The Niners QB Situation (Past, Present, and Future)

[MHSL82]

Umm yea I would also pay him $18 mil a year, did you see what Alex Smith wants from the chiefs? He also wants $18 mil per year, and the chiefs have said they are willing to do $15. If Smith is worth $15mil per year then Kap needs to get his $18

I think Smith wants a higher guarantee do his agent is asking for more than he wants and will eventually compromise. It's too easy to move on with the rookie scale. There really isn't the risk you had before. Ith played well and was winning and was replaced - that's fine, but he was at the mercy of us trading him and doing so to a good fit for him.

He likely wants to start or be released - a big number would guarantee that. We were able to claim CK's 1.5 and AS's 8 were a reasonable QB cost (8.5) - we couldn't have if Smith were slated for 15. 15 would make teams know we had to release him, not just that it was best to trade or release him. He does not want to be at KC's mercy and if he is, he'd likely want someone serious enough to pick up a bigger contract.

There has been talk about not being a middle teir for QBs in price. You either are paid 18+ (old deals of 15M are the old before inflation version of the 18M standard) or you are a rookie scaled QB. Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Kaepernick, and maybe Sam Bradford are next up on getting deals. None of them are getting Manning/Flacco money. All of them would rather play it out than getting near rookie pay. Too expendable and they have proven some.

Someone has to sign first and everyone else will ask for more. I think Kaepernick deserves it most and to be paid most, but he won't go first if he cares about relative pay. If these other three QBs play it out this year, CK might, too - partly in hopes of getting to Flacco money (but more sustainable)

 

[Badger8843]

I think Trent will do everything he can do get this deal done really soon

 

[MHSL82]

Andrew Luck: The NFL's Best Running Quarterback | The MMQB with Peter King

Excerpts:

The conclusions: Newton, Wilson and Kaepernick are insanely talented athletes, Griffin was not himself last year and Luck is a comparable athlete to all of them and an overwhelmingly better quarterback.

Kaepernick was clearly the most dangerous scrambler in terms of speed and agility, though only 9 of his 22 third-down scrambles were successful.

Kaepernick does not read the defense before the snap. You can tell because he shows no understanding of this basic quarterbacking concept: When one receiver is covered, it often means another receiver is not. There’s no awareness of route combinations.

 

[Badger8843]

Ha and he also only had 1 good WR last year. Andrew Luck is the most overrated QB in the league. This guy has been one of the worst in league in TO's since he has arrived but because he will throw for 400 yards and a couple Td's people forget his 27 Int's in only 2 seasons, no thanks. Kap has 11-Int's in almost 2 seasons. Not to mention Luck has been in the playoffs both years and is 1-2, his Td-Int ratio in the playoffs is 6Td's-8Int's, I cant scream overrated lough enough

 

[dredinis21]

Ha and he also only had 1 good WR last year. Andrew Luck is the most overrated QB in the league. This guy has been one of the worst in league in TO's since he has arrived but because he will throw for 400 yards and a couple Td's people forget his 27 Int's in only 2 seasons, no thanks. Kap has 11-Int's in almost 2 seasons. Not to mention Luck has been in the playoffs both years and is 1-2, his Td-Int ratio in the playoffs is 6Td's-8Int's, I cant scream overrated lough enough

Badger, this is a stupid argument. Luck was the 1st overall pick, which means that his team sucked balls before he got there. So to compare the Niners and Colts teams as if they were equals in the talent department is so narrow minded and silly. Kap has 11 Int, but he also throws it less then ANYONE in the league. To compare the Ints as if they were on equal ground is stupid as well considering that Luck throws the ball FAR more then Kap.

Luck: 570 pass attempts in 2013, 9 INT

Kap: 418 pass attempts in 2013, 8 INT

Considering your bogus argument, I can't scream WRONG loud enough.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Not to mention Kap has been able to rely on one of the better defenses and running games in the league. And plays behind one of the better OLs. A simple comparison of INTs doesn't give a fair picture of where these guys are relative to one another.

 

[DoobieKeebler]

I know it doesn't matter, but Kaepernick has better stats than Luck over the last 2 years when you put them on a level playing field, pass attempt wise. Whether you inflate Colin's numbers or deflate Luck's, Luck's only superior stat is fewer sacks taken.

 

[MHSL82]

I know it doesn't matter, but Kaepernick has better stats than Luck over the last 2 years when you put them on a level playing field, pass attempt wise. Whether you inflate Colin's numbers or deflate Luck's, Luck's only superior stat is fewer sacks taken.

Now, that's a player comparison I'd rather see than what we usually see with Kaepernick. I don't mind people putting down Luck, but dislike it when people put down someone almost everyone, if not everyone, already agrees Kaepernick is better than.

 

[NinerSickness]

I don't mind people putting down Luck, but dislike it when people put down someone almost everyone, if not everyone, already agrees Kaepernick is better than.

I'm not following you.

You don't mind putting down Luck... but you dislike it when people put down whom?

And you're saying Kap > Luck?

 

[MHSL82]

I'm not following you.

You don't mind putting down Luck... but you dislike it when people put down whom?

And you're saying Kap > Luck?

Nope, not saying anything about Luck re: Kaepernick.

Everyone says Kaepernick is better than Smith, so much of a consensus that I dislike when some go out of their way to put him down, when there's no one claiming otherwise. Now, Luck.on the other hand is a newer less talked about comparison. While the media makes it seem like there's a consensus, I'm okay with comparing Kaepernick to Luck because Kaepernick is our quarterback and I don't feel like people are really putting down Luck. There is so much hyperbole about Luck that I'm okay with some pushback.

