Sagarin ELO CHESS 9/22/2013

[occupant]

1 Oregon
2 Alabama
3 Baylor
4 Florida St.
5 Oklahoma St.
6 Georgia
7 UCLA
8 LSU
9 Texas A&M
10 Oklahoma
11 Stanford
12 South Carolina
13 Florida
14 Clemson
15 Arizona
16 Ohio St.
17 Louisville
18 Miami (FL)
19 Wisconsin
20 Washington
21 Mississippi
22 Texas Tech
23 Missouri
24 Arizona St
25 Georgia Tech
26 TCU
27 Notre Dame
28 Maryland
29 UCF
30 Boise St
31 Nebraska
32 Auburn
33 Michigan
34 USC
35 Vanderbilt
36 Penn St
37 Texas
38 Northwestern
39 Miss St
40 Virginia Tech

 

[HuskerinBig10]

Nebraska, Texas, and TCU on the list?

Surely there have to be three teams better than those three. BYU beat Texas and is 1-2, which is the same record as TCU.

 

[cane_man]

His computer has a virus

 

[OregonDucks]

Baylor #3...??

 

[TonyTheGator]

ELO?

 

[Sox33OSU]

LMFAO why is this idiot even relevant? Nothing about his rankings make sense except for Oregon at #1.

 

[WhiteMamba]

and this guy makes up part of the cpus 1/3 of deciding the NATTY

He had FSU around the 20s all year last season

 

[Sox33OSU]

and this guy makes up part of the cpus 1/3 of deciding the NATTY

He had FSU around the 20s all year last season

I know! How the hell is that possible?!?

 

[charlie42s]

and this guy makes up part of the cpus 1/3 of deciding the NATTY

He had FSU around the 20s all year last season

Sagarin's share is approximately 1/18 in deciding the BCS NC team as there are 6 computer ranking systems. The highest and lowest rankings are dropped and the remaining 4 are averaged.
I've thought Sagarin's system has sucked for years. He has never revealed the details of his system.
I prefer Massey's. Here is nearly every system. The Matrix,College Football Ranking Composite

 

[LucklessPadresFan]

We're ranked too high at 34.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Sagarin's share is approximately 1/18 in deciding the BCS NC team as there are 6 computer ranking systems. The highest and lowest rankings are dropped and the remaining 4 are averaged.
I've thought Sagarin's system has sucked for years. He has never revealed the details of his system.
I prefer Massey's. Here is nearly every system. The Matrix,College Football Ranking Composite

I know, that's what I said, he makes up a part of the cpus. Whatever way you cut it.

 

[charlie42s]

Clemson #14 is undefeated and beat Georgia which is #6. smh

 

[osubuckeye89]

How can you have Baylor #3 but Ohio State #16?

I know Ohio States OOC schedule blows, but Baylors is not any better

 

[Codaxx]

Nebraska, Texas, and TCU on the list?

Surely there have to be three teams better than those three. BYU beat Texas and is 1-2, which is the same record as TCU.

-

its week 3 computer polls are garbage right now. Just not enough data to give accurate information

 

[charlie42s]

-

its week 3 computer polls are garbage right now. Just not enough data to give accurate information

Sagarin's is a mess. He gives every team a rating and alters it slightly depending upon game results. Evidently head-to-head results don't mean much.

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

You want Sagarin's better ranking system, look at his "Predictor" standings.

That one factors in margin of victory and home field advantage. So for example, when Clemson beat UGA by 3 points at Clemson.....and since home field advantage is worth approximately 3 points, effectively they tied. Since then Clemson has beaten SC State and NC State, and UGA beat South Carolina and North Texas.

North Texas is about on par with SC State, but South Carolina is a tougher opponent than NC State, so if you're trying to predict future results, UGA would be ranked higher.

The "Elo Chess" rankings were sort of forced on Sagarin back when the "powers that be" decided they didn't want margin of victory to influence rankings by the computers for BCS purposes. They didn't want teams just running up the scores to exploit some loophole in a formula somewhere.

 

[WABLTY]

Not enough data for computer rankings to matter yet.

 

[charlie42s]

You want Sagarin's better ranking system, look at his "Predictor" standings.

That one factors in margin of victory and home field advantage. So for example, when Clemson beat UGA by 3 points at Clemson.....and since home field advantage is worth approximately 3 points, effectively they tied. Since then Clemson has beaten SC State and NC State, and UGA beat South Carolina and North Texas.

North Texas is about on par with SC State, but South Carolina is a tougher opponent than NC State, so if you're trying to predict future results, UGA would be ranked higher.

The "Elo Chess" rankings were sort of forced on Sagarin back when the "powers that be" decided they didn't want margin of victory to influence rankings by the computers for BCS purposes. They didn't want teams just running up the scores to exploit some loophole in a formula somewhere.

I'll bet that Sagarin predicted that Georgia would beat Clemson.

Does anyone evaluate his predictive system against game results?

 

[Sox33OSU]

I'll bet that Sagarin predicted that Georgia would beat Clemson.

Does anyone evaluate his predictive system against game results?

Excellent question

 

[4down20]

I'll bet that Sagarin predicted that Georgia would beat Clemson.

Does anyone evaluate his predictive system against game results?

It doesn't matter if it predicted Georgia to beat Clemson. It will correct after either way. And anything above 70% is pretty good and as good as most humans. It's never going to be 100% accurate. Nevermind teams that should win and don't win, etc.