Starlin Castro and the Quest for 3000 Hits

[PolarVortex]

Yeah, I'm doing another one of these.

At first glance, Castro getting to 3000 career hits seems even less reasonable than Jay Bruce getting to 500 homeruns. I mean, Castro isn't even halfway there yet. But before you dismiss the notion, consider the math.

Castro goes into the 2018 season as a 28-year-old. He has 1280 career hits. His 162-game average is 180 hits. That is an average of 1.11111111 hits per game. Let's say he maintains that pace through age 37 (ten years from now). In those 10 years let's say he averages 150 games played per year. This is not an unreasonable assumption given his previous history of relatively good health.

So, the math:
10 years at 150 games a year = 1500 games
1500 games x 1.11111 hits per game =1667 hits.
1667 hits + 1280 = 2947 hits.

So, as of now, he is certainly on pace to get to 3000 hits. Doesn't mean he will get there, but he is certainly on pace.

 

[JohnU]

Obviously, he needs playing time to get that chance.
As I remember, he was touted as a pretty special player at one time.

 

[navamind]

there's also the matter of him sticking around long enough to do so. he has to hit pretty well in order to have any real value given his defense sucks. He's hit pretty well for a middle infielder, but even then you're talking a career 98 OPS+. Three of his last five seasons have been below that (including a 73 OPS+ in 2013 and 84 OPS+ in 2015).

 

[PolarVortex]

Other players with a chance to reach 3000 hits:
Robinson Cano. 2376 hits, 34 years old. Probably makes it. Mariner ownership is praying he makes it, otherwise the last $150 million of that contract is gonna look pretty ugly.

Nick Markakis. 2052 hits, 33 years old. He'll make it if he continues to get an opportunity to start. But probably won't get the opportunity.

Justin Upton. 1467 hits, 29 years old. Doubtful.

Elvis Andrus. 1463 hits, 28 years old. Keeps getting better with age. He has a real chance.

Jose Altuve 1250 hits, 27 years old. He'll get there.

Mike Trout. 1040 hits, 25 years old. Maybe. But league pitchers ultimately may give up trying to get him out and just walk him all the time, kinda like they did with Barry Bonds.

 

[StanMarsh51]

there's also the matter of him sticking around long enough to do so. he has to hit pretty well in order to have any real value given his defense sucks. He's hit pretty well for a middle infielder, but even then you're talking a career 98 OPS+. Three of his last five seasons have been below that (including a 73 OPS+ in 2013 and 84 OPS+ in 2015).

Hitting-wise he seems comparable to Edgar Renteria, who had about 1400 hits at age 28....And Renteria retired at age 35 with 2300 hits (he might've been able to hang on for a few more years but likely would've been a backup).

 

[tducey]

Think Castro falls short, 2500 hits may happen but I doubt he gets 3000.

 

[Cedrique]

When do we start the Rhys Hoskins quest for 800 HRs ? That's when I start to get interested

 

[PolarVortex]

When do we start the Rhys Hoskins quest for 800 HRs ? That's when I start to get interested

Right after Dominic Brown's quest for 600 homeruns and Maikel Franco's quest for 2000 RBI.

 

[JohnU]

I think Joey Votto will end up somewhere around 2,700 if he wants.
His walk numbers obviously cut down on the number of hits.
But I can see another 1,200 hits from him.

 

[Cyder]

Yeah, I'm doing another one of these.

At first glance, Castro getting to 3000 career hits seems even less reasonable than Jay Bruce getting to 500 homeruns. I mean, Castro isn't even halfway there yet. But before you dismiss the notion, consider the math.

Castro goes into the 2018 season as a 28-year-old. He has 1280 career hits. His 162-game average is 180 hits. That is an average of 1.11111111 hits per game. Let's say he maintains that pace through age 37 (ten years from now). In those 10 years let's say he averages 150 games played per year. This is not an unreasonable assumption given his previous history of relatively good health.

So, the math:
10 years at 150 games a year = 1500 games
1500 games x 1.11111 hits per game =1667 hits.
1667 hits + 1280 = 2947 hits.

So, as of now, he is certainly on pace to get to 3000 hits. Doesn't mean he will get there, but he is certainly on pace.

He won't get there. His average hits per season have already gone down fro his first couple of years and one would have to think it will diminish further with age.

 

[JohnU]

He won't get there. His average hits per season have already gone down fro his first couple of years and one would have to think it will diminish further with age.

