Spring Training 2012

[Mays-Fan]

So true.

Hate to sound like Kawakami, but The Giants might need to just eat that $46 million and move on.

I was wondering on another thread what Zito might take to leave now. He is eventually owed the $46 million. Would he take $30 million now to move on? $35 million? Would we even be allowed to do that?

 

[MarcoPolo]

I was wondering on another thread what Zito might take to leave now. He is eventually owed the $46 million. Would he take $30 million now to move on? $35 million? Would we even be allowed to do that?

The player's union would never allow that (as shown by refusal to let A-Rod move to Boston, for less guaranteed money than his original Texas contract).

But they can't stop Zito from retiring (in which case he isn't owned a cent). But I don't expect Zito to retire.

 

[msgkings322]

The player's union would never allow that (as shown by refusal to let A-Rod move to Boston, for less guaranteed money than his original Texas contract).

But they can't stop Zito from retiring (in which case he isn't owned a cent). But I don't expect Zito to retire.

Finalist for understatement of the year.

:sad:

 

[gp956]

I took Posey and Melky on my fantasy team...what are yall's expectations for them this year?

Posey: .281/.370/.410
130 games. power and BA will be down as his legs recover, obp will be up .

Cabrera: .268/.320/.400
153 games. AT&T effect, and NL West pitching will keep his numbers lower than expectations.

 

[mistgl]

The player's union would never allow that (as shown by refusal to let A-Rod move to Boston, for less guaranteed money than his original Texas contract).

But they can't stop Zito from retiring (in which case he isn't owned a cent). But I don't expect Zito to retire.

They would have a shit fit over it though. A player leaving a mega contract due to bad performance would set a precedent I'm sure they would like to avoid. It completely negates the purpose of guaranteed contracts, something they fought tooth and nail for.

McGwire doesn't count! They let that dude walk away peer pressure free because of all the steroid scandal.

As for trying to buy Zito out, why would he do that? He's guaranteed the money, why take less? If I was him I'd take every cent of it with a smile on my face. His contract does not hold this team back to the extent that the FO bitches about.

 

[gp956]

They would have a shit fit over it though. A player leaving a mega contract due to bad performance would set a precedent I'm sure they would like to avoid. It completely negates the purpose of guaranteed contracts, something they fought tooth and nail for.

McGwire doesn't count! They let that dude walk away peer pressure free because of all the steroid scandal.

As for trying to buy Zito out, why would he do that? He's guaranteed the money, why take less? If I was him I'd take every cent of it with a smile on my face. His contract does not hold this team back to the extent that the FO bitches about.

We can imagine that continuing to do all the things a Major League player is required to do represents an opportunity cost. Under that scenario, there is no doubt that there is a point where the value Zito places on that cost is equal to the last X amount of dollars he is due, and that would set the point at which he is just indifferent to taking a buyout and walking away now.

However, it could be that Zito loves being a major leaguer, and therefore there is no net opportunity cost in playing the game. Yet, he could still be induced to walk away; you'd have to postulate there is some other opportunity he is sacrificing, and do the same thought experiment as above to determine the value he places on pursuing that opportunity immediately to set the buyout point.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here is my final prediction for the Opening Day 25 man:

Pitchers (12):

Timmeh
Cainer
Bum
Zeets
Pen:
Weez
Romolicious
Loogy
Affeldt
Casilla
Mota
Otero
Edlesfen

Catchers:
Posey
Stewart

Infield:
Pablo
Huffer
Stamos
Burriss
Arias
Pill
Theriot

Outfield:
Cabrera
Pagan
Schierholtz
Blanco


Opening Day lineup in Arizona-

Pagan-CF
Cabrera-LF
Sandoval-3B
Posey-C
Huff-1B
Schierholtz-RF
Burriss-2B
Crawford-SS
Lincecum-P

I didn't know Runzler was on the DL, Surkamp is too. I left off Hensley after he left with the injury. When Volgy gets back, Edlesfen down. If Franchez returns, we'll see who goes (my guess Theriot). I wish we could replace Huffer with Belt and Stewart with Chez3, but I don't see it... yet.

 

[Mays-Fan]

We can imagine that continuing to do all the things a Major League player is required to do represents an opportunity cost. Under that scenario, there is no doubt that there is a point where the value Zito places on that cost is equal to the last X amount of dollars he is due, and that would set the point at which he is just indifferent to taking a buyout and walking away now.

However, it could be that Zito loves being a major leaguer, and therefore there is no net opportunity cost in playing the game. Yet, he could still be induced to walk away; you'd have to postulate there is some other opportunity he is sacrificing, and do the same thought experiment as above to determine the value he places on pursuing that opportunity immediately to set the buyout point.

Either that, or we could just make him an offer he can't refuse, for a certified check for $1000.

 

[gp956]

Giants-Reds on mlb.tv free preview, if anyone is interested.

 

[tzill]

Posey: .281/.370/.410
130 games. power and BA will be down as his legs recover, obp will be up .

Cabrera: .268/.320/.400
153 games. AT&T effect, and NL West pitching will keep his numbers lower than expectations.

I'm fairly close to you:

Buster: 132 GP; 292/361/455
Melky: 151 GP; 281/329/421

 

[tzill]

We can imagine that continuing to do all the things a Major League player is required to do represents an opportunity cost. Under that scenario, there is no doubt that there is a point where the value Zito places on that cost is equal to the last X amount of dollars he is due, and that would set the point at which he is just indifferent to taking a buyout and walking away now.

