State of the AFCE

[Southieinnc]

Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th in AFC)

ESPN's stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?

There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skill players (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions include edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There's also a new No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, as soon as he's fully recovered from last year's ACL tear.


With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.

The problem isn't the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

 

[Dude]

Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th in AFC)

ESPN's stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?

There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skill players (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions include edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There's also a new No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, as soon as he's fully recovered from last year's ACL tear.


With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.

The problem isn't the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

I’m really looking forward to the games against the Bills. Pats are no longer a pushover, I’m sure we’ll see a lot more discipline and hunger with the new focus.

 

[cdumler7]

Dolphins are trying to have a fire sale but -
Nobody wants Jalen Ramsey $50 million
Nobody wants Tyreek Hill $ 56 million
Nobody wants Jonnu Smith $8 million and wanting more
Bradly Chubb $36 million and Austin Jackson $18 million can't get on the fieled
Terron Armstead is officially retired and they are looking at starting Patrick Paul rookie LT

Dolphins did the exact opposite of what team building says to do if you want to compete for championships. They traded and paid big money for players that were reaching the end of their peak career. CB's after the age of 30 see a decent drop off in production. Ramsey is still good, but not for the contract he has at this point. Same with Hill being 31 and a speedster. Speed seems to hit a wall after about 28 and he is 31. He is a freak athlete but wouldn't surprise me if we see him struggle to stay healthy and ever produce at the level he was. They traded and paid Chubb huge money who has proven to be injury prone and is once again coming off injury.

They thought they had a small Super Bowl window and went all in, but along the way they tried to take shortcuts to microwave the situation. In the NFL you cannot take shortcuts to win.

 

[Dude]

Dolphins did the exact opposite of what team building says to do if you want to compete for championships. They traded and paid big money for players that were reaching the end of their peak career. CB's after the age of 30 see a decent drop off in production. Ramsey is still good, but not for the contract he has at this point. Same with Hill being 31 and a speedster. Speed seems to hit a wall after about 28 and he is 31. He is a freak athlete but wouldn't surprise me if we see him struggle to stay healthy and ever produce at the level he was. They traded and paid Chubb huge money who has proven to be injury prone and is once again coming off injury.

They thought they had a small Super Bowl window and went all in, but along the way they tried to take shortcuts to microwave the situation. In the NFL you cannot take shortcuts to win.

Also, the Dolphins have been looking for a great HC/QB combo for decades, dating back to Marino. Ownership has played a big role in the Dolphin demise. They couldn’t do it with Marino and Jimmy, thanks in large part to the owner in those days.