State of the Team

[calsnowskier]

It is hard to not be cynical about this team. I try to counter my pessimism with the thought that if they got this bad this fast (who saw that coming?) then maybe they can get really good really fast too. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that is a good way to think if the person thinking it is the GM of the organization.

The problem with that is that the team is on the wrong side of old.

Sure, with just minor tweaking, they will likely be a better team. But playoffs? I think not.

For a team to turn bad, they just need to age and/or get comfortable. For a team to get good, there needs to be some kind of infusion. And the biggest possibilities from the farm to be able to provide this are Arroyo, Duggar, Shaw, Beede and Suarez. And I don't see a superstar in that bunch. MAYBE Shaw, but I am not holding my breath.

 

[LHG]

The problem with that is that the team is on the wrong side of old.

Sure, with just minor tweaking, they will likely be a better team. But playoffs? I think not.

For a team to turn bad, they just need to age and/or get comfortable. For a team to get good, there needs to be some kind of infusion. And the biggest possibilities from the farm to be able to provide this are Arroyo, Duggar, Shaw, Beede and Suarez. And I don't see a superstar in that bunch. MAYBE Shaw, but I am not holding my breath.

I tend to agree with your assessment, but to think on the flip side, who were the superstars on this team? Madison Bumgarner. He should be healthy next year. Of course it remains to be seen whether he can pitch like he used to. So far, his starts have looked somewhat promising.
Johnny Cueto. If he gets over the blister issues and pitches like he has in the past, there might be one or two more superstar years left.
Buster Posey. Nothing wrong with his production, minus his RISP production. I think a couple more years of above average output can be expected.
Brandon Crawford - His superstar production comes more on the defensive side but his offense has been a contributor. I don't know if he can produce again like the past couple of years.
Hunter Pence? - I'm not sure he could ever be classified quite in the superstar range. What if Duggar can match what Pence did in the past within the next 3 years?

 

[Pattersonca65]

The pen isn't as.much an issue as the starters. Cueto I can see coming back pretty well if he fixes the blisters. Not sure why we can expect Moore and Samardjiza to not suck

The bullpen for the most part I think is still young so maybe some of those guys will pan out with experience. But wasn't the pen a pretty big issue this year? The Giants used to have one of the best bullpens in the majors.

 

[LHG]

The bullpen for the most part I think is still young so maybe some of those guys will pan out with experience. But wasn't the pen a pretty big issue this year? The Giants used to have one of the best bullpens in the majors.

Check out what I did on this thread - Game Thread: - 7/16 Scrabble @ Fathers. The bullpen is the least of the team's worries. It was once a great bullpen. Unfortunately, the rest of the team has gotten worse than the bullpen.

 

[msgkings322]

The bullpen for the most part I think is still young so maybe some of those guys will pan out with experience. But wasn't the pen a pretty big issue this year? The Giants used to have one of the best bullpens in the majors.

Actually the pen has been the least shitty part of the team, which isn't saying much. And you are correct it used to be elite.

This year is such a gut punch because we are SO bad on all levels, and we did not at all expect it.

 

[SF11704]

The only thing that makes this year tolerable is that they are SO BAD that it doesn't matter. If they were still in the race (even a long shot) it would be one hell of a stress factor trying to follow a 500 team down the stretch. But they aren't. They haven't been for quite some time now.
I agree with the status of the pen. They are in the middle of the pack. They can hold there own but they are no longer elite. Then again they have no real reason to be elite other than personal pride. Nothing much to shoot for. SP is a whole different game. Bum is Bum ... but what about next year? Cueto is also another question. Scrabble and Moore are just horrible and Cain doesn't even enter the discussion.

My major concern is the offense. Or actually lack of! If you look at the top tier teams in baseball they all seem to have 4-6 players with double figures in HRs with 2 or more in the 20 bracket (as of today). We have two in double figures and one of those is at 11. The game has changed and the focus is on scoring. It becomes difficult for our SP to pitch a 2 run game only to give up a 3 run homer and absorb another loss. They have NO WIGGLE room at all. One mistake can easily turn a projected win into a loss. Seen a few of those this year.

