Survivor

[MilkSpiller22]

Mary has a pretty good read on the game.

Sai really believes Mary is working with her.
Mary's confessionals tell us otherwise.

I know Sai is last on your list, but if I'm really thinking endgame, I want Sai in the final three, especially if I'm Mary.

nah... sai is too unpredictable and causes too much drama... she even voted Cederek this time around...
keeping her is a huge mistake, at some point she may find people... you dont want her to ever have power...

 

[Sparhawk]

nah... sai is too unpredictable and causes too much drama... she even voted Cederek this time around...
keeping her is a huge mistake, at some point she may find people... you dont want her to ever have power...

I just believe nobody will vote for her to win at the end.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I just believe nobody will vote for her to win at the end.

people play the end game too hard... you still have to make it to the end game... just get there and you have a chance... no reason to save someone NOW just because they have no chance to win... all it does is make it harder for you to win...

look at last season, when Geneiveve kept on saving Rome... it killed her game...

 

[calsnowskier]

Star snuck up on me and got on my radar this week with that pep talk to Raj (Cedric).

Sai has no chance. She is soooo unlikable.

Joe is too high profile. He will become a vote threat very early and will be taken out just because of that.

Eva is likable, but she will be easily blindsided.

Mary is too quiet for this late in the season to be a real contender, I think.

David is the stereotypical comp threat who will should be targeted early. But he knows this and is actively playing the game to avoid that. I doubt it works, but I like that he is self aware.

Mitch has gotten more attention than he deserves, but I am not sure it is possible NOT to tell his story early in the game. He is a sneaky tough comp “beast” that may allow him to go far. He seems likable.

Surprised there is no edit for Joe/Crissy. Crissy is getting ZERO screen time, so I gotta assume she will be exiting somewhat early as collateral.

Kyle/Camilla is playing a good game, but as has been mentioned, they may be overplaying and look to be a bit paranoid. Of the two, I agree that Kyle appears to be better positioned with the strong alliance behind him.

So far, I don’t really have a strong idea who will win yet, but I have 3 who “have no chance”…

Sai
Crissy
Raj (Cedric)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Star snuck up on me and got on my radar this week with that pep talk to Raj (Cedric).

Sai has no chance. She is soooo unlikable.

Joe is too high profile. He will become a vote threat very early and will be taken out just because of that.

Eva is likable, but she will be easily blindsided.

Mary is too quiet for this late in the season to be a real contender, I think.

David is the stereotypical comp threat who will should be targeted early. But he knows this and is actively playing the game to avoid that. I doubt it works, but I like that he is self aware.

Mitch has gotten more attention than he deserves, but I am not sure it is possible NOT to tell his story early in the game. He is a sneaky tough comp “beast” that may allow him to go far. He seems likable.

Surprised there is no edit for Joe/Crissy. Crissy is getting ZERO screen time, so I gotta assume she will be exiting somewhat early as collateral.

Kyle/Camilla is playing a good game, but as has been mentioned, they may be overplaying and look to be a bit paranoid. Of the two, I agree that Kyle appears to be better positioned with the strong alliance behind him.

So far, I don’t really have a strong idea who will win yet, but I have 3 who “have no chance”…

Sai
Crissy
Raj (Cedric)

I think David’s downfall is that he created the 5, but he didn’t realize how close the three of joe shahid and Ava are. And he is not close enough to Kyle. Which just makes him the most expendable in the 5.

That’s why I don’t think he really has a chance.

Kyle is fine with the 5 because it protects him and as long as he has kamilla he has a good safety net.

That’s why sai is such an easy out for next week. Because it doesn’t make anyone have to show their hands.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think David’s downfall is that he created the 5, but he didn’t realize how close the three of joe shahid and Ava are. And he is not close enough to Kyle. Which just makes him the most expendable in the 5.

That’s why I don’t think he really has a chance.

Kyle is fine with the 5 because it protects him and as long as he has kamilla he has a good safety net.

That’s why sai is such an easy out for next week. Because it doesn’t make anyone have to show their hands.

