Kap pitches in, Niners/Giants tee it up with Sharks and Warriors | Field of Teams

Kaepernick is helping a group called Camp Taylor for children with heart issues. You can buy a tshirt of Kaepernick's to benefit the Camp.

 

[MHSL82]

What should the 49ers do with Colin Kaepernick this offseason? - ESPN

 

[badazzk9]

What should the 49ers do with Colin Kaepernick this offseason? - ESPN

Can you post this article? It sparked my interest in it.

 

[MHSL82]

Can you post this article? It sparked my interest in it.

I can't get my Insider to work, so someone else needs to help. Sorry about that, I usually post if I can.

 

[NinerSickness]

How much you wanna bet Kaepernick has already read that article, made anonymous comments in the comments section & skimmed over any part that said something negative about him?

 

[Hangman]

Colin Kaepernick is 21-8 in his career as a starter for the San Francisco 49ers.
Colin Kaepernick has a 21-8 record with four playoff victories and one Super Bowl appearance since becoming the San Francisco 49ers' starting quarterback during the 2012 season. Not everyone loves everything about his game, but it's tough finding quarterbacks with higher early trajectories.

To see just how tough it is, consider how Kaepernick's 29-start credentials stack up against those for all other QBs who made their first 29 starts over the past nine seasons. Kaepernick stands first in Total QBR, second in winning percentage and fourth in passer rating on a 25-man list featuring Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck.

With three seasons behind him, Kaepernick recently became eligible for a new contract with one year remaining on his four-year rookie deal. Everything we've learned about the importance of quarterbacks tells us the 49ers should seize the opportunity to extend Kaepernick's contract before the price climbs even higher. Otherwise, they risk the sort of trouble Baltimore ran into when Joe Flacco leveraged a contract-year Super Bowl run into a $120 million deal that will hamstring the organization for years and force the Ravens back to the bargaining table seeking relief. The 49ers could find themselves in a similar situation if Kaepernick leads them to a championship in his contract year next season -- no stretch for a player with memorable postseason performances on his résumé already.

So, yes, the bottom line is that, at the right price, the Niners would be wise to lock up Kaepernick this offseason. But after speaking Monday with three player agents, one NFL contract negotiator and a former general manager, I came away questioning conventional wisdom. Do the 49ers really need to pony up for their quarterback this offseason?

"I wonder if the landscape for quarterbacks in the NFL has forever changed with what Russell Wilson just did and what happened with Flacco," the agent for one of the NFL's more accomplished quarterbacks said. "Are you better off having young, inexpensive quarterbacks and trying to win with these guys?"

Not everyone would be better off, but there's a line of thinking in the NFL that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and Seahawks counterpart Pete Carroll have raised the coaching bar, and that Harbaugh in particular has proved his team can win with more than one type of quarterback. Look, if you can throw 55 touchdown passes the way Peyton Manning did this past season, go for it. But the teams paying $20 million a year for quarterbacks are cutting corners elsewhere. Six of the 10 highest-seeded teams in the recently concluded playoffs featured QBs playing on relatively affordable rookie deals. A seventh, Kansas City, advanced with starter Alex Smith earning less than $10 million a year.

Why would the 49ers want to join the ranks of teams paying a premium for quarterbacks if they can win with cheaper ones? Sure, Kaepernick has a 21-8 record in his past 29 starts, but his predecessor, Smith, has gone 20-8-1 in his past 29, including 10-2-1 with the 49ers. Smith has 49 total touchdowns with 12 interceptions in those 29 starts, compared with 48 and 16 for Kaepernick. Smith has a slightly higher passer rating, and Kaepernick comes out quite a bit higher in Total QBR thanks to his dynamic rushing ability. It'll be interesting to see what type of deal Smith gets this offseason; it won't be for $20 million a year.

MCT via Getty Images
Richard Sherman denied Kaepernick and the 49ers a shot at a second straight Super Bowl appearance.


If you're the 49ers, why not use one of your 11 choices in the 2014 draft on a quarterback? With additional picks in the second and third rounds, plus a likely compensatory selection for parting with safety Dashon Goldson, San Francisco certainly could stash away another young QB prospect. If Kaepernick lights up the league under his current deal, that's a good problem to have. Slap the franchise tag on him and see how he does in 2015, all while working toward a long-term deal. If Kaepernick plateaus, regresses or simply wants too much money, the team would have another low-cost option behind him and a coaching staff that has proved it can adapt as needed. Meanwhile, the 49ers would retain the financial flexibility to supplement their roster with an Anquan Boldin type as needed.

The contract negotiator and the former GM said they weren't sold on Kaepernick as irreplaceable in San Francisco. They also said they didn't think the 49ers were necessarily all-in on him, based on what they've heard and what they would be thinking if they were in the 49ers' position. This line of thinking says Kaepernick is a phenomenal athlete but not yet polished enough as a quarterback. The negotiator said that Kaepernick is too quick to rely on his athleticism and that, when his first options aren't there, Kaepernick too frequently tries to make a play at all costs. For the 49ers, those costs included three fourth-quarter turnovers in the NFC Championship Game while Wilson avoided late mistakes and averaged an additional 2.2 yards per pass attempt targeting less accomplished receivers.

Fatal flaws? Not necessarily. We could be picking nits in a dynamic young player's game. "Kaepernick was a little inconsistent in the first half of the season," one of the agents said. "I've always believed you're not a starting QB until you have a full offseason and everyone can game plan against you. He was that, and he struggled for a bit. Some of his guys were hurt. But he worked through it. He is sitting in a great spot."

