Series Thread: Second Round: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals

[elocomotive]

It's actually pretty interesting. They're seriously outshooting and outpossessing the Pens, but they're also, somehow, making it easy on Fleury. They're not just not finishing, they're not doing the things with their shots which lead to finishing. They've each fanned on rebounds with wide open cages, failed to elevate the puck with Fleury dead to rights on the doorstep, and shot a lot of good looks directly into Penguin skaters...

Uh, yep!!

Shots are not meaningless, but scoring chances are the better measure. In games 1 and 2, I think the scoring chances were at least closer to even, even if the Caps outshot the Pens. But in game 4, the Caps dominated that category. They haven't finished when they've had easy rebounds to put home. It's frustrating. But the score doesn't reflect the most chances, its a measure of finishes. And while more chances likely produces more finishes, it just doesn't always work that way.

Or to put it in the brilliant words of @ritari330 ... hockey is stupid.

 

[pixburgher66]

It's actually pretty interesting. They're seriously outshooting and outpossessing the Pens, but they're also, somehow, making it easy on Fleury. They're not just not finishing, they're not doing the things with their shots which lead to finishing. They've each fanned on rebounds with wide open cages, failed to elevate the puck with Fleury dead to rights on the doorstep, and shot a lot of good looks directly into Penguin skaters. Possession is great, shots are great, they're both obviously necessary, but it's just as necessary that shots be good. The Penguins aren't shooting a lot, and yeah, they've benefited from bounces, but when they've gotten their opportunities, they've gotten the puck through and on net, they've elevated the puck in close, and they've finished chances at empty cages. That's why they're scoring more despite possessing and shooting less.

Fleury has looked better than Holtby for the most part, but the gap isn't as big as the SV% would suggest. The Caps have done Fleury a lot of favors by shooting into his pads a lot. Pretty much every brilliant save he's made has been on a puck sliding across the ice. Most goalies will find a way to stop most of those pucks, not matter how dead-to-rights they appear.

Shot quality is definitely a thing. Now, that's not to say that the control of play hasn't been pretty much 75% Washington's, but Pittsburgh's defense has done a good job all postseason in keeping the shot attempts to the outside. Not quite as well this series as the Columbus series, but still has been a point of emphasis. Now I'm off to find those shot attempt location chart things...

 

[elocomotive]

He hasn't been bad, but he hasn't stolen anything. Even in game 3, he was good not great. It's one of those spots where you can't actively blame him, but he's also not being a difference maker. Sometimes you don't need a difference maker in net and can survive with league average, but when the guy at the other end is playing on PCP you need above average in your end.

Right... and the Caps aren't getting those difference makers. Holtby isn't being one. And a few of our scorers like Burakovsky aren't either. Hence, 3-1 and on life support, instead of 2-2 and hopeful.

 

[Darkstone42]

Uh, yep!!

Shots are not meaningless, but scoring chances are the better measure. In games 1 and 2, I think the scoring chances were at least closer to even, even if the Caps outshot the Pens. But in game 4, the Caps dominated that category. They haven't finished when they've had easy rebounds to put home. It's frustrating. But the score doesn't reflect the most chances, its a measure of finishes. And while more chances likely produces more finishes, it just doesn't always work that way.

Or to put it in the brilliant words of @ritari330 ... hockey is stupid.

You can pretty much see it in the goals the Pens have scored. Bounces, sure, but Hornqvist and Shultz last night scored by putting the puck right under the crossbar. If the Caps put some of their chances in tight to Fleury in that area, Fleury's having a much different series, and the Caps are likely up 3-1.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Pens have also gotten more and better looks on odd-man rushes. They're not giving many up, and they're doing a really excellent job defending them when they do. The Caps aren't recovering as well from mistakes in the neutral zone, and their defense on rushes has been pretty abysmal.

 

[elocomotive]

Shot quality is definitely a thing. Now, that's not to say that the control of play hasn't been pretty much 75% Washington's, but Pittsburgh's defense has done a good job all postseason in keeping the shot attempts to the outside. Not quite as well this series as the Columbus series, but still has been a point of emphasis. Now I'm off to find those shot attempt location chart things...

Here you go, Pix. All the Capitals "shots for" from Game 4:

 

[elocomotive]

You can pretty much see it in the goals the Pens have scored. Bounces, sure...

