The Bust U thread

[NinerSickness]

Back in 2007 or 2008 or so, I went back and looked at all of the 1st round busts from the span of about a little under a decade if I remember correctly. I was trying to find out which school had the most first round busts. I should have gone by percentage now that I think about it, but I just went by totals. I concluded that Wisconson had the most 1st-round busts, followed by a tie for 2nd (one of which was Florida).

I'm going to omit QBs to keep it simple, so help me out with some opinions on players I might not get a chance to watch as much as you do. I'm going to start with 2010 & go back maybe 5 years.

This is completely subjective because there's no hard & fast rule about qualifying as a bust, but I'm going by a "significant" lower return than what one would expect from where the guy was taken.

So the first guy I'm questioning is Kareem Jackson. Bust or no? I'm saying yes. I didn't follow him very closely last year, but his first couple of seasons were pretty bad.

 

[imac_21]

I would say yes on Jackson.

 

[NinerSickness]

The only guys I put on the list for 2010 (first round) are:

McClain, Brandon Graham, Kareem Jackson, Dan Williams (never liked him one bit), Kyle Wilson & Jerry Hughes (I thought he'd be pretty good). I left off Jahvid Best & Ryan Matthews 'cause I've actually seen them play well, but injuries have screwed up their careers so far.

Derrick Morgan hasn't been great yet, but he did miss his rookie year due to injuries, and he had an ok season last year. He could actually be poised for a break-out season.

I included Tebow just because it's fair to say that a first round QB who's unemployed is a bust. Otherwise I wouldn't have included a QB.

 

[NinerSickness]

How 'bout Robert Ayers? I'd say bust.

 

[NinerSickness]

I"m gonna add Robert Meachem to the list. I would've expected more from the 27th pick overall.

What about AJ Hawk? Would he count as a bust? He isn't a bad player, but he cartainly didn't live up to expectations.

...Maybe I should've said I'm omitting QBs who are still young & starting because I can't leave Matt Leinart off this list.

Jason Allen... would you consider him a bust? He's been an ok player, but was he really worth the 16th pick overall?

 

[NinerSickness]

Joseph Addai? 2 1000 yard seaosns (barely), but worth the 30th pick?

...leaving off David Pollack & Erasmus James. Didn't like either picks even a little, but they both busted out due to injuries.

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm going to stop at 2004; I'm pretty sure I iincluded 2003 last time I did this. That gives me the last 7 years as a sample size.

I'm not going to even list teams who didn't have more than 3 busts. In the running:

LSU - 6
Tennessee - 3.5 (Jason Allen is the half)
Ohio St - 6.5 (AJ Hawk?)
USC - 6
Arkansas - 4

 

[NinerSickness]

Woah! Missed 2 USC busts. Mike Williams & Reggie Bush.

USC - 8

 

[-AC-]

It seems like the schools you have listed have all put out a fair amount of first round picks. So they are bound to have a higher number of bust's. I wonder how the percentages would look in comparison?

 

[NinerSickness]

LSU - 6 busts out of 9. 66.6% bust percentage

Tennessee - 4.5 busts out of 7 (I counted wrong on the last post). Not as much as LSU in total nor percentage. 5 if you count Allen; 4 if you don't. I'm going to err on the side of not counting him, so I'll say 4. Lower total & percentage than LSU.

Ohio St. - 6.5 out of 13. Even if I count Hawk, it's a lower percentage than LSU.

USC - 8 out of 12. Same percentage as LSU (66.6%), but higher total.






...So I think the new Bust U has to be USC (although Tyron Smith & Matt Kalil will probably change that next time I do this).

LSU comes in 2nd.

Tennessee gets the bronze, and Ohio State gets dishonourable mention.

 

[-AC-]

Looking at USC players drafted over the last 10 years (back to 2003) I counted 17 players drafted in the 1st rnd and 7 busts. I didn't consider Bush a bust because he has been servicable. He hasn't lived up to the hype but he has had an 'ok' career (48 TD's so far)...

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

The only guys I put on the list for 2010 (first round) are:

McClain, Brandon Graham, Kareem Jackson, Dan Williams (never liked him one bit), Kyle Wilson & Jerry Hughes (I thought he'd be pretty good). I left off Jahvid Best & Ryan Matthews 'cause I've actually seen them play well, but injuries have screwed up their careers so far.

Derrick Morgan hasn't been great yet, but he did miss his rookie year due to injuries, and he had an ok season last year. He could actually be poised for a break-out season.

I included Tebow just because it's fair to say that a first round QB who's unemployed is a bust. Otherwise I wouldn't have included a QB.

I heard Kyle Wilson played pretty good this past year as a starter

 

[NinerSickness]

Looking at USC players drafted over the last 10 years (back to 2003) I counted 17 players drafted in the 1st rnd and 7 busts. I didn't consider Bush a bust because he has been servicable. He hasn't lived up to the hype but he has had an 'ok' career (48 TD's so far)...

I was going from 2004 to 2010.

I heard Kyle Wilson played pretty good this past year as a starter

He might've, but he was the only bust from Boise St, so I ignored him anyway.

 

[NinerSickness]

I forgot to do Arkansas! D'oh!

4 busts out of 5 1st rounders. 80% bust rate. Highest rate, but not the biggest sample.

 

[-AC-]

I was going from 2004 to 2010.


Gotcha...

 

[MHSL82]

I forgot to do Arkansas! D'oh!

4 busts out of 5 1st rounders. 80% bust rate. Highest rate, but not the biggest sample.

As a USC grad (but more of a Utah fan), I have to say that this sample size counts because we should expect more from Arkansas and only sending out five first rounders is worthy of including them. They should have more first rounders and they should not be busts if they don't want to be on the list. 80% is 80%. JK, anything to make USC have company on this bad list.

 

[imac_21]

I'm surprised there's no Auburn. You could make a pretty good case for them going 4 for 4 in 2005 busts.

Is that too small a sample size?

 

[NinerSickness]

Might as well go into round 2 for just these schools....

USC had 16 2nd round picks from '04 to '10, and 12 of them were busts. 12 busts! 75% of them were busts (including Taylor Mays unfortunately).

Wow. USC is defiinitely the new bust U.

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm surprised there's no Auburn. You could make a pretty good case for them going 4 for 4 in 2005 busts.

Is that too small a sample size?

Y'know, for some reason I ignored Auburn because they were all in the same draft. It seemed like a statistical anomaly. But w/ Ben Grubbs, they're 4 for 5 just like Arkansas.

 

[NinerSickness]

Nothing really interesting to report about the other schools in the 2nd round. Those other schools didn't have a lot of 2nd rounders.