The Niners QB Situation (Past, Present, and Future)

[MHSL82]

Our former and current QBs only showed up once on this list, good or bad, misleading or whatnot, but I saw it and thought it fit here better than a new thread.

Signature Stats: Accuracy Breakdown

 

[MHSL82]

Here is what they consider Signature Stats: Signature Stats.

 

[Badger8843]

I don't think Kap should get Flacco money, but low balling him would be a bad idea too. He can just decline the deal and if he blows up in 2014 he could demand top QB money or hold out if we franchise him.

He probably would struggle more with a less talented team, but we have no talent at all at QB behind Kap so we have no leverage. We're picking in the bottom of the draft so we're not going to get any QB that's ready to play in 2014 and we can't afford to waste the prime seasons that our star guys have left.

I'd offer Kap something in the 12-14mill range and if he turns that down then let him know to go higher we need to see improvement in 2014 and can talk again at the end of 2014.

Flacco got way to much $ but I would take Kap over Flacco anyday

 

[TobyTyler]

Out of the 3 QBs right now: Kaep, Alex Smith, or Peyton. I would choose Kaep. After watching the recent playoffs to me it's a no brainer.

We are built to win the Superbowl now. We got so close the past 3 years.

So I think the logical thing to do is keep Kaep one more year on the cheap contract, and stack the team as much as possible. Bring back Boldin, get a reasonably priced free agent or two, etc.

I want as much cap money next year as possible to stack the team.


Then at the end of the 2014 season, we will probably have to part ways with some key older players to make room for Kaep's big salary. Hopefully at that time we'll have talent ready to step up with the shitload of draft picks we had in 2013 and 2014.

LOL! But I agree, you would have to have "no brain" to make that choice.

 

[49er4life1979]

I'd low ball Kaepernick on his upcoming contract. He knows that he would struggle on a lesser talented team. He'll take less to stay so he can stay on this team and get other good players re-signed.

I have to agree with you. I can see Niners offering him a 3 year deal for say 36 million, 20 million guaranteed. I mean he hasn't quite yet proven himself all the way right? His progressions and footwork still need work. So this way, Kap at least gets some short term security and can become a free agent again in 2018 when he will be 30 or 31. QBs these days don't usually hit their prime anyway until they are in that 28-32 year old age range...So I can see a low ball, prove yourself offer with some short term security offered.

 

[MHSL82]

I was looking at passer rating to see an effect of a dropped/incomplete pass.

For a QB who passes as few times as Kaepernick does, each dropped pass or incomplete drops a QB's rating for the season, nearly 0.2 rating points (0.19) and that's not including the yards lost!

If you assumed that each drop was the average yards through the air (4.32), it's 0.244 for each incompletion. For comparison, in 2012, Alex Smith's yards through the air was 4.24.

If you assumed that each drop/incompletion was the yards per attempt (7.69), it's 0.277.

No big deal? This chart says there were 19 dropped balls last season. That would lead to a 96.9 rating (8th) if none were dropped, according to YPA or 96.2 (9th) if we went by yards through the air (assuming a catch and tackle). He ended up 10th anyway.

I know: ifs, buts, whatifs. All QBs have dropped passes. 4.56% of passes being dropped would only up his completion percentage to 63%. I don't know what the average percentage of drops per QB is.

 

[badazzk9]

I was looking at passer rating to see an effect of a dropped/incomplete pass.

For a QB who passes as few times as Kaepernick does, each dropped pass or incomplete drops a QB's rating for the season, nearly 0.2 rating points (0.19) and that's not including the yards lost!

If you assumed that each drop was the average yards through the air (4.32), it's 0.244 for each incompletion. For comparison, in 2012, Alex Smith's yards through the air was 4.24.

If you assumed that each drop/incompletion was the yards per attempt (7.69), it's 0.277.