 

[Badger8843]

Badger, this is a stupid argument. Luck was the 1st overall pick, which means that his team sucked balls before he got there. So to compare the Niners and Colts teams as if they were equals in the talent department is so narrow minded and silly. Kap has 11 Int, but he also throws it less then ANYONE in the league. To compare the Ints as if they were on equal ground is stupid as well considering that Luck throws the ball FAR more then Kap.

Luck: 570 pass attempts in 2013, 9 INT

Kap: 418 pass attempts in 2013, 8 INT

Considering your bogus argument, I can't scream WRONG loud enough.

Since Kap took over the starting job he has been 3rd in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of Luck. He has more Td's and a lot less turnovers, not to mention took the 49ers to a SB and 1 play away from back 2 back SB appearances. Sorry but Luck is overrated, too many turnovers. So if someone has better stats then we shouldn't give them credit because they have a good defense? So the other guy gets a hall-pass to commit more mistakes and a lot less playoff wins because his defense isn't good?

 

[whysies]

Since Kap took over the starting job he has been 3rd in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of Luck. He has more Td's and a lot less turnovers, not to mention took the 49ers to a SB and 1 play away from back 2 back SB appearances. Sorry but Luck is overrated, too many turnovers. So if someone has better stats then we shouldn't give them credit because they have a good defense? So the other guy gets a hall-pass to commit more mistakes and a lot less playoff wins because his defense isn't good?

It's a team game, you knucklehead

 

[Badger8843]

No shit, Luck is still overrated, team game or not

 

[NinerSickness]

No shit, Luck is still overrated, team game or not

I couldn't disagree with this more. The Colts have been an EXTREMELY shitty team at non-QB positions the last 2 years for the most part. They had no business even being in the playoffs last year. But before they had 7 offensive starters gone & 19 players on IR, the Colts were playing better than anyone else in the NFL. Guess who beat both Seattle & SF last year?

Luck is still underrated. He's never had the gluttony of talent around him to make him look better like Kaepernick and Matt Ryan have had. And even when he did have a little talent, half of 'em got injured. His OL has been atrocious in particular.

Luck has had to put the team on his back. Look how much the Colts were forced to pass last year because their piss-poor defense wouldn't help 'em out. Of course there are going to be a lot of turnovers when you have no running game, your D sucks and everyone knows you're going to pass all day.

 

[DoobieKeebler]

Comparing the combined totals of Colin Kaepernick and Andrew Luck over the past 2 years:

Kaepernick / Luck

Gms: 29 / 32
Atts: 634 / 1197
Comp: 379 / 682
Cmp%: 59.8 / 57.0
Yrds: 5011 / 8196
TDs: 31 / 46
INTs: 11 / 27
Sack: 55 / 73
RAtt: 155 / 125
RYds: 939 / 632
RTDs: 9 / 9
YPA: 6.06 / 5.1


Numbers when Colin's pass attempts are multiplied to match Luck's:

Kaepernick / Luck
Atts: 1197 / 1197
Comp: 716 / 682
Yrds: 9461 / 8196
TDs: 58 / 46
INTs: 21 / 27
Sack: 103 / 73



Numbers when Luck's pass attempts are lowered to match Colin's

Kaepernick / Luck
Atts: 634 / 634
Comp: 379 / 361
Yrds: 5011 / 4341
TDs: 31 / 24
INTs: 11 / 14
Sack: 55 / 39


I know it doesn't mean jack shit in the real world, but I think this goes to show that while Kaepernick averages more sacks per drop back than Luck, which is a pretty bad problem because Colin has one of the best OLs in the league, Colin accomplishes more per pass attempt than Luck does.

 

[MHSL82]

San Francisco 49ers bringing in quarterback guru George Whitfield - ESPN

 

[whysies]

Comparing the combined totals of Colin Kaepernick and Andrew Luck over the past 2 years:

Kaepernick / Luck

Gms: 29 / 32
Atts: 634 / 1197
Comp: 379 / 682
Cmp%: 59.8 / 57.0
Yrds: 5011 / 8196
TDs: 31 / 46
INTs: 11 / 27
Sack: 55 / 73
RAtt: 155 / 125
RYds: 939 / 632
RTDs: 9 / 9
YPA: 6.06 / 5.1


Numbers when Colin's pass attempts are multiplied to match Luck's:

Kaepernick / Luck
Atts: 1197 / 1197
Comp: 716 / 682
Yrds: 9461 / 8196
TDs: 58 / 46
INTs: 21 / 27
Sack: 103 / 73



Numbers when Luck's pass attempts are lowered to match Colin's

Kaepernick / Luck
Atts: 634 / 634
Comp: 379 / 361
Yrds: 5011 / 4341
TDs: 31 / 24
INTs: 11 / 14
Sack: 55 / 39


I know it doesn't mean jack shit in the real world, but I think this goes to show that while Kaepernick averages more sacks per drop back than Luck, which is a pretty bad problem because Colin has one of the best OLs in the league, Colin accomplishes more per pass attempt than Luck does.

Manipulating the stats like this is weird and silly, IMO.

Why not just compare them based on how well they play Quarterback position? By that metric (and the doing more with much, much less metric), Luck is clearly the better QB.

 

[MHSL82]

QBs in Focus: Colin Kaepernick