Say good bye to A.J. Green

[augustisback003]

The Bengals have opted to let AJ play out his rookie contract.

excerpt~

Mike Sando of ESPN.com (Insider required) expects the Bengals to allow WR A.J. Green to play out the final year of his rookie contract rather negotiate a long-term now that he’s eligible to do so this offseason.

NFL Trade Rumors - Bengals Could Hold Off On Signing WR A.J. Green To A Long-Term Deal NFL Trade Rumors - |

 

[cincygrad]

What gives this guy's opinion any credibility? The Bengals have been fairly predictable in their strategy to try to lock up guys the year before they come up for a big contract. They did the same thing just last offseason with Atkins.

At the very least I expect they pick up the 5th year option. That would put all sorts of pressure on AJ's agent to do a long term deal. How could you let your client play one more season under a rookie deal and one season at a top 25 at the position deal? Makes more sense to try to get a somewhat watered down 'monster' deal now.

 

[saratogasharksuit]

 

[Be Weary of Query]

This isn't mutually exclusive to A.J. Green. It is the anticipated norm for the '11 class.
_______________________________________

The star-studded class of the 2011 draft had to put off guaranteed money when the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement was signed that year.

But three years later, when players such as Cam Newton, Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green and J.J. Watt have established themselves, don’t expect the top players from that draft to make serious money.

And maybe not for a while.

In a survey of 10 NFL general managers and/or salary cap specialists, all of them said they expect almost every player from the first round in 2011 to be tendered for a fifth year in their contract rather than sign a long-term extension this year. Simply put, a system that was advertised as a way to reward players who perform has instead turned into leverage against the players.

Or as one team executive put it: “Why wouldn’t you just put the option on them?”

A storm is brewing | National Football Post

 

[cincygrad]

This isn't mutually exclusive to A.J. Green. It is the anticipated norm for the '11 class.
_______________________________________

The star-studded class of the 2011 draft had to put off guaranteed money when the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement was signed that year.

But three years later, when players such as Cam Newton, Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green and J.J. Watt have established themselves, don’t expect the top players from that draft to make serious money.

And maybe not for a while.

In a survey of 10 NFL general managers and/or salary cap specialists, all of them said they expect almost every player from the first round in 2011 to be tendered for a fifth year in their contract rather than sign a long-term extension this year. Simply put, a system that was advertised as a way to reward players who perform has instead turned into leverage against the players.

Or as one team executive put it: “Why wouldn’t you just put the option on them?”

A storm is brewing | National Football Post

Yep. It provides tremendous leverage and also helps manage the cap.

It really makes you wonder what will become of those few running backs that do get drafted in the first round. 5 quality years is basically the entire career for most good running backs. No need to ever offer a big FA contract to those guys.

 

[alf8478]

Oh good, so now none of our cap space will be put to good use

 

[cincygrad]

Oh good, so now none of our cap space will be put to good use

Hobs is already floating the story that we spent more money than 30 NFL teams last year.

And that we were 16 million cash over cap.

Hobs is the best.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

What gives this guy's opinion any credibility? The Bengals have been fairly predictable in their strategy to try to lock up guys the year before they come up for a big contract. They did the same thing just last offseason with Atkins.

At the very least I expect they pick up the 5th year option. That would put all sorts of pressure on AJ's agent to do a long term deal. How could you let your client play one more season under a rookie deal and one season at a top 25 at the position deal? Makes more sense to try to get a somewhat watered down 'monster' deal now.

Franchising him is about $10 mil...he's 25 so I'm thinking a fair market value contract is 6/$60mil/$35mil g. If they can swing a deal for less than that I would jump on it. Then you can start thinking about Dalton, and Peko, etc...not going to be able to keep them all.

 

[DanBengalfan]

yea, signing these guys and then watching get injured is always fun.

he's going to want Calvin Johnson money (or his agent will demand it)

however, we managed to keep Chad Johnson around longer than expected, and even refused to trade him for high picks. we'll place even more value on AJ Green, I would expect.

 

[cincygrad]

Franchising him is about $10 mil...he's 25 so I'm thinking a fair market value contract is 6/$60mil/$35mil g. If they can swing a deal for less than that I would jump on it. Then you can start thinking about Dalton, and Peko, etc...not going to be able to keep them all.

I think most Bengal fans will give you Dalton and Peko for a bag of footballs.

But your point is true..... Signing AJ now for a reasonable deal would put the team in better position to deal with other young guys that are going to get paid. Burfict being the top priority and the young offensive players will want some money over the next 3 years.

 

[cdumler7]

Unfortunately for some of these guys under the new CBA it really doesn't reward good play. Such as those top tier guys can be given that 5th year plus then Franchise Tagged twice so they could go 7 years into their NFL careers before they actually see a long term money making contract. At best that puts the player around age 28 and maybe able to get one good contract if they haven't already had some major injuries like we are seeing in today's NFL.