I don't think we can 'tweak' something like this ... for me this represents a major shift in strategy. Not sure we can win playing small ball any more. Not with only 2 hitter at the 300 level and absolutely no power in the lineup at all. Can't sustain an attack with this approach.

I would love to have 2 bats with a 25+ HR potential.

 

[LHG]

The only thing that makes this year tolerable is that they are SO BAD that it doesn't matter. If they were still in the race (even a long shot) it would be one hell of a stress factor trying to follow a 500 team down the stretch. But they aren't. They haven't been for quite some time now.
I agree with the status of the pen. They are in the middle of the pack. They can hold there own but they are no longer elite. Then again they have no real reason to be elite other than personal pride. Nothing much to shoot for. SP is a whole different game. Bum is Bum ... but what about next year? Cueto is also another question. Scrabble and Moore are just horrible and Cain doesn't even enter the discussion.

My major concern is the offense. Or actually lack of! If you look at the top tier teams in baseball they all seem to have 4-6 players with double figures in HRs with 2 or more in the 20 bracket (as of today). We have two in double figures and one of those is at 11. The game has changed and the focus is on scoring. It becomes difficult for our SP to pitch a 2 run game only to give up a 3 run homer and absorb another loss. They have NO WIGGLE room at all. One mistake can easily turn a projected win into a loss. Seen a few of those this year.

I don't think we can 'tweak' something like this ... for me this represents a major shift in strategy. Not sure we can win playing small ball any more. Not with only 2 hitter at the 300 level and absolutely no power in the lineup at all. Can't sustain an attack with this approach.

I would love to have 2 bats with a 25+ HR potential.

It is amazing to me how quickly the offensive landscape has changed at the MLB level. Maybe its been closer to a slow creep, but, to me, the change has been quite sudden. First base is a prime example of that. Up until last year, Brandon Belt easily fell within the top 10 list of 1st basemen in both OPS and WAR, typically ranking somewhere between 7th and 11th. This year, he currently ranks 22nd in OPS (among those with at least 200 at-bats) but 8th in WAR. His OPS is down this year (what Giant isn't down in some major category in 2017) but that gap between OPS and WAR has been a lot smaller for him in previous years, typically 2 to 4 ranks. And Belt projects to surpass the 20 home run number for the first time in his career.

 

[Stokes1931]

The mlb site has a headline: Bumgarner Seeks First Win.

And dudes, it is the end of July!?!?!?!

Been that kind of season.

 

[Stokes1931]

It is amazing to me how quickly the offensive landscape has changed at the MLB level. Maybe its been closer to a slow creep, but, to me, the change has been quite sudden. First base is a prime example of that. Up until last year, Brandon Belt easily fell within the top 10 list of 1st basemen in both OPS and WAR, typically ranking somewhere between 7th and 11th. This year, he currently ranks 22nd in OPS (among those with at least 200 at-bats) but 8th in WAR. His OPS is down this year (what Giant isn't down in some major category in 2017) but that gap between OPS and WAR has been a lot smaller for him in previous years, typically 2 to 4 ranks. And Belt projects to surpass the 20 home run number for the first time in his career.

Just wasting time here, but my suspicion is that most of Belt's homers are hit when the Giants are way ahead or way behind.

