The Defense

[Crimsoncrew]

I've been thinking about this lately. I really think the D has a good chance of improving a fair bit this season, injuries permitting (we were remarkably healthy last year, obviously).

It struck me that of the 13 "starting" players (I'm looking at 11 starters plus Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver), six of them were first-time starters. There is strong reason to believe that McDonald, Brooks, Bowman, A. Smith, Brown, and Culliver are really only scratching the surface of their ability. Now, J. Smith is bound to start declining in the not-too-distant future, but I don't see it happening yet. In the meantime, there is a lot to be excited about on that side of the ball.

 

[FourBeeDen]

It would be hard to duplicate or surpass what the Niners' D did last year, plus 28 TO ratio, 77 rushing yrds per game, 14 consecutive games without a Rushing TD, 14.3 pts per game. So most likely, improving will not necessary get reflected stat wise

 

[Bemular]

The only way I see us improving over last year is maintaining our run defense, which will be extremely difficult and improving our passing yards allowed. I see our defense creating as many TO's as we did in '11, but I also see our offense creating more TO's and thus our +28 is not likely to be repeated as well. However, our expected higher output offense will make up for the difference.

 

[Jikkle]

Largely going to depend on how healthy they can stay and also partly on what our offense does.

If our offense improves by holding on to the ball longer and scoring more than naturally that will help the defense out. Just ask the 2010 Packers' defense how much having an offense that puts up serious points helps you defensively.

I do tend to agree that the defense could be even more dominant than it was last season but moreso in the secondary. Rodgers should stay the same but Culliver will definitely improve and Brown will likely will as well. And don't forget Cox who I think will wind up being really productive if he keeps out of trouble.

The defense will still be dominant one way or another so it's not a major concern to me even if they slide a little bit.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

I was actually thinking about the overall defense this morning going into next year out of the blue. The one area that will be extremely difficult to replicate is the health of the defense. I just don't see us getting that lucky again this year.

Depth is decent on the defensive side of the ball, although we really pushed towards offense in the draft with the first three picks (1st, 2nd, 4th), and already lost one OLB late round backup.

Defensive line doesn't actually concern me so much because I think we'll get contributions from Dobbs this year, and RJF should be able to fill in adequately. But J. Smith being hurt would allow offenses to breathe. And the drop-off would be noticed for the other two positions as well. Grant is solid at MLB backup so we should be covered there.

So here is where things could potentially trip us up: 1. Can Aldon stand up effectively? We could see some Sophmore slump growing pains here with Aldon. Cam Johnson could be great as a role player, but he dropped in the draft for the risk of not being able to play full time. Overall I think we'll be okay and can work around things here as long as Aldon can stay healthy.

2. CB - overall this is a solid unit. But can Rogers put together another great season? Can Brown continue high level of play or does he fall back? For depth I think we'll get good a contribution from Cox. Overall it's very similar to what we had last year and when Brown was hurt in the playoffs, Brock cost us. Hopefully we don't have to endure something like that with a key injury for a long stretch. Also, with all the great passing attacks we'll see this year, these guys have to be ready. Any weakness here is really going to be picked apart by the best QB's that we'll face.

3. S - An injury to here would really hurt. Can mask things a bit at safety but the talent level drops significantly if Whitner or Goldson goes down for any stretch. A rookie S will get tested a lot this year.

 

[MHSL82]

Largely going to depend on how healthy they can stay and also partly on what our offense does.

If our offense improves by holding on to the ball longer and scoring more than naturally that will help the defense out. Just ask the 2010 Packers' defense how much having an offense that puts up serious points helps you defensively.

I do tend to agree that the defense could be even more dominant than it was last season but moreso in the secondary. Rodgers should stay the same but Culliver will definitely improve and Brown will likely will as well. And don't forget Cox who I think will wind up being really productive if he keeps out of trouble.

The defense will still be dominant one way or another so it's not a major concern to me even if they slide a little bit.

I didn't pay much attention to the 2010 Packers defense but Green Bay in general and other high scoring defenses tend to allow more yards and points because of the ease the offense gives them and the catchup game others do when they are up. I would take that over losses or small wins, but I'd expect our numbers to go down as it gets "easier" when we are up by so much. I originally thought it was about the money teams invested in offense left too little for defensive talent, but seeing that Smith was best when we were down by a lot, I can see that being down by a lot gave us a "do or die,""f-it I'm going for it" attitude.

 

[deep9er]

i'll be happy with a defense just close to last year?

as already mentioned, agree it'll come down to health? whether long term to a key player, a rash of 'lesser' injuries, or injuries that hit one spot (like CB 5-6 years ago).

next, agree it'll come down to the pass rush? we'll be defending a few more pass first teams to begin with. those teams that aren't really pass first, can't run effectively so will throw more than their usual.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting an improvement, per se, especially statistically. As I mentioned, staying that healthy is very unlikely, though we do have pretty durable players in general. I'm just excited about some of the promise of a lot of these young guys in this scheme. With no offseason and nearly half the regular defensive players new to major playing time, our D was sensational. I think we can match it or maybe even improve upon it if we don't get hammered with injuries.