 

[jwil007]

Green is going nowhere lol.... Pessimistic Bengals fans...LOL

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

I can't see the Bengals letting go a top 3 WR in the game.

 

[flamingrey]

Unfortunately for some of these guys under the new CBA it really doesn't reward good play. Such as those top tier guys can be given that 5th year plus then Franchise Tagged twice so they could go 7 years into their NFL careers before they actually see a long term money making contract. At best that puts the player around age 28 and maybe able to get one good contract if they haven't already had some major injuries like we are seeing in today's NFL.

True for some positions. Franchising a QB or WR can be cap killing. I think the 1st year franchise is top 5 average pay at the position. I believe the 2nd year franchise is something like top 3 average pay at the position.

Also, if teams start accepting the 5th year option and allowing very good players like Green make it to their 5th year on their rookie salary, they will only be guaranteeing that they lose those players to FA in their prime. Sure they can franchise once or twice, but that doesn't always make financial sense to teams.

I'd expect we might see teams play hardball with this first group of players, but I'd imagine in another few years, teams and players will settle on a middle ground after teams start losing their best 1st round players.

 

[cincygrad]

True for some positions. Franchising a QB or WR can be cap killing. I think the 1st year franchise is top 5 average pay at the position. I believe the 2nd year franchise is something like top 3 average pay at the position.

Also, if teams start accepting the 5th year option and allowing very good players like Green make it to their 5th year on their rookie salary, they will only be guaranteeing that they lose those players to FA in their prime. Sure they can franchise once or twice, but that doesn't always make financial sense to teams.

I'd expect we might see teams play hardball with this first group of players, but I'd imagine in another few years, teams and players will settle on a middle ground after teams start losing their best 1st round players.

I think it's just a negotiating ploy. I bet you see many of these guys sign big deals late in the summer. A good agent will take a little less guaranteed for a big payday 2 years early.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think it's just a negotiating ploy. I bet you see many of these guys sign big deals late in the summer. A good agent will take a little less guaranteed for a big payday 2 years early.

Agreed. Also, the earlier you can sign now, the more likely it will be that you can get a re-structured deal or a new contract with money before you get too old.

If you play the waiting game, you may only get 1 big contract and then injury/age can set in and really take a big hit on your pay-day.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I think most Bengal fans will give you Dalton and Peko for a bag of footballs.

But your point is true..... Signing AJ now for a reasonable deal would put the team in better position to deal with other young guys that are going to get paid. Burfict being the top priority and the young offensive players will want some money over the next 3 years.

LOL...don't blame the fans on either player, but I think Dalton gets done because the price should not be top shelf. I'm curious to see where these 2nd tier younger QBs are going to fall on their 2nd contracts.

I saw the post about how the '11 class might be handled...imo franchising a player that you want to sign long term is not a good idea...I think lame duck players are always going to look out for themselves...I can't blame them in some way...and you might not get their best effort...imo AJ is a top 5 WR...I'm not sure how much better he will get with Dalton, but top 5 is not bad.

 

[cdumler7]

True for some positions. Franchising a QB or WR can be cap killing. I think the 1st year franchise is top 5 average pay at the position. I believe the 2nd year franchise is something like top 3 average pay at the position.

Also, if teams start accepting the 5th year option and allowing very good players like Green make it to their 5th year on their rookie salary, they will only be guaranteeing that they lose those players to FA in their prime. Sure they can franchise once or twice, but that doesn't always make financial sense to teams.

I'd expect we might see teams play hardball with this first group of players, but I'd imagine in another few years, teams and players will settle on a middle ground after teams start losing their best 1st round players.

I understand it doesn't always make the best sense for a team but I am looking at the Broncos as a great example in Von Miller being 1 strike away from being suspended for a year. It makes sense to keep him on one year contracts as to not destroy the team later if he does mess up. I think this also gives teams time say they put a deal on the table and the player doesn't like it then the team can say well then you will play a 5th year at a bargain price. They come back the next year and still don't like the deal then say well I guess we will franchise you. Yes this means they could lose the player but gives them some leverage to keep the 1st deal down saying you don't sign this then we will just have you on one year deals the next 2 years meaning you are losing millions in the process. Now the Franchise Tag price is usually very nice but again the team can say you risk serious injury another year without a big contract. Just gives them a little more pull come contract talks.

 

[futballiscool]

Franchising him is about $10 mil...he's 25 so I'm thinking a fair market value contract is 6/$60mil/$35mil g. If they can swing a deal for less than that I would jump on it. Then you can start thinking about Dalton, and Peko, etc...not going to be able to keep them all.

I'd be surprised if he's not looking for a deal worth much closer to 15 million per year.

6 years/60 million is a bargain

 

[cdumler7]

I'd be surprised if he's not looking for a deal worth much closer to 15 million per year.

6 years/60 million is a bargain

That would be cheaper than Mike Wallace's deal if I remember right with Miami. Yeah can't see him settling for less than what Mike Wallace made even if he was overpaid.