SI: Bengals tell Taylor staff changes coming

[cincygrad]

Here is the issue with not getting an OL overhaul: If you want to convince fans in an easy manner that you are working to win, you sign no less than 2 top tier F/A. One OT one OG (or now maybe a C).

Signing just one, and then hoping to luck into Sewell, or another later round pick, is not going to bode well for the fan base. This franchise HAS to protect Burrow. It has no other choice but to. Zero.

You sign 2 F/A and then if Sewell drops, you have depth and are stout at the two biggest positions, plus you hedge on either Sewell or Williams maybe not working out as well as predicted. You don't do that, and you miss on Sewell, you are back in the same boat as this year - and you wasted a year, and an injury, to your franchise player.

I agree. I don't think they have any choice but to wildly overpay the best linemen in FA. A message needs to be sent. And they have a lot of money that will free up as AJ and Geno (among others) leave.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I agree. I don't think they have any choice but to wildly overpay the best linemen in FA. A message needs to be sent. And they have a lot of money that will free up as AJ and Geno (among others) leave.

The Bengals have 27 Free Agents on the list. The vast majority of them will not be back.

2024 NFL Free Agents Tracker

Tracking the status and signings of all 2024 NFL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

Those I expect back, or at least for them to try and re-sign:

CB - Mackensie Alexander
P - Kevin Huber
LB - Josh Bynes (adds veteran leadership to a still young, but good, LB core)
LS - Clark Harris
QB - Brandon Allen
DE - Carl Lawson

I'm sure they will look to re-sign a few more players that on the list, but they would be for depth purposes only. The biggest name on that list is Carl Lawson. I expect him to either be signed or tagged.

In addition - Akins is likely to find a new home. Add in Dunlap is gone and two of the highest paid players on the team are gone, and then you add in AJ Green's $18M...they have more than enough to sign Lawson and still pay for serious upgrades along the OL and DL.

Another big factor, though - what will the actual Salary Cap be? I think that is going to really hurt a lot of teams if it drops like many have been talking about. For example, the Bengals were projected to have around 54M in cap for 2021 based on a 215M cap. If that falls to $175M - The Bengals end up with just 14M in cap space. Of course, a lot of changes through the year would impact that - but it is clearly something to watch. Where that cap lands is going to really make or break a lot of teams that always toe-the line with the cap, and those who are already projected to be wildly over (Steelers for one).

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Here is the issue with not getting an OL overhaul: If you want to convince fans in an easy manner that you are working to win, you sign no less than 2 top tier F/A. One OT one OG (or now maybe a C).

Signing just one, and then hoping to luck into Sewell, or another later round pick, is not going to bode well for the fan base. This franchise HAS to protect Burrow. It has no other choice but to. Zero.

You sign 2 F/A and then if Sewell drops, you have depth and are stout at the two biggest positions, plus you hedge on either Sewell or Williams maybe not working out as well as predicted. You don't do that, and you miss on Sewell, you are back in the same boat as this year - and you wasted a year, and an injury, to your franchise player.

My ideal situation:

We trade down from #5 to say #8 with Carolina so Carolina can draft their QB of the future, we get their 3rd and 6th round picks.

We draft at #8 - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
2nd Round - Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama
4th Round - Robert Jones, OG, Middle Tennessee State

FA we unload on the following dude: Taylor Moton, T, from Carolina. He may be as valuable as 5 years / 85 million.

 

[Cincyfan78]

My ideal situation:

We trade down from #5 to say #8 with Carolina so Carolina can draft their QB of the future, we get their 3rd and 6th round picks.

We draft at #8 - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
2nd Round - Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama
4th Round - Robert Jones, OG, Middle Tennessee State

FA we unload on the following dude: Taylor Moton, T, from Carolina. He may be as valuable as 5 years / 85 million.

Here is the nice thing - OL are going to look at Burrow and Mixon and say "Yeah, I can block for them". But yeah, the Bengals are going to have to pay dearly. They should have no issue with this if they are truly intent on winning, keeping Burrow healthy, and showing everyone they are building to win around Burrow.

 

[cincygrad]

If the cap is seriously cut it will be a great offseason for bargain shopping. Teams close to the cap will have to shed some talent.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

If the cap is seriously cut it will be a great offseason for bargain shopping. Teams close to the cap will have to shed some talent.

That is true, but no one will still have any money to sign anyone. 1 year deals only maybe until that cap balloons again. FA's are not going to want to sign long term for considerably less, they will want 1 year deals only.