4/5 Belt solo homer in the 5th to give the Giants a 4-1 lead (in a game they would lose)

4/7 Belt grand slam homer in the 6th to give the Giants a 5-4 lead (in a game they would lose)
Belt solo homer in the 8th to bring the Giants within a run and a 7-6 deficit

4/21 Belt solo homer in the 6th to bring the Giants within two runs and a 6-4 deficit (in a game they would lose)

5/11 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would lose)

5/13 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/14 Belt solo homer in the 6th to give the Giants a 8-2 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/16 Belt solo homer in the 4th to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/22 Belt solo homer in the 5th to give the Giants a 5-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/27 Belt solo homer in the 4th to give the Giants a 3-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

6/10 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would lose)

6/20 Belt solo homer in the 9th increases the Giants's lead to 6-3 (in a game they would WIN)

6/22 Belt solo homer in the 8th to bring the Giants to a 12-7 deficit (in a game they would lose)

6/24 Belt solo homer in the 7th ties the Giants with the Mets 1-1 (in a game they would lose)

6/30 Belt solo homer in the 8th increases the Giants's lead to 12-5 (in a game they would WIN)

7/2 Belt two-run homer in the 8th increases the Giants's lead to 5-2 (in a game they would WIN)

So 14 of Belt's 16 homers are solo homers.

5 homers gave the Giants a lead

1 tied the game

The Giants have hit 79 homers, 58 of which are solo homers. (18 two-run, 2 EWS, 1 salami)

 

[1phlapdown]

The mlb site has a headline: Bumgarner Seeks First Win.

And dudes, it is the end of July!?!?!?!

Been that kind of season.

Frankly I was concerned when he was 0-3 before his Evel Kneivel imitation.

 

[Stokes1931]

 

[LHG]

The nonsense that is the 2017 season just keeps coming.

 

[LHG]

Just wasting time here, but my suspicion is that most of Belt's homers are hit when the Giants are way ahead or way behind.

4/5 Belt solo homer in the 5th to give the Giants a 4-1 lead (in a game they would lose)

4/7 Belt grand slam homer in the 6th to give the Giants a 5-4 lead (in a game they would lose)
Belt solo homer in the 8th to bring the Giants within a run and a 7-6 deficit

4/21 Belt solo homer in the 6th to bring the Giants within two runs and a 6-4 deficit (in a game they would lose)

5/11 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would lose)

5/13 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/14 Belt solo homer in the 6th to give the Giants a 8-2 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/16 Belt solo homer in the 4th to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/22 Belt solo homer in the 5th to give the Giants a 5-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/27 Belt solo homer in the 4th to give the Giants a 3-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

6/10 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would lose)

6/20 Belt solo homer in the 9th increases the Giants's lead to 6-3 (in a game they would WIN)

6/22 Belt solo homer in the 8th to bring the Giants to a 12-7 deficit (in a game they would lose)

6/24 Belt solo homer in the 7th ties the Giants with the Mets 1-1 (in a game they would lose)

6/30 Belt solo homer in the 8th increases the Giants's lead to 12-5 (in a game they would WIN)

7/2 Belt two-run homer in the 8th increases the Giants's lead to 5-2 (in a game they would WIN)

So 14 of Belt's 16 homers are solo homers.

5 homers gave the Giants a lead

1 tied the game

The Giants have hit 79 homers, 58 of which are solo homers. (18 two-run, 2 EWS, 1 salami)

Looks like Belt's nickname should be "Solo" (or just call the entire lineup Han's cousins and decent relatives). At least many of those were desperately needed and weren't meaningless. The bigger question is how he does with RISP in general.

 

[stanford the manford]

The problem with that is that the team is on the wrong side of old.

Sure, with just minor tweaking, they will likely be a better team. But playoffs? I think not.

For a team to turn bad, they just need to age and/or get comfortable. For a team to get good, there needs to be some kind of infusion. And the biggest possibilities from the farm to be able to provide this are Arroyo, Duggar, Shaw, Beede and Suarez. And I don't see a superstar in that bunch. MAYBE Shaw, but I am not holding my breath.

of the 20 game i attended in '16, the giants were always the least athletic team on the field. this year is worse. i'm not sure '19 will be an improvement.

their formula of pitching, defense, att park, and death-by-a-thousand-cuts-run-production may not be competitive in the age of walks and bombs....

sure, colossally sub-par years (by everyone not named posey and nunez) and injuries have been huge. but i wouldn't want to bet that this roster going into '17 will suddenly become sustainably competitive at the top of the division.

