Series Thread: Rays at Rangers for the last series of 2016, 9/30-10/2

[Nightcrawler]

Let's win the game tonight and clinch home field throughout the playoffs. I don't even care who we play in the ALDS. I couldn't care less about the worthless ALDS. My mentality is World Series title or bust. And to get there, we'll have to play good teams in the ALCS and World Series. Plus I don't think there is a team we should be avoiding or hoping for, because you play a dangerous game doing that and often bite off more than you can chew. Bring on whatever team! There's not a team in the AL who I think the Rangers couldn't take, especially with guaranteed home field advantage.

I respect your confidence in the team and I hope you're right. My gut tells me that we perform well against any prospective opponent ( not saying we'll win) except for the blue Jays.

I'll give you guys my in depth analysis and you can poke holes in it if you want.

AL Playoff teams ( record against)

Red Sox 3-3
Blue Jays 3-4
Indians 5-2
Orioles 4-3
Tigers 4-2
Mariners 12-7
Astros ( we destroy them)

Every single team we have a winning record or better except for the Jays.

Last years playoff series:

The blue Jays were victorious. They know they can beat us. Inevitably, that would give them a bunch of confidence going into a playoff series against us.

Last year one of our 2 wins could be attributed to Gallardo. Without him, we were 1-3 against the Jays. I know some people will say we have Darvish now, but one can't assume he would have won the game or that he matches up well with them.

Batting style / approach:

The Jays are regarded as a patient hitting team with a lot of pop. One thing that our pitching staff has struggled with this season is issuing walks. I think the Jays are the most likely team to work 2 walks in an inning and take us deep for a 3 run homer or grand slam.

Jays pitching:

This team has struggled repeatedly with Estrada. His off speed stuff always seems to confuse our hitters. The Jays are currently using a 6 man rotation and they are lacking the Ace, but seem to have a staff loaded with high end #2 and #3 starting pitchers. If anyone would be able to offset the wild card disadvantage of having to use their "#1" pitcher, it is them. The Tigers and Mariners would suffer a much steeper drop off.

Home field:

The Jays would not see going to Arlington as a disadvantage. They won both games on the road against us last year.

I just think a series with Cleveland, Baltimore, or Detroit would have a higher chance of success. The choice this team is making and has apparently made is that they want home field throughout. I'd argue that the strength of home field is over valued, because the HFA in the World Series already resides with the hosting AL team. I view it as only being helpful in the ALCS, but I'd pick the trade off of trying to get an easier opponent in the ALDS. I think the 5 game round is a total crap shoot and the best team doesn't always win. That series is more susceptible to rapid momentum swings and the inferior opponent could get a lucky break. In a 7 game series, the team who is better built, with more depth, usually wins. I think the Rangers could expose depth issues on the Red Sox and Indians if we make it that far.

 

[donaldson79]

I liked the part where he said Banny was able to get the players to run through a wall like Johnny and Wash, but also knew how to have them prepared.

Yes indeed.....Nadel, without saying as much, certainly indicated he's a pretty big Jeff Banister fan.

I especially enjoyed the part of the interview when he was talking about Vin Scully ruining the myth that it is some kind of a jinx to mention that a pitcher has a no hitter along the way. How anyone believes that junk to begin with is beyond me, but Scully certainly proved it wrong by mentioning it once the 7th inning rolled around in all of his 23 no hitters that he called.

Thank you for bringing this up! I laughed out loud at the silliness which is made about one of those "unwritten rules" and in Vin I trust. Isn't it amazing that a guy of Scully's age sounds so great, and is still on top of it all? Good for him to leave the great game on his terms too.

 

[WilltheThrill]

I respect your confidence in the team and I hope you're right. My gut tells me that we perform well against any prospective opponent ( not saying we'll win) except for the blue Jays.

I'll give you guys my in depth analysis and you can poke holes in it if you want.

AL Playoff teams ( record against)

Red Sox 3-3
Blue Jays 3-4
Indians 5-2
Orioles 4-3
Tigers 4-2
Mariners 12-7
Astros ( we destroy them)

Every single team we have a winning record or better except for the Jays.