Yes... bounces please!!!

 

[pixburgher66]

Here you go, Pix. All the Capitals "shots for" from Game 4:

A lot more in the slot than I expected. I'm gonna have to find those heat maps, I know they exist and they're a cool visual tool.

 

[elocomotive]

A lot more in the slot than I expected. I'm gonna have to find those heat maps, I know they exist and they're a cool visual tool.

It was a joke, Pix. There's like a hundred shots there.

 

[pixburgher66]

 

[pixburgher66]

It was a joke, Pix. There's like a hundred shots there.

...that would explain the shot from the goal crease.

 

[elocomotive]

...that would explain the shot from the goal crease.

And the one from the stands. Wicked wrister from the guy in 102B-6!

 

[pixburgher66]

And the one from the stands. Wicked wrister from the guy in 102B-6!

Being fair, in watching the third period last night that map seemed pretty accurate.

 

[elocomotive]

View attachment 159169

Looks pretty god damn good. That Capitals' team must have won 5-2!

 

[pixburgher66]

Game three heat map:
Yeah, definitely the best effort from the Pens this series. And an L.

 

[pixburgher66]

Annnnnd, games 1 and 2. Game 1 they definitely didn't do a great job keeping shots outside. Rest of the series has been better. Kinda.

 

[elocomotive]

Annnnnd, games 1 and 2. Game 1 they definitely didn't do a great job keeping shots outside. Rest of the series has been better. Kinda.

Caps intensity near the net looks better in all four games. Overally, I'd say those maps look like 1 close game, 1 game likely won by the Pens, and 2 games likely won by the Caps.

Hence what D'stone said about just elevating those rebounds. But they haven't. So it is what it is.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Shot quality is definitely a thing. Now, that's not to say that the control of play hasn't been pretty much 75% Washington's, but Pittsburgh's defense has done a good job all postseason in keeping the shot attempts to the outside. Not quite as well this series as the Columbus series, but still has been a point of emphasis. Now I'm off to find those shot attempt location chart things...

View attachment 159171 View attachment 159172
Annnnnd, games 1 and 2. Game 1 they definitely didn't do a great job keeping shots outside. Rest of the series has been better. Kinda.

While you obviously can't draw any hard conclusions based entirely on those heat maps my first reaction is that it looks like the Penguins are allowing at least as many (problems more) chances from "good" areas as the Capitals are, in addition to the "bad" chances. That may help the Pens good/bad shot distance ratio but I'm not sure how much it helps their overall GAA.

 

[pixburgher66]

While you obviously can't draw any hard conclusions based entirely on those heat maps my first reaction is that it looks like the Penguins are allowing at least as many (problems more) chances from "good" areas as the Capitals are, in addition to the "bad" chances. That may help the Pens good/bad shot distance ratio but I'm not sure how much it helps their overall GAA.

Yeah, I'm not disagreeing. Those didn't back up my hypothesis much.

 

[forty_three]

It's actually pretty interesting. They're seriously outshooting and outpossessing the Pens, but they're also, somehow, making it easy on Fleury. They're not just not finishing, they're not doing the things with their shots which lead to finishing. They've each fanned on rebounds with wide open cages, failed to elevate the puck with Fleury dead to rights on the doorstep, and shot a lot of good looks directly into Penguin skaters. Possession is great, shots are great, they're both obviously necessary, but it's just as necessary that shots be good. The Penguins aren't shooting a lot, and yeah, they've benefited from bounces, but when they've gotten their opportunities, they've gotten the puck through and on net, they've elevated the puck in close, and they've finished chances at empty cages. That's why they're scoring more despite possessing and shooting less.

Fleury has looked better than Holtby for the most part, but the gap isn't as big as the SV% would suggest. The Caps have done Fleury a lot of favors by shooting into his pads a lot. Pretty much every brilliant save he's made has been on a puck sliding across the ice. Most goalies will find a way to stop most of those pucks, not matter how dead-to-rights they appear.

Same thing the Pens did to Columbus. Jackets couldn't get to the high percentage areas to get good shots away.

Then, when they pushed it and tried to force their way into those areas, the Pens reversed the puck and beat them on the odd man the other way. It's what they do.

And the few times you get a chance from a good spot, Fleury has gone all gumby and gotten something on the puck. Like a perfect storm.