The 2021 NFL Draft Thread.

[SteelersPride]

Can I bet money I mean real money that the Fins won't be the worst in the NFL next year according to that chart? Who makes this shit up?

A bit puzzling. He has them as basically horrid across the board

 

[Shanemansj13]

A bit puzzling. He has them as basically horrid across the board

I mean I did think their defense performed above expectations but that seems way too low still

 

[ducky]

I mean I did think their defense performed above expectations but that seems way too low still

It's a fantasy football ranking system with a really strong SoS factored in it. Doesn't mean anything when it comes to the draft.

 

[SteelersPride]

I mean I did think their defense performed above expectations but that seems way too low still

Same, their d wasnt bad, and offense improving.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Maybe they are all-in on Mac

 

[Shanemansj13]

But I do remember the year Baker was drafred. Rumors were the Browns were choosing between Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. Never heard a word about Baker

 

[Shanemansj13]

 

[Shanemansj13]

 

[Shanemansj13]

 

[Shanemansj13]

@JohnShadows we doing a mock draft contest?

 

[Shanemansj13]

 

[Shanemansj13]

Quarterback
Over 70% of great quarterbacks are taken in the first round, this means if you’re looking for one you should be making a move on day one of the drafts. There will always be exceptions like Brady but looking for your QB starter at pick 199 isn’t a good plan.

Running Back
If there is a position where you can find talent anywhere in the draft and UDFAs then it is running backs and this is confirmed here. The majority of great performers are taken on day two but day three players and UDFAs still gives you a 39% chance.

Wide Receiver
A massive 80% of top 10 receivers each season are drafted in the first two days of the draft and 50% of that is in round one. This means there is real value for taking a wide receiver on day one. In the last few years, we have seen lots of round two wide receivers hit in the draft and the data says over 75% of the top 24 are taken in the before day three.

Tight End
Day two is the day to grab a tight end, over 50% of the great players are drafted there. You are also more likely to find a top 25% tight end on day three rather than day one. The NFL seems to have issues identifying tight ends in the draft and developing them and that shows here.

Tackle
It is the only position on the offensive line where we consistently see great performers drafted. Only a third of the players are taken on days two and three combined.

Guard
Day Two is the most likely place a great guard will be found, it is why going as high as the Colts did for Nelson is a poor use of draft value because you can find prospects later on.

Center
With 38% of the great centers coming on days three it is certainly a case for waiting at the position and not rushing it on day two unless you need to. This is one where you can take some late fliers and see what works.

Edge Defender
If you want a great edge you need to strike in the first round as over 50% of them are taken in that range. There is no real difference in the numbers between day two and day three so it can be a real wildcard once you get outside that first round.

Interior Defender
Lots of the great interior defenders have been taken in the first round, over 40% of them. Then over 25% on day two. I would have said wait until day two in the past but this is saying if you are searching for great then you might need to pull the trigger on day one.

Linebacker
Day Two is the sweet spot for linebackers with 43% coming in that range. The great linebackers are then 23% for day one and three meaning you should probably be avoiding day one linebackers.

Cornerback
This is a fascinating position, the league seems to be poor when assessing cornerback prospects generally. The flip side is that coverage is a harder stat to track for PFF than say passing and rushing that have fewer moving pieces impacting it. Round one and UDFAs are separated by only 14% meaning you can find quality corners anywhere. The scheme can play an impact here, if you’re looking for a press man then that makes it harder than a team looking for a zone.

Safety
There is little point in taking a safety on day one of the draft when searching for great. There is still 35% of great players found on day three and UDFAs so waiting shouldn’t scare teams.

Kicker
If you’re spending a day one or two picks on a kicker then you should really be fired before you make your next selection. Even a day three pick is wasteful based on the numbers.

Punter
Drafting a punter on day two is a waste of a pick but it seems to be 50/50 with day three picks and UDFAs so taking a flier in the 6th and 7th round isn’t crazy when searching for a great play from a punter. Why not bring in a couple of UDFAs and let them battle it out.

 

[JohnShadows]

@JohnShadows we doing a mock draft contest?

Yeah, let me work one example up when I get time, so people know how to list them.

 

[Shanemansj13]

 

[cwalke3408]

I feel like it's a high chance they jump to #4 depending on who the 49ers take

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I feel like it's a high chance they jump to #4 depending on who the 49ers take

IDK think jumping up to the 1.04 would be a bit rich for the Pats. Maybe trade up to the 1.07 ( Lions pick), chances are the Falcons, Bengals or Dolphins won't go QB ( although I'm not sure about the Falcons) and the Pats could draft Fields at the 1.07 right ahead of the Panthers and Broncos, two teams that may be thinking QB.

 

[dtgold88]

I love hearing them, but why it might not be so smart to bet anything you care about based on draft rumors. I remember some browns fans losing their shit as though some of these actually happened...

 

[dtgold88]

 

[cwalke3408]

IDK think jumping up to the 1.04 would be a bit rich for the Pats. Maybe trade up to the 1.07 ( Lions pick), chances are the Falcons, Bengals or Dolphins won't go QB ( although I'm not sure about the Falcons) and the Pats could draft Fields at the 1.07 right ahead of the Panthers and Broncos, two teams that may be thinking QB.

If it's Fields that falls, I can see the 1.04 trade but if Jones and Lance is all that is left, I agree that 1.07 is the more likely trade scenario

 

[Clayton]

If it's Fields that falls, I can see the 1.04 trade but if Jones and Lance is all that is left, I agree that 1.07 is the more likely trade scenario

I'm skeptical that the Falcons want to fall that far in the draft, though