Sam Howell is apparently our starter for 2023

[Stymietee]

Sty, I admittedly dont know anything about college football, and I dont follow college football.

I do know, however, that Howell lost most of his weapons while still starting at unc, which caused his performance to suffer.

Now, from what I saw in preseason (irrelevant, really) and vs the cowboys (relevant, but small sample size), SH looks like he could be a starter in the nfl.

There are always caveats.
Then again, there are always caveats antithetical to your positions too.


If Howell was a first round pick at some point then he could / should be considered as such.

In any case, either EB can help him develop or he cant.

Actually Howell's best year is pretty similar to his worse but you are correct when stating that he lost most of his weapons before his final season. Did that loss contribute to his dip in performance?... probably, but that wasn't the major reason why he dropped from a likely first-round selection to what most said was a second day 3rd-round draftee. (I had him as a late 4th to middle 5th-round pick during his best year)
For the record, the biggest complaint about Howell has been a yet to be proven ability to improve. Perhaps that had a lot to do with the system he was in where the task required him to go with his first read or von broken plays, improvisation. We actually saw this in the Dallas game for better and worse. His first pass (TD) was his first option. The interception... also his first read and he forced it into triple coverage.
I do agree that EB will be charged with developing Howell, unfortunately, doing so will be an OJT venture complete with the immense growing pains that comes with being essentially a rookie starter. I know that we've got a long way to go before the new season begins, but I wonder what you and our fellow board members reject as a successful season for this young man? Right now, I predict numbers like 55 to 58% completion rate, about 3100 to 3300 passing yards, 14 TDS, 16 picks and a handful of fumbles lost. Your thoughts?

 

[Stymietee]

Thinking about 5th round QB, I went back to look at the best 5th-round or later QBs of all time and how they fared in their first season starting.
Compare their numbers to what I've projected Sam Howell's first season to be... Remember that this list is of the top-ten best-drafted 5th-round QBs or later of all time. ( no walk-ons)

Howell in 2023...(projected by me) 55 to 58% completion rate, about 3100 to 3300 passing yards, 14 TDS, 16 picks, and a handful of fumbles lost.

1. 2001 Tom Brady ... 63.9% completion rate 2,427 passing yards with 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, 12 fumbles.​

2.1970 Roger Staubach... 53.66% completion rate, 542 passing yards with 2 TDs 8 interceptions, and 4 fumbles.​

3. 1957 Bart Starr... 54.4% completion rate, 1,489 passing yards with 8 Tds, 10 Interceptions, 4 fumbles.​

4. Joe Theismann (4th round)​

​

5. 1988 Mark Rypien... 54.8% completion rate, 1730 passing yards with 18 TDs, 13 interceptions, 6 fumbles.​

6. 2001 Matt Hasselbeck... 54.8% completion rate, 2023 passing yards with 7 TDs, 8 interceptions, 6 fumbles.​

7. 1997 Brad Johnson... 60.8% completion rate, 3036 passing yards with 20 TDs, 12 interceptions, 4 fumbles.​

8. 1990 Rich Gannon... 52.1% completion rate, 2278 passing yards with 16 TDs, 16 interceptions, 10 fumbles.​

9. 1995 Mark Brunell... 58.1% completion rate, 2168 passing yards with 15 TDs, 7 interceptions, and 5 fumbles.​

10. 2003 Marc Bulger... 63.2% completion rate, 3845 passing yards with 22 TDs, 22 interceptions, and 8 fumbles.​

 

[deanpet21]

If the plan does involve not retaining Payne then I would also franchise him and trade him to Chicago for Fields or consider a sign-and-trade involving the same principals. They'll also want something else and I haven't settled on what I'd be willing to part with in draft capital.

The Bears should trade down and stick with Fields. With the Bears trade down they will have a ton of picks to try to trade for Payne. So yes, a franchise tag an a trade for Payne is in the cards.

 

[chillerdab]

I’d trade payne for the number one overall pick in the draft. Probably not enough for chicago, but on the other hand payne was a number one pick, and had a fabulous season. I might throw in a fourth rounder or lower too.

Then I’d turn around and trade that pick to the highest bidder for multiple picks, and fix multiple holes, in a deep draft for te, cb, lb.

