tOfficial Thread The NFL Draft.............

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

I think Mazi Smith goes top 35. Steelers, Cowboys. Maybe Chiefs

I'll agree that draft grades are a bit dumb. The reality is that probably only about 30% of picks pan out so you can't grade things that have such a low hit rate

Mazi Smith is a great prospect. Honestly I love the guy as a DT. Probably third on my list. Youtube produced a lot of tape on him -- probably more than any other DT besides Carter and Kancey. I think he easily goes Top 50. The gun charge -- lacking a permit -- might be the only thing which could hurt his stock.

Draft grades are extremely dumb within the first couple of seasons. You actually want to see if they actual produce in the NFL. For example, the Jets probably gave themselves a high five for drafting Zach Wilson. Now he's a headache after two seasons and the Jets are looking for a new quarterback.

 

[Clayton]

Mazi Smith is a great prospect. Honestly I love the guy as a DT. Probably third on my list. Youtube produced a lot of tape on him -- probably more than any other DT besides Carter and Kancey. I think he easily goes Top 50. The gun charge -- lacking a permit -- might be the only thing which could hurt his stock.

Kancey is definitely one of the tougher prospects in the draft to evaluate. Carter, Bresee, and Mazi Smith are probably going to have scheme versatility. Guys who play the run and pass. Maybe Mazi Smith is stuck at Nose or 1tech but he is a freakish enough athlete that he can rush from that point. Bresee and Mazi Smith both probably have some development to go, too. Carter not so much. Kancey not so much.

Kancey is way more boom or bust than the other players. He is undersized which means he can't take on double teams, can't play against OTs, and at best he'll be below average against the run and more likely he'll be a total liability. He might be the best pass rusher in the class at any position, though. So Kancey needs to go to a team that already has a run stuffing monster on it.

 

[seattlefan75]

Lets not forget that statistically on average 25 guys drafted in the 1st round will be busts.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Which one...................

The one who dominated in college

Or

The one who showed up so overweight he could not do position drills at his pro day

He has bust written all over him.

 

[ducky]

Lets not forget that statistically on average 25 guys drafted in the 1st round will be busts.

That is absolutely not true. Where are you pulling that number from?

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

That is absolutely not true. Where are you pulling that number from?

I was gonna say the same thing. I don't have any stats in front of me, but I find it hard to believe that many 1st rounders end up as busts.

 

[PDay8810]

Lets not forget that statistically on average 25 guys drafted in the 1st round will be busts.

Then trade out for a second round pick

 

[redseat]

One week out. Who's getting Excited

For Belichick to trade his 1st round 14th pick for a 5th and 6th rounder to draft a kicker and punter!!!!

 

[seattlefan75]

We would have to have a conversation of what a "bust" is but to me when drafting in the 1st round I feel like that player should be quality enough to make it to their third contract with a couple of pro bowl selections in the resume all with the same team. If the team doesnt resign you after your rookie contract and you are playing back up or role playing on other teams on cheap 1-2 year deals in my opinion that is a bust.

Other than the 2018 draft that was loaded im looking at these draft classes I would say on average 7-8 out of 32 fit my personal opinion of a solid 1st round pick.


Pat McAfee NFL Busts (Skip 12:30)

 

[ducky]

We would have to have a conversation of what a "bust" is but to me when drafting in the 1st round I feel like that player should be quality enough to make it to their third contract with a couple of pro bowl selections in the resume all with the same team. If the team doesnt resign you after your rookie contract and you are playing back up or role playing on other teams on cheap 1-2 year deals in my opinion that is a bust.

Other than the 2018 draft that was loaded im looking at these draft classes I would say on average 7-8 out of 32 fit my personal opinion of a solid 1st round pick.


Pat McAfee NFL Busts (Skip 12:30)

So because they didnt sign 2nd contracts with their drafting team, Roquan Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Bradly Chubb are draft busts?!? You obviously can see the flaw in your own argument right?