In my considerations, I'm mostly divorcing the offense from things. That said, offense could cut both ways. If we can convert more third downs, it will help the D. That said, if we make a significant jump, and are scoring a lot, then the D may be hurt statistically. I don't really see that happening under Harbaugh and given the makeup of the team at present, but we'll see.

 

[BINGO]

I've been thinking about this lately. I really think the D has a good chance of improving a fair bit this season, injuries permitting (we were remarkably healthy last year, obviously).

It struck me that of the 13 "starting" players (I'm looking at 11 starters plus Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver), six of them were first-time starters. There is strong reason to believe that McDonald, Brooks, Bowman, A. Smith, Brown, and Culliver are really only scratching the surface of their ability. Now, J. Smith is bound to start declining in the not-too-distant future, but I don't see it happening yet. In the meantime, there is a lot to be excited about on that side of the ball.

Perrish Cox > Chris Culliver. I'm excited to see what Perrish can bring to our D.

 

[FourBeeDen]

Perrish Cox > Chris Culliver. I'm excited to see what Perrish can bring to our D.

If Perrish did show he is a better option than Culliver, wouldn't it benefit the Niners to switch Culliver to Safety? He did play Safety in College before switching to CB

 

[mem49er]

Perrish Cox > Chris Culliver. I'm excited to see what Perrish can bring to our D.

The part in bold I'm not sure about, but I've been very excited about the signing as well. Hopefully, they can be our tandem starters on the outside for years to come. (After Rogers is in decline, of course).

 

[Jikkle]

Perrish Cox > Chris Culliver. I'm excited to see what Perrish can bring to our D.

Agreed but I think Culliver has a little higher ceiling so and I think with some more experience at CB he could surpass Cox.

Either way our CB position is pretty well stocked and it's a shame that isn't the case at S.

 

[deep9er]

don't know if Cox is better than Culliver, but it appears both are starting off well? so having two more good CB's is a good thing.

i'm obviously glad Culliver is not only panning out, but doing it sooner than you'd expect.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Perrish Cox > Chris Culliver. I'm excited to see what Perrish can bring to our D.

Today, maybe. But Culliver has been receiving some pretty strong praise and has more pure physical ability. Frankly, we should have room for both of these guys. And either way, the third CB spot should be better than it was last year.

 

[Bemular]

Today, maybe. But Culliver has been receiving some pretty strong praise and has more pure physical ability. Frankly, we should have room for both of these guys. And either way, the third CB spot should be better than it was last year.

Exactly! For me it is our pass Def & Off that I am predicting will be the most improved this upcoming season.

 

[BINGO]

If Perrish did show he is a better option than Culliver, wouldn't it benefit the Niners to switch Culliver to Safety? He did play Safety in College before switching to CB

He probably can begin by learning that position as a pro. But as of now he is projected as a corner. Let's continue to develop him at that spot to see if there is any promise. Despite his incredible athleticism, he always seemd to be a half a step too slow last year in his pass coverage. It may be a techique thing or slimpy getting use to the speed of the game at the NFL level - but I sort of liked what I saw in him as a rookie last year. I do agree with your line of thinking though in terms of seeing if we can maximize his talent and I way even you making that post I had envisioned Culliver as a potential starter for us at the safety position if we are unable to sign Goldson to a long term deal by 2013.

 

[BINGO]

Today, maybe. But Culliver has been receiving some pretty strong praise and has more pure physical ability. Frankly, we should have room for both of these guys. And either way, the third CB spot should be better than it was last year.

Yup. I agree!

 

[deep9er]

If Perrish did show he is a better option than Culliver, wouldn't it benefit the Niners to switch Culliver to Safety? He did play Safety in College before switching to CB

if Culliver can become a quality CB, as projected by Coaches now, i'd keep him at CB. it'll benefit us more if he focuses on becoming a starting CB. a quality starting CB is harder to find than a Safety.

things change fast in the NFL, even within a season where a major injury changes the dynamic. for example, what happens if Rogers is out 10 games? do we take the chance all other CB's remain healthy?

 

[threelittleturds]

You know, there is one argument that would suggest the defense getting better. This will be the D's 2nd year in Fangio's system, so all of our players will be sophomores in the system and have a little more swag because they will know their jobs inside and out, and probably know what the guys around them are doing too which makes them work much better as a unit.

I hate to use this comparison because I hate the Packers, but I respect Dom Capers, plus he and Fangio run a very similar system. Capers took a defense that was ranked 20 and turned it into a top defense his first year there. The 2nd year there they got even better and were a major part of GB winning a Super Bowl.

Fangio took a 15th ranked Defense and turned it into a top defense his first year, without an offseason. So I feel like this 2nd year under Fangio should be the same or even better. I believe that the 49ers defense was already good enough to win them a Super Bowl a year ago... it's just the offense and Smith couldn't do enough to make it happen. With all of the starters returning and the coaching staff still intact, and the addition of guys like Cox, plus the growth of the young players... there is just no reason to think they can't keep it going unless they lose key starters to injury.

I also argue that the 49ers can keep the Turnover margin up, because this system and it's coaching provide the players with a great opportunity to make them, plus the players themselves are good at causing turnovers.

 

[FourBeeDen]

I think Sando was reading this thread because I saw this article this morning on the 49ers' Defense