SportsHoopla Top 25 Week 6 discussion

[uncfan103]

An educated guess is better than no guess at all.

Was it an educated guess that Alabama would beat ULM? Was it bad? Nope. What would be bad? Pretending that you didn't know what the outcome of the games would be and as if it was no good.

The amount of errors in those educated guesses are much smaller than the errors you are purposely creating by ignoring it. It is more ignorant to believe all teams are equal to start the season than it was to believe Auburn to be a top25 team. And what goes ignored in all the focus on teams like Auburn, Oregon and such who may have been over-ranked are all the teams that weren't that far off and were generally good. Which far outweighed the errors, and to which the methods being used by some created even bigger errors in.

Where the hell do you think the stats come from? They come from the games. The games are the only things that matter. Literally.

Why would you guess the future when you know the past and could rank teams just based on things that are 100% in the past. You've convinced me to use more statistics next week when I do my polls because I'm a fan of sabermetrics in baseball, and I like statistics, but I can't imagine possibly being convinced to make educated guesses. The predictions thread jerms does every week shows how bad I am at that.

 

[4down20]

Why would you guess the future when you know the past and could rank teams just based on things that are 100% in the past. You've convinced me to use more statistics next week when I do my polls because I'm a fan of sabermetrics in baseball, and I like statistics, but I can't imagine possibly being convinced to make educated guesses. The predictions thread jerms does every week shows how bad I am at that.

Applying the patterns of the past is how you predict the future.

 

[rmilia1]

I guess that is where you lose me 4D. The reason we do rankings every week is because new results happen every week. There is no point in guessing who is going to win the games because they'll all get played. I don't even see the point in doing that especially if you lose the ability to recognize what actually occurred from what you think should have happened

 

[4down20]

I guess that is where you lose me 4D. The reason we do rankings every week is because new results happen every week. There is no point in guessing who is going to win the games because they'll all get played. I don't even see the point in doing that especially if you lose the ability to recognize what actually occurred from what you think should have happened

Nobody is forgetting what actually occurred. You're just taking what occurred, and applying the most likely scenario for the future.

They will play the games next week, and I'll take into account what just occurred and I'll update what I think is going to happen next.

Based on the games so far, I do not think it's difficult to predict Ole Miss is going to beat New Mexico St this weekend. Like at all. I think it would be dumber of me to pretend that I didn't know Ole Miss was going to beat New Mexico St, because I know Ole Miss is going to beat New Mexico St.

If New Mexico St wins? I adjust what I think of Ole Miss and New Mexico St, as does everyone else - yourself included and do the best I can the next week.

Some games are obviously harder, but the overwhelming majority of the time - not wrong.

I did it with my computer rankings where it was right about 75% of the time in it's predictions because the results were more accurate, and that is the bottom line/goal. The movement in the rankings made more sense, the crazy knee jerk reactions, especially early in the season were minimized(which were often times wrong reactions).

I thought it embarrassing and a sign the formula was bad to see some lower tier team from a conference get ranked high by playing a bunch of cupcakes only to watch them get spanked by teams that may have had worse records or results later in the year - which is completely avoidable if you understand - hey that team is going to get spanked real soon here.

Furthermore, as the year progresses it's less prediction and more based on the past while the future predictions generally become more accurate during that time. This doesn't generally show up in the correct % of the weeks, as the games themselves become more difficult to predict as a whole due to opponents, but they are actually more accurate.

 

[The Crimson King]

Nobody is forgetting what actually occurred. You're just taking what occurred, and applying the most likely scenario for the future.

They will play the games next week, and I'll take into account what just occurred and I'll update what I think is going to happen next.

Based on the games so far, I do not think it's difficult to predict Ole Miss is going to beat New Mexico St this weekend. Like at all. I think it would be dumber of me to pretend that I didn't know Ole Miss was going to beat New Mexico St, because I know Ole Miss is going to beat New Mexico St.

If New Mexico St wins? I adjust what I think of Ole Miss and New Mexico St, as does everyone else - yourself included and do the best I can the next week.

Some games are obviously harder, but the overwhelming majority of the time - not wrong.

I did it with my computer rankings where it was right about 75% of the time in it's predictions because the results were more accurate, and that is the bottom line/goal. The movement in the rankings made more sense, the crazy knee jerk reactions, especially early in the season were minimized(which were often times wrong reactions).

I thought it embarrassing and a sign the formula was bad to see some lower tier team from a conference get ranked high by playing a bunch of cupcakes only to watch them get spanked by teams that may have had worse records or results later in the year - which is completely avoidable if you understand - hey that team is going to get spanked real soon here.

Furthermore, as the year progresses it's less prediction and more based on the past while the future predictions generally become more accurate during that time. This doesn't generally show up in the correct % of the weeks, as the games themselves become more difficult to predict as a whole due to opponents, but they are actually more accurate.

You must make millions betting on college football games

 

[4down20]

You must make millions betting on college football games

 

[The Crimson King]

View attachment 37644

Got the poll up go check it out

 

[The Crimson King]

Just a heads up. I didn't count the poll of the person that joined and voted with their first post yesterday. Seemed kinda shady. Is that cool with everyone?

 

[dennis580]

Just a heads up. I didn't count the poll of the person that joined and voted with their first post yesterday. Seemed kinda shady. Is that cool with everyone?

Hmm I dont have a problem including his poll, but you do the Sportshoopla Poll. So whatever you think is best for credibility of the poll.

