Sagarin ELO CHESS 9/22/2013

[4down20]

So UGA gets a bump over Clemson partly because they finished in the top-5 in the 2012 season although it is the 2013 season and they have already beaten UGA? Seems legit.

It's just placeholder data that gets removed as more data on the current season gets collected. It will have no effect on rankings later in the season.

It's not a big deal at all. Without it, his rankings would be much much worse.

 

[Camfantasy]

It's just placeholder data that gets removed as more data on the current season gets collected. It will have no effect on rankings later in the season.

It's not a big deal at all. Without it, his rankings would be much much worse.

What's the point in having rankings this early at all if the criteria used to interpret the data right now is just going to be replaced later?

 

[4down20]

What's the point in having rankings this early at all if the criteria used to interpret the data right now is just going to be replaced later?

Entertainment?

Plus it's not that far off really. For this point in the season, it's perfectly fine.

I think of it as being like a blurry picture. Early in the year it's really fuzzy, but you can kinda see teams that are in different areas. Then as more data comes in over the season, each week it gets a bit more clear, a bit more clear, and finally at the end of the year you get a nice picture.

 

[Camfantasy]

Entertainment?

Plus it's not that far off really. For this point in the season, it's perfectly fine.

I think of it as being like a blurry picture. Early in the year it's really fuzzy, but you can kinda see teams that are in different areas. Then as more data comes in over the season, each week it gets a bit more clear, a bit more clear, and finally at the end of the year you get a nice picture.

To each their own I guess. Sagarin's rankings this early in the season with data that isn't even going to be used later on just doesn't seem entertaining to me. All seems like pretty much bullshit that reflects poor judgement and biased opinions this early....then that leads to poor judgement used when there actually is enough evidence to go from. Not that most of it matters anyways in the short scheme of things, but it can be mildly important in the long run.

 

[occupant]

To each their own I guess. Sagarin's rankings this early in the season with data that isn't even going to be used later on just doesn't seem entertaining to me. All seems like pretty much bullshit that reflects poor judgement and biased opinions this early....then that leads to poor judgement used when there actually is enough evidence to go from. Not that most of it matters anyways in the short scheme of things, but it can be mildly important in the long run.

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

Well, Sagarin can suck my corn dog cock, motherfucker.

He has UGA and LSU fairly evenly matched, actually. But he has home field advantage at 5.23 points.
If the game was at LSU then LSU would be favored by 4.32 points.

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

What's the point in having rankings this early at all if the criteria used to interpret the data right now is just going to be replaced later?

I would imagine some gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as one thing to consider before placing a wager......

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

I also like to look at Sagarin's ratings to compare conference strength. Unfortunately this year he has split conferences into their divisions....so SEC West is listed separately from SEC EAST.

Right now, Sagarin has overall conference strength at:
1. SEC
2. PAC 12 (about 1pt underdog to the SEC)
3. Big 12 (about a 3 pt underdog to the SEC)
4. B1G (about a 5 pt underdog to the SEC)
5. ACC (about a 6 pt underdog to the SEC)
6. AAC (about a 11 pt underdog to the SEC)

 

[Camfantasy]

I also like to look at Sagarin's ratings to compare conference strength. Unfortunately this year he has split conferences into their divisions....so SEC West is listed separately from SEC EAST.

Right now, Sagarin has overall conference strength at:
1. SEC
2. PAC 12 (about 1pt underdog to the SEC)
3. Big 12 (about a 3 pt underdog to the SEC)
4. B1G (about a 5 pt underdog to the SEC)
5. ACC (about a 6 pt underdog to the SEC)
6. AAC (about a 11 pt underdog to the SEC)

So pretty much all of the 5 major BCS conferences are reasonably similar right? A six point difference on his scale isn't huge is it? If so, that is pretty much what I have been saying for years. Overall difference of conference depth isn't as huge as the media makes it out to be. It is similar. No the ACC isn't as good as the SEC most years, but there isn't some major gap there either. All of these conferences put some good and bad football teams on the field each year.

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

Sagarin Predictions for this week's games for top 25 teams.

Ole Miss at Bama: Bama by 20.96 points
ACTUAL RESULT: Bama by 25

Cal at Oregon: Oregon by 29.65 points
(still in progress) but Oregon is currently winning by 45

Wake at Clemson Clemson by 25.26 points
ACTUAL RESULT Clemson by 49

Wisc at Ohio St Ohio State by 5.31 points
ACTUAL RESULT Ohio State by 7

Stanford at Wash St Stanford by 3.31 points
ACTUAL RESULT Stanford by 38

LSU at UGA UGA by 6.14 points
ACTUAL RESULT UGA by 3

FSU at BC FSU by 14.61 points
ACTUAL RESULT FSU by 14

TAMU at Ark TAMU by 6.20 points
ACTUAL RESULT TAMU by 12

Ok St at WVA Ok St by 15.01 points
ACTUAL RESULT WVA by 9

South Carolina at UCF South Carolina by 1.19 points
ACTUAL RESULT South Carolina by 3

Oklahoma at ND ND by 0.46 points
ACTUAL RESULT Oklahoma by 14

Miami at USF Miami by 16.19 points
ACTUAL RESULT Miami by 29

AZ at Wash Wash by 10.11 points
ACTUAL RESULT Wash by 18

UF at Ky UF by 12.04 points
ACTUAL RESULT UF by 17

Fresno St at Hawaii Fresno St by 9.53 points
ACTUAL RESULT Fresno St by 18


And just because I'm curious...
Va Tech at GT GT by 7.64 points.
ACTUAL RESULT Va Tech by 7

Of the games with top 25 teams (plus the GT-Va Tech game)
Sagarin correctly picked the winner 12/15 times for 80%.

I will leave it to others to judge how accurate to the margin of victory his predictions were.

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

So after all that hullabaloo about how bad Sagarain's ratings are, and now no discussion when actual results are compared to predicted results????

 

[4down20]

So after all that hullabaloo about how bad Sagarain's ratings are, and now no discussion when actual results are compared to predicted results????

80% is good.