 

[deanpet21]

I’d trade payne for the number one overall pick in the draft. Probably not enough for chicago, but on the other hand payne was a number one pick, and had a fabulous season. I might throw in a fourth rounder or lower too.

Then I’d turn around and trade that pick to the highest bidder for multiple picks, and fix multiple holes, in a deep draft for te, cb, lb.

Three-round 2023 NFL mock draft 1.0: Six trades spice up Round 1; Bears involved in three

www.nfl.com

This mock shows the Bears actually trading down twice and still getting the defensive player that they want. With all of those picks the Bears acquire they should have enough draft capital to trade for Payne.

A first would be great for Payne, but I think a 2nd and a 3rd is more likely.

This mock also shows us getting Skoronski which would be huge.

 

[Stymietee]

The Bears should trade down and stick with Fields. With the Bears trade down they will have a ton of picks to try to trade for Payne. So yes, a franchise tag an a trade for Payne is in the cards.

If they trade down, they literally put themselves in a QB contract pickle, and here's why...
They have to rebuild, ok, retool and it's going to take at least two seasons to get where they want to be. Fields is a great asset and if I were in their place I'd do all that I could to keep him, but sometimes time isn't an asset and you have to do what's best by time and circumstance.

By the time they are ready to rock and roll, Fields will be in his contract renewal year (4th) they will have to pay him the going rate for NFL QBs or face the real possibility of paying him that 5th-year option (a minimum 20M). OTOH, drafting someone like Bryce Young resets their timeline and allows them to rebuild without concerns over having to pay their QB.

Neither, you nor I are wrong it just depends on what condition they project Fields to be in when their rebuild/retooling is complete and they are poised to go after that Lombardi. Right now he's two years into taking a beating and has missed time, while the team has major needs almost everywhere else. They have almost 100M to spend in free agency and 8 draft picks in this upcoming draft, 5 of them are in the first four rounds. It's a tough decision for Ryan Poles to make.

 

[chillerdab]

Three-round 2023 NFL mock draft 1.0: Six trades spice up Round 1; Bears involved in three

www.nfl.com

This mock shows the Bears actually trading down twice and still getting the defensive player that they want. With all of those picks the Bears acquire they should have enough draft capital to trade for Payne.

A first would be great for Payne, but I think a 2nd and a 3rd is more likely.

This mock also shows us getting Skoronski which would be huge.

There’s no way I would trade Payne for a second or third rounder. A second rounder this year and a first rounder next year? Sure.
But not just a second rounder. Payne is an all-pro level first round talent. If that’s all that is offered, I’d franchise him and see if mathis and ridgeway are ready to step up.

 

[deanpet21]

There’s no way I would trade Payne for a second or third rounder. A second rounder this year and a first rounder next year? Sure.
But not just a second rounder. Payne is an all-pro level first round talent. If that’s all that is offered, I’d franchise him and see if mathis and ridgeway are ready to step up.

I said 2nd AND 3rd rounder but ok. Hey maybe some team offers a 1st like Indy did with Buckner from SF. They gave a mid-first for him.

 

[deanpet21]

If they trade down, they literally put themselves in a QB contract pickle, and here's why...
They have to rebuild, ok, retool and it's going to take at least two seasons to get where they want to be. Fields is a great asset and if I were in their place I'd do all that I could to keep him, but sometimes time isn't an asset and you have to do what's best by time and circumstance.

By the time they are ready to rock and roll, Fields will be in his contract renewal year (4th) they will have to pay him the going rate for NFL QBs or face the real possibility of paying him that 5th-year option (a minimum 20M). OTOH, drafting someone like Bryce Young resets their timeline and allows them to rebuild without concerns over having to pay their QB.

Neither, you nor I are wrong it just depends on what condition they project Fields to be in when their rebuild/retooling is complete and they are poised to go after that Lombardi. Right now he's two years into taking a beating and has missed time, while the team has major needs almost everywhere else. They have almost 100M to spend in free agency and 8 draft picks in this upcoming draft, 5 of them are in the first four rounds. It's a tough decision for Ryan Poles to make.

b/c the team is so bad I would take the trade down and maybe two trade downs to acquire picks. You can't give up on the guy you gave the #7 pick overall pick for after 2 seasons when you have the worst team in the league. Not fair to Fields at all. Worry about the big contract in 3rd season b/c they will pick up his 5th year option if he plays well. Just my POV.

