Should the Mariners sell? Arguments for and against

[seahawksfan234]

We are currently 7 games under .500. Last year, it took 88 wins to make the playoffs. We would need to go 64-43 the rest of the way to hit that number.

Argument for not selling at the trade deadline:
The Mariners have already invested too much in winning now. Nelson Cruz is hitting at an MVP level, he's not going to be this good next year. Seldom do you land a player that is hitting at his level. Also, adding Trumbo would've been pointless if you're not trying to win now. On paper, this team has the talent to go 64-43 the rest of the way. Do I think that will happen? I couldn't tell you. With the way the team has been playing, the pessimism in me wants to say no. But I look at some of the players in our lineup and compare it to our offensive production and it just doesn't make sense. Logically I have to assume something will turn around. All these one run games we've lost, if something had just gone in the Mariners favor in those games, perhaps our record would look a lot different. They've been competitive, just losing by a hair. Lastly, it's not like we have even got anything worth a damn in the past selling our players. Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, Doug Fister, Jarrod Washburn, none of them landed anything worth shit.

Argument for selling:
The team looks bad right now. Robinson Cano looks lost. Nelson Cruz is 34 and injury prone, his value won't be higher than it is right now. I'll happily admit that it looks like I was wrong with my prediction of roughly 25 HRs and a .260-.270 BA from him - but that still could be a reality either next year or the year after that. There is a strong argument that we won't be able to turn it around, and that 64-43 the rest of the way will be too difficult.

What does everyone think? Should we continue to try to win now? Or sell our pieces and start rebuilding again? I know it's obvious what the franchise is, and will continue to do, but I'm curious to see if anyone thinks we should sell.

 

[wazzu31]

There aren't any real pro's, the only way they can sell to help the organization is to give up on Felix, Seager, Walker and Paxton. Everyone else they wouldn't get squat for. As well as Cruz is playing, no team is going to give up a top 5 prospect for him with his contract.

Jack has put himself into a corner where there isn't squat to make this organization good. Sure sell the "future" for this year, but it still leaves next year not having 1 single outfielder, needing rotation help...basically spending $40 plus million just to field a decent roster. I'm all for selling the future if it would bring a WS ring (which was last year) but there isn't a realistic chance that they could get enough in return to overcome the holes in this team.

Last year, they needed one guy like Cruz, this year they need starter help, bullpen help, entire outfield help, SS help, 2B help, backup catcher help let alone managerial help.

 

[seahawksfan234]

If they had Cruz last year they would've made a very deep run into the playoffs.

 

[johnfree63]

Still too early to sell. If they wait until closer to the deadline, the return should be better anyway. Just look at the Trumbo deal. It didn't really cost the M's that much to acquire him. Where as last year around the deadline the Tigers gave up a lot for David Price.

 

[wazzu31]

If they had Cruz last year they would've made a very deep run into the playoffs.

They would've won the WS last year had they had Cruz with how they were pitching. Their bullpen doesn't get burned out in September the way it did last year if they had a minimum of a 30 HR and 80 RBI type guy.

I say sell but Cano and Cruz's contracts it seems highly unlikely they would sell the one piece they need to in order to make the franchise viable in the future (Felix) With the way the organization has been the past decade there has been zero need for an ace, which everyone loves Felix but he is more valuable in a trade than watching him every 5 days and Jack's twice getting closers. Replace Felix with Cruz last year and the Mariners are in the postseason, probably not winning it all but in the post season. The A's and Royals dared Seattle to take either wildcard in September last year but Lloyd's lineup and odd handling of the staff kept them from winning.

 

[NWinAZ]

I will say the same thing I said about the team in Beltre's last year in 2009. They fooled themselves in believing they were a playoff contender and kept a few valuable trade pieces and got nothing in return.

Beltre
Lopez
Aardsma
Branyan

Those 4 could have reset your farm club for years to come if dealt like they all should have been.

Beltre was leaving point blank. No doubts. Only good thing is we got Walker with the compensation pick though Walker is far from anything at this point.

Lopez led us with 96 RBI's at age 25 so you ask why trade him? He had bust written all over him. Body of Fred Flintsone and walked only 24 times in 653 PA's. Hit 25 homers that year, but never hit above 10 ever again. This isn't hindsight, it is reading the tealeaves as they say. He had bad peripherals and a decline was flashing Trade Him.

