SportsHoopla Preseason Top 25 discussion thread

[ericd7633]

I think everybody is entitled on how to construct their own preseason poll. It's their own opinion. I will say I don't think it's ideal to predict what each teams record will be and make that the basis of your poll. College football right now is so unbalanced with scheduling that a team could be better than another even with a worse record. Strength of schedule should be a huge factor in determining ranking. For example, I'd argue that 5-7 Utah was every bit as good as 11-1 Fresno State taking into account wins and quality wins. But Utah never sniffed the top 25 and Fresno State got all the way up to 13.

I know that may not be the best example because it's a power 5 team against a non power 5 team. But as another example say LSU beats Wisconsin, but then losses to Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss. So they finish 9-3. And say Iowa finishes 11-1 and their only loss is to Wisconsin. Who's the better team under that scenario? I'd say LSU but I'd have a feeling the polls would say Iowa. And IMO that's dumb.

 

[occupant]

This is what I find interesting.

So Texas Tech, that lost their last 5 games and QB, is higher ranked in your poll than a Texas team, that nearly won the conference?

The lack of consistency in your train of thought is amazing.

FACT: They lost 5 of their last 6 beating a very solid Arizona St team in their bowl game (they won their bowl game, unlike the horns of dong).

FACT: The QB that ended the last half of the season is still there, he's a Sophmore.
B. Mayfield 218 340 2315 12
D. Webb 198 320 2315 16

Who the fuck did they lose to in 5 of their last 6?

texico donghorns will suck this year and will be lucky to win any games or even make their way off the bus in an orderly fashion without tripping over each other's suck.

Hint: TTU will only lose to 2 or 3 of those 5 this year.

 

[starbigd]

FACT: They lost 5 of their last 6 beating a very solid Arizona St team in their bowl game (they won their bowl game, unlike the horns of dong).

FACT: The QB that ended the last half of the season is still there, he's a Sophmore.
B. Mayfield 218 340 2315 12
D. Webb 198 320 2315 16

Who the fuck did they lose to in 5 of their last 6?

texico donghorns will suck this year and will be lucky to win any games or even make their way off the bus in an orderly fashion without tripping over each other's suck.

Hint: TTU will only lose to 2 or 3 of those 5 this year.

LOL if you say so.

Tech will suck again, as they ALWAYS do. And your facts leave out Texas beat Tech, even when we were 5-7.......so yeah, your prognosticating is pretty poor by your own stated standards.

Good luck with that......you will clearly need it.

 

[4down20]

You still are missing the fact that Fresno's ranking didn't rise exponentially when it was clear Boise was down. People thought Boise was better than Fresno in the preseason. After they got walloped, that changed. People thought Fresno was better than Boise and everyone else on their schedule. They were favored to go undefeated. If you project out based on schedule, how do you explain a team that was projected by most to go 12-0 being unranked? You still can't.

Here are Fresno's projected preseason spreads. As you can see, they are favored in 11 games. And as for Boise, they didn't lose between Week 1 and the Fresno game. Fresno played one game, a 16 point win over an FCS team. Boise beat UT Martin by 49 and Air Force by 20. We know that Fresno was -3.5 on gameday. Unless you are saying Boise was favored after losing to Washington, but Fresno's win over Cal Poly pushed them up 4 points compared to Boise's bigger wins over better teams (which is obviously ridiculous), Fresno was favored.

I've already addressed everything you've said here.

Uh, it's called strength of schedule, the reason they only rose to #13 total even after being undefeated. And lol at giving a link to 1 guys predictions before the start of the year as to mean that every voter in college football and everyone in general just thought they would go undefeated.

 

[Smart]

I've already addressed everything you've said here.

Uh, it's called strength of schedule, the reason they only rose to #13 total even after being undefeated.

You still don't get it. The question isn't "why did they only rise to #13"? That's an easy question to answer. All indications were that they weren't that good, yes, based on their weak SOS and the fact that they were less than stellar in wins. (And you should check my poll...I don't think Fresno ever cracked my top 20).