That isnt a draft bust. That is a free agency mistake. They successfully picked a good player in the draft. When you are drafting, you arent thinking 4-5 years down the road if I can afford to pay him his 2nd contract or not.

 

[Clayton]

We would have to have a conversation of what a "bust" is but to me when drafting in the 1st round I feel like that player should be quality enough to make it to their third contract with a couple of pro bowl selections in the resume all with the same team. If the team doesnt resign you after your rookie contract and you are playing back up or role playing on other teams on cheap 1-2 year deals in my opinion that is a bust.

Other than the 2018 draft that was loaded im looking at these draft classes I would say on average 7-8 out of 32 fit my personal opinion of a solid 1st round pick.


Pat McAfee NFL Busts (Skip 12:30)

I'm glad you clarified that so I didn't have to go back through the past few drafts and sort it out.

Thats a really high bar and you're probably right that you're only seeing 7-8 players hitting the multiple pro bowler, franchise cornerstone bar in the first round.

Id say there are probably only about 7-8 full-on busts every round. The other 16 or so players in between are solid.

DeVonta Smith, for example, probably isn't in your 'not bust' category but he certainly isnt a bust, either. Clyde Edwards Helaire is a bit of a bust on the Chiefs but he has also scored 18 TDs in his career. Noah Fant was a bit of a bust on the Broncos but they were able to get value from him by trading him to the Seahawks for what they thought would be a franchise QB.

 

[shopson67]

That is absolutely not true. Where are you pulling that number from?

 

[shopson67]

For Belichick to trade his 1st round 14th pick for a 5th and 6th rounder to draft a kicker and punter!!!!

Nah, he'll take the 8th ranked TE at #14

 

[redseat]

Nah, he'll take the 8th ranked TE at #14

Naw I am confident in the trade. Though if it's a TE it would be from a DIII university who is coming off ACL surgery

 

[Moab]

I'm glad you clarified that so I didn't have to go back through the past few drafts and sort it out.

Thats a really high bar and you're probably right that you're only seeing 7-8 players hitting the multiple pro bowler, franchise cornerstone bar in the first round.

Id say there are probably only about 7-8 full-on busts every round. The other 16 or so players in between are solid.

DeVonta Smith, for example, probably isn't in your 'not bust' category but he certainly isnt a bust, either. Clyde Edwards Helaire is a bit of a bust on the Chiefs but he has also scored 18 TDs in his career. Noah Fant was a bit of a bust on the Broncos but they were able to get value from him by trading him to the Seahawks for what they thought would be a franchise QB.

I'd say that bar is probably stupid. In fact I'd guess, and it's totally a guess that there isn't a team in the NFL that has hit that bar on 1/2 their selections in the last 10 years. I'm not looking it up either

 

[shopson67]

Naw I am confident in the trade. Though if it's a TE it would be from a DIII university who is coming off ACL surgery

In all fairness, this first round should offer real options for Bill to not stick out with a reach.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

Updated Vegas odds: Levis is favored to go #2. Wow, what a turn of events. At first, people thought (not me) that Stroud was going #1. Now he's looking at least #3 and might fall as far as the middle of the first round. That S2 test and interviewing might have spooked NFL teams too much.

 

[Clayton]

I'd say that bar is probably stupid. In fact I'd guess, and it's totally a guess that there isn't a team in the NFL that has hit that bar on 1/2 their selections in the last 10 years. I'm not looking it up either

The logistics of getting pro bowlers on half of your first rounders is a bit tricky because that probably means you have a really good team and you wont be picking in the top 15 which is where you often see a higher hit rate on pro bowl upside. You'd also have teams finding more value in having a starting Left Tackle than a pro bowl Guard. I suspect there aren't any teams at 50%

 

[Ickey Shuffle]

For each team who need a QB actually, seriously, passing on CJ Shroud, just point and laugh at them and congratulate them for setting their franchise back at least a couple years.

 

[ducky]

For each team who need a QB actually, seriously, passing on CJ Shroud, just point and laugh at them and congratulate them for setting their franchise back at least a couple years.

You make him sound like even more of a mystery than he already is.