Aardsma was leader for us in saves with 38 and you can get a good return down the stretch for a guy like that and they are somewhat easy to replace in the off season.

Branyan was a free agent to be, 33, and just hit 31 homers for us in 431 AB's. Great return value at the deadline but instead we let him walk and then trade for him back the next season. Huh? We traded 2 prospects for him, he hits 15 more homers for us (10 with Indians that year) in only 205 AB's and let him walk again.

So the result of wishful thinking instead of living in reality? Went from 85 wins to 61 wins and no real value for the 4 tradeable players we lost.

So 2015 is the 2009 all over again (technically 2014 since that was our 'run' at the playoffs so hold tight, but unlike 2010 where we had no players to trade outside of Ichiro 2015 does give us a chance)

Felix- Can't trade w/o his approval. Next.

Cano- Yankees looking for a 2B and he loves and misses NY. Relief of salary and a prospect or two is better than 8.5 more years of Sir Poutsalot.

Cruz- His salary is easy to move with the production he has shown while playing for a bad team with a bad lineup playing in a bad ballpark. Any team would love him and his contract.

Trumbo- Even he has more value at the deadline unless he completely tanks between now and then.

Jackson- They have to decide to pay him big (bigger than most of us think he is worth) or deal him. He has value because teams will say Safeco crushed his sole and they can recharge him.

Happ- If you don't plan on re-signing him, then a LH starter at the deadline is valued more than any comp pick you may get for him. I would rather re-sign him, but do it now or deal him.

Ackley- They say Yanks want him. If true, deal him for a low level prospect and hope for the best. Remember we traded a low level prospect back in the day who has done pretty well for himself...David Ortiz.

Rodney- HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

So for me you play it out til July 15th-20th and then decide if you have something real and if not deal them all and collect as many players as you can. You all may not want a 'rebuild' but if you do it right it can be done while still challenging for the playoffs. Will it happen? Of course not...unless Jack is replaced within the next 30 days.

 

[wazzu31]

I will say the same thing I said about the team in Beltre's last year in 2009. They fooled themselves in believing they were a playoff contender and kept a few valuable trade pieces and got nothing in return.

Beltre
Lopez
Aardsma
Branyan

Those 4 could have reset your farm club for years to come if dealt like they all should have been.

Beltre was leaving point blank. No doubts. Only good thing is we got Walker with the compensation pick though Walker is far from anything at this point.

Lopez led us with 96 RBI's at age 25 so you ask why trade him? He had bust written all over him. Body of Fred Flintsone and walked only 24 times in 653 PA's. Hit 25 homers that year, but never hit above 10 ever again. This isn't hindsight, it is reading the tealeaves as they say. He had bad peripherals and a decline was flashing Trade Him.

Aardsma was leader for us in saves with 38 and you can get a good return down the stretch for a guy like that and they are somewhat easy to replace in the off season.

Branyan was a free agent to be, 33, and just hit 31 homers for us in 431 AB's. Great return value at the deadline but instead we let him walk and then trade for him back the next season. Huh? We traded 2 prospects for him, he hits 15 more homers for us (10 with Indians that year) in only 205 AB's and let him walk again.

So the result of wishful thinking instead of living in reality? Went from 85 wins to 61 wins and no real value for the 4 tradeable players we lost.

So 2015 is the 2009 all over again (technically 2014 since that was our 'run' at the playoffs so hold tight, but unlike 2010 where we had no players to trade outside of Ichiro 2015 does give us a chance)

Felix- Can't trade w/o his approval. Next.

Cano- Yankees looking for a 2B and he loves and misses NY. Relief of salary and a prospect or two is better than 8.5 more years of Sir Poutsalot.

Cruz- His salary is easy to move with the production he has shown while playing for a bad team with a bad lineup playing in a bad ballpark. Any team would love him and his contract.

Trumbo- Even he has more value at the deadline unless he completely tanks between now and then.

Jackson- They have to decide to pay him big (bigger than most of us think he is worth) or deal him. He has value because teams will say Safeco crushed his sole and they can recharge him.