The question is "how do you explain a team rising 16 places if their initial rank was based on projections and projections had them going undefeated?" And no, you haven't addressed that at all.

My point is that if they started (after Week 1) at #29 because that's where they projected, and they performed exactly like they were projected, shouldn't they be somewhere around #29. You seem to think I am saying Fresno is underranked, but I'm not. I'm saying that if your theory were accurate, they should never have been ranked. Your only answer is "weak SOS," but that has zero application to my point.

And as for the projections, are you serious? Which game wasn't Fresno favored for after Week 1. Please, do tell.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Dammit BoiseStateFan, I don't want anybody voting Duke in the Top 25 Preseason. I want the Blue Devils to fly under everyone's radar again this season. Stop that shit!

I think I ranked them 25th last year, I wanted to be the only one to rank Duke

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

probably should have done this sooner, but I moved all the discussions to it's own thread, hold all discussions here and only post polls in the voting thread

 

[4down20]

You still don't get it. The question isn't "why did they only rise to #13"? That's an easy question to answer. All indications were that they weren't that good, yes, based on their weak SOS and the fact that they were less than stellar in wins. (And you should check my poll...I don't think Fresno ever cracked my top 20).

The question is "how do you explain a team rising 16 places if their initial rank was based on projections and projections had them going undefeated?" And no, you haven't addressed that at all.

My point is that if they started (after Week 1) at #29 because that's where they projected, and they performed exactly like they were projected, shouldn't they be somewhere around #29. You seem to think I am saying Fresno is underranked, but I'm not. I'm saying that if your theory were accurate, they should never have been ranked. Your only answer is "weak SOS," but that has zero application to my point.

And as for the projections, are you serious? Which game wasn't Fresno favored for after Week 1. Please, do tell.

You don't seem to grasp that we are talking about voters, not a formula.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

I'm off until the 18th, so I could do a version of it. I just need to set a deadline for everyone's poll.

if you want to you could do it sir, if you're off until the 18th you could set the deadline to that date since it's close enough to the football season, if you'll have time even when you're no longer off you could set it to the day before the Wednesday that football starts

 

[Smart]

You don't seem to grasp that we are talking about voters, not a formula.

Que? The voters had them at 29. I'm not comparing apples to oranges here. Using your logic, voters projected undefeated Fresno at 29, but they ended up going as high as #13. How is that possible, besides you being wrong?

 

[4down20]

Que? The voters had them at 29. I'm not comparing apples to oranges here. Using your logic, voters projected undefeated Fresno at 29, but they ended up going as high as #13. How is that possible, besides you being wrong?

It's not a consensus. A team isn't ranked #10 because every voter ranked them at exactly #10. Some people likely ranked them #7 or better, and some people likely ranked them #13 or worse. The average at the end was #10.

They are voters, they have mixed feelings. That you believe that every voter had them going undefeated at the start of the year, or after week 1 is just plain crazy talk. They are voters, and the poll ranking is the average from the voters. It's not a formula, there is no sudden 100% change because someone on the internet predicted they would win out on their bad schedule.

For like the 100th time, that is not how it works. You are trying to apply things that you would see in a single formula to a large group of voters and then asking me why the voters didn't move like a formula.

 

[Smart]

I was trying to respond, but I realize Pollspeak was down permanently. What the fuck? How will we have these debates now? This news has seriously wrecked my day.

Your view is what it is. I disagree, and think I've shown pretty clearly how my view is the consensus. Before we end the discussion, though, I would like the record to reflect that I spent pages defending the idea that Wisconsin was overrated. Remember that the next time you try to dismiss my points by calling me a homer.

 

[4down20]

I think everybody is entitled on how to construct their own preseason poll. It's their own opinion. I will say I don't think it's ideal to predict what each teams record will be and make that the basis of your poll. College football right now is so unbalanced with scheduling that a team could be better than another even with a worse record. Strength of schedule should be a huge factor in determining ranking. For example, I'd argue that 5-7 Utah was every bit as good as 11-1 Fresno State taking into account wins and quality wins. But Utah never sniffed the top 25 and Fresno State got all the way up to 13.