No big deal? This chart says there were 19 dropped balls last season. That would lead to a 96.9 rating (8th) if none were dropped, according to YPA or 96.2 (9th) if we went by yards through the air (assuming a catch and tackle). He ended up 10th anyway.

I know: ifs, buts, whatifs. All QBs have dropped passes. 4.56% of passes being dropped would only up his completion percentage to 63%. I don't know what the average percentage of drops per QB is.

I looked at this and the 9ers were middle of the road on drops compared to other teams. Here is the team link.., Team Dropped Passes - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics

 

[4lifer9er]

I have to agree with you. I can see Niners offering him a 3 year deal for say 36 million, 20 million guaranteed. I mean he hasn't quite yet proven himself all the way right? His progressions and footwork still need work. So this way, Kap at least gets some short term security and can become a free agent again in 2018 when he will be 30 or 31. QBs these days don't usually hit their prime anyway until they are in that 28-32 year old age range...So I can see a low ball, prove yourself offer with some short term security offered.

I actually really like that potential contract..

 

[MHSL82]

I looked at this and the 9ers were middle of the road on drops compared to other teams. Here is the team link.., Team Dropped Passes - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics

Thanks.

 

[MHSL82]

Kaepernick is Top Ten in 3rd and 9+ situations.

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm guessing Alex Smith is #1 because a near-100% completion percentage to the running back for a 5 yard gain on 3rd & 9 makes for a pretty good passer rating.

 

[MHSL82]

I'm guessing Alex Smith is #1 because a near-100% completion percentage to the running back for a 5 yard gain on 3rd & 9 makes for a pretty good passer rating.

Ha, that's better than a near 60%. Just kidding. Seriously speaking though, I saw more deeper attempts and completions under Reidd that I did with him under Harbaugh.

 

[MHSL82]

I meant higher frequency rate, too, not just total.

 

[purguy12]

The great Joe Montana said he would put Kap as one of the top QB's in the league. Cant argue with the great one.

 

[MHSL82]

The great Joe Montana said he would put Kap as one of the top QB's in the league. Cant argue with the great one.

Link? Not because I don't believe you or think he isn't, but rather because I'd like to read what else he said. When was it said?

 

[MHSL82]

This is what I mean: Kansas City Chiefs Mailbag: Alex Smith - Arrowhead Pride

It was not. Smith's season can be pretty neatly divided up to "before the bye week" and "after the bye week" (deep stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus)

Before the bye week (nine games)

18 attempts 20+ yards in the air, or two per game

52 attempts 10+ yards in the air, or 5.8 per game

Four TDs on passes 10+ yards in the air, or .44 per game

After the bye week (seven games)

27 attempts 20+ yards in the air, or 3.86 per game

48 attempts 10+ yards in the air, or 6.86 per game

Seven TDs on passes 10+ yards in the air, or one per game

Those are some very, very, very different stats. The first set (Smith before the bye) would represent the lowest number of "deep" passes (20+ yards in the air) attempted per game of ... literally anyone in the league last year. Lower than Christian Ponder. Lower than Matt Cassel. Lower than Sam Bradford!

The second set of numbers is completely different. At 3.86 "deep" attempts per game, Smith was ahead of Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, and other guys known for slinging the ball deep.

So Smith was much more aggressive pushing the ball down the field the second half of the year. Does that mean his interceptions rose? Well, no. His interception rate stayed very steady, actually improving slightly from one INT every 78.75 passes to one INT every 79.67 passes. So Smith was challenging defenses vertically almost twice as often while maintaining his low number of interceptions. That's good news.

The standard rebuttal to this information is "Well, we were losing, so of course Smith was more aggressive." That's only kinda / sorta true. The Chiefs were winning for most of the game against Denver (second game), San Diego, Washington, Oakland, and Indianapolis (second game). The only games the Chiefs were playing catchup were the first Denver game and the first Colts game. So it's not as though Smith was recklessly trying to come back from insurmountable leads to get garbage stats.

