Smart's Bubble Watch (FINAL, 3/16)

[Smart]

Autobids (25):
Belmont
Harvard
Florida Gulf Coast
Liberty
Gonzaga
James Madison
Valparaiso
Iona
LIU-Brooklyn
Creighton
Davidson
Western Kentucky
South Dakota State
Bucknell
Albany
Kansas
Memphis
Akron
North Carolina A&T
New Mexico
Southern
(TX-Arlington/ NM State Winner)
(Weber State/Montana Winner)
(NW State/ SF Austin Winner)
(UC Irvine/Pacific Winner)

Locks (99%+) (37):
Saint Louis
Miami
Duke
NC State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Georgetown
Syracuse
Louisville
Notre Dame
Pitt
Indiana
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio State
Colorado State
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Marquette
Minnesota
UNLV
Oregon
Missouri
VCU
Oklahoma
Illinois
UCLA
Cal
Butler
Iowa State
Wichita State
Cincinnati
San Diego State
Colorado
St. Mary’s (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (2):
Villanova (+)
Temple

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (2):
Boise State (+)
Ole Miss (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (6):
La Salle (-)
Kentucky (-)
------------------------------------------------ (Projected Cutoff)
Tennessee
Virginia
Middle Tennessee (+)
Iowa

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (2):
Baylor
Alabama (+)

All But Out (1%-10%) (3):
Southern Miss
UMass (+)
Maryland (+)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Arkansas (-)
Arizona State (-)

 

[Smart]

Some Notes:

- All teams that are not locks or autobids are ranked in order.

- There are six additional autobids, but they should not affect the Bubble Watch because all the teams involved are locks except for one.

- That one is Ole Miss. They obviously are guaranteed in the tournament with an Autobid if they win. If they lose but keep it close, they will be "All But In." Even with a blowout loss, they are still most likely in.

- I rarely resurrect "Dones", but Maryland and UMass have a shot to make the tourney.

- There seems to be a general consensus around the first 67 teams. I personally have some doubts about La Salle, but nearly every pundit has them in. I think the other 66 are more or less solidified.

- The hardest decision was the last slot. IMO, Kentucky's quality wins will be enough to move them into the dance. If they decide to go by statistics, Middle Tennessee will make it. I'm not sold on Tennessee and honestly think they have the weakest resume of the "On The Bubble" teams, but I put them high because they are the team most of the experts give the slot to. I think Virginia and Iowa have great resumes (especially if you factor in VA's injuries), but the pundits and momentum seem to be against both.

- All the bubble teams should be very thankful that Memphis gave their all today. If Middle Tennessee doesn't get in, zero autobids will have been stolen from At-Larges, and that is exceedingly rare.

- I will post a 68 team projection with seeds for every team at some point tomorrow before the official bracket comes out where I will give my First Four and Next Four Out.

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

LOL @ the SEC...bullshit that 5 teams will go to the tourney...