I think we can get some picks from the Bears for Payne, so I want the Bears to trade down.

 

[Stymietee]

b/c the team is so bad I would take the trade down and maybe two trade downs to acquire picks. You can't give up on the guy you gave the #7 pick overall pick for after 2 seasons when you have the worst team in the league. Not fair to Fields at all. Worry about the big contract in 3rd season b/c they will pick up his 5th year option if he plays well. Just my POV.

I think we can get some picks from the Bears for Payne, so I want the Bears to trade down.

I get it, but we are still in pretty desperate need of a QB, EB needs a real chance to be successful and that just ain't happening with Sam Howell. So, if Green Bay plans to move Rodgers then Love isn't a young option. I'm not sure what they plan to do in San Fran so I don't entertain any ideas about going after young Mr. Lance. There are no other QBs that I would want them to go after outside of the draft because of cost, age, poor fit, and/or wear and tear.

BTW: this (2023) is Fields' 3rd year and talk of new contracts often begins at the conclusion of the 3rd season, especially for QBs. Here's the current draft order: I don't see a viable trade partner that's going to give them the haul that they want, so I'll ask you...

Here is the first-round draft order: Who do they trade down with and in exchange for what?

1. Chicago Bears (3-14)

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1)

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)

5. Seattle Seahawks, via the Denver Broncos (5-12)

6. Detroit Lions, via the Los Angeles Rams (5-12)

7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

9. Carolina Panthers (7-10)

10. Philadelphia Eagles, via the New Orleans Saints (7-10)

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

12. Houston Texas, via the Cleveland Browns (7-10)

13. New York Jets (7-10)

14. New England Patriots (8-9)

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1)

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

18. Detroit Lions (9-8)

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8)

21. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

22. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)

23. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

25. New York Giants (9-7-1)

26. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

27. Buffalo Bills (13-3)

28. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

29. New Orleans Saints, via San Francisco 49ers (13-4) through Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos

30. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

 

[skinz2winz]

As of this moment, we must admit that Washington has the worse QB in their division and one of the worse in their conference because he's untried, untested, and graded out as a 5th-round draft pick. We're either looking at the next iteration of Tom Brady or most likely still in search of a franchise QB.

If the Bears are willing to move on from Fields to select another unproven rookie QB, I'm not certain anymore than a 2nd would I be willing to part with. How about Payne for Fields?

 

[countryroads316]

If the Bears are willing to move on from Fields to select another unproven rookie QB, I'm not certain anymore than a 2nd would I be willing to part with. How about Payne for Fields?

Fields is just not that good stay away

 

[deanpet21]

I get it, but we are still in pretty desperate need of a QB, EB needs a real chance to be successful and that just ain't happening with Sam Howell. So, if Green Bay plans to move Rodgers then Love isn't a young option. I'm not sure what they plan to do in San Fran so I don't entertain any ideas about going after young Mr. Lance. There are no other QBs that I would want them to go after outside of the draft because of cost, age, poor fit, and/or wear and tear.

BTW: this (2023) is Fields' 3rd year and talk of new contracts often begins at the conclusion of the 3rd season, especially for QBs. Here's the current draft order: I don't see a viable trade partner that's going to give them the haul that they want, so I'll ask you...

Here is the first-round draft order: Who do they trade down with and in exchange for what?