Happ- If you don't plan on re-signing him, then a LH starter at the deadline is valued more than any comp pick you may get for him. I would rather re-sign him, but do it now or deal him.

Ackley- They say Yanks want him. If true, deal him for a low level prospect and hope for the best. Remember we traded a low level prospect back in the day who has done pretty well for himself...David Ortiz.

Rodney- HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

So for me you play it out til July 15th-20th and then decide if you have something real and if not deal them all and collect as many players as you can. You all may not want a 'rebuild' but if you do it right it can be done while still challenging for the playoffs. Will it happen? Of course not...unless Jack is replaced within the next 30 days.

Low blow, Ortiz at the time was nothing more than Gabby Guererro, nothing but raw talent. But everything else, ya, there isn't anything really to get in return besides Felix and Seager. Haap too but I doubt they'd get a top flight prospect with the clown as a GM. Woody wasn't great but Woody was the best Mariners GM ever and he made Jack look like he couldn't put together a junior high team.

 

[NWinAZ]

Low blow, Ortiz at the time was nothing more than Gabby Guererro, nothing but raw talent.

That was my whole point regarding trading Ackley. You won't get a real prospect for him, but a low level one that has a 1-1M chance of being a Ortiz because Ortiz at the time was a 1-1M chance of being a major league contributor.

 

[unlvmariners]

For me its too early to say one way or another. I don't think you have to decide yet and I think its possible to do a little bit of both. However I believe the Mariners can make upgrades fairly cheap and for players that are still under team control for a few more years. I really believe that simply getting rid of certain players makes the team better.

 

[cezero]

any discussion is moot

nintendo won't sell

 

[Anointed One]

any discussion is moot

nintendo won't sell

And that's the unfortunate part... This team isn't every going to be a serious contender with that ownership at the helm... Helk, I remember at one time hearing that the owner hadn't even watched a M's game before he passed away last year... I may have it wrong, can't remember the details on that...

 

[gohusk]

No. We need to get rid of Z after this season and get a GM that knows the right moves to make. We don't need that much. We need a veteran catcher because Zunino's a fucking bust that needs to be sent down and earn his way into the bigs, instead of being the catcher by default. We need to dump Ackley and get an average fucking outfielder. That's all we need in a lot of slots, AN AVERAGE PLAYER! But Z can't find an average fucking player to save his life.

 

[Cyder]

We are currently 7 games under .500. Last year, it took 88 wins to make the playoffs. We would need to go 64-43 the rest of the way to hit that number.

Argument for not selling at the trade deadline:
The Mariners have already invested too much in winning now. Nelson Cruz is hitting at an MVP level, he's not going to be this good next year. Seldom do you land a player that is hitting at his level. Also, adding Trumbo would've been pointless if you're not trying to win now. On paper, this team has the talent to go 64-43 the rest of the way. Do I think that will happen? I couldn't tell you. With the way the team has been playing, the pessimism in me wants to say no. But I look at some of the players in our lineup and compare it to our offensive production and it just doesn't make sense. Logically I have to assume something will turn around. All these one run games we've lost, if something had just gone in the Mariners favor in those games, perhaps our record would look a lot different. They've been competitive, just losing by a hair. Lastly, it's not like we have even got anything worth a damn in the past selling our players. Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, Doug Fister, Jarrod Washburn, none of them landed anything worth shit.

Argument for selling:
The team looks bad right now. Robinson Cano looks lost. Nelson Cruz is 34 and injury prone, his value won't be higher than it is right now. I'll happily admit that it looks like I was wrong with my prediction of roughly 25 HRs and a .260-.270 BA from him - but that still could be a reality either next year or the year after that. There is a strong argument that we won't be able to turn it around, and that 64-43 the rest of the way will be too difficult.

What does everyone think? Should we continue to try to win now? Or sell our pieces and start rebuilding again? I know it's obvious what the franchise is, and will continue to do, but I'm curious to see if anyone thinks we should sell.

The way this year is going it might not take 88 wins. Right now they're 5 in the loss column out of the 2nd wild card with around 100 games left. Not time to throw in the towel yet

 

[NWinAZ]

That is what they said in 2009. Worked out peachie for them. But again, no moves needed until July 15th. That should be the decision date, but if Jack is still there it is over because he is GM'ing for his life and there is no chance at another re-organization of the roster with him as GM this late into his tenure.