Last years playoff series:

The blue Jays were victorious. They know they can beat us. Inevitably, that would give them a bunch of confidence going into a playoff series against us.

Last year one of our 2 wins could be attributed to Gallardo. Without him, we were 1-3 against the Jays. I know some people will say we have Darvish now, but one can't assume he would have won the game or that he matches up well with them.

Batting style / approach:

The Jays are regarded as a patient hitting team with a lot of pop. One thing that our pitching staff has struggled with this season is issuing walks. I think the Jays are the most likely team to work 2 walks in an inning and take us deep for a 3 run homer or grand slam.

Jays pitching:

This team has struggled repeatedly with Estrada. His off speed stuff always seems to confuse our hitters. The Jays are currently using a 6 man rotation and they are lacking the Ace, but seem to have a staff loaded with high end #2 and #3 starting pitchers. If anyone would be able to offset the wild card disadvantage of having to use their "#1" pitcher, it is them. The Tigers and Mariners would suffer a much steeper drop off.

Home field:

The Jays would not see going to Arlington as a disadvantage. They won both games on the road against us last year.

I just think a series with Cleveland, Baltimore, or Detroit would have a higher chance of success. The choice this team is making and has apparently made is that they want home field throughout. I'd argue that the strength of home field is over valued, because the HFA in the World Series already resides with the hosting AL team. I view it as only being helpful in the ALCS, but I'd pick the trade off of trying to get an easier opponent in the ALDS. I think the 5 game round is a total crap shoot and the best team doesn't always win. That series is more susceptible to rapid momentum swings and the inferior opponent could get a lucky break. In a 7 game series, the team who is better built, with more depth, usually wins. I think the Rangers could expose depth issues on the Red Sox and Indians if we make it that far.

There is a LOT wrong with your analysis here.

First of all, you are relying on using last year's playoff performance as a measure of success. Almost the entire team is different from last year. Gomez, Beltran, Lucroy, Desmond, and Mazara are all new, not to mention that Elvis is a totally different hitter than last year. You can throw last year's performance out the window. Furthermore, our games against them this season were early in the season. This is a much different team, as is theirs, from when we last saw them.

Secondly, they are NOT using a 6-man rotation. That you think that shows you haven't been keeping up. Their rotation consists of: Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Liriano, and Sanchez. Dickey hasn't started since the middle of September, and that was only because Liriano was out of the rotation for a while due to ineffectiveness. Their starting pitching isn't special. They will likely throw out a playoff rotation of: Stroman, Happ, Liriano, and Estrada. We've beaten both Stroman and Happ before. I'd have to look up what our record against Liriano is, but even if it's great, at best they would have an advantage over us in only 2 out of the 4 matchups. And their bullpen is a mess right now. Their best set-up man, Benoit, just tore his calf in the Yankees brawl and is out for the season. Jason Grilli has been an absolute dumpster fire for them, and Roberto Osuna has started to struggle a bit down the stretch. In fact, theirs is one of the few playoff bullpens where I would say we have a definite competitive advantage over.

Thirdly, you are not taking into account how the Jays are CURRENTLY performing and made up. Jose Bautista is having a down year, so much so that everyone is saying he has likely cost himself millions in the upcoming free agent market. Josh Donaldson is playing hurt with a bad hip. Their announcers have even said he looks to be in a lot of pain as he runs the bases. Devon Travis also hurt himself in the Yankees melee. This is not the same offensive juggernaut the Rangers ran into last year.

Lastly, and this one is important, is that the Blue Jays HAVEN'T CLINCHED YET. There is no guarantee that they are even an option for us as an opponent. They are tied with Baltimore and Detroit is only 1 game behind. If Boston takes 2 out of 3 or sweeps against them, they could be out altogether. And even if they make it in, that still doesn't guarantee that they would be THE Wild Card team. Baltimore or Detroit could just as easily defeat them in the 1-game playoff.