I know that may not be the best example because it's a power 5 team against a non power 5 team. But as another example say LSU beats Wisconsin, but then losses to Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss. So they finish 9-3. And say Iowa finishes 11-1 and their only loss is to Wisconsin. Who's the better team under that scenario? I'd say LSU but I'd have a feeling the polls would say Iowa. And IMO that's dumb.

For the record, I do not at all care how you do your poll. Basing them on strength is fine with me. The Fresno vs Utah thing probably isn't that far off. But lets not forget that Fresno didn't finish the season ranked, so it corrected itself.

But as for your 2nd paragraph, that is a matter of how good a team is vs how they actually performed. The best teams don't always win, but who wins or losses those games matter.

Personally I thought Alabama was a better team than Auburn last year. I think even after the loss, if they were to play again the next weekend, Alabama would still be favored to win.

But what happened on the day they played was Auburn played a good game, hung in tough and at the end made the play they needed to for a win. And it doesn't matter at all that Alabama may have been the better team, what matters is when they played, Auburn won. As such, Auburn deserved and was rightfully ranked higher than Alabama, and went on to the SECCG and the NCG. And now we get to blame them for ending the streak.

I could probably say similar things about Alabama and Oklahoma. But it doesn't mean a damn thing. Alabama lost, that is what matters, that is the reality.

They have power rankings for team strength that ignore schedules completely.

 

[4down20]

I was trying to respond, but I realize Pollspeak was down permanently. What the fuck? How will we have these debates now? This news has seriously wrecked my day.

Ok.

Your view is what it is. I disagree, and think I've shown pretty clearly how my view is the consensus. Before we end the discussion, though, I would like the record to reflect that I spent pages defending the idea that Wisconsin was overrated. Remember that the next time you try to dismiss my points by calling me a homer.

Nobody cares.

 

[occupant]

LOL if you say so.

Tech will suck again, as they ALWAYS do. And your facts leave out Texas beat Tech, even when we were 5-7.......so yeah, your prognosticating is pretty poor by your own stated standards.

Good luck with that......you will clearly need it.

texico pulled off a miracle and beat OU too...look where both of those teams ended up?



The ol' WE ARE THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE complex in full display. LOOK AT THAT PLUMAGE!

 

[starbigd]

texico pulled off a miracle and beat OU too...look where both of those teams ended up?



The ol' WE ARE THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE complex in full display. LOOK AT THAT PLUMAGE!

LMAO

Let me get this straight. You post a top 25, that contradicts your own ranking methodology. I point this out, make no statements at all about where Texas should or shouldn't be ranked, but somehow YOUR failure is all about Texas?

 

[occupant]

LMAO

Let me get this straight. You post a top 25, that contradicts your own ranking methodology. I point this out, make no statements at all about where Texas should or shouldn't be ranked, but somehow YOUR failure is all about Texas?

This is what I find interesting.

So Texas Tech, that lost their last 5 games and QB, is higher ranked in your poll than a Texas team, that nearly won the conference?

The lack of consistency in your train of thought is amazing.

 

[starbigd]

Clearly none at all.

Your own STATED method of rankings is why this statement was made. Did I mention WHERE Texas should be ranked? No I did not. I said your rankings don't make sense based on how YOU rank them and this is a perfect example.

Are you really this simple minded, or just very good at trolling?

 

[occupant]

Quote:
Originally Posted by starbigd
LMAO

Let me get this straight. You post a top 25, that contradicts your own ranking methodology. I point this out, make no statements at all about where Texas should or shouldn't be ranked, but somehow YOUR failure is all about Texas?

Quote:
Originally Posted by starbigd View Post
This is what I find interesting.

So Texas Tech, that lost their last 5 games and QB, is higher ranked in your poll than a Texas team, that nearly won the conference?

The lack of consistency in your train of thought is amazing.

 

[starbigd]

Keep whistling.

Show us WHERE I've stated WHERE Texas should be ranked......I'll wait.

Saying that according to YOUR stated methods, Texas should be ranked ahead of Texas Tech......never once did I say they should be specifically at a certain ranking