The “safe” pick was why they kicked Charity this week. Sai and Raj are probably the next two “safe” picks. No one will fight FOR Sai. Raj MIGHT have Star in his corner, but that isn’t really established fully yet. And I am not convinced yet that Star is anyone who needs to be taken seriously.

To agree with you a bit, Mary is playing a strong quiet game right now. She has a “fight” going with Sai, but Sai THINKS they are allies. And if her fight with Sai gets public (Raj is really the only one who knows it exists), everyone will take Mary’s side in the fight.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The “safe” pick was why they kicked Charity this week. Sai and Raj are probably the next two “safe” picks. No one will fight FOR Sai. Raj MIGHT have Star in his corner, but that isn’t really established fully yet. And I am not convinced yet that Star is anyone who needs to be taken seriously.

To agree with you a bit, Mary is playing a strong quiet game right now. She has a “fight” going with Sai, but Sai THINKS they are allies. And if her fight with Sai gets public (Raj is really the only one who knows it exists), everyone will take Mary’s side in the fight.

i am interested in the potential Chrissy and Cederek alliance... they havent shown much on it, if it even exists... but cedrek and chrissy together got Bianca out... i think if this alliance is real, that would be the only thing to save him for a little bit...

and i am really hoping Kamilla and Mary become close... that would be a lot of fun to see the Kyle Kamilla and Mary trio...

 

[calsnowskier]

Kyle and Camilla were shown with an actual loss this week (they were targeting Shauhin). I was ready to begin focusing on one of them to win, but I can’t defend them with a winners edit at this point. Kyle gets a fair bit of screen time, but Camilla gets almost none, and only in relation to Kyle.

Eva is getting a lot of screen time, and she is “overcoming” a “disability”, but I don’t really get the essence she is get a WE.

David is a beast, but he is kinda being portrait as a dumb control hog.

Joe is playing the “mom” this season. But rarely (ever?) has a male “mom” won.

Mitch is a strong player, but I don’t know that he has anyone willing to play with him. His soloxstuture may keep the focus off of him, though.

Chrissy killed herself in Tribal this week.

Star may be a sneaky power player. They made her look the goof in the first few episodes, but that can be forgotten by the viewers by the time the finale comes around.

The beard is just too distracting to take Shauhim seriously. That thing is glorious.

I think that is everyone still around??

My first list (prediction, not who I think is playing best)…

Kyle
Mitch
Star

Joe
Eva
Camilla
Shauhim

David
Crissy

I have very little faith in this list. I really don’t have a sense yet.

Edit:

I forgot about Mary. I think she will begin getting a focus. She doesn’t seem like furniture to me. But at this point, I would have to place her at the bottom of the second tier (just below Shauhin)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Kyle and Camilla were shown with an actual loss this week (they were targeting Shauhin). I was ready to begin focusing on one of them to win, but I can’t defend them with a winners edit at this point. Kyle gets a fair bit of screen time, but Camilla gets almost none, and only in relation to Kyle.

Eva is getting a lot of screen time, and she is “overcoming” a “disability”, but I don’t really get the essence she is get a WE.

David is a beast, but he is kinda being portrait as a dumb control hog.

Joe is playing the “mom” this season. But rarely (ever?) has a male “mom” won.

Mitch is a strong player, but I don’t know that he has anyone willing to play with him. His soloxstuture may keep the focus off of him, though.

Chrissy killed herself in Tribal this week.

Star may be a sneaky power player. They made her look the goof in the first few episodes, but that can be forgotten by the viewers by the time the finale comes around.

The beard is just too distracting to take Shauhim seriously. That thing is glorious.

I think that is everyone still around??

My first list (prediction, not who I think is playing best)…

Kyle
Mitch
Star

Joe
Eva
Camilla
Shauhim

David
Crissy

I have very little faith in this list. I really don’t have a sense yet.

Edit:

I forgot about Mary. I think she will begin getting a focus. She doesn’t seem like furniture to me. But at this point, I would have to place her at the bottom of the second tier (just below Shauhin)

I know you are basing this on the edit. But it seems too early for that. Too many contestants.

I don’t think Chrissy ruined herself at all during the tribal. I actually think she helped herself. She pointed out the clear problem with the loyal clean game. That it is hard to see the difference between any of the members in that alliance. She is absolutely right.

The preview also showed David having some paranoia. Paranoia is the death to these tight alliances. Because they realize they can not play with them.

At this point and until anything big happens my top 2 have to be Kyle and kamilla. With Mary as my top sleeper.

Eva is getting the edit she is right now because of the story. Not because of her game play.

 

[calsnowskier]

I know you are basing this on the edit. But it seems too early for that. Too many contestants.

I don’t think Chrissy ruined herself at all during the tribal. I actually think she helped herself. She pointed out the clear problem with the loyal clean game. That it is hard to see the difference between any of the members in that alliance. She is absolutely right.

The preview also showed David having some paranoia. Paranoia is the death to these tight alliances. Because they realize they can not play with them.

At this point and until anything big happens my top 2 have to be Kyle and kamilla. With Mary as my top sleeper.

Eva is getting the edit she is right now because of the story. Not because of her game play.

I can’t disagree with anything said here. Though Camilla (Kamilla?) is only getting screen time when related to Kyle. And Kyle, similar to David, is being shown as very power-hungry.

It is absolutely too early to have strong opinions yet. I even said that very thing in my post. I have very low confidence in my initial ranking.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I can’t disagree with anything said here. Though Camilla (Kamilla?) is only getting screen time when related to Kyle. And Kyle, similar to David, is being shown as very power-hungry.

It is absolutely too early to have strong opinions yet. I even said that very thing in my post. I have very low confidence in my initial ranking.

Well that’s my question when it comes to the edit. If there is not much to say about a character do they still focus on them for the edit?? Ava’s edit has also cooled off now that her story is told.

 

[calsnowskier]

Well that’s my question when it comes to the edit. If there is not much to say about a character do they still focus on them for the edit?? Ava’s edit has also cooled off now that her story is told.

I primarily look for players who aren’t involved getting screen time. That is the tell tale of a final 3 player. They want the viewers to feel that the main characters made it far. But recently, I think the edits have adjusted to avoid that. Last season, I thought Sam had a horrible edit, but he finished 2nd. But a few seasons back (42-ish?) where the really goofy native African girl won, the edit was bashing the viewer over the head that she was going to be the winner. Iirc, I called her win at about episode 4 or 5.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I primarily look for players who aren’t involved getting screen time. That is the tell tale of a final 3 player. They want the viewers to feel that the main characters made it far. But recently, I think the edits have adjusted to avoid that. Last season, I thought Sam had a horrible edit, but he finished 2nd. But a few seasons back (42-ish?) where the really goofy native African girl won, the edit was bashing the viewer over the head that she was going to be the winner. Iirc, I called her win at about episode 4 or 5.

Kind of like how they bashed us with Ava and her autism. But funny that they did very little with Mitch and his stuttering.

Hiding autism when you are just on the spectrum is much easier than hiding stuttering. lol.

 

[calsnowskier]

Kind of like how they bashed us with Ava and her autism. But funny that they did very little with Mitch and his stuttering.

Hiding autism when you are just on the spectrum is much easier than hiding stuttering. lol.

Tbf, if Eva didn’t have her breakdown, I wonder if they would have made such a big point of it.

They have dealt with Mitch’s stuttering, they just didn’t dedicate an entire episode to it like they did with Eva.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Tbf, if Eva didn’t have her breakdown, I wonder if they would have made such a big point of it.

They have dealt with Mitch’s stuttering, they just didn’t dedicate an entire episode to it like they did with Eva.

They handled Mitch’s stuttering the way you would expect a show to handle a “handicap”. Mentioned it, and showed how it didn’t control his life. It was a very quick mention. The way it should have been.

they talk about Ava’s autism every show. As if it defines her.

 

[calsnowskier]

They handled Mitch’s stuttering the way you would expect a show to handle a “handicap”. Mentioned it, and showed how it didn’t control his life. It was a very quick mention. The way it should have been.

they talk about Ava’s autism every show. As if it defines her.

She had an epic meltdown during/after a comp. Hard to just say “oh well” after that.