State of the AFCE

[Southieinnc]

Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th in AFC)

ESPN's stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?

There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skill players (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions include edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There's also a new No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, as soon as he's fully recovered from last year's ACL tear.


With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.

The problem isn't the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

 

[Dude]

Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th in AFC)

ESPN's stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?

There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skill players (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions include edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There's also a new No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, as soon as he's fully recovered from last year's ACL tear.


With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.

The problem isn't the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

I’m really looking forward to the games against the Bills. Pats are no longer a pushover, I’m sure we’ll see a lot more discipline and hunger with the new focus.

 

[cdumler7]

Dolphins are trying to have a fire sale but -
Nobody wants Jalen Ramsey $50 million
Nobody wants Tyreek Hill $ 56 million
Nobody wants Jonnu Smith $8 million and wanting more
Bradly Chubb $36 million and Austin Jackson $18 million can't get on the fieled
Terron Armstead is officially retired and they are looking at starting Patrick Paul rookie LT

Dolphins did the exact opposite of what team building says to do if you want to compete for championships. They traded and paid big money for players that were reaching the end of their peak career. CB's after the age of 30 see a decent drop off in production. Ramsey is still good, but not for the contract he has at this point. Same with Hill being 31 and a speedster. Speed seems to hit a wall after about 28 and he is 31. He is a freak athlete but wouldn't surprise me if we see him struggle to stay healthy and ever produce at the level he was. They traded and paid Chubb huge money who has proven to be injury prone and is once again coming off injury.

They thought they had a small Super Bowl window and went all in, but along the way they tried to take shortcuts to microwave the situation. In the NFL you cannot take shortcuts to win.

 

[Dude]

Dolphins did the exact opposite of what team building says to do if you want to compete for championships. They traded and paid big money for players that were reaching the end of their peak career. CB's after the age of 30 see a decent drop off in production. Ramsey is still good, but not for the contract he has at this point. Same with Hill being 31 and a speedster. Speed seems to hit a wall after about 28 and he is 31. He is a freak athlete but wouldn't surprise me if we see him struggle to stay healthy and ever produce at the level he was. They traded and paid Chubb huge money who has proven to be injury prone and is once again coming off injury.

They thought they had a small Super Bowl window and went all in, but along the way they tried to take shortcuts to microwave the situation. In the NFL you cannot take shortcuts to win.

Also, the Dolphins have been looking for a great HC/QB combo for decades, dating back to Marino. Ownership has played a big role in the Dolphin demise. They couldn’t do it with Marino and Jimmy, thanks in large part to the owner in those days.

 

[nefansince75]

Dolphins did the exact opposite of what team building says to do if you want to compete for championships. They traded and paid big money for players that were reaching the end of their peak career. CB's after the age of 30 see a decent drop off in production. Ramsey is still good, but not for the contract he has at this point. Same with Hill being 31 and a speedster. Speed seems to hit a wall after about 28 and he is 31. He is a freak athlete but wouldn't surprise me if we see him struggle to stay healthy and ever produce at the level he was. They traded and paid Chubb huge money who has proven to be injury prone and is once again coming off injury.

They thought they had a small Super Bowl window and went all in, but along the way they tried to take shortcuts to microwave the situation. In the NFL you cannot take shortcuts to win.

If they had a window it was one of those small basement windows with the slider that only opens half way.

 

[cdumler7]

Also, the Dolphins have been looking for a great HC/QB combo for decades, dating back to Marino. Ownership has played a big role in the Dolphin demise. They couldn’t do it with Marino and Jimmy, thanks in large part to the owner in those days.

Unfortunately when you haven't had a great QB in a while or great coach the second you feel like there is even a glimmer of hope you see teams jump all in. I watched it for years here in Denver of fans hanging onto mediocre QB's at best and trying to prop them up as something more than they were. Tua has been a decent QB (when healthy). I think the 2022 season where he had a good year really made people believe he was on his way up around Miami and they just went crazy from there with trades and contracts.

 

[cdumler7]

If they had a window it was one of those small basement windows with the slider that only opens half way.

Oh I would agree. It was not a great set up the way they had it and then they just kept digging deeper thinking it would get them out of their hole. It is crazy all that they have traded away over the last several years...Ramsey wasn't bad for a 3rd and a TE that wasn't worth a whole lot. But then they handed him that huge contract. Hill they traded a 1st, 2nd, 2 4th round picks, and a 6th and then handed him the largest WR contract in NFL history. Bradley Chubb they traded for giving up a 1st and 4th round pick and once again handed him a huge contract.

They have gotten so top heavy and didn't have the draft picks to counter the huge contracts they handed out.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

Oh I would agree. It was not a great set up the way they had it and then they just kept digging deeper thinking it would get them out of their hole. It is crazy all that they have traded away over the last several years...Ramsey wasn't bad for a 3rd and a TE that wasn't worth a whole lot. But then they handed him that huge contract. Hill they traded a 1st, 2nd, 2 4th round picks, and a 6th and then handed him the largest WR contract in NFL history. Bradley Chubb they traded for giving up a 1st and 4th round pick and once again handed him a huge contract.