However, it could be that Zito loves being a major leaguer, and therefore there is no net opportunity cost in playing the game. Yet, he could still be induced to walk away; you'd have to postulate there is some other opportunity he is sacrificing, and do the same thought experiment as above to determine the value he places on pursuing that opportunity immediately to set the buyout point.

Yes, but as mentioned there are a couple of opportunity costs associated with retiring. First, the millions he'd leave on the table and second, the shit he'd get from the MLBPA. Tough to gauge how Zeets feels about either cost. Also, the opportunity to return some positive value to the Giants as a player. Very tough to quantify those types of things.

 

[tzill]

Here is my final prediction for the Opening Day 25 man:

Pitchers (12):

Timmeh
Cainer
Bum
Zeets
Pen:
Weez
Romolicious
Loogy
Affeldt
Casilla
Mota
Otero
Edlesfen

Catchers:
Posey
Stewart

Infield:
Pablo
Huffer
Stamos
Burriss
Arias
Pill
Theriot

Outfield:
Cabrera
Pagan
Schierholtz
Blanco


Opening Day lineup in Arizona-

Pagan-CF
Cabrera-LF
Sandoval-3B
Posey-C
Huff-1B
Schierholtz-RF
Burriss-2B
Crawford-SS
Lincecum-P

I didn't know Runzler was on the DL, Surkamp is too. I left off Hensley after he left with the injury. When Volgy gets back, Edlesfen down. If Franchez returns, we'll see who goes (my guess Theriot). I wish we could replace Huffer with Belt and Stewart with Chez3, but I don't see it... yet.

Remove Edlefsen and add Hensley and I think you have the 25 right. Clay's injury is considered minor, the MRI was negative, and he'll pitch in a day or two.

OGC has a great article about risk mitigation and why Chez3 and Belt will head to Frenso, and why that makes good sense:

obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2012 Giants: Late Spring Rosterbation

 

[gp956]

Yes, but as mentioned there are a couple of opportunity costs associated with retiring. First, the millions he'd leave on the table and second, the shit he'd get from the MLBPA. Tough to gauge how Zeets feels about either cost. Also, the opportunity to return some positive value to the Giants as a player. Very tough to quantify those types of things.

What's up with your reading comprehension lately?

 

[gp956]

Giants-Reds on mlb.tv free preview, if anyone is interested.

Really sloppy game by the Giants. As Krukow pointed out - they just want to get out of dodge.

 

[tzill]

What's up with your reading comprehension lately?

I think I got what you were saying and simply looking at the same analysis as applied to retiring.

At least, that's what I was going for.

 

[tzill]

Really sloppy game by the Giants. As Krukow pointed out - they just want to get out of dodge.

I'm tired of ST. Those guys have to be brutally fatigued of it.

 

[mistgl]

Yes, but as mentioned there are a couple of opportunity costs associated with retiring. First, the millions he'd leave on the table and second, the shit he'd get from the MLBPA. Tough to gauge how Zeets feels about either cost. Also, the opportunity to return some positive value to the Giants as a player. Very tough to quantify those types of things.

Personally, I think he values $46 mil over $30 mil or w/e the proposed buyout was.

And, as Tzill said, I think he wants to try (emphasis on the word try) to prove he has value left as a major league player. This was his dream, and as easy as it is for us to bitch about the level of suck he's spiraled into, it can be so easy as just walking away.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Remove Edlefsen and add Hensley and I think you have the 25 right. Clay's injury is considered minor, the MRI was negative, and he'll pitch in a day or two.

OGC has a great article about risk mitigation and why Chez3 and Belt will head to Frenso, and why that makes good sense:

obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2012 Giants: Late Spring Rosterbation

That blogger is a genius, making all the right calls about Belt, H Sanchez, Blanco, and Burriss ...

 

[gp956]

That blogger is a genius, making all the right calls about Belt, H Sanchez, Blanco, and Burriss ...

Really?

He writes this:

Besides, I think Stewart is more than adequate as backup. The main call for him to start at catcher, at least initially, is when Posey gets moved to 1B for a start, pushing Huff either out or to LF (where then Schierholtz is out). That works best with a LH starter going, and last season Stewart hit .295/.392/.409/.801 against LHP and he is 278/.371/.407/.778 lifetime.

LIFETIME, Stewart has 54 at-bats against lefties. Laughably small sample size. But worse, he compounds this error by later writing:

Or what if Posey is struggling as well, or worse, injured again? Keeping only Sanchez most probably means we lost Stewart to waivers, who not only is good defensively but good hitting against LHP?

The highly speculative assumption based on sss bias is now treated as fact.

then he writes this:

So we probably have Whiteside as our starter and Jackson Williams as our backup catcher, as they send Sanchez down to AAA to figure out his bat. Do we really need another Bocock moment?

Can you say slippery slope? I stopped reading the article at that point. I've read OCG in the past, he knows the game well enough, and his basic facts are sound, but he needs help in arguing a point without slipping into every logical fallacy known to man. <---- Yes, intentional hyperbole.

 

[MarcoPolo]

That blogger is a genius, making all the right calls about Belt, H Sanchez, Blanco, and Burriss ...

The was a hint that I didn't want anybody being an HF.