Which is kind of what happens to all players, and it's why we hold such career achievements in high esteem. Longevity, the ability to adapt and stay on the field. 3,000 hits is a really hard number to reach.

 

[navamind]

I think Joey Votto will end up somewhere around 2,700 if he wants.
His walk numbers obviously cut down on the number of hits.
But I can see another 1,200 hits from him.

I think 2700 is pretty likely for him. He's posted strong batting averages throughout his career (save for an injury-riddled 2014) and has an excellent eye to boot. I don't know how long he'll remain one of the best hitters in the league, but I think his bat should age pretty gracefully.

 

[JohnU]

I think 2700 is pretty likely for him. He's posted strong batting averages throughout his career (save for an injury-riddled 2014) and has an excellent eye to boot. I don't know how long he'll remain one of the best hitters in the league, but I think his bat should age pretty gracefully.

Votto is also hampered by not having been in very good lineups over the last 3 or 4 years. The Reds are a little more potent at the moment but man ... that leadoff position is killing Votto.

 

[broncosmitty]

He won't get there. His average hits per season have already gone down fro his first couple of years and one would have to think it will diminish further with age.

He hit leadoff and second a lot his first three or four seasons.


What'd he bat this past season, fifth?


2500 would surprise me. Dude doesn't take any walks. He will struggle to have a .300 OBP by his early thirties, then he's done playing.

 

[broncosmitty]

Shit, dude prolly doesn't get to 2K.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

He hit leadoff and second a lot his first three or four seasons.


What'd he bat this past season, fifth?


2500 would surprise me. Dude doesn't take any walks. He will struggle to have a .300 OBP by his early thirties, then he's done playing.

he doesn't take walks, but walks is often a skill that players grow into... I mean, if your not as good of a hitter as you once were, you kind of have to take more walks to stay in the league... players know this, and adjust... Not saying he will, but I wouldn't be surprised for him to get better at taking pitches...



@PolarVortex I really don't understand the point of these threads... you are pretty much choosing players that have no realistic chance of breaking these milestones... so is the ultimate point trying to knock the milestone, or just trying to spark discussion about who is on-pace but will almost definitely not reach it...

 

[PolarVortex]

he doesn't take walks, but walks is often a skill that players grow into... I mean, if your not as good of a hitter as you once were, you kind of have to take more walks to stay in the league... players know this, and adjust... Not saying he will, but I wouldn't be surprised for him to get better at taking pitches...



@PolarVortex I really don't understand the point of these threads... you are pretty much choosing players that have no realistic chance of breaking these milestones... so is the ultimate point trying to knock the milestone, or just trying to spark discussion about who is on-pace but will almost definitely not reach it...

I don't care if you don't understand the point. In spite of your apparent dis approval of them, they generate discussion. If you aren't interested in sports discussion, maybe you can go to the entertainment threads and gossip about celebrities?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't care if you don't understand the point. In spite of your apparent dis approval of them, they generate discussion. If you aren't interested in sports discussion, maybe you can go to the entertainment threads and gossip about celebrities?

no, I am not trying to be confrontational... just want to know the point in to what to debate about...

 

[JohnU]

no, I am not trying to be confrontational... just want to know the point in to what to debate about...

A little of this is useful to me because it lets me look up a player's numbers and, depending on how much I care, to compare them to others of his era or other eras. It's marginally interesting, way less vitriol than the stupid politics pages.
So I am for this sort of thread, so long as it's not totally ridiculous.
In Castro's case, we are looking at a guy who might have been on the cusp of a HOF career at one point.
Now, not so much.

 

[PolarVortex]

A little of this is useful to me because it lets me look up a player's numbers and, depending on how much I care, to compare them to others of his era or other eras. It's marginally interesting, way less vitriol than the stupid politics pages.
So I am for this sort of thread, so long as it's not totally ridiculous.
In Castro's case, we are looking at a guy who might have been on the cusp of a HOF career at one point.
Now, not so much.

He's still young enough to get back on track and last year was actually one of his better years. He ony played 112 game so he missed nearly a third of the season and still scored 66 runs and drove in 63. If you project him to 155 games (which is not unreasonable considered he had played 151+ games in 5 of the previous 6 seasons), he would have had career highs in runs scored, RBI, and HR while hitting .300.

But also, the guy who said Castro's average hits per game is inflated by high numbers earlier in his career, has a valid point and one that I had not previously considered.