It seems like in situations where Smith was aggressive, good things happened for the Chiefs.

One can call Smith a game manager all they want, but when the team needed yards he stepped up in a big way. That indicates he can handle the load of being a playmaking quarterback. And if you think leading the league in that category is a matter of luck, look at the rest of those names in the top seven. It's not luck (well, except when it's Luck).

On a final note with all this, the tape (which is ALWAYS where you and I should go to figure stuff out) confirms what stats indicate: Smith was a whole lot more aggressive after the bye week. He still displayed a maddening tendency to tuck and run too quickly, but three things were different:

1) Smith was actively looking to throw the ball deep.

2) Smith was keeping his eyes down the field longer (still not as long as I'd like, for the record).

3) Smith was no longer overthrowing the deep ball the way he had been earlier in the year.

He goes on to say Smith isn't great and he doesn't know how far that the Chiefs could go with him. He even thinks that getting a quarterback in the draft would be fine. So he is not saying Smith is great.

 

[MHSL82]

San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh expects breakout season from quarterback Colin Kaepernick - ESPN

Colin Kaepernick already has a fairly stout NFL resume. But the way 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh sees it, the fourth-year quarterback is just getting started.

"I really expect that real breakout year for Colin," Harbaugh said after the team's second OTA session Wednesday. "He just has the look and feel that he's going to break out, more so than he already has. I'm really excited about everything about his game right now."

Kaepernick, a second-round draft choice out of Nevada in 2011, has taken San Francisco to back-to-back NFC title games and to its first Super Bowl since the 1994 season. This past season, the 49ers lost on the road to division rival and eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle.

To Harbaugh, however, Kaepernick's maturation in the 49ers' offense and the additions of receivers Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd spell bigger and better things to come.

"I feel like we have a lot of firepower in our corner," Harbaugh said. "I feel like we have a lot of ammunition in our camp. I was just thinking about it the other day, 'It doesn't get better than this.'"
Last season, Kaepernick started every game for the first time as a pro and passed for 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also rushed for 524 yards and four scores.

Where Harbaugh feels Kaepernick has "a stable of receivers ... for the first time ... since we've all been here together," the quarterback is taking a wait-and-see approach. At least for now.

"This is the time of the year where you can be vocal and you can work on things a lot more because you don't have to play Sunday," he said. "So if you want to experiment with things, if you want to try things out, now is the time to see if we can get something new that is going to work for our offense."

As the quarterback prepares to enter the final season of his rookie contract, Harbaugh remains hopeful the team will sign him to a long-term deal.

To Kaepernick, good things will come to those who wait.

"I'm letting my agents handle all of that," he said of the ongoing negotiations. "I'm out here trying to get better with my teammates. I'm playing football regardless."

 

[Badger8843]

To the Kap haters, love reading that last line "I'm letting my agents handle all of that," he said of the ongoing negotiations. "I'm out here trying to get better with my teammates. I'm playing football regardless."
We got some choosing to sit out and their making millions and we got our starting QB who is going to be our franchise QB making under a million this year and saying this. This guy is going to be a monster this year.

 

[deep9er]

To the Kap haters, love reading that last line "I'm letting my agents handle all of that," he said of the ongoing negotiations. "I'm out here trying to get better with my teammates. I'm playing football regardless."
We got some choosing to sit out and their making millions and we got our starting QB who is going to be our franchise QB making under a million this year and saying this. This guy is going to be a monster this year.

there are Kaep haters?

i'm one who expressed concern about his passing abilities, but certainly don't hate him. already posted if push comes to shove, I'd pay Kaep the $18M/year, over 5 years.

 

[Badger8843]

Umm yea I would also pay him $18 mil a year, did you see what Alex Smith wants from the chiefs? He also wants $18 mil per year, and the chiefs have said they are willing to do $15. If Smith is worth $15mil per year then Kap needs to get his $18