Indeed, Kaepernick came within a spectacular Richard Sherman deflection of leading the 49ers to a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. And, after watching Seattle destroy Denver to win its first championship, it wasn't hard to envision another rugged NFC West team such as the 49ers beating the Broncos.

The price of poker

Let's say the 49ers want to get a deal done with Kaepernick this offseason. The question is at what price? The sources consulted for this column provided a general framework. They said Kaepernick should think as though he's staring at $20 million over the next two seasons. That figure counts his roughly $1 million salary in 2014 and the projected $19 million cost for the franchise tag a year later. The 49ers would be enticing Kaepernick into taking about $15 million a year by front-loading the deal enough to dwarf the $20 million he might otherwise expect to receive through 2015.

That type of deal would give Kaepernick, 26, the financial security all young players covet, plus a chance to reach free agency again by age 30, when he's still in his prime years. The 49ers would come away with a franchise quarterback under contract for less than the market rate, which ranges from $18 million (Cutler) to $22 million (Rodgers).

"If you get to the $15 million range, you know you are taking care of him and you can make a big deal in the press saying Kaepernick could have held out for more, but, like Tom Brady, he wants to help his team," one of the agents said. "Instead of $20 million over the next two years, he gets $35 million guaranteed. Call it four years and $50 million, with $38 million in the next 12 months if they can eat up that kind of cap space early."

The former GM said he'd do a three-year deal for $40 million, with $30 million guaranteed. But he said he suspected a young and talented player such as Kaepernick would rather bet big on himself in 2014 than settle for a compromise deal. "He completes that pass against Seattle, they steamroll Denver and he is the MVP of the Super Bowl and they're talking Flacco money right now," he said. "If I'm him, that is what I'm thinking."

Of course, Flacco knew the Ravens could not realistically afford to use the franchise tag on him. The 49ers could use the tag on Kaepernick, although not without discomfort. "If I were his agent, I'd say he is only going to get more expensive as we go on," one of the agents said. "The fly in the ointment is that he had three turnovers in the fourth quarter of the last game he played. I'd speculate that nothing will get done this offseason."

The contract negotiator said he thought Kaepernick would have no reason to walk away from a two-year extension worth $45 million over the next three years, counting 2014. He thought the 49ers would be amenable to such a deal unless they thought they could win without paying big money for a quarterback. The negotiator noted that San Francisco has already reached extensions with most of its top players. Aldon Smith, Donte Whitner, Michael Crabtree and Mike Iupati could be in line for deals, but the 49ers can afford to be selective in some of those cases.

One of the agents said he thought 49ers president Paraag Marathe would slow-play negotiations in the short term. "The more I'm thinking about it, I think Paraag will try to get him at $15 million, dangle it all offseason, and Colin Kaepernick will get into the offseason drills and think, 'Should I play for $1 million now and kill it in 2014, or take the $14 million to $15 million a year as long as it's front-loaded?' That is the give and take."

What makes sense

Some NFL teams pay more for the position than for the specific QB. I thought that was the case with Cutler and the Bears, to some extent. Some teams pay for past production (see the New York Jets and Brett Favre a few years back), and others pay for potential. The Arizona Cardinals and Kevin Kolb come to mind, along with every team that used an early draft choice on a quarterback under the old labor agreement.

 

[Hangman]

Paying big for any one of those traits in the absence of the others carries heightened risk. The 49ers are in position to pay for all three. Kaepernick plays the NFL's most important position and has produced at a high level, including in the playoffs. He has the potential to improve with seasoning.

The opportunity is right for the 49ers to secure their quarterback at a rate that only figures to increase. They certainly should draft a QB, regardless, because it always makes sense to invest in the position. But if they can sign Kaepernick to the type of deal outlined above -- say, three years and $45 million -- everyone can come out a winner while minimizing risks.

 

[maniax]

Out of the 3 QBs right now: Kaep, Alex Smith, or Peyton. I would choose Kaep. After watching the recent playoffs to me it's a no brainer.

We are built to win the Superbowl now. We got so close the past 3 years.

So I think the logical thing to do is keep Kaep one more year on the cheap contract, and stack the team as much as possible. Bring back Boldin, get a reasonably priced free agent or two, etc.

I want as much cap money next year as possible to stack the team.


Then at the end of the 2014 season, we will probably have to part ways with some key older players to make room for Kaep's big salary. Hopefully at that time we'll have talent ready to step up with the shitload of draft picks we had in 2013 and 2014.

 

[MHSL82]

So I think the logical thing to do is keep Kaep one more year on the cheap contract, and stack the team as much as possible. Bring back Boldin, get a reasonably priced free agent or two, etc.

I want as much cap money next year as possible to stack the team.


Then at the end of the 2014 season, we will probably have to part ways with some key older players to make room for Kaep's big salary. Hopefully at that time we'll have talent ready to step up with the shitload of draft picks we had in 2013 and 2014.

What do you think would happen if we signed everyone else that we needed to the minimum we could but still within market value and came to Kaepernick to sign next year. Do you think he'd give a hometown discount, realize our talent versus the rest (chances of winning higher), or do you think he'd bolt? Move away from Harbaugh? (No, I am not saying that Kaepernick is all because of Harbaugh, but Harbaugh helps.)

 

[MHSL82]

Posted from TobyTyler, but reposting to add here.

How much is Colin Kaepernick actually worth to the 49ers? | FOX Sports on MSN

 

[MHSL82]

One guy said he should be paid between 62 and 126 million. LOL at the big range, no kidding, eh? Just kidding, he acknowledged the big range and said they should take the Vick deal and up it for his postseason success with the team. So between 100 and 126 million is his suggestion? (I'm assuming 5-7 years.)