1. Chicago Bears (3-14)

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1)

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)

5. Seattle Seahawks, via the Denver Broncos (5-12)

6. Detroit Lions, via the Los Angeles Rams (5-12)

7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

9. Carolina Panthers (7-10)

10. Philadelphia Eagles, via the New Orleans Saints (7-10)

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

12. Houston Texas, via the Cleveland Browns (7-10)

13. New York Jets (7-10)

14. New England Patriots (8-9)

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1)

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

18. Detroit Lions (9-8)

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8)

21. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

22. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)

23. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

25. New York Giants (9-7-1)

26. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

27. Buffalo Bills (13-3)

28. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

29. New Orleans Saints, via San Francisco 49ers (13-4) through Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos

30. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

I want to give Howell a chance. I don't think we are desperate for a QB like an RG3 trade. Plus, EB likes Howell. Houston, Colts, and Raiders will try to move up to get their QB. There will be good offers for that #1 pick. As far as compensation who knows what teams will be willing to give up for Young. We know teams overpay in draft capital to get a QB in the draft. So, I think the Bears will get a nice offer. The Bears only have one pick in rounds 1-3 and 2 fourths. Not exactly huge draft capital right now for them.

 

[wilwhite]

Thinking about 5th round QB, I went back to look at the best 5th-round or later QBs of all time and how they fared in their first season starting.
Compare their numbers to what I've projected Sam Howell's first season to be... Remember that this list is of the top-ten best-drafted 5th-round QBs or later of all time. ( no walk-ons)

Howell in 2023...(projected by me) 55 to 58% completion rate, about 3100 to 3300 passing yards, 14 TDS, 16 picks, and a handful of fumbles lost.

1. 2001 Tom Brady ... 63.9% completion rate 2,427 passing yards with 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, 12 fumbles.​

2.1970 Roger Staubach... 53.66% completion rate, 542 passing yards with 2 TDs 8 interceptions, and 4 fumbles.​

3. 1957 Bart Starr... 54.4% completion rate, 1,489 passing yards with 8 Tds, 10 Interceptions, 4 fumbles.​

4. Joe Theismann (4th round)​

​

5. 1988 Mark Rypien... 54.8% completion rate, 1730 passing yards with 18 TDs, 13 interceptions, 6 fumbles.​

6. 2001 Matt Hasselbeck... 54.8% completion rate, 2023 passing yards with 7 TDs, 8 interceptions, 6 fumbles.​

7. 1997 Brad Johnson... 60.8% completion rate, 3036 passing yards with 20 TDs, 12 interceptions, 4 fumbles.​

8. 1990 Rich Gannon... 52.1% completion rate, 2278 passing yards with 16 TDs, 16 interceptions, 10 fumbles.​

9. 1995 Mark Brunell... 58.1% completion rate, 2168 passing yards with 15 TDs, 7 interceptions, and 5 fumbles.​

10. 2003 Marc Bulger... 63.2% completion rate, 3845 passing yards with 22 TDs, 22 interceptions, and 8 fumbles.​

You can't compare most of those with today's very-QB-friendly rules. If Howell puts up your projected numbers the Cs will have one of the worst Os in the NFL. Those are exactly the kind of numbers that Zach Wilson put up per-game, and he's done. Howell won't be a true rookie any more.

He'll have to break 60% completion and keep his turnovers under control to not be a disaster (unless he makes crazy plays with his legs). Small yardage and TD totals are acceptable.

 

[Stymietee]

If the Bears are willing to move on from Fields to select another unproven rookie QB, I'm not certain anymore than a 2nd would I be willing to part with. How about Payne for Fields?

That is one option but it's extremely rare that a one-for-one trade involving a DL and QB has ever happened. They would probably want a little something extra thrown in, but I'm not sure what that would be. There's no doubt that this is going to be the biggest decision that the Bears have to make since firing Mike Ditka. (1993)

For the record, there are two things that I don't want our team to continue doing.

1. botching prime assets and allowing them to leave without getting real value in return.
2. Entering another season without a QB and to me, this includes Sam Howell who has the potential to be "adequate" but nothing else.