They have gotten so top heavy and didn't have the draft picks to counter the huge contracts they handed out.

The Dan Snyder method.

 

[cdumler7]

The Dan Snyder method.

Makes me think of the scene from Arrested Development where the brother and sister are talking about a scheme. She asked if it ever worked and he said "No it never does. Those people delude themselves into believing it might work, but it might work for us."

Unfortunately ownership has this idea of I can just force a championship to happen. They are used to just throwing money around and things working out in their favor. Doesn't quite work like that in the NFL. The best owners are the ones that hire smart football people and understand this is a unique business. It will always make the owners lots of money, but in order to win championships you have to do things differently and in many ways be more hands off trusting the people you hired to do their job well.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

Makes me think of the scene from Arrested Development where the brother and sister are talking about a scheme. She asked if it ever worked and he said "No it never does. Those people delude themselves into believing it might work, but it might work for us."

Unfortunately ownership has this idea of I can just force a championship to happen. They are used to just throwing money around and things working out in their favor. Doesn't quite work like that in the NFL. The best owners are the ones that hire smart football people and understand this is a unique business. It will always make the owners lots of money, but in order to win championships you have to do things differently and in many ways be more hands off trusting the people you hired to do their job well.

Bill Belichick had a comment a couple decades ago now about how he would rather have a team of 2nd and 3rd round picks than a team with a few firsts and the rest 6th and 7th

While not entirely true...and not verbatim either... I get the point. A team of really decent players will out perform a team with a few elite talent players and the rest scrubs.

I believe he said it during questioning about his contract negotiation methods. Pay everyone like they are good and nobody like they are better than everyone.


It worked for a long time.

 

[cdumler7]

Bill Belichick had a comment a couple decades ago now about how he would rather have a team of 2nd and 3rd round picks than a team with a few firsts and the rest 6th and 7th

While not entirely true...and not verbatim either... I get the point. A team of really decent players will out perform a team with a few elite talent players and the rest scrubs.

I believe he said it during questioning about his contract negotiation methods. Pay everyone like they are good and nobody like they are better than everyone.


It worked for a long time.

Makes sense. Many position groups are only as good as their weakest link. So OL you could have 4 elite players but one bottom tier guy and have a bad OL because teams will just keep attacking that one player over and over again. It would be better to have 5 above average players on the OL than one with 4 elite and one terrible player. Same with the secondary. You can have great players across the board but if you have one CB/Safety that is a weakness teams will take advantage of that left and right.

In today's NFL though you are seeing more teams get top heavy and overpaying players that haven't earned it. QB is the easiest position to see this. Dak is the highest paid QB right now. Not sure I would even have him in the top-10 if I was making a list. Tua, Love, and Goff are all being paid as top-10 QB's and only Goff would I say is borderline being in that group and that might be more because of the talent around him than him truly being on that list.

 

[Southieinnc]

Unfortunately when you haven't had a great QB in a while or great coach the second you feel like there is even a glimmer of hope you see teams jump all in. I watched it for years here in Denver of fans hanging onto mediocre QB's at best and trying to prop them up as something more than they were. Tua has been a decent QB (when healthy). I think the 2022 season where he had a good year really made people believe he was on his way up around Miami and they just went crazy from there with trades and contracts.

McDaniel has been regressing too. After missing the mark in results, he has been showing his lack of experience in decision making. Morale is very bad and nobody seems to know how to stop the train wreck.

 

[cdumler7]

McDaniel has been regressing too. After missing the mark in results, he has been showing his lack of experience in decision making. Morale is very bad and nobody seems to know how to stop the train wreck.

The answer is simple but impossible for a team to step into. It is hitting the reset button. Recognizing that you overpaid and traded away too much over the last few years and now you need to rebuild. It will mean getting the team back down to the bare bones and having someone that knows this will take a couple of years before you can really start to see some results.

Fans and ownership do not have the patience to let that happen though. Saints are in the same boat with their salary cap hell they find themselves in. They just keep pushing the can down the road because they do not want to suck for a year knowing it will lead to everyone getting fired.

 

[Southieinnc]

The answer is simple but impossible for a team to step into. It is hitting the reset button. Recognizing that you overpaid and traded away too much over the last few years and now you need to rebuild. It will mean getting the team back down to the bare bones and having someone that knows this will take a couple of years before you can really start to see some results.

Fans and ownership do not have the patience to let that happen though. Saints are in the same boat with their salary cap hell they find themselves in. They just keep pushing the can down the road because they do not want to suck for a year knowing it will lead to everyone getting fired.

As an AFCE follower, it was clear what Miami was doing when they were throwing money around to get stars. As a Pats fan, I was waiting impatiently for Miami to get to this mess!

 

[nefansince75]

As an AFCE follower, it was clear what Miami was doing when they were throwing money around to get stars. As a Pats fan, I was waiting impatiently for Miami to get to this mess!

They bought two things: hype for their fans; and enough wins to break their hearts.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

As an AFCE follower, it was clear what Miami was doing when they were throwing money around to get stars. As a Pats fan, I was waiting impatiently for Miami to get to this mess!

I just kept my fingers crossed that it wouldn't work before implosion.