It makes no sense for us to avoid getting home field advantage just because we MIGHT play the Blue Jays, a team who is much different than last year (not to mention we are too).

There isn't one single AL team the Rangers should fear. NOT ONE. Every single AL playoff team has flaws (including our Rangers). We are much better served by getting that home field advantage (where we are a MUCH better team) and letting the chips fall where they may as far as opponent goes.

Even with our current pitching struggles, there is not another #1/#2/C battery combo in the AL-- not for Boston, Cleveland, Seattle, Detroit, Baltimore, or Toronto-- that I would take over Hamels/Darvish/Lucroy. And that, along with home field advantage, gives us a HUGE advantage.

 

[donaldson79]

and this one is important,

You're selling yourself a little short here sir........You've made some very good points which were, IMO anyway, "important."

We are much better served by getting that home field advantage (where we are a MUCH better team) and letting the chips fall where they may as far as opponent goes.

Really.....beat the team in front of ya and stop all the worry of "manipulation" and "what if" about who we play. First and foremost, play and play up to the moment. Screw the competition. If we do what we can, whoever "they is," won't matter.

 

[saddles]

I am not sure if this was discussed on the last thread or not. If it was discussed I missed it.

Carlos Gomez and the Scout: Rangers win 8-5

As Thornburg warmed up, Lucroy could be seen in the dugout at the middle of a huddle of Rangers jerseys. Elvis Andrus and Carlos Gomez were in the middle of the confab, and as it broke, Lucroy could be seen making a motion with his wrist, his middle, ring, and pinky fingers in the air.

“Yeah, they asked me what he had,” Jeffress said later. “I saw Thornburg coming in, and I’ve played with Thorny a long time. So I went in there and said ‘this is what he looks like; 4-seam fastball, changeup, 12-6 curveball’.”

The three-fingered motion Lucroy had been making was mimicking Thornburg’s changeup.

“He’s pitching up in the zone with his fastball; his curveball, he likes to get over for a strike, just…” Lucroy shrugged. “You know.”

No big deal.

Elvis Andrus strode to the plate and watched a strike, then a ball. Then, the Rangers shortstop drove a ball up the middle. DeShields scored, and with two on and the game now tied, Carlos Gomez stood in.

“I played in Milwaukee for 5½ years,” Gomez said later of the conversation “I had Thornburg for three, so I know how he pitches, (but) Lucroy knows more than me, because he’s been behind the plate, so he told us what we’re looking for (...) It worked out.”

Indeed it did. With the count 2-1, Gomez launched his second three-run home run in as many days. It broke the short-lived tie and brought the game to its final score of 8-5. The home run was another no-doubter to left-field, this one measuring in at 418 feet. Gomez dispatched with his bat with something akin to gleeful violence. It wasn't so much a bat flip as it was a bat slam. a quick-wrist fling to the floor, as if to say "get away from me, bat! Don't you know I have bases to run?!"

The pitch, by the way, was a changeup.

 

[donaldson79]

Hey.....sir saddless..........are you sure the number of no-no's Vin called was 23? I thought I heard 26.

It doesn't matter for shit.......just wondering if that's the "number" for sure.

 

[DT LUNA]

Needed that 3 pitch K

 

[DT LUNA]

Well DT I guess nobody is talking tohight

 

[Duane1952]

I'm lurking DT.

 

[DT LUNA]

Way to look Ian. Advance him Carlos

 

[Duane1952]

Taking to many called third strikes early.

 

[Duane1952]

Good job as usual Adrian.

 

[DT LUNA]

Taking to many called third strikes early.

Beltran was awful. Meanwhile Beltre isn't with a rbi single

 

[DT LUNA]

Choo's back

 

[DT LUNA]

Mitch K'd on ball four

 

[DT LUNA]

96 mph K. #4

 

[DT LUNA]

Damn DES. Error #2.

 

[DT LUNA]

Yu is saving Ian's ass tonight.

 

[DT LUNA]

Pretty quite in here

 

[DT LUNA]

Beltran BOMB 2-0