 

[Cincyfan78]

For once, the frugal past may help the Bengals here.

They have about $142M in total salary so far for 2021. That's 37 players. They'll obviously need to sign some guys to fill some depth roles and such, but the rumor has been the cap could be down around $175. That would mean roughly $33M in cap space. Except - they can carry forward their 2020 cap space into 2021, which is roughly $11M. So, if the league craps out and bombs the cap, the Bengals would still have roughly $44M to spend.

If the cap inches closer to a middle ground (I don't think it will be $175M) of let's say $183M, or $185M - then obviously the Bengals will end up closer to $55M to spend.

If you figure it will take about $10-12M to fill in backup roles and depth pieces to fill out the 53, that would still leave them a solid chunk of change to sign Lawson, and find some Free Agents. The Bengals are, remarkably, in good shape.

Compare that to the Steelers who are projected to be well over the $200M range with about 35 active players. Not only will they will have to spend $10-15 to build their depth up all the while cutting in other areas to off-set any additions since at $175M they are nearly $30M already over the cap, and even at $185M they are still $20M over the expected cap before they even fill out their roster.

Ben's contract is an albatross around that Franchises' neck right now with an expected cap hit of $41M in 2021. Clearly a restructuring is coming, but at $41M - that's a lot of restructuring to get Ben close to that amount over the next several years, even if he retires. That bonus they are going to pay him in cash up front to spread out over 3-4-5 years will suddenly come due whenever he does hang it up. Not to mention, even if you converted the contract to an extension of 3-4-5 years and gave him a $20M bonus in cash, they would still be at/above the cap with just 35 players. I think this is going to be a very interesting off-season to watch for Pitt.

 

[Cincyfan78]

If you want to go down the rabbit hole of the cap, here is a link. This assumes $175M cap for 2021. The worst situation belongs to the Saints who are nearly $100M over the cap. They have over 60% of their cap tied to 4 players.

2021 NFL Team Salary Cap Tracker

A real-time look at the 2021 salary cap totals for each NFL team, including estimated cap space.

www.spotrac.com

 

[cincygrad]

There will be a ton of "funny money" contracts. The kind the Bengals don't like to write. They will guarantee big money in FA in the form of huge signing bonuses that will be spaced over a large number of years that the player will never reach. It's not a bad move - The cap will go back up so you can certainly carry some dead money in the out years.... Obviously it will restrict you in the future. But if you are a team that will be up against the cap and you want to stay competitive, this temporary reduction is going to force your hand.

I'm not sure how this sort of thing gets negotiated in the league, but if I were an owner (or a player), I'd try to keep the cap flat next year. While revenues are way down, this is only a temporary development. Those revenues can be made up in later years. I'd be worried about writing a bunch of funny deals or screwing with a roster just because of one f'd up year. They really should negotiate this to make it fair and also to make it not insane from a team-building perspective.

 

[Cincyfan78]

There will be a ton of "funny money" contracts. The kind the Bengals don't like to write. They will guarantee big money in FA in the form of huge signing bonuses that will be spaced over a large number of years that the player will never reach. It's not a bad move - The cap will go back up so you can certainly carry some dead money in the out years.... Obviously it will restrict you in the future. But if you are a team that will be up against the cap and you want to stay competitive, this temporary reduction is going to force your hand.

I'm not sure how this sort of thing gets negotiated in the league, but if I were an owner (or a player), I'd try to keep the cap flat next year. While revenues are way down, this is only a temporary development. Those revenues can be made up in later years. I'd be worried about writing a bunch of funny deals or screwing with a roster just because of one f'd up year. They really should negotiate this to make it fair and also to make it not insane from a team-building perspective.

I don't see how you keep it flat with revenue down. I mean, I just don't see the owners agreeing to that, and I think the cap is based on revenue anyway - isn't' there a formula for how it is set? If that is the case, then it will be what it will be. I don't see anyone agreeing to pay more when they are getting (or got) less.

Yes, there will be a lot of funny money, but there's no assurance that the cap will rocket back up to market. If it drops to $185, and revenue is slow to return - you might not get to the $210-215M mark for another 3-4 years. That's a lot of rolling funny money. Sure, there will be teams that do that, and teams that already have (look at the bottom of that cap list, holy cow), but at some point the bill comes due. And for a few of those franchises, they are closer than not to coming due (New Orleans with Brees and Pittsburgh with Ben).