 

[skinsdad62]

Actually Howell's best year is pretty similar to his worse but you are correct when stating that he lost most of his weapons before his final season. Did that loss contribute to his dip in performance?... probably, but that wasn't the major reason why he dropped from a likely first-round selection to what most said was a second day 3rd-round draftee. (I had him as a late 4th to middle 5th-round pick during his best year)
For the record, the biggest complaint about Howell has been a yet to be proven ability to improve. Perhaps that had a lot to do with the system he was in where the task required him to go with his first read or von broken plays, improvisation. We actually saw this in the Dallas game for better and worse. His first pass (TD) was his first option. The interception... also his first read and he forced it into triple coverage.
I do agree that EB will be charged with developing Howell, unfortunately, doing so will be an OJT venture complete with the immense growing pains that comes with being essentially a rookie starter. I know that we've got a long way to go before the new season begins, but I wonder what you and our fellow board members reject as a successful season for this young man? Right now, I predict numbers like 55 to 58% completion rate, about 3100 to 3300 passing yards, 14 TDS, 16 picks and a handful of fumbles lost. Your thoughts?

the question for me with howell is can he process quickly , if he can then you have something , if he cant then he is wince

 

[Stymietee]

I want to give Howell a chance. I don't think we are desperate for a QB like an RG3 trade. Plus, EB likes Howell. Houston, Colts, and Raiders will try to move up to get their QB. There will be good offers for that #1 pick. As far as compensation who knows what teams will be willing to give up for Young. We know teams overpay in draft capital to get a QB in the draft. So, I think the Bears will get a nice offer. The Bears only have one pick in rounds 1-3 and 2 fourths. Not exactly huge draft capital right now for them.

Honestly, what do you expect from Howell? Washington is foolhardy to go into the season putting all of their hopes onto him. If anything he needs more time and that's one thing that they aren't giving him. I wrote and posted this after the Fitzpatrick signing, after the Wince trade and once again now, Washington does not have a starting caliber QB on its roster, and I'm not sure how anyone doesn't see this as desperation time! Who can say at this moment, with any degree of certitude that Sam Howell isn't the worse QB in the division? How about the conference? Things change but right now we have to contend with what is and not what we hope it to be. Seriously, aren't you exhausted from being sold hope year after year after year? Yes, Howell deserves a chance, but so do those other 52 guys in the locker room!!

There are 4 or 5 QB projected to go in the top nine picks, at least two of these teams will draft one and the other (likely the Raiders) will go after someone like Rodgers or Jimmy G.

The Bears have 8 draft picks in this upcoming draft, 5 of them are in the first four rounds. and let's not forget that $93M in cap space for free agency.

 

[Stymietee]

the question for me with howell is can he process quickly , if he can then you have something , if he cant then he is wince

He's never had to do that and I've pointed out examples in that Dallas game to support the idea that it's going to be a difficult learning process at this stage in his career. Can he do it? I dunno!! Would it be wise to prepare for both success and failure...absolutely!!

 

[deanpet21]

Honestly, what do you expect from Howell? Washington is foolhardy to go into the season putting all of their hopes onto him. If anything he needs more time and that's one thing that they aren't giving him. I wrote and posted this after the Fitzpatrick signing, after the Wince trade and once again now, Washington does not have a starting caliber QB on its roster, and I'm not sure how anyone doesn't see this as desperation time! Who can say at this moment, with any degree of certitude that Sam Howell isn't the worse QB in the division? How about the conference? Things change but right now we have to contend with what is and not what we hope it to be. Seriously, aren't you exhausted from being sold hope year after year after year? Yes, Howell deserves a chance, but so do those other 52 guys in the locker room!!

There are 4 or 5 QB projected to go in the top nine picks, at least two of these teams will draft one and the other (likely the Raiders) will go after someone like Rodgers or Jimmy G.

The Bears have 8 draft picks in this upcoming draft, 5 of them are in the first four rounds. and let's not forget that $93M in cap space for free agency.

Howell had a lot of success in college. He was a projected as a 1st round pick the year before he came out. If we protect him and he picks up EB's system, we should be ok. The guy has the arm and the legs to be successful. The Dalass game impressed me with Howell b/c the Cowboys had their defensive starters in basically the whole game, and he did fine. I know it's one game, but he flashed. Right now, the Bears do not have a lot of draft capital. An extra 4th in the draft and that's it. IF we won games with TH, we can defentily win games with Howell.

 

[deanpet21]

He's never had to do that and I've pointed out examples in that Dallas game to support the idea that it's going to be a difficult learning process at this stage in his career. Can he do it? I dunno!! Would it be wise to prepare for both success and failure...absolutely!!

I know you want to the team trade for Fields. lol. EB said he likes Howell. That has to mean something.