 

[wazzu31]

That is what they said in 2009. Worked out peachie for them. But again, no moves needed until July 15th. That should be the decision date, but if Jack is still there it is over because he is GM'ing for his life and there is no chance at another re-organization of the roster with him as GM this late into his tenure.

That's the furiating part of the organization, they need to make minor moves now somehow to put them in a position to be a big buyer at the deadline. No matter who is available there is not going to be one single person available to address the holes on the team. Last year they were 1 guy away, this year they need to make at least 3 huge splashes at the deadline..... to me its pointless to be a buyer if you're not making your team a WS contending team which they won't be.

 

[NWinAZ]

That's the furiating part of the organization, they need to make minor moves now somehow to put them in a position to be a big buyer at the deadline. No matter who is available there is not going to be one single person available to address the holes on the team. Last year they were 1 guy away, this year they need to make at least 3 huge splashes at the deadline..... to me its pointless to be a buyer if you're not making your team a WS contending team which they won't be.

I don't think they need 3 huge splashes. I said they needed 5 improvements made in the off season, but not really huge ones. Aoki for example would have been a small move that upgraded them. A veteran pitcher from Shields (don't consider him huge compared to say Lester) down to Volquez range. Smith is one of the moves that I liked making that 3. A reliever with closing experience for late innings to stretch it out (I mentioned Gregerson back in the off season). 5th move for me was a leadoff hitter with high OBP probably for CF or LF then moving Cruz to 1B/DH as well as Smith. They were probably going to have to trade for one of those.

1- Now I say go after a guy like Revere for LF if you are holding onto Jackson and lead Revere off. Or Burns A's or Blackmon Rockies (Revere is 17th in OBP (.322) while batting #1 in lineup, Blackmon 10th (.348), and Burns 6th (.358). Jackson is 20th (.309).

2- Sign Soriano for blowpen (won't cost us a player).

3- Pacheco as backup catcher and super utility guy. Career .317 OBP is a huge upgrade over Sucre's career .200 OBP. And he is free as well.

All three deals are cheap, good for this year and possibly next, and help us in small ways that add up to bigger production.

 

[unlvmariners]

1- Now I say go after a guy like Revere for LF if you are holding onto Jackson and lead Revere off. Or Burns A's or Blackmon Rockies (Revere is 17th in OBP (.322) while batting #1 in lineup, Blackmon 10th (.348), and Burns 6th (.358). Jackson is 20th (.309).

I am starting to really like the Revere idea. I think a player with the Revere skill set is exactly what the team needs. No more of these long ball hitting high K rate guys. It is killing our scoring opportunities.

 

[NWinAZ]

I am starting to really like the Revere idea. I think a player with the Revere skill set is exactly what the team needs. No more of these long ball hitting high K rate guys. It is killing our scoring opportunities.

Exactly. We have all the 'Big names' we need. We need the setup men now, and let's face it, if Cano/Cruz/Seager/Trumbo don't carry us we are screwed anyways. Room for improvement comes from LF (Ackley/Weeks) which Revere on paper does, and a better utility/backup catcher type like Pacheco brings. If you want a big move, I say that comes from a top end SP. I know we have had great numbers from out SP's, but do we have a legit #2 that you can count on IF you even make the playoffs? No.

 

[unlvmariners]

Exactly. We have all the 'Big names' we need. We need the setup men now, and let's face it, if Cano/Cruz/Seager/Trumbo don't carry us we are screwed anyways. Room for improvement comes from LF (Ackley/Weeks) which Revere on paper does, and a better utility/backup catcher type like Pacheco brings. If you want a big move, I say that comes from a top end SP. I know we have had great numbers from out SP's, but do we have a legit #2 that you can count on IF you even make the playoffs? No.

Agree.

 

[wazzu31]

I don't disagree with any of your proposals but those moves are moot IMO mid season. They the Mariners in a better position for a WC but a post season run IMO. Those moves are for the off season where they can gel enough that you can dump some prospects for the few big fish that are available at the deadline.