State of the AFCE

[Southieinnc]

Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th in AFC)

ESPN's stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?

There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skill players (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions include edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There's also a new No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, as soon as he's fully recovered from last year's ACL tear.


With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.

The problem isn't the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

 

[Dude]

Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th in AFC)

ESPN's stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?

There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skill players (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions include edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There's also a new No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, as soon as he's fully recovered from last year's ACL tear.


With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.

The problem isn't the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

I’m really looking forward to the games against the Bills. Pats are no longer a pushover, I’m sure we’ll see a lot more discipline and hunger with the new focus.