 

[The Crimson King]

Hmm I dont have a problem including his poll, but you do the Sportshoopla Poll. So whatever you think is best for credibility of the poll.

They created an account, voted, and haven't been back.....probably 4down20

 

[7Samurai13]

They created an account, voted, and haven't been back.....probably 4down20

Probably not, he doesn't have Alabama #1 because on the field results mean absolutely nothing and should be thrown out but what he thinks should happen based on SoS is all that should be considered.

 

[4down20]

 

[uncfan103]

Nobody is forgetting what actually occurred. You're just taking what occurred, and applying the most likely scenario for the future.

They will play the games next week, and I'll take into account what just occurred and I'll update what I think is going to happen next.

Based on the games so far, I do not think it's difficult to predict Ole Miss is going to beat New Mexico St this weekend. Like at all. I think it would be dumber of me to pretend that I didn't know Ole Miss was going to beat New Mexico St, because I know Ole Miss is going to beat New Mexico St.

If New Mexico St wins? I adjust what I think of Ole Miss and New Mexico St, as does everyone else - yourself included and do the best I can the next week.

Some games are obviously harder, but the overwhelming majority of the time - not wrong.

I did it with my computer rankings where it was right about 75% of the time in it's predictions because the results were more accurate, and that is the bottom line/goal. The movement in the rankings made more sense, the crazy knee jerk reactions, especially early in the season were minimized(which were often times wrong reactions).

I thought it embarrassing and a sign the formula was bad to see some lower tier team from a conference get ranked high by playing a bunch of cupcakes only to watch them get spanked by teams that may have had worse records or results later in the year - which is completely avoidable if you understand - hey that team is going to get spanked real soon here.

Furthermore, as the year progresses it's less prediction and more based on the past while the future predictions generally become more accurate during that time. This doesn't generally show up in the correct % of the weeks, as the games themselves become more difficult to predict as a whole due to opponents, but they are actually more accurate.

It's not difficult to predict it. But you're predicting the entire season for everyone. That is difficult. Especially when if its a week 6 poll and could value performance and rank teams that have proven the most and adjust based on what actually happens instead of adjusting after every week of mistakes. I think it's more fair to reward teams for winning than punish them for losing games they haven't lost when I could just wait for them to lose. Otherwise it shows the games they've won are meaningless.


Also, if you look at Jerms' thread you'll see people, at least this year, are doing a little better than the computer did in the past. That's why I think it's best to eliminate guesswork and use what has happened up to this point. But, that's my opinion. there's no right/wrong.

 

[4down20]

It's not difficult to predict it. But you're predicting the entire season for everyone. That is difficult. Especially when if its a week 6 poll and could value performance and rank teams that have proven the most and adjust based on what actually happens instead of adjusting after every week of mistakes. I think it's more fair to reward teams for winning than punish them for losing games they haven't lost when I could just wait for them to lose. Otherwise it shows the games they've won are meaningless.


Also, if you look at Jerms' thread you'll see people, at least this year, are doing a little better than the computer did in the past. That's why I think it's best to eliminate guesswork and use what has happened up to this point. But, that's my opinion. there's no right/wrong.

I don't care if you predict the future games or not. I'm just telling you why I did/do it.

The only thing that annoys me is people playing ignorant when it comes to team strength.

 

[uncfan103]

I don't care if you predict the future games or not. I'm just telling you why I did/do it.

The only thing that annoys me is people playing ignorant when it comes to team strength.

Again, nobody is trying to play ignorant. It's just some people reward teams for their seasons others make assumptions or ignore games. Northwesterns team strength doesn't and should directly correlate to their ranking in my rankings because that's not my intent. You can call it ignorant, but it's the best I can do to get a somewhat logical poll that I can defend.

 

[Deep Creek]

Applying the patterns of the past is how you predict the future.

Then why does my stock broker send me disclaimers that state "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results"? j/k

 

[ericd7633]

So, the ESPN FPI is the holy grail?

FWIW MTSU is also ahead in Sagarin.

 

[rmilia1]

MTSU is ahead of Minnesota in the computers because they have 2 huge blowout wins over 2 crap teams in Charlotte and Jackson St. They have a comparable schedule to Minnesota and a worse record. Computers use MOV so 2 50 plus point wins helps a lot especially through only 5 weeks. If anyone seriously thinks Minnesota wouldn't be at LEAST 2-3 playing the Blue Raiders schedule they're nuts. Likely the Gophers would be 3-2 or 4-1

 

[uncfan103]

MTSU is ahead of Minnesota in the computers because they have 2 huge blowout wins over 2 crap teams in Charlotte and Jackson St. They have a comparable schedule to Minnesota and a worse record. Computers use MOV so 2 50 plus point wins helps a lot especially through only 5 weeks. If anyone seriously thinks Minnesota wouldn't be at LEAST 2-3 playing the Blue Raiders schedule they're nuts. Likely the Gophers would be 3-2 or 4-1

That makes sense. I was trying to figure out why the computers love UNC and it makes sense that it's because they're good when they play teams that can't compete with them athletically.

That being said, Minnesota could very possibly be 2-3 with that schedule.

 

[rmilia1]

That makes sense. I was trying to figure out why the computers love UNC and it makes sense that it's because they're good when they play teams that can't compete with them athletically.

That being said, Minnesota could very possibly be 2-3 with that schedule.

Could be. But I'm guessing 3-2. Either way I was just explain why the computer situation was what it is