eventually to win, we'll need a roster where a majority of the players are on the upswing side of their careers. this isn't it

 

[LHG]

of the 20 game i attended in '16, the giants were always the least athletic team on the field. this year is worse. i'm not sure '19 will be an improvement.

their formula of pitching, defense, att park, and death-by-a-thousand-cuts-run-production may not be competitive in the age of walks and bombs....

sure, colossally sub-par years (by everyone not named posey and nunez) and injuries have been huge. but i wouldn't want to bet that this roster going into '17 will suddenly become sustainably competitive at the top of the division.

eventually to win, we'll need a roster where a majority of the players are on the upswing side of their careers. this isn't it

I do think a few of the Giants can turn it around next year but there's also a few that will probably continue the downhill slide. Pence is the most likely candidate on the latter side. I think Crawford could do better, offensively, in 2018.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Just wasting time here, but my suspicion is that most of Belt's homers are hit when the Giants are way ahead or way behind.

4/5 Belt solo homer in the 5th to give the Giants a 4-1 lead (in a game they would lose)

4/7 Belt grand slam homer in the 6th to give the Giants a 5-4 lead (in a game they would lose)
Belt solo homer in the 8th to bring the Giants within a run and a 7-6 deficit

4/21 Belt solo homer in the 6th to bring the Giants within two runs and a 6-4 deficit (in a game they would lose)

5/11 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would lose)

5/13 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/14 Belt solo homer in the 6th to give the Giants a 8-2 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/16 Belt solo homer in the 4th to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/22 Belt solo homer in the 5th to give the Giants a 5-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

5/27 Belt solo homer in the 4th to give the Giants a 3-0 lead (in a game they would WIN)

6/10 Belt solo homer in the 1st to give the Giants a 1-0 lead (in a game they would lose)

6/20 Belt solo homer in the 9th increases the Giants's lead to 6-3 (in a game they would WIN)

6/22 Belt solo homer in the 8th to bring the Giants to a 12-7 deficit (in a game they would lose)

6/24 Belt solo homer in the 7th ties the Giants with the Mets 1-1 (in a game they would lose)

6/30 Belt solo homer in the 8th increases the Giants's lead to 12-5 (in a game they would WIN)

7/2 Belt two-run homer in the 8th increases the Giants's lead to 5-2 (in a game they would WIN)

So 14 of Belt's 16 homers are solo homers.

5 homers gave the Giants a lead

1 tied the game

The Giants have hit 79 homers, 58 of which are solo homers. (18 two-run, 2 EWS, 1 salami)

IDK, if he will ever be the guy we want him to be hitting in the heart of the lineup.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I do think a few of the Giants can turn it around next year but there's also a few that will probably continue the downhill slide. Pence is the most likely candidate on the latter side. I think Crawford could do better, offensively, in 2018.

I think Crawford can rebound in 2017

 

[stanford the manford]

offense will improve in in 17. this is historically bad and i doubt we'll see a repeat. however if we don't get power somehow the pic thing staff will need to figure out how to keep it to 2 or less runs. that's a tall order given where we are.

would hurt if the offense could figure out how to manufacture a run or two

 

[SFGRTB]

Looks like Belt's nickname should be "Solo" (or just call the entire lineup Han's cousins and decent relatives). At least many of those were desperately needed and weren't meaningless. The bigger question is how he does with RISP in general.

Well, .253/.412/.481 for a .893 OPS.

 

[Stokes1931]

offense will improve in in 17. this is historically bad and i doubt we'll see a repeat. however if we don't get power somehow the pic thing staff will need to figure out how to keep it to 2 or less runs. that's a tall order given where we are.

would hurt if the offense could figure out how to manufacture a run or two

Noggin doesn't believe in sacrifices, hit and run, stolen bases (Nunez excepted) speed on the bases, etc. Hard to "manufacture runs" when you are a plodding station to station team.