State of the Team

[calsnowskier]

It is almost like MLB waited to see how the Yankees would re-build their roster and adjusted accordingly.

Meh.

The change supposedly took place after the ASG in 2015. The Yankee rebuild hit overdrive during last years trade deadline.

Were all teams aware of the new ball? Were some teams more in-the-loop than others?

 

[calsnowskier]

So the Giants have won 6 in a row. That's awesome.

But they should still be sellers.

So who are the buyers? To figure this out, let's look at who is still in contention...

NL

The current playoff teams are...

LA
Milwaukee
Washington
Arizona
Colorado

Teams fewer than 5 games out of a playoff spot...

Chicago
St. Louis

AL

Current playoff teams...

Boston
Cleveland
Houston
NY
Tampa

5 games out...

KC
Minnesota
LA
Seattle
Baltimore
Texas
Toronto


That is a lot of teams who are right in the thick of a race. Houston is basically already in the playoffs. Same with the dogs. Washington has a comfortable lead, but they also have holes to fill. Of these three teams, I think only Houston can afford to stand pat, but they are stacked enough in their system that they will probably still buy. The dogs maybe COULD stand, but they have the depth and history that says they will buy.

 

[SFGRTB]

So the Giants have won 6 in a row. That's awesome.

But they should still be sellers.

So who are the buyers? To figure this out, let's look at who is still in contention...

NL

The current playoff teams are...

LA
Milwaukee
Washington
Arizona
Colorado

Teams fewer than 5 games out of a playoff spot...

Chicago
St. Louis

AL

Current playoff teams...

Boston
Cleveland
Houston
NY
Tampa

5 games out...

KC
Minnesota
LA
Seattle
Baltimore
Texas
Toronto


That is a lot of teams who are right in the thick of a race. Houston is basically already in the playoffs. Same with the dogs. Washington has a comfortable lead, but they also have holes to fill. Of these three teams, I think only Houston can afford to stand pat, but they are stacked enough in their system that they will probably still buy. The dogs maybe COULD stand, but they have the depth and history that says they will buy.

Houston's starting pitching depth this year has taken a beating, I think they're still actively looking to add there and I think they be our best bet for selling off. I think Nunez heads back to the AL East, either Boston or New York need a 3rd baseman. And I think we are sending a reliever to Washington.

 

[calsnowskier]

Houston's starting pitching depth this year has taken a beating, I think they're still actively looking to add there and I think they be our best bet for selling off. I think Nunez heads back to the AL East, either Boston or New York need a 3rd baseman. And I think we are sending a reliever to Washington.

The Washington/Reliever rumors have been going quite a bit lately. So who do we ship?

Melancon has a full no-trade, but I have not heard any rumors that he did not like it in DC last year. He may waive the no-trade.

Dyson has looked great since coming over. But will his value be redeemed enough in time to get any value for him by the deadline? Personally, I would rather keep him.

Kontos/Gearrin/Strickland? Strick ain't going to D.C. Kontos and Gearin are not closers, so would D.C. Even be interested?

Law has zero trade value right now.

 

[SFGRTB]

The Washington/Reliever rumors have been going quite a bit lately. So who do we ship?

Melancon has a full no-trade, but I have not heard any rumors that he did not like it in DC last year. He may waive the no-trade.

Dyson has looked great since coming over. But will his value be redeemed enough in time to get any value for him by the deadline? Personally, I would rather keep him.

Kontos/Gearrin/Strickland? Strick ain't going to D.C. Kontos and Gearin are not closers, so would D.C. Even be interested?

Law has zero trade value right now.

I was thinking it might be shrewd of the Giants to flip Dyson at the deadline. It's not like they have much attachment to him yet.

The Nationals bullpen as a whole is bad, they can use arms up and down.

 

[calsnowskier]

I totally get the "flip Dyson" strategy. But he is still controllable for 3 or 4 more years. And while his value is certainly more than it was when we traded for him, it still has some stink on it. I a man not sure we can get proper value for him just yet...

And their bully does suck, and they have a history with Melancon. They may be willing to do what is needed to acquire Melancon, which I would prefer greatly.

 

[Stokes1931]

I totally get the "flip Dyson" strategy. But he is still controllable for 3 or 4 more years. And while his value is certainly more than it was when we traded for him, it still has some stink on it. I a man not sure we can get proper value for him just yet...

And their bully does suck, and they have a history with Melancon. They may be willing to do what is needed to acquire Melancon, which I would prefer greatly.

Dyson's salary numbers from baseball-reference.com

2015 27 Miami Marlins $507,500 0.142 contracts
2016 28 Texas Rangers $525,270 1.142
2017 29 Texas Rangers $3,520,000 2.142
2017 Status Signed thru 2017, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2018, Earliest Free Agent: 2021
Career to date (may be incomplete) $4,552,770

 

[calsnowskier]

Dyson's salary numbers from baseball-reference.com

2015 27 Miami Marlins $507,500 0.142 contracts
2016 28 Texas Rangers $525,270 1.142
2017 29 Texas Rangers $3,520,000 2.142
2017 Status Signed thru 2017, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2018, Earliest Free Agent: 2021
Career to date (may be incomplete) $4,552,770

With his meltdown in Texas this year, he shouldn't be due for a huge raise this year. I don't have any comps, but I would guess he will get an arb value of about 4M next year. If he is closer to the '16 Dyson than he is to the '17 Texas-Dyson, that is a steal. And I don't think his trade value will match that this year.

Maybe I am wrong.

 

[LHG]

According to ESPN, the Giants need to blow up the team - Giants must take wrecking ball to lineup at trade deadline

 

[calsnowskier]

According to ESPN, the Giants need to blow up the team - Giants must take wrecking ball to lineup at trade deadline

I can't believe I am saying this, but ESPN actually makes some good points.

I hate that millennials are so antsy that MLB has to change the very physics of this great game and turn it into a simple HR derby by doctoring the balls.

 

[LHG]

I can't believe I am saying this, but ESPN actually makes some good points.

I hate that millennials are so antsy that MLB has to change the very physics of this great game and turn it into a simple HR derby by doctoring the balls.

Yeah, I thought of you when I read. "Hmm, maybe this is cal's writing name."

 

[msgkings322]

According to ESPN, the Giants need to blow up the team - Giants must take wrecking ball to lineup at trade deadline

They don't need to and they won't. ESPN should worry about their own problems

 

[calsnowskier]

They don't need to and they won't. ESPN should worry about their own problems

I WANT to agree with you. I WANT baseball to be the same spirt it has been in the past, where fundamentals and small ball can win games. Unfortunately, I am beginning to believe that the equipment used to play the game is making that impossible. The PsTB believe that flash and speed and power are the only things that attract the current, short-attention-span young'uns (and they may be right).

The strategy of elite pitching and defense doesn't work when every pop fly leaves the yard. Elite pitching is nullified if the ball has no seams to get a grip on.

I am still struggling with what, exactly, I believe is the solution. But I am slowly edging towards the belief that small-ball don't work anymore. The league offices have seen to that...

 

[SFGRTB]

I saw this little nugget and brushed it off at first..... but it is VERYYYY interesting:



Giants offer to take on all/most of his salary, all we'd need to throw in is a Melvin Adon type.

Get Cueto's money off the books. Try very hard to get Pence's. The Astros' are interested in Samardjzia.

Chances are very low, but honestly I can see it happening more than I could have a few years ago. The Giants would HAVE to plug in a few holes with kids (LF, 1 or 2 rotation spots, 3B, bench) to keep below the luxury line. But that wouldn't be the worst thing.

 

[calsnowskier]

I saw this little nugget and brushed it off at first..... but it is VERYYYY interesting:



Giants offer to take on all/most of his salary, all we'd need to throw in is a Melvin Adon type.

Get Cueto's money off the books. Try very hard to get Pence's. The Astros' are interested in Samardjzia.

Chances are very low, but honestly I can see it happening more than I could have a few years ago.

I am not sure I support this idea. Big dudes typically do not age well, and he already has a bit of an injury history.

He may be a beast for 2 or 3 years, but yikes, dude... He is owed 295M from 2018-2028. 3 good years, 3 "current Pence" years, 4 gawd-awful years. All for at least 25M per.

 

[SFGRTB]

I am not sure I support this idea. Big dudes typically do not age well, and he already has a bit of an injury history.

He may be a beast for 2 or 3 years, but yikes, dude... He is owed 295M from 2018-2028. 3 good years, 3 "current Pence" years, 4 gawd-awful years. All for at least 25M per.

If he's a beast for 3 years, he'll opt out.

If he's not, well, that's why we can get him for nothing but a low-A prospect

 

[calsnowskier]

If he's a beast for 3 years, he'll opt out.

If he's not, well, that's why we can get him for nothing but a low-A prospect

No way hell is that all it would cost. It would cost Shaw and Beede, just to start.

 

[SFGRTB]

No way hell is that all it would cost. It would cost Shaw and Beede, just to start.

If the Marlins are paying more than half his contract. If the Giants take on most/all of it, there's no way in hell the Marlins can get greedy.

You said it yourself, it's a bad deal. If they want to get out of it, THEY'RE going to have to pay.

 

[calsnowskier]

Somebody will pay in prospects and take the contract. Look at Hamels going to Texas a couple years back...

 

[calsnowskier]

Question...

Assuming the Giants get Stanton, and Miami pays half the contract, does the contract